08 Feb ’24 — Nifty Disappoints, stance reversed to neutral ➡️➡️

NSE:NIFTY   Nifty 50 Index
Nifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️
Recap from yesterday: “Our stance for tomorrow is bullish and since these are all games of probabilities we reserve the right to be wrong as would like to keep the 21826 area as a good stop loss.”

4mts chart
Just when we thought things were swinging in our favor, Nifty took a U-turn and is now back in neutral territory. “Disappointing” is not the right word to define today’s price action, after all the markets did what it felt right. Our analysis and positioning are what took the toll today. I ended up booking the highest intraday loss ever since I started trading. To give you a backdrop, we were long overnight and the set-up looked pretty bullish for us. Although we cut losses once the 21826 magic level got hit, our MTM was too deep in the RED for any sort of recovery.
Nifty fell a total of 346 points in the intraday trade today. The support level of 21913 was taken out with so much force (depth of the RED candle) that it felt like kissing goodbyes to this level. The culprit was BankNifty, after the RBI MPC meeting today, despite no major policy decisions - banks started falling, pulling the other stocks along with it. One thing that stood out in the discussion today was the instruction to include the loan processing fees, and other charges to the interest component so that the end customer knows the exact rate he is paying. Why would the bigger banks get spooked by that? Other stocks like NESTLE and ITC were looking weak even before the Governor’s speech.

63mts chart
Between the last expiry and today, Nifty has gained only 70pts ~ 0.32%. The gains would have been sizeable and meaningful if not for the rout today. After today’s episode, we drew the double top pattern (M pattern). Since the support level of 21913 is breached, we hope that this pattern holds. Nifty is by no means bearish, unlike BankNifty which slipped into the RED today. If BN continues the southward journey tomorrow, most likely N50 will have to follow suit.


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