Gold NY Session Strategy 11/19: Will up to 4162Gold Daily Plan – SMC Outlook (Nov 20)
Framework: CHoCH – BOS – FVG – POI – Premium/Discount Model
1. Market Context
Gold continues to recover after the sharp drop earlier this week. Price is now approaching the Premium zone of the current bullish swing and tapping into H1 supply. The market shows:
Buyers still in short-term control
Momentum weakening as price reaches resistance
A corrective pullback into Discount is likely before any further expansion
2. Structural Overview (SMC Logic)
🔻 Overall Market Structure
A key BOS formed around 4090–4100 → confirms short-term bullish structure
Follow-up CHoCH signals continuation of the intraday uptrend
Price is moving toward the upper FVG + Supply Zone (4160–4162)
🔸 Orderflow Notes
Strong reaction at the 4140 area → clear presence of passive Sell Limit absorption
Demand POI at 4091–4089 held exceptionally well → main bullish mitigation zone
3. Trading Zones (POI)
✅ BUY Zone (Discount Area)
4091 – 4089
Demand + previous CHoCH + fib 1.272 confluence
Ideal low-risk long setup within Discount
Suggested SL: 4087
BUY Scenario:
Price retraces to POI → shows bullish reaction → long toward Premium.
❗️ SELL Zones (Premium Area)
Aggressive Sell Zone:
4143 – 4145
SL: 4147
Optimal Sell Zone:
4160 – 4162
Major supply + imbalance + fib 2.618 extension
Highest probability for reversal
SL: 4165
4. Trade Scenarios
📌 Primary Scenario (High Probability)
Price retraces into 4091–4089 Demand
Look for CHoCH/BOS confirmation on lower timeframe
Enter BUY → target 4143 → 4160
→ Classic SMC model: Buy from Discount → Sell from Premium.
📌 Alternative Scenario
If price rallies straight into 4143–4162 without retracement:
ONLY enter SELL when a clear bearish CHoCH or strong rejection forms
Target: 4100 → 4090
5. Intraday Bias
→ Bullish in Discount zones – Bearish in Premium zones.
Trade based on orderflow → Do not chase price in the middle range.
6. Summary
BUY: 4091–4089 (SL 4087) → TP: 4140 – 4160
SELL:
• 4143–4145 (SL 4147)
• 4160–4162 (SL 4165)
Wait for confirmation at each POI; avoid mid-range entries.
