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Niftyit

Nifty IT: Soaring Towards 36800 and Beyond?Wondering if the sharp rally in this sector will persist? Nifty IT displayed significant movement yesterday, continuing today with a breakout. My intuition suggests a potential move toward the 36800 level. I'll consider adding more to my portfolio if there's a retest of the breakout level, although the likelihood seems low. Nifty IT not only has the potential to reach 36800 but also to surpass it – the path ahead appears clear. Stay tuned for updates as we navigate this promising trajectory in the Nifty IT sector. #NiftyIT
NSE:CNXITLong
by iamrk7
16 Jan ’24 — BankNifty is < bullish & > bearish trendline ➡️BankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ BankNifty was sailing smoothly till 12.59 today when it fell below a weak trend line. Till then it was holding its end of the bargain when the sectors around it were falling, most noticeably NiftyIT. Yesterday we changed the stance of BN from neutral to bullish - but we did not get the required pump-up today, hence we are reverting back to the neutral stance. 4mts chart BN fell close to 302pts ~ 0.63% between 12.03 and 13.35 - it was during this phase that it breached the shallow trend line. Even though that trend line is insignificant in the grand scheme of things, it may be more than enough to discourage the weak bulls. Surprisingly, BN did not fall below the 47996 zone which would have meant pure bearishness. 63mts chart The chart may look complex with many lines crisscrossing, but it is simple to understand. The line connecting 47010 to 48265 is the shallow trend line formed due to the bullish move from the 10th of Jan. The flatter downward-sloping line from the ATH & connecting the peaks is a bearish trend line. Right now BN is below the bullish line and above the bearish line, if it falls further we go into the bearish zone. If the chart felt too complicated - drop in a comment & we will be happy to help.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
15 Jan ’24 — BankNifty stance change from neutral to bullish 🐂BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ BankNifty also gets a stance upgrade from neutral to bullish today. After we crossed the 47539 resistance, its level as support never got tested. Today’s gap-up was not so visible for the banks - but the price action was more healthy. 4mts chart The stance change came only in the last 15 minutes or so when BankNifty started to shift the gears. 48250 was a level I was watching for. Even though we did not breach it today, the momentum banknifty showed in the last 1 hour was more than satisfactory to change the stance. 63mts chart The last candle made all the difference today, that is the secret ingredient for the change of stance. For tomorrow, the first thing BN has to do is take out the 48422 levels and if possible get a new ATH. The quarterly results from the component stocks will have a huge role to play. Look what the results of TCS, INFY, WIPRO, HCLTECH did to the NiftyIT sector - it almost went up 9% in the last 2 sessions.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
WIPRO (Strong Breakout Candidate)WIPRO has given a clear breakout on the weekly chart. The stock has a possible upside of 515, 565, and 615. Also, strong volume buildup can be seen from the last 4-5 weeks. The stop loss can be placed at the 427 level (Weekly Closing basis). #WIPRO. Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI registered analyst. All the stocks are for educational purposes. Investors must consult a financial advisor before making any investment. It is not a buy or sell recommendation.
NSE:WIPROLong
by onkarsoundankar
1
12 Jan ’24 — BankNifty goes neutral, Euphoria missing unlike ITBankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ BankNify opens above the resistance area of 47539 and then briefly falls below that till 09.59. When the entire IT sector was screaming GREEN, Banks were keeping lull. BN had its proper resistance break at 10.07. From there it made 2-legged rise to 47873 before giving away 270pts between 14.39 to 15.07. 4mts chart link We are impressed by BankNifty’s bull attack today that allowed the stance to change from bearish to neutral. But we still do not think it is a bullish case per se. A rising tide does lift all the boats. NiftyIT opened the floodgates of gains today and there would have been some spillover effects on other sectors. We will wait for the euphoria to cool off on Monday and re-evaluate the stance. 63mts chart link BankNifty is still neutral, the breakthrough of resistance has given a positive sentiment to it today - but it did not have the kind of momentum to go up. Take a look at FinNifty - it was flatter than BankNifty today. For Monday, the first thing BankNifty has to do is defend the support of 47539. The bulls will eventually drive it up if they get the confidence that the support is intact.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
12 Jan ’24 — Traders are cold-blooded, Bias changed to Bullish🐂Nifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday “Nifty looks perfectly neutral from here, the moment the support of 21491 gives away — we can start looking for bearish opportunities. To go bullish the ATH has to be taken out. With the IT majors TCS and INFY declaring the results — we should have a strong swing direction tomorrow.” 4mts chart link Major highlights today Gap-up of 120pts ~ 0..56% NiftyIT gains 5.14% Nifty50 takes out the ATH, new value = 21928 Nifty goes from neutral to bullish Today’s stop came right at the ascending channel top-line Never seen NiftyIT so stubborn to go up, a gain of 5.14% far exceeds expectations, and that too when the IT majors are at their all-time highs. What we still do not understand is the reason for outperformance when the results were average. Anyway, this was the major reason Nifty50 broke out from the neutral zone to the bullish zone. 63mts chart link Today’s price action was along the top trend line of the ascending channel, and careful enough not to break it. There is no shame in saying traders are cold-blooded. We cannot stick with our bias, direction, or opinions and expect the market to behave as per our analysis. If the markets have turned, we need to adapt. Till yesterday, we were looking for neutral trades with a possibility of going down. See how the tables have turned today. For Monday - we need to look out for bullish opportunities now.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
11 Jan ’24 — The bulls of BankNifty has run out of fuel!BankNifty Today Analysis - Stance Bearish ⬇️ Look at what the Gap-up did today to BankNifty, it messed around with the resistance level of 47539. Was it a genuine break? Absolutely NO. Would that have shocked the Bears? Absolutely YES. Gaps are the easiest option available for the manipulators to scare off the retail crowd. 4mts chart link Again the 280+pts quick dip between 14.03 to 14.15 looked quite serious. But the dip buyers made it look like a blip over the next 15 minutes or so. Looks like BN has run out of fuel for any upmoves. 63mts chart link BankNifty is really waiting for a trigger to fall. The tiredness of the bulls is a welcome message for the bears to do their thing. Our stance continues to be bearish for tomorrow despite the neutral day today. Only when the stance of both Nifty50 and BankNifty is in the same direction - we can expect a trending market. Nifty50 could pick a direction due to NiftyIT results tomorrow, if it is down - then it will pull banknifty along with it.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
11 Jan ’24 — Gap-up spoils the market dynamics, Nifty PostMortemNifty Weekly Analysis The close we had on 4th Jan was 21669.6, the close today is 21669.4. Nifty moved -0.2pts this expiry. Unbelievably flat! Would have been a dream come true for traders who took home short iron fly & short straddle last week. 16mts chart link Nifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday “The last candle which is strongly GREEN is standing out. It looks like the 21491 support is respected for now. If we fall below that tomorrow, we will not hesitate to switch back the stance to bearish.” 4mts chart link See how the gap-up changed the dynamics today. Firstly, there was nothing special to have a gap-up of 68pts. Secondly, this got sold into but the selling was not aggressive enough to bring down the markets lower than yesterday’s close. The price move from 14.03 to 14.11 where we got a fall of 75pts looked like a warning shot. Surprisingly there was someone at the other end, buying all of those dips. Despite those swings, the options premium were all dead and good for nothing. Far OTM sellers would have fell asleep watching the charts today. 63mts chart link Nifty looks perfectly neutral from here, the moment the support of 21491 gives away - we can start looking for bearish opportunities. To go bullish the ATH has to be taken out. With the IT majors TCS and INFY declaring the results - we should have a strong swing direction tomorrow. Our stance stays neutral.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
09 Jan ’24 — BankNifty made the BEARS🐻 proud today ! BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish ⬇️ BankNifty was more sensible today. Firstly the gap-up was not so huge to scare away the bears - so they hung around. Secondly, there was no breakaway momentum, by 11.07 things were getting pretty clear that the upmove ran out of steam. 4mts chart link And when the selling came, it was ferocious. Bears also had to make sure the support level of 47539 had to be taken out with style. The RED candles near that price zone are ample proof of that. The fall was over 782pts ~ 1.63% which took BN into RED. Nifty on the other hand stayed in green thanks to NiftyIT, LT, and ADANI group. 63mts chart link Since we have the BN expiry tomorrow, it may be a treat to watch how the strike price premiums could surge. India VIX was not favoring the bears today, if we have a strong price action in the forenoon the IV is bound to add to the momentum. Our stance of bearishness continues with the first target of 46931 followed by 46574.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
05 Jan ’24 — BankNifty gets a sharp reversal at 14.19 & pulls UPBankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ BankNifty opened inline and was looking quite decent till 10.07. The fall that came after that took out 559pts ~ 1.16%. Not quite sure what triggered that fall. Due to this, the impact was felt even on Nifty50. NiftyIT was roaring green at one end and then BankNifty underperforming at the other. 4mts chart link Remember, we changed our stance from bearish to neutral yesterday and this fall started creating conflicting thoughts in our mind. What if the price action we had yesterday was a blip? But we got the right answers between 14.15 to 14.31 when Nifty50 managed to pull back. This also lifted BankNifty to ensure a flat closing for today. 63mts chart link The neutral stance continues. On the downside, we have protection at 47539, and on the upside, the channel bottom line will prove as a minor resistance. As long as BN stays between these two, we will be glad to look out for non-directional option strategies.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
04 Jan ’24 — Unexpected reversal takes out my Stop Loss - NiftyNifty Weekly Analysis Between the last expiry and today, Nifty50 has fallen only 99pts ~ 0.46%. Credits to the recovery today that made up 141 of the lost points. N50 also has managed to bounce off the channel top line indicating further signs of strength. 63mts chart link Nifty Today Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from Yesterday: “On the higher time frame, you can see how N50 is just entering the channel. If the conditions stay like this for tomorrow — we can see a good trending move tomorrow. The first threat to keep in mind is the rejection that came on 21st Dec when N50 bounced from the channel topline.” 4mts chart link We were totally shocked to see a gap-up open of 89pts ~ 0.42% followed by a strong intent to go up. Since yesterday, we have been looking for bearish opportunities and what the gap-up open did was to take out the stop loss. Just like the 21st Dec, we got a perfect bounce off from the trend line showing sheer strength. Bears like me got trapped and were running for cover, this made the followthrough rally much easier today. A total swing of 161pts ~ 0.75% for today. And that too when NiftyIT was flashing red and green. BankNifty took the bulk of the weight today. 63mts chart link The first thing we had to do was to change the stance from bearish to neutral. To go bullish we need some more momentum, if it comes up in the forenoon session - I will update you via TV minds. Kindly make sure you are following @viswaram handle to get the updates via email.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
03 Jan ’24 — Nifty gets a stance change, Bears are back!Nifty Analysis - Stance Bearish ⬇️ Recap from yesterday: “The first target for a trend change will be the breach of the ascending channel top line approx 21530 levels. From a technical analysis perspective, we had the 3 black crows at 14.30 yesterday and the first 2 candles today.“ 4mts chart link We got our first target of 21530 hit today and as soon as the channel top line got breached - the stance changed to bearish. Technically Nifty is far ahead of BankNifty as N50 has only broken into the channel whereas BN has broken out. The status change is just because of momentum that is favoring the Bears. Come 2024 and they are back! 4mts chart link NiftyIT deserves a special mention, it fell a whopping 2.59% today. There is severe competition going on between NiftyIT and BankNifty on who wants to become the “leader” in trend reversals. 63mts chart link On the higher time frame, you can see how N50 is just entering the channel. If the conditions stay like this for tomorrow - we can see a good trending move tomorrow. The first threat to keep in mind is the rejection that came on 21st Dec when N50 bounced from the channel topline. Global macros are much worse today and we are hoping tomorrow’s expiry should belong to the bears. Our first target will be 21409 and then 21310.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
02 Jan ’24 — A Breakdown in Progress? 3 black crowsNifty Analysis - Stance: Neutral Recap from yesterday: “The last candle is looking quite deep and has almost negated the progress of 3 days. If it was not related to any news/event, the outcomes match quite strongly for an interim top-like formation.” 4mts chart link - click here The last 30mts action yesterday was not a blip, we got some continuity today. Nifty50 fell 199pts ~ 0.92% intraday to 21555 by 10.39 and then retraced 50% of that fall. The real impact was on BankNifty and not Nifty. Just like we often say, during trend reversals - BankNifty takes the lead and then Nifty50 follows. We did change the stance on BankNifty to bearish today (more on that in a while). Even NiftyIT took some beating today, the positive contributors to Nifty50 were BAJFINANCE, RELIANCE, and ADANIPORTS. In fact, BAJFINANCE was the main reason FinNifty and BankNifty had a variance of 0.46% today. 63mts chart link - click here We would like to maintain the stance on Nifty to neutral itself. The first target for a trend change will be the breach of the ascending channel top line approx 21530 levels. From a technical analysis perspective, we had the 3 black crows at 14.30 yesterday and the first 2 candles today. The last time we had a breakdown i.e. on 20th Dec, Nifty50 took support at the channel top line - so we must breach that now for extra confirmation.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
01 Jan ’24 — Banks not happy with a "Happy New Year 2024"We have compiled the last 3 months of work into an Amazon Kindle ebook with the title “60 Post-Mortems on Nifty & BankNifty Q3 FY23-24” - request you to take a look and provide suggestions. BankNifty Analysis - Stance changed to Neutral BankNifty was not able to break away from the lower channel line. Normally BN swings from the lower boundary to the upper boundary and follows a good correlation with the ascending channel. The last 30mts of fall ensured we broke the lower trend line. Ideally, the stance had to change to bearish - but we ran out of time for a full 63mts candle to form. 4mts chart link - click here The fall was 408pts ~ 0.84% deep. The red candle that took out the channel trend line had a drop of 154pts. Both BankNifty and FinNifty were looking quite weak today - not sure of the reasons though. When NiftyIT turned and went into strong green - the banks also started lending support to Nifty50. And when the fall came, it was all banks. 63mts chart link - click here The last candle closed below the channel, but the body is still touching the trend line. Just because of this reason - we decided to go with a neutral stance instead of bearish. The opening hours tomorrow will give us more clues anyway. FinNifty has expiry tomorrow and the stakes will be quite high for the banks to perform.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
01 Jan ’24 — Shocking Last 30mts like a Tsunami — Nifty50We have compiled the last 3 months of work into an Amazon Kindle ebook with the title “ 60 Post-Mortems on Nifty & BankNifty Q3 FY23-24 ” - request you to take a look and provide suggestions Nifty Analysis - Stance changed to Neutral Recap from yesterday: “Nifty is still way above the ascending channel showing bullishness. As long as the soft support level of 21652 is respected, we do not wish to change the stance.” 4mts chart link - click here Everything was going as per the plan, we even hit a new all-time high of 21834, but the last 30mts of price action was more severe than a Tsunami. Earlier in the day, was quite disheartened to hear the 7.6 Earthquake in Japan and the Tsunami alert. During those hours even Nikkei 225 futures were trading flat. We were watchful for any spillover effect to our markets but got nothing. BankNifty options flow was suggesting bearishness right from the start, the calls were unusually overpriced vs the puts indicating a higher number of CE credit spreads getting written (bearish). NiftyIT 4 mts chart - click here NiftyIT was trading in RED, so we almost gave up the hope of having a new ATH today. After a while, NiftyIT turned and turned quite big - the reversal was 536pts ~ 1.52% from the day’s low. And when NiftyIT reversed, it gave enough fuel for Nifty50 to take out the recent swing high and reach for new highs today. 63mts chart link - click here The last candle is looking quite deep and has almost negated the progress of 3 days. If it was not related to any news/event, the outcomes match quite strongly for an interim top-like formation. Just for this reason, we are changing the stance from bullish to neutral for tomorrow. We will revisit the stance during trading hours tomorrow, if it was just a blip then we should be having a new ATH tomorrow.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
28th Dec ’23 - 94% of Q3 gains came in DEC - BankNifty AmazingBankNifty Quarterly Analysis Surprisingly BankNifty rose only 9.56% ~ 4232pts compared to 11.6% by Nifty. There are 2 reasons for this. RBI’s I-CRR and CAR weight adjustments decisions rocked the boat and BN fell much more than N50 NiftyIT rose to the occasion and supported N50, in the same period NiftyIT gained almost 12% 1D chart link - click here BankNifty Monthly Analysis 94% of the Quarterly gains came in the December series alone. It was like a relay race and during the last lap, BN ran so fast that it made up for the losses in the earlier 2 months. 1D chart link - click here BankNifty Analysis The gap up really helped BankNifty to cross the top boundary of the ascending channel. After that happened, all BN had to do today was to resist falling below that inclined support level. In fact BN did that beautifully today and in the process hit a new ATH of 48636. 4mts chart link - click here The monthly options expiry is much better than the weekly ones. Primarily because the premiums are pretty high when Nifty and BankNifty have expiry on the same day. From a trader’s perspective, the earnings are directly proportional to the premiums the strike carries. During volatile expiries like today, the premium is too sugary to resist. 63mts chart link - click here BN trade above the ascending channel top line is not that clear from the chart as the line is seen as cutting it through. On a lower TF, you can clearly see the difference. For tomorrow also, we are going with the bullish stance.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
26th Dec ’23 - Positive Day with a rising VIX - PostMortem NiftyNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “Since Monday is a holiday, it gives us added uncertainty on what to expect on Tuesday. Despite the 94pts gain by Nifty — I still see the price action as negative. I would like to go with a bearish stance for 26th Dec.” 4mts chart link - click here Seems like I got the bet wrong, despite weakening geopolitical events - Nifty traded in the positive territory today. Only in the opening 15mts or so we saw a slight tendency to go below water but it was quickly bought into. Nifty rallied 146pts ~ 0.69pts from the LOD to HOD by 12.23. NiftyIT 4mts charts - click here Once it hit the intraday high, the steam eased off and then we started going sideways. NiftyIT has been such a decisive factor for Nifty50 these days. It lost almost 382pts ~ 1.07% and then recovered 492pts ~ 1.4% all in the opening 90mts. The final close was in the RED though (-0.41%). 63mts chart link - click here I am forced to change my stance from bearish to neutral as the price action now shows a higher tendency to go up rather than down. Those strong RED candles of 20th Dec still haunt me - but it has failed to gather the momentum of the other bears. Since it's a holiday week - the FII action may be at a reduced space. Lower liquidity could bring in unusual price spikes - it is best suggested to take your trades with caution.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
22nd Dec ’23 - BankNifty's trades today were logical & realisticBankNifty Analysis The trades on BankNifty were more practical and appropriate to the situation we have at hand. 4mts chart link - click here We opened in line and then tested the top of the ascending channel from 10.03 to 12.03. There was rejection at those levels which took BN quickly to the bottom of the channel. We spent 13.43 to 15.11 at the lower end before breaking down. Even though the closing was below the channel, we ran out of time for conclusive evidence. Yesterday we went with a neutral stance believing BankNifty will be able to lead the fight for Nifty50 today. What really happened today was NiftyIT taking the pole position and BankNifty breaking down. 63mts chart link - click here The last 4 candles of today were in RED and we ended just below the channel. For Tuesday, I wish to go with a bearish stance. So at present, my directional view for both Nifty and BankNifty is bearish. Since we have a long weekend - anything could happen when we reopen on Tuesday. I have not taken any positions overnight and decided to play as per the situation after reopening.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
22nd Dec ’23 - Nifty’s levels today are skewed by NiftyIT 🚀🚀🚀Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “I am inclined to change my stance to neutral with the developments of today. Giving the bears one more opportunity to prove their mettle, hence going with the bearish stance for tomorrow as well. All they have to do is keep Nifty50 below 21200 in the opening 2hrs for the momentum to kick in” 4mts chart link - click here Nifty’s price action was deceptive today, mainly because of the outperformance by NiftyIT(+2.27%). The real action today happened in BankNifty (-0.73%). Let me try to elaborate. Between 13.59 and 15.03 NiftyIT rallied 799pts ~ 2.29% in a surprising move. This skewed the Nifty50 numbers too. INFY, Wipro, HCL, TCS, and LTIM contributed 44pts out of 94 today. NiftyIT 4mts chart link - click here NiftyIT even though it started negative had a total swing range of 1029pts today. I guess NSE has to consider opening up FnO on NiftyIT seriously and set the expiries on Mondays. After all, we have 6 stocks of Nifty50 in BankNifty. Similarly, we have 6 stocks of Nifty50 in NiftyIT. 63mts chart link - click here. Since Monday is a holiday, it gives us added uncertainty on what to expect on Tuesday. Despite the 94pts gain by Nifty - I still see the price action as negative. I would like to go with a bearish stance for 26th Dec. A gap-up or gap-down possibility cannot be ruled out as we are going for the extended weekend with bad geo-political macros.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram