#niftyGood morning! As of July 27th, the global market is starting positively, with GIFT Nifty showing a +75 point increase from the previous session. The market seems to be moving in a range without significant differences compared to before. It's moderately bullish, meaning there's an upward bias. We might see a gap-up opening. If the market stays within the range, it's likely to continue going up without a big drop. However, be cautious of a potential correction if it sharply rejects around the fib level of 78%.
Niftyintradaysetup
26 Jul ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty | A trend reversal in store?Today’s gap up opening and the race towards 19825 took out my stop loss. From last Friday we were short on Nifty, this stop loss hit proves to me that the bears are short lived in our market.
Nifty50 went up 147pts ~ 0.75% from the prev. close enough to take out the 19800 levels where I had placed the protective stop. The main reason for the rally was the boost in RIL, ITC and LT.
Until the high of the day was formed - NiftyIT was also supporting it. And at 11.15 NiftyIT started reversing whereas banknifty which was starting to fall reversed. The contra move in NiftyIT and BankNifty was like a script from a tamil movie (perfectly musical). The final effect was Nifty50 was able to hold its ground.
At around 11.30, I was not able to agree with the technicals and took a smaller position - bought 19600 PE @ 10.5. Now I have 2 opposite positions of long and short on Nifty50 carried forward to the expiry tomorrow. Most likely the PE position will expire worthless or I may have to convert it into a ratio spread.
The negation of the short-term bearish trend is visible + the island formation due to the gap up. If we get a mega gap down tomorrow, i.e. a quick fall below the 19650 levels - I will be more inclined to ride on the bear wave and consider today’s price action as a fake.
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Please comment with your thoughts, opinion or bias, I will respond with mine!
Nifty Trade setup for 05-07-2023Nifty important intraday levels to watch for 25-07-2023
#Support: 19660
Short if candle closes below 19660.
#resistance: 19760
Long if candle closes above 19760.
#Targets on downside after break of support.
Target 1= 19600
Target 2= 19500
#Targets on upside after break of resistance.
Target 1= 19820
Target 2= 19870
Remember each level will act as a support and resistance individually so there is a probability of reversal on either side. Please do your own research before initiating any trade. Always keep stoploss in order to protect your capital.
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#niftyGood morning! As of July 26th, the global market is starting positively, with GIFT Nifty showing a +12 point increase from the previous session. The market seems to be moving in a range without significant differences compared to before. It's moderately bullish, meaning there's an upward bias. We might see a slight gap-up opening. If the market stays within the range, it's likely to continue going up without a big drop. However, be cautious of a potential correction if it breaks below the immediate support zone
25 Jul ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty - Starting to Breakdown?Nifty had a decent recovery between 13.35 to 14.55 where it gained back 89pts ~ 0.46% after it fell 96pts ~ 0.49% from the open. The moves were exactly similar to the financial service index - because it was caused by the FinNifty components. This casts the doubt that it could be an expiry related move rather than a natural pullback.
For better clarity we would need to wait for tomorrow’s trade. Ideally Nifty was poised to continue the falling chat pattern as confirmed by the diverging moving average slope. I almost thought 19600 will get taken out for good today, but that's exactly the area from which it reversed and gained up all the lost points.
It will be interesting if tomorrow’s trade happens below the 19670 levels which might give the 19707 levels a temporary resistance zone. I still continue to hold the bearish view unless proved wrong by taking out the immediate swing high.
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#nifty"Good morning! As of July 25th, the global market is indicating a positive start, with GIFT Nifty showing a +45 point increase. There is no significant difference from the last session, suggesting a range-bound market structure. The market's nature is moderately bullish, and there is a possibility of a slight gap-up opening. If it sustains within the range, we can expect the market to continue without a correction. However, a correction may occur if it breaks below the immediate support zone."
24 Jul ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty Bearish trend continuationNifty Analysis
I was quite happy to see the last 45 to 60mts of trade happening in the direction of the trend. For days unknown we used to have dip buyers who come in at 14.30 to 15.00 and then change the dynamics all together.
If you notice we had a good downtrending pattern developing on the 5mts TF. Ever since we broke down from 21st July, bears were able to form a lower low & lower high till now. Whether it replicates on the higher time frames only time will tell.
We had 3 important price actions today
1. Gap down open and then a gap-closing rally till 10.30 wherein we recovered 79pts
2. Leg1 of downfall from 10.40 to 11.55 wherein we shaved off 113pts
3. Leg2 of downfall from 14.05 to close where we lost 118pts
I was quite worried when the market started to recover from 12.00 to 14.00 - because if this swing high goes above the day’s range then I was almost sure the dip buyers will do the rest in the closing hour. Fortunately bears had a good day today, after a long long gap probably. Pushing down the prices on Nifty & Banknifty has been pretty difficult for the last 1 year!
Bearish TrendLine
Ideally the trend line should start from the point where we fell, but with the data so far it's hard to connect the dots. Once the pattern starts building up for a few more days - we will re-draw it with more accuracy.
As it stands if Nifty keeps making lower lows and lower highs then its easy for bears to push down the prices. If we negate that pattern either with a news flow or event or even a reluctance to fall - we will lose the momentum to the bulls! We will continue going short till the swing high is not violated.
Nifty Trade Setup for 24-07-2023
Nifty important intraday levels to watch for 24-07-2023
#Support: 19706
Short if candle closes below
#resistance: 19820
Long if candle closes above
#Targets on downside after break of support.
Target 1= 19600
Target 2= 19480
#Targets on upside after break of resistance.
Target 1= 19880
Target 2= 19980
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#niftyGood morning! As of July 24th, the global market is indicating a negative start, with GIFT Nifty showing a -40 point decrease. The market nature is moderately bullish, but there is a possibility of a slight gap-down opening. after that If it takes a pullback, then the range will continue; however, if the gap-down sustains, we can expect correction continuation. That should break the immediate support zone.
21 Jul ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty Quite a predictable fall today!Nifty Analysis
If you had read yesterday’s report, I am sure you would have anticipated the gap down today & the profit taking that followed. Today’s price action may not be a structural change or the start of the next bear rally (at least too early to comment). What I feel is, we have out run the fundamentals & need to give some time for it to catch up so that the next peak can be conquered.
We opened gap down at 19798 and tried to close the distance, but had rejection near the 19880 levels. From there we fell strongly till 12.25 with no signs of retracement or reversal. Once the green candle started forming at 12.30, I drew the Fibonacci retracement levels.
I kept yesterday’s close level as 1 and the intraday low formed at 12.25 as 0 - the purpose was to find if we have a continuation in downfall or a reversal to close the gap.
I did share this on nifty minds - see here.
Was this exercise worth it? Absolutely yes.
1. We saw the reversal at 09.25 came at 61.8% retracement level
2. The lower high formed between 13.30 to 14.00 came at 38.2% retracement level
3. The fall that followed and the break of the 0 level creating a new lower low almost gives us a good confidence that the fall in nifty is quite serious.
Trades taken: I did go short as soon as markets opened to catch the moving bus. This was purely a gut decision and nothing to do with positional strategy. At 12.30 as soon as we had the first reversal of the day, I booked the existing short position & rolled down the option to catch more action. This new position was in loss till 14.15 after which we started falling below the low of the day, assessing this situation - I decided to carry forward the position overnight.
Nifty Expiry special trade setup ! Nifty important intraday levels to watch for 20-07-2023
#Support: 19760
Short if candle closes below 19760
#resistance: 19580
Long if candle closes above 19850
#Targets on downside after break of support.
Target 1= 19720
Target 2= 19680
#Targets on upside after break of resistance.
Target 1= 19910
Target 2= 20000
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#NiftyNifty - If the market forms a consolidation pattern between today's low and the Fibonacci level of 78%, then we can expect a rally continuation. On the other hand, if it rejects around the 61% to 78% Fibonacci level, we can expect a correction, with a potential reach towards the Fibonacci levels of 38% to 50%.
20 Jul ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty, kissing distance of 20000Nifty is up an impressive 526pts ~ 2.71% between the last expiry & today. This is by far the most impressive breakout by Nifty. From the last known resistance level of 18880, nifty is up 6.07% ~ 1142pts in a span of 3 weeks.
Guess what? My analysis went deeply wrong this monday when I exited the long position, I had a neutral call for this week and was expecting a rally by month end. I am not sad that I lost the opportunity cost of unwinding a long position on Nifty, but because my analysis failed to see this possibility.
I was really hoping Nifty will consolidate this week, seeing through the RELIANCE demerger and make its play next week. As we are the apex point, there are no resistances & moving up was the easiest way!
Daily Analysis
Nifty was looking weak in the opening minutes, maybe because of the RELIANCE demerger effect.
During the pre-open period till 09.15, Reliance settled for a price of 945 & we were all shocked. However the real pre-open for Reliance & Jio Financial price discovery was till 10.00 AM and it opened at a price of 2580 which was more or less what the participants were anticipating.
Let us not take the credit out of Nifty50, after 10.00 Nifty made up the lost ground in a quick rally by 10.30. That was only a start. Nifty made an intraday swing of 232pts ~ 1.18% and the momentum was building up!.
In fact it was banknifty that triggered this outperformance today, nifty was quick to catch up on this opportunity & take out its all time highs. The brand new ATH is 19991.85 just 8.15pts for the 20000 milestone.
I stopped my long call when nifty was at 19540, from there we have gone up 450 pts. This is the first time my own analysis went against me, probably I may not get over that anytime soon!
Whats next?
Infosys declared its results and the signs of slowdown are quite evident. We have a situation where the banks are having good results overshadowing the rise in NPAs and ITs having lower than expected profit potential. Even the results from HUL was not looking good prima facie - but I am not quite sure if these factors will stop the bull run on Nifty! Remember markets can remain irrational till you are ….
#niftyGood morning! As of July 20th, the global market is indicating a positive start with GIFT Nifty showing a +2 points increase, resulting in a moderate bullish market sentiment. There is no significant difference compared to the last session, and there is a possibility of a slight gap-up opening. If the market maintains its structure, we can expect a rally continuation with minor corrections. However, in the event of a sharp decline in the initial market, we can anticipate only a minor correction.
FASP levels for Nifty 20/07/2023The FASP for Nifty is listed for 20-07-2023. You can add this levels to your trade setup for better results. This should not be the only indicator but an additional tool to increase your winning possibilities.
What is Fibolysis Anchor SupRes Points(FASP)?
It is a unique level arrived by using Fibonacci Retracement , Fibonacci Extension , Standard Pivot levels under various Timeframes. It is an extensively analyzed level to draw the support and resistance levels for the next day. You can use these levels along with your trade setup to increase your winning odds.
Validity of the levels: 1 Day
How to use these levels?
The three levels on both sides are usually easily achievable. The Targets above are bit difficult to achieve in a single trading session. I use this fact to write intraday positions and to buy options.
Color Coding: Green is regular support and buying area, Red is strong exit area
Disclaimer: This is shared in the interest of educational purpose and for knowledge enhancement. Kindly refer it in the same light. I am not responsible for any profits or loss incurred based on this information.
19 Jul ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty | 87pts surge in 45mNifty Analysis
Today turned out to be a non-eventful day for me. Looking at the premiums yesterday, I came prepared to hunt for similar option prices. Unluckily the premiums did not have that wildly swings like yesterday. In the process I ended up not taking what was available 😢
We opened gap up today and then had an up move till 09.55, from there it fell 110 pts ~ 0.56% till 11.15. This fall was quite interesting as most of the candles were red indicating we could have a momentum pick-up later in the day. But by 11.55 the selling pressure was over and nifty climbed back pretty strongly.
One strong reason would be attributed to the reversal in NiftyIT index. It had that perfect V shape today and this sharp reversal helped Nifty scale back up.
Nifty already took out the ATH by 09.55 i.e 19841.65, and what happened in the last 45mts was unbelievable yet again. It formed a new ATH of 19847.15 in the closing minutes showing brute bullish strength.
Ideally Nifty50 should be scaling further heights because there are no visible resistance levels. Similarly few of the bulls could think about profit booking & it could result in a shallow retracement. Usually I prefer to wait out these periods, because as an option seller - I prefer to trade between support & resistance levels. Whereas an option buyer could design a strategy to play the break-out & break-downs.
#NiftyGood morning! As of July 19th, the global market is showing a positive start (GIFT Nifty +5) with a moderate bullish market sentiment. There is a possibility of a slight gap-up opening. If the market sustains its structure, we can expect a range market to continue rallying. On the other hand, if the initial market experiences a sharp decline, we can anticipate a minor correction.
FASP levels for Nifty 19/07/2023The FASP for Nifty is listed for 19-07-2023. You can add this levels to your trade setup for better results. This should not be the only indicator but an additional tool to increase your winning possibilities.
What is Fibolysis Anchor SupRes Points(FASP)?
It is a unique level arrived by using Fibonacci Retracement , Fibonacci Extension , Standard Pivot levels under various Timeframes. It is an extensively analyzed level to draw the support and resistance levels for the next day. You can use these levels along with your trade setup to increase your winning odds.
Validity of the levels: 1 Day
How to use these levels?
The three levels on both sides are usually easily achievable. The Targets above are bit difficult to achieve in a single trading session. I use this fact to write intraday positions and to buy options.
Color Coding: Green is regular support and buying area, Red is strong exit area
Disclaimer: This is shared in the interest of educational purpose and for knowledge enhancement. Kindly refer it in the same light. I am not responsible for any profits or loss incurred based on this information.