11 Sep ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty - @20000 a day to remember 🎇🎇
Nifty Analysis
Recap from yesterday: For Monday I wish to change the status from bullish to 50% bullish & 50% neutral — that’s because I would like to wait for this news flow to get priced in. The euphoria and FOMO alone should drive Nifty50 to new ATHs, however I do not wish to get into new bullish positions till then.
The 50% neutral, 50% bullish stance was taken to give some time for the traders to digest the I-CRR news. Seems like nobody was interested to wait. As soon as we opened - the intention to go up was very clear - how so? Just look at the OTM put prices. All the signs of aggressive put writing with near ATM credit and far OTM debit. Since this pattern was holding throughout the day, I personally went ahead with some long positions.
In today’s price action, there were no reversal or pullback attempts and all the sectors were in green - a rarity usually. And as per DOW theory - if all the sectors are in green - its a true indicator of trend.
On the 1hr TF - just notice the pace at which Nifty50 regained the lost points. It took 42 days and 1hr for Nifty to fall from 19991 to 19223 and just 10 days & 6 hrs to regain it. Which also indicates its a structural bull market.
For tomorrow I wish to continue with the bullish stance, although I would like to take some safety net via long PUTS as we have the CPI (Inflation) data coming up this week.
Recap from yesterday: For Monday I wish to change the status from bullish to 50% bullish & 50% neutral — that’s because I would like to wait for this news flow to get priced in. The euphoria and FOMO alone should drive Nifty50 to new ATHs, however I do not wish to get into new bullish positions till then.
The 50% neutral, 50% bullish stance was taken to give some time for the traders to digest the I-CRR news. Seems like nobody was interested to wait. As soon as we opened - the intention to go up was very clear - how so? Just look at the OTM put prices. All the signs of aggressive put writing with near ATM credit and far OTM debit. Since this pattern was holding throughout the day, I personally went ahead with some long positions.
In today’s price action, there were no reversal or pullback attempts and all the sectors were in green - a rarity usually. And as per DOW theory - if all the sectors are in green - its a true indicator of trend.
On the 1hr TF - just notice the pace at which Nifty50 regained the lost points. It took 42 days and 1hr for Nifty to fall from 19991 to 19223 and just 10 days & 6 hrs to regain it. Which also indicates its a structural bull market.
For tomorrow I wish to continue with the bullish stance, although I would like to take some safety net via long PUTS as we have the CPI (Inflation) data coming up this week.
