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Niftyit

20 Mar ’24 — Nifty50, 220pts recovery? Weak hands will spoil itNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish⬇️ Recap from yesterday: “Once we breached the support, there was no attempt to retrace. One thing is missing though — momentum. The weak hands still hold the shorts..” 4mts chart Nifty went ahead and broke the recent swing low. The lowest point today was 21710. From the open till 10.47 - the index played as per script, but what needs attention today is the 220pts ~ 1.02% recovery. I am reiterating how bad the situation is when “weak hands” hold the CE shorts. Thankfully we did not cut through the 21913 resistance, otherwise whatever bearish setup we had created would have split open. There is also mention of BankNifty falling, but needing to fall more. The index only lost 0.16% today, that's not enough to break through the PUT shorters. Momentum is a great thing in technical analysis, the trend starts only when the momentum is in favor because if things stay as it is - markets will recover. On the 63mts time frame, Nifty is perfectly positioned. Today’s down move was received well among the traders, just when we thought a bigger movement was going to happen - the reversal took place. Tomorrow is the weekly expiry and things could get interesting. We still maintain the bearish stance below 21913. 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
18 Mar ’24 — Is Nifty above or below 22051? Check Chart closelyNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish⬇️ Recap from yesterday: “The only reason we pushed through the resistance yesterday was because of NiftyIT. And today NiftyIT started with cuts of -0.9%. Do you agree with me now that the main villain is NiftyIT which is preventing Nifty50 for a smooth directional trend?” 4mts chart Is Nifty above or below 22051? I must change the stance from bearish to neutral if it's above. If it's below - then the bearishness continues. As per the chart, Nifty closed at 22051 while the weighted average close was 22055. For some reason or another, I did not feel like punching manual orders today, I just let the algo orders do their magic and was keenly watching the chart and doing nothing. I got a bit excited when Nifty started falling i.e. 11.11 and 11.15 candles when Nifty went till 21916. My marked support was at 21913, so the eagerness was to check if we would break that or not. If you take a look at the chart, we had multiple instances of touches at 22051 levels, by 14.19 I almost felt we were breaking out and then the bearish positions may go into deep losses. Somehow or the other, I am not able to relate to the price actions of Nifty50, NiftyIT, and BankNifty these days. All 3 of them are never in agreement and you club the “weak hands” holding the CE shorts - a recipe for disaster. The CALL sellers run for cover now and then creating the quick ripples, and then it fades out 30mts hence. You won't believe me if I said Nifty50 has made a W pattern (double bottom) on the 63mts timeframe. Take a look, you could spell the entire “W”. Interestingly it has formed at the crucial support of 21913. The only thing that could override this W pattern is the lower high, lower low formation. LH, LL will take precedence over a short-duration pattern all the time. For tomorrow, I would like to start the day with the bearish tone itself and see how the 22051 resistance holds. 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
15 Mar ’24 — Nifty falls below the support again, goes bearish ⬇Nifty Analysis - Stance Bearish⬇️ Recap from yesterday: “If you look at the higher time frame, today’s price moves might be between 38.2 to 50% Fibonacci retracement levels and what might have formed could be a lower high.” 4mts chart Nifty was not able to sustain the gains yesterday, within the opening 15 minutes itself it breached the support level of 22051 and stayed below that for the entire day. Since we broke the SR level, we had to change the stance from neutral to bearish today. Even though we went down, it was not accompanied by a huge momentum or an avalanche build-up. The reason is, the next support level of 21913 was not tested today. The only reason we pushed through the resistance yesterday was because of NiftyIT. And today NiftyIT started with cuts of -0.9%. Do you agree with me now that the main villain is NiftyIT which is preventing Nifty50 for a smooth directional trend? On the higher timeframe, looks like the lower high is formed perfectly. It has to be complemented with a new lower low. And when that happens the support of 21913 will have to give away and we might even have to retest the 21491 levels. After reading the “electoral bonds scam” and “small and mid cap stress tests” news, I strongly feel we might have uncertain times ahead, at least for a short while. 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
14 Mar ’24 — BankNifty's price action overshadowed by NiftyITBankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Banks were performing as expected today, even though we had a neutral view we ended up losing 0.41% for the day. The stance for tomorrow also continues to be neutral as BN did not breach support or resistance today. The starting candle was perfect as per the script, from there we rose 666pts ~ 1.43% to reach the HOD of 47231 by 11.43. The staling was obvious as there were no special triggers to take up even near the resistance level of 47465. 4mts chart The fall of 536pts ~ 1.14% from the day’s high also made perfect sense. Unfortunately, Nifty50 does not convey the real truth that happened with the banks as that index was overshadowed by stocks like Adani and NiftyIT components. On the 63mts time frame, the lower high formation looks much better than N50. Our stance continues to be neutral and would go short if we enter the bearish channel and would go long if the 47465 resistance is breached. 63mts chart – Algo Trading Our algo trades ended today with a gain of Rs21565. Even though we had a quick dip in profits by 10.37, the system recovered and closed in green.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
06 Mar ’24 — New ATH, yet again - are you a believer now?Nifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: “Nifty managed to pull up and close above 22358 which is not a bad thing at all, but what was worrying is how NiftyIT traded today.” 4mts chart How many of you really thought we would hit a new ATH today? Even if you happened to read yesterday’s post-mortem report - you might not have gathered enough courage to go long. The markets really took all of us for a ride today. The opening hours it spent below the 22295 support showing a strong intent to fall. NiftyIT was trading with deep cuts and went almost to negative 558 points by 11.39. BankNifty on the other hand started strong and stayed strong and could pivot NiftyIT to go green. Even though the market views all favored us, the positions did not. The underpricing of the call options and the strong short-covering really hurt us. What is more saddening is the low conviction of the CALL short sellers, the moment the market turns - they run for cover. And this running away is fueling further upmove which triggers the next strike’s covering. The strength of the last 2 GREEN candles requires no special explanation. Right from the support level, it went and took out the all-time highs. Two things were in favor, firstly the strength of Banks and then the massive reversal of NiftyIT. We are maintaining our bullish stance for tomorrow as well, but we are not expecting 22600 to be broken tomorrow. 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
05 Mar ’24 — Nifty breaks a support, BN breaks a resistanceNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: “Our stance continues to be bullish and the first support level would be 22295. It is a shallow support and not quite relevant for a stance change, but the momentum is what really matters.” 4mts chart For a brief period, Nifty traded below the support level of 22295. Even on the lower timeframe we did not have a close below that level due to which a stance change is not required. Nifty managed to pull up and close above 22358 which is not a bad thing at all, but what was worrying is how NiftyIT traded today. Even from the start, the weakness in the IT sector was evident. NiftyIT ended the day -1.59% ~ 594 points. The major reason Nifty fell today was attributed to this weakness. There is something the IT sector knows that we don't. Look at how SPX (-0.89%), NDQ (-1.78%) are trading, a selected few people knew this in advance and started selling the tech sectors. On the higher timeframe, the 3 red candles till the support level stands out. Even though the buying came today, it may not prove useful if we gap-down tomorrow. It all depends on how the US market closes today. Primarily, I need to spend some time to understand why the tech sectors are cooling off. News aside, the charts still shows no change in bullish stance, however if we open gap down tomorrow and that too below the 22295 levels we will immediately change stance to neutral. And if it breaks 22199, we would love to go short. 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
04 Mar ’24 — BankNifty still has to overcome the 47465 resistancBankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ BankNifty is still stuck at the 47465 resistance level and this according to me was the primary reason why even Nifty could not find the upward thrust. There were 4 specific instances when BN tried to break the resistance and move up but all of them got rejected. This does not really mean that the Bulls are tired or out of steam, it is just that they are unable to win the hand. 4mts chart By this time, we all know what is going to happen next - A gap-up above the resistance line and then boom-boom. The gap-up will change the dynamics in the Bull’s favor and the short covering will give it a bit more thrust. The moment that happens, we will be able to change the stance from neutral to bullish. This would also mean Nifty50 would be scaling new heights. What is totally unpredictable is NiftyIT, playing hard to get. Seems like the fight to be the Nifty’s torch bearer is happening between IT and Banks. 63mts chart Algo Trading Our algo trades ended today with a gain of 27037. We manually closed the day @ 11.15 as the MTM felt decent enough for the 2hrs of trade. We will only get to know if it was the right decision or not when we run the backtest. I am a registered financial advisor & would be happy to assist with your queries or doubts. If privacy is required, you can DM me too.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
01 Mar ’24 — Nifty beats the double-top & goes GREENNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: “On the higher timeframe, the last candle of the day stands out, ample GREENery for the Bulls to feast. We are not removing the double top (M pattern) for now, because to negate that Nifty50 has to take out the ATH.” 4mts chart Was the Nifty’s price action predictable in the last 2 days? What do you think after reading our post-mortem reports? Yesterday we had a rally from the support 21913 to the resistance 22051. And today we briefly touched 22051 support and then surged upwards. Today’s price action was 100% Bull dominated - we did not even have a retracement. Nifty ended the day with a gain of 355 points ~ 1.62%. The odd man out today was NiftyIT, which did not want to participate in the rally and instead went the other way. It ended the day with a loss of 204 points. BankNifty played a pivotal role today in helping Nifty50 take out its ATH, it is official - the new highs are 22353.3. And we may also have followthrough momentum tomorrow during the special trading session. On the higher time frame chart, 2 things happened today. Firstly, we broke past the 22051 support/resistance zone which meant we did not have any more resistance. Secondly, N50 went above the double-top pattern - negating that, so from the next day’s report it will get removed. Our stance is now bullish and agrees with what we had in mind yesterday. We were just waiting for the double-top pattern to be negated. 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
28 Feb ’24 — BankNifty goes bearish, next stop 45399BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish ⬇️ There is no doubt that the stance on Banknifty is anything but bearish. Even though we started quite okay, we quickly gave up the gains. After 10.23 the intensity of selling was quite strong. And once we came back to the bearish channel the depth of the RED candles kept on increasing. Banks were the first to react to the bad news along with RELIANCE. NiftyIT was still going on strong and was at the GREEN end of the turf. In fact, NiftyIT went into RED only after 11.43. 4mts chart The double top M pattern and the bearish channel are better explainable on the higher timeframe. BankNifty’s next support comes at 45399, the momentum for the Bears will really pick up if we are to break that by tomorrow. That would also mean we are going back to the levels as of 18th Jan 2024. We are also quite sure, that could be a pain area for many traders who would have taken a monthly position. HDFC Bank was very special today, it hit a low of 1405 by 10.59 - but the recovery after that was more than amazing. Till 14.27, things were not looking that bad either. However, the final 1 hour ensured that the selling on this counter was far from over. HDFCBK has a higher weight on Nifty50 than RELIANCE. Also it commands 2 other indices - BankNifty and FinNifty also. So if this elephant starts rolling, it would be a treat to watch for the BEARS. 63mts chart Algo Trading Our algo trades ended today with a gain of 15606. This is the 3rd day that we have exited the Algos prematurely. Today, we closed the trades @ 10.07 as my gut feeling said something was fishy.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
26 Feb ’24 — Except Energy, all the other sectors down in N50?Nifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: “We are not suggesting that all “roads lead to Rome theory” i.e. everything is bullish, but the probability of things going up seems higher than cutting through the supports of 22051 & 21913. You know us, the moment the supports are broken, we will exit the bullish position at a loss and go neutral.” 4mts chart Almost all the sectors looked weak today, NiftyIT was the main villain - at a point, it was like 1.7% down. The energy sector ended the day with some meaningful gains, excluding that then everything was either in RED or flat. Interestingly, Nifty did not touch or break the 22051 support level today and due to that we do not think a status change is required. The near ATM CALLs side had exorbitant premiums last week, most analysts would have even extrapolated to have a 22500+ close this expiry. Today’s price action ensured normalcy returned to these CALL premiums. Meanwhile, the PUT premiums are not elevated as well, so we do not expect a major breakout or breakdown soon. On the higher timeframe, the flag pattern seems to have played out as per script. Ideally, we should expect the leg2 to start soon, but the premiums are not indicative. Also, we have the monthly expiry this week and things could get a bit volatile before we find a clear trend. We wish to stay bullish and as soon as the 22051 support gets broken - we wish to change our stance to neutral. If 21913 is getting broken in 1 to 2 days - we would even go bearish as the flag pattern will be totally negated. 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
21 Feb ’24 — BankNifty is bullish as long as its > 46886 ⬆️⬆️⬆️BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Although BankNifty created a double top (M pattern) on the 4 mts time frame today, the stance is still bullish. The reason we did not change the stance for BN even though we downgraded N50 was that BN did not even test the support level today. Despite the selling pressure on all other counters, the Banks did not attempt to re-enter the bearish channel nor break the trendline. Ideally, it had to fall below 46833 to go into a bearish zone and today’s low was 46886. We know a 50pts margin is not that adequate, but when we switch to a higher time frame chart - you may agree with us. 4mts chart If you look at the chart below, even after adjacent RED candles, BN is still above the blue trend line. Tomorrow’s opening 63 minutes is very crucial as the major reason why BN did not participate in the fall today could be attributed to expiry day trades. When the selling came, the volumes of the top 4 banks had spiked accidentally revealing that it could be the start of something big. We guess the torch-bearer status of BankNifty has to be kept on the back burner as NiftyIT is calling the shots now. February is proving to be equally volatile as January 2024. Both the indices are now hunting for the stop losses and it seems like the ATM non-directional traders are going through another drawdown phase. For tomorrow we wish to start the day with a bullish bias and not get into any aggressive bets. Will wait for the first 63mts candle to appear and then take things from there. If we stay below the blue trend line - the status would be changed to neutral immediately. 63mts chart — Algo Trading Our algo trades ended today with gains of 11395. We booked the profits early i.e. by 11.34. Would have to backtest and find out tomorrow if our decision to prematurely exit was worth it or not. Yesterday also we exited prematurely and the backtests proved we made the right choice.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
20 Feb ’24 — Another milestone, 22000 conquered - Nifty50 flyingNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: “On the 63 mts time frame, Nifty looks strong and pumped up. We continue to hold on to our bullish stance, if BN or IT index joins N50 — the build-up in momentum will be a treat to watch.” 4mts chart Exciting times as Nifty50 has conquered a new milestone “22000” and BankNifty just turned bullish today. At present, both N50 and BN are facing northwards and that usually is a sign of further momentum build-up. Having said that, SPX and NDQ are trading negatively in the US with losses of 0.84 & 1.39% respectively. FII sell value for today is 1335 crores and the other European markets are trading mostly in RED or flat. So we are in a unique position where Indian markets are looking optimistic and roaring to go whereas global markets are a bit subdued. Unusually high inflows of SIP via domestic mutual fund AMCs are the primary reason we are staying afloat. Even after so much money making its way to the financial markets, we are in no way close to the bank's fixed deposit volume & volume growth. One thing we are not sure about is whether this money inflow is due to the blind trust in the current Govt’s fiscal policies, reforms, and the certainty to return to power. Or is this a structural change and India is truly becoming a financial powerhouse? If you look at the price action today by N50, we had a RED opening candle which was bought into by 10.15 and then we had one more round of selling between 13.31 to 13.59. But what stood out was the surge of 78 points in the last 30 minutes. It took out yesterday’s swing high and created the new ATH record. On the 63mts TF, N50 is still looking strong - we would keep our first support level(weak) at 22051 and the main support at 21913. With 2 days to go, will N50 take out the 22500 levels? Reply with your comments below. 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
4
19 Feb ’24 — A New All-Time Highs - 22186 Nifty50 ⬆️⬆️⬆️Nifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: “From 15th Dec 2023 to 15th Feb 2024 — Nifty was in a narrow range of 21491 to 21913 with a couple of false breakouts/breakdowns. So we are keeping our fingers crossed this time to validate whether it works out. One way to do that is to check for follow-through price action. Blips do not last that long and we usually fall below the resistance (just like what happened on the last 2 occasions).” 4mts chart The price action today was totally predictable. The break above the resistance of 21913 had an impact on Indian stock markets. Even though SPX & NDQ ended their last session with a loss of 0.48 & 0.9% respectively, it did not stop us from hitting a new all-time high of 22186 today. We even started gap-up followed by sensible price action to close the gap, get the footing, and then rally to new highs. Once we hit the HOD, there was a minor profit booking and we ended the day only with a gain of 81 points. BankNifty did not show its strength today, ICICI Bank looked in top-class form but none of the other major banks supported it. BankNifty as an index is still not bullish, on top of that NiftyIT was in the RED today. That is something that we don't witness every day, N50 hitting new highs without the support from BankNifty and NiftyIT. On the 63 mts time frame, Nifty looks strong and pumped up. We continue to hold on to our bullish stance, if BN or IT index joins N50 - the build-up in momentum will be a treat to watch. Having said that we are not quite sure if we have enough firepower to take out 22500 in this weekly series. 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
13 Feb ’24 — Even after gaining 127pts, we are still neutral ➡️Nifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: “For tomorrow we wish to keep our eyes open for any bearish clues although we wish to stay neutral to start with. As always, we prefer BankNifty to make its move first and then Nifty50 will align itself to that direction.” 4mts chart We really thought the open may be flat and we would start falling, but to our surprise, we hit a session low of 21543 and then started climbing. By 11:11 Nifty had climbed an impressive 223 points ~ 1.04%. The options premium were totally weird today, an equidistant PUT and CALL options were trading highly skewed to the PUT side. Since we had some strangles on, we noticed even a premium spread of 1:2 wherein 1 lot of PE had the premiums of 2 lots of CE. Skews like these usually do not happen without a reason, in hindsight the reason was that the upside was capped. The PUT options were rightly priced and CALL premiums were not spiking - indicating that Nifty may not rise further. But this made no sense if you looked at the chart between 10 to 11 AM. BankNifty proved to be a bigger disappointment today, despite gaining 620 points ~ 1.38% - it was unable to break the resistance. Just imagine, when was the last time an Index rallied greater than 1.3% and still had a bearish tone? NiftyIT had no plans of its own - it was jumping around from RED to GREEN for no reason whatsoever. On the 63mts chart, Nifty is still neutral with no clear indication of the next direction. BankNifty is bearish and the chances of Nifty going down may be higher due to that. The first target to break should be 21491 below which the bearish momentum will pick up an avalanche effect. 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
12 Feb ’24 — Nifty Breaks the Swing Low, Support Approaching...Nifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: “For Monday, we wish to maintain our stance of neutrality. To go long the resistance of 21913 has to be taken out and to go short 21615 has to be broken first and then 21491” 4mts chart Nifty opened a bit gap-up and then started declining immediately. It made a two-legged downward move today taking out the swing low of the last session. The difference between the high and low of the day was 257 points ~ 1.18%. It may not sound that weird as technically Nifty is still in neutral territory. What was more interesting was the stark contrast between NiftyIT and BankNifty today. From the opening minutes, NiftyIT was in strong green whereas BankNifty was facing southward. NiftyIT ended up with a gain of 0.79% whereas BankNifty ended up losing 1.65%. Global macros were not that disappointing, we assume today’s break had something to do with the “Farmers Protest V2.0”. Guessing it may really impact the Lok Sabha Elections 2024 outcome. Coming back to the technicals - we still need Nifty to break the support of 21491 to go strongly bearish. Whereas BankNifty is already in bearish territory today as its support was broken today. For tomorrow we wish to keep our eyes open for any bearish clues although we wish to stay neutral to start with. As always, we prefer BankNifty to make its move first and then Nifty50 will align itself to that direction. You might be bored listening to our phrase “BankNifty is still the torch bearer whenever Nifty50 intends to change direction”. 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
08 Feb ’24 — Nifty Disappoints, stance reversed to neutral ➡️➡️Nifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: “Our stance for tomorrow is bullish and since these are all games of probabilities we reserve the right to be wrong as would like to keep the 21826 area as a good stop loss.” 4mts chart Just when we thought things were swinging in our favor, Nifty took a U-turn and is now back in neutral territory. “Disappointing” is not the right word to define today’s price action, after all the markets did what it felt right. Our analysis and positioning are what took the toll today. I ended up booking the highest intraday loss ever since I started trading. To give you a backdrop, we were long overnight and the set-up looked pretty bullish for us. Although we cut losses once the 21826 magic level got hit, our MTM was too deep in the RED for any sort of recovery. Nifty fell a total of 346 points in the intraday trade today. The support level of 21913 was taken out with so much force (depth of the RED candle) that it felt like kissing goodbyes to this level. The culprit was BankNifty, after the RBI MPC meeting today, despite no major policy decisions - banks started falling, pulling the other stocks along with it. One thing that stood out in the discussion today was the instruction to include the loan processing fees, and other charges to the interest component so that the end customer knows the exact rate he is paying. Why would the bigger banks get spooked by that? Other stocks like NESTLE and ITC were looking weak even before the Governor’s speech. 63mts chart Between the last expiry and today, Nifty has gained only 70pts ~ 0.32%. The gains would have been sizeable and meaningful if not for the rout today. After today’s episode, we drew the double top pattern (M pattern). Since the support level of 21913 is breached, we hope that this pattern holds. Nifty is by no means bearish, unlike BankNifty which slipped into the RED today. If BN continues the southward journey tomorrow, most likely N50 will have to follow suit.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
07 Feb ’24 — Nifty Passes the Fire Test - Stance Upgraded to 🐂Nifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: ” Nifty is still undecided on the 63mts TF and for that same reason, we wish to start the day tomorrow with a neutral bias and then go long if we have a green candle above the 21913 zone. Only if BankNifty lends support we can take out the ATH and there is no better day than the expiry day for such feats.” 4mts chart The gap-up was much more than expected and we did not live well to that hype anyway. When we have a huge gap and the market starts to close, it accidentally builds momentum for the weaker hand and most of the time the scale tips in their favor. Luckily, the Bears could not capitalize on it today as Nifty fell 192 points ~ 0.87% from the highs, breaking the support of 21913. The recovery was not anything spectacular, Nifty just ended the day above the level of 21913 and for us, that is more than enough to change our stance from Neutral to Bullish. NiftyIT reminds us of the night watchman in cricket. When there are only a few more overs remaining in a Test match - you send a tail-ender instead of your best batsman. Today when BankNifty started awakening, NiftyIT started giving up. What was the reason NiftyIT ended the day with a loss of -1.25% on an otherwise good GREEN day? 63mts chart The Inverse Head and Shoulders look perfectly formed and since it is a high-accuracy pattern - we wish to put our weight behind it. The only thing standing in its way was the 21913 resistance, now the next target should be the all-time highs. Our stance for tomorrow is bullish and since these are all games of probabilities we reserve the right to be wrong as would like to keep the 21826 area as a good stop loss.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
06 Feb ’24 — Head and Shoulders Inverse forming on BankNifty?BankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Is BankNifty bearish? - absolutely not. Is it bullish? It's too early to say. One thing is sure - there is some weakness impacting the banks. Are the unsecured loans haunting them? None of the balance sheets from the quarterly results are bleeding - but something is still bothering them. Today was a fine day for the banks to support Nifty’s rally - still, the banks decided to stay on the bench. 4mts chart One thing is sure, the fall looks like arrested (for now). If Nifty takes out the ATH without the support of the banks again, then it is some indication that the Information Technology players may have taken over as the new torch-bearers. There are exactly 6 NiftyIT companies in Nifty50 as there are 6 banks in BankNifty. NiftyIT weight is 14.18% vs 33% of BankNifty - definitely, BN has lost some ground and IT has gobbled it. 63mts chart The perfect Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern has not formed yet - we still have 20% of the move remaining. We will closely monitor if BN chooses to follow this path as it is a bullish sign. The first clue came in when BN defended its support at 44542, the 2nd came when 45399 was defended. Tomorrow is the weekly expiry and we hope to see some actions - at present, the OTM strikes are not that juicy - if BN decides to move, we could expect some mispricings to pop in. Algo Trading Our BankNifty algo trades ended today with a gain of Rs8121.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
06 Feb ’24 — Nifty takes out the resistance of 21319 on lower TFNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: “The chart pattern is not at all bearish, in fact, it is more bullish than bearish. But we all know for an upward move, the resistance has to be knocked out whereas the support has to be breached for a downward move. For tomorrow, we wish to maintain our neutral stance and wait for some directional clues to appear.” 4mts chart Nifty does the tough job today - to take out the resistance of 21913. The real job of going bullish is so easy tomorrow, all it needs to do is hold the ground and the bulls will bring the momentum for the rally. Over the last 3 trading sessions, we witnessed 2 failures i.e on the 2nd and 5th Feb. Today against all odds, we opened at a level quite lower than this resistance area and then managed to pull up to the zone and then beat it. In a way, the slow and steady grind is much powerful as we have seen that this market rarely gives leeway to the Bears. BankNifty was not at all supporting Nifty and almost all the gains came from the NiftyIT stocks. NiftyIT closed the day with a super strong gain of 2.92%. 63mts chart The good news of the resistance break is only for the lower time frame. Nifty is still undecided on the 63mts TF and for that same reason, we wish to start the day tomorrow with a neutral bias and then go long if we have a green candle above the 21913 zone. Only if BankNifty lends support we can take out the ATH and there is no better day than the expiry day for such feats.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram