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Postmortem

30 Apr 2024 - Sharp fall in last 1 hr, rebalancing or reversalNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish⬆️ Recap from yesterday: "We are now very close to the ATH and once we take out that, we can safely remove the double top pattern." Nifty does a decent climb to hit a new all-time high of 22783 and then a brutal fall of 215pts ~ 0.95%. No matter how professional a trader you are, you cannot set a trap to make money out of that move. Agreed, the 22700 PE buyers would have made some decent money today, but it was never in the cards. Nifty was bullish and stayed bullish from the start, the sign of meltdown was not there, not according to me anyway. I was really scared that we would take out the 23800 on 2nd May as it's a holiday tomorrow. The 63mts TF paints another picture, a perfect triple top at the 22780 levels. A double top between 9th and 10th April and the third top today on 30th April. It is not a conventional triple top anyway, but the ATH levels are seen as quite shaky. As long as 22519 is respected, we maintain the long stance. Nifty algos ended the day with a gain of 210 INR.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
29 Apr 2024 - BankNifty hits a new ATH, becomes torch bearer...BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish⬆️ We were quite sure BN would be bullish today but honestly did not think we would gain 1223 points ~ 2.54% in total. ICICI Bank had good quarterly results, but the outperformance was unexpected, that really fuelled the rally today. Can you believe, BN overshadowed NiftyIT, reclaimed the torchbearer status, and then hit a new ATH of 49473.6 today? NiftyIT is almost 13% down from its ATH, whereas BN is looking strong and roaring. The main reason, Nifty went up 1% was attributed to the outperformance in the banks, otherwise it would have ended the day flat. Honestly, there weren't any good news for Nifty to rally, unlike Banks which had good quarterly results impact. All 6 candles are in green today and all of them are with long bodies, such a treat to the eyes. Let us wait and watch how the expiry will play out tomorrow. My non-directional algo hit a loss of -83618 INR today, quite expected as the index went directional today.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
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29 Apr 2024 - Nifty resolves on the upside stance is Bullish nowNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish⬆️ Recap from yesterday: "For Monday, we will go short if 22295 is taken out and will go long if 22519 is taken out." Nifty started with a gap-up, then came down to close the gap. Once we hit the previous close level, magically Nifty50 got real strength and then started climbing. Nifty gained a total of 213 points ~ 0.95% to not only break out from 22159 but to reinstate its bullish position.  We are now very close to the ATH and once we take out that, we can safely remove the double top pattern. The indices are always resolving to the upside and it has been such a deadly journey for the Bears. Seems like they are facing an existential crisis. Bears will go extinct before Tigers in India. Nifty50 algos today ended the day with losses of -19644 INR.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
26 Apr 2024– BankNifty has to take out 48119 to go neutralBankNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Banknifty falls 293pts ~ 0.61% today, but I have not changed the stance to neutral yet. The charts are not as weak as Nifty50 and there was some restraint on how BN hit the lows today. After opening gap up, BN took a dip and then got its head back by 13.11. HDFC Bank's price action was extremely unusual, making an unusual spike till 09.43 and then falling back to where it all started. In a perfect inverted V shape, how does the highest weighted stock of Nifty50, NiftyBank, and FinNifty move like a meme stock? For Monday, we wish to start with a bullish view but switch to neutral if 48119 levels are getting taken out. Even though we hit that level intraday, the closing was much above that it did not result in a stance change. The BN algos ended the day with a modest gain of Rs570.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
26 Apr 2024– Nifty50 throws up the extra it consumed yesterdayNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ️➡️ Recap from yesterday: "The 321pts intraday rally has ensured N50 gets a stance upgrade to Bullish with the next target being the ATH. If it takes out the ATH, then we can safely remove the double top pattern." Nifty had a great feast on Thursday that it had to throw up a bit today fearing indigestion, there is no other way to explain how we lost 230pts intraday today. Not just that, we fell below 22519 which prompted me to reverse the bullish stance back to neutral. Sometimes the fundamentals makes no sense at all, how could you explain the move on Tech Mahindra & Bajaj Finance after their quarterly results? It really has a bearing on the Nifty index, just check how NiftyIT moved today. On the higher time frame, Nifty looks strong above 22295 - but we need reinforcements coming to protect that support. Getting 4 red candles out of 6 is not going to help. For Monday, we will go short if 22295 is taken out and will go long if 22519 is taken out. Algo trades ended with a loss of Rs570, it turned out to be a blessing as the MTM swing low was minus Rs22500.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
25 Apr 2024– BankNifty goes bullish, ATH a swing away 🐂🐂🐂BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ BN also gets a stance upgrade to bullish, the momentum that was lacking till now came from sources we never knew existed. Kotakbank has a stunning 9.11% weightage on BN index and despite it being 10% down, BN managed to rally 886pts ~ 1.86% intraday today. BN managed to surpass the 48103 resistance which gave it the bullish tinge. The ATH of 49057 is surely a swing away, but let me take a moment and think rationally - can BN take out that level when Kotak has taken so much of a beating? Was what we saw today another round of short-covering, just because the weak hands who held the shorts were not convinced to push down the prices further? Looking at the intraday rally, I was sure the algos would get messed up. BN algos went into error @ 10.55 and auto-squared off. At the moment the losses were approx. -12341. I managed to re-activate the same to end the day with losses of -38795, in hindsight not activating again would have been the better choice 😢.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
25 Apr 2024– Nifty50 gets a stance upgrade, bullish! 🐂🐂🐂Nifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: "For tomorrow, we wish to maintain the neutral stance and look for bearish opportunities if 22295 is getting broken. If the index moves up, 22519 would be our first level to watch for." Kotak Bank started the day with cuts of -10% due to the RBI news impact from yesterday. The spillover effect was visible on all Nifty components prompting a gap down open. It was the consensus trade and we were all ready for it. The first surprise came when we closed the gap by 09.43 even while Kotak was at -10%. The excess trade due to the short-covering bounce was visible between 10.19 to 10.51. The second surprise came when Nifty started rallying from 22400 levels to 22625 between 12.59 to 14.35. This is the 2nd expiry in which Nifty has gone ballistic. I am not sure if it was SL hunting, but it messed up my Algo trades and had to close at a loss of Rs43092 on Nifty. The 321pts intraday rally has ensured N50 gets a stance upgrade to Bullish with the next target being the ATH. If it takes out the ATH, then we can safely remove the double top pattern.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
24 Apr 2024– RBI bank on Kotak credit cards will create ruckus ?BankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ BankNifty also had a neutral day today, but the OTM options premium was so weak that I did not play expiry at all today. I frankly do not remember the last time I missed playing BN expiry day. The regular algos, which has the same logic for banknifty every day ran as usual and that is the only trade I did on BN today. NiftyIT was totally against BankNifty today, the split showing its impact on Nifty50 (in a way helping its neutral case). But looking at the price action, BN was not able to generate any momentum to go for the next levels. Even though the chart says there is further upside momentum left, the fundamentals may not really help BN this week. The news of RBI banning Kotak from issuing new credit cards broke after market hours (source). If the news came during trading hours, the BN would have expired at a different level altogether - but the news would have priced in and things would have settled. Now, we may have some push/pull for the price discovery tomorrow and it could really drive up some volatility. We would still prefer to maintain our neutral stance and go short only if 47465 is getting broken. BN algos made 28600 today and I exited the trades by 13.15.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
24 Apr 2024– Neutral and Out of steam, what is next? Nifty50Nifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: "For tomorrow we wish to start the day with a neutral stance and look for bullish opportunities as soon as it reaches for the 22519 levels." Another flat day, but the options premiums were not behaving as usual. The blame may be on VIX as the premiums were dead low that even a small 50+ points move created a huge skew between the Put and Call prices. India vix staying @ 10.2 levels is not a good sign for professional options traders as a small move will upset the premiums. A better alternative is you use spreads like credit/debit spreads - buy a strike, sell strike+1 etc, so that the premiums move in tandem and the volatility contraction may not impact that much. But I assume most of the Algos may not have spreads as the core strategy, to begin with. For tomorrow, we wish to maintain the neutral stance and look for bearish opportunities if 22295 is getting broken. If the index moves up, 22519 would be our first level to watch for. Algos ended up gaining Rs5496 today.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
3 Apr 24 Nifty50, VIX collapsing 20% means Advantage Bulls!Nifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: "The 63mts time frame is not bullish yet, but we are not bearish now. The best we can think of right now is to go neutral. If we fall back below 22295 tomorrow, we might even go short." Nifty was perfectly neutral today after the opening candle. Since RELIANCE declared its quarterly results yesterday, we expected profit bookings on that counter. The mega gap-up and then cooling off on N50 was much attributed to RELIANCE's price action. Once N50 found support at yesterday's close, it decoupled itself from both RELIANCE and HDFCBANK price action. N50 was in green even when both the stocks were in red, that is not something we see usually. India VIX crashing almost 20% was another shocker for the Bears. Whenever we have dips, the Bears are unable to really punch a way through. The markets come back stronger than before and usually hit a newer top. A crashing VIX is advantage Bulls as it shows the uncertainty falling. For tomorrow we wish to start the day with a neutral stance and look for bullish opportunities as soon as it reaches for the 22519 levels. --- Nifty50 algos ended the day with profits of Rs12729 mostly due to the narrow range maintained by the index today.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
23 Apr 24 - BankNifty, deadly opening candle & then flat dayBankNifty Analysis — Stance Neutral ➡️ BN had a flat day too but not after a deadly looking opening candle. If you look at the charts, it is more or less a replica of what happened yesterday. BN shows it is taking a breather after the recent run. Not falling off from the current levels is an advantage Bulls. Just like we mentioned yesterday, 48103 is an interim resistance, but not a strong one. To take out the ATH, all we need is a slight push. BankNifty Algos ended the day with gains of Rs16071, but not after taking some MTM losses in the earlier part of the day. Once BN started trading flat, the profits started coming in.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
22 Apr - BankNifty also goes neutral, on further gains -ATH nextBankNifty Analysis — Stance Neutral ➡️ The show on BankNifty was sponsored by HDFC Bank which had its quarterly results declared over the weekend. The sharp gap-up opening and then falling to close the gap were all attributed to the price action of HDFCBK. Despite the elephant losing 1.25% today, BN managed to close in strong GREEN. BN also managed to defend the 47465 support so decently that it too commanded a stance change from Bearish to Neutral. 48103 looks like an interim resistance above which BN could keep up the momentum to even take out the ATH. If we look back at the events that happened from 15th Apr, just notice how quickly the indices are managing to gain back the grounds they ceded. US indices like SPX and NDQ are yet to reverse but see how Indian indices are optimistic. For tomorrow we wish to start with a neutral stance and then add on bullish positions if the momentum gains. BankNifty Algos managed to end the day with a gain of Rs31488.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
22 Apr - Nifty50 gets a stance change, not bearish - but neutralNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: "I strongly think it was an intense short covering that fueled this rally and hence does not wish to alter my bearish stance. If we get past 22295 on Monday or Tuesday, I would change the stance to neutral." Nifty snaps out of bearishness by breaking the 22295 resistance. Even though we had an unusual gap-up, we ended up almost closing it by 09.47. However, the Bears were not able to drive down the prices further indicating a lack of conviction.  Nifty spent considerable time at the 22295 zone, visible from the blue encircled region before breaking out at 14.39. Just think about it, N50 came from 21777 to 22375 today in just 2 sessions, close to 600 points. The 63mts time frame is not bullish yet, but we are not bearish now. The best we can think of right now is to go neutral. If we fall back below 22295 tomorrow, we might even go short. 22519 would be an interim resistance on the upside above which we would like to go long. --- Algo trading - ended up losing 6003 on N50 algo trades today.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
19 Apr 2024 BankNifty all 6 candles in GREEN, 1093pts rallyBankNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish⬇️ BankNifty was more dramatic versus N50, it went ahead and rallied 1093pts ~ 2.35% and ended up taking out the crucial resistance of 47465. The momentum favors a stance change to neutral, but I would like to wait for one more day for confirmation. The lowest point of the day was hit in the opening candle and the highest point in the last candle - so much drama. And never in the rally today there was an attempt to break the upward direction. Unlike N50, hard to believe that it was short covering here - it looks like more of a long build-up. Again luckily did not switch on the Algos today, or else would have lost approximately 60k. 46284 support level was added today, but BN took support at 46592 levels itself. All 6 candles were in GREEN today - unbelievable momentum.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
18 Apr - BankNifty Algos did well as it was not expiry todayBankNifty Analysis — Stance Bearish⬇️ “The power of a strong support/resistance zone will help you in your technical analysis” — Anonymous. See what happened today, BN started strong and was keeping its head above the 47465 support for a long time. Between 10.19 to 10.31, there was an attempt to break this SR, but it failed. BN reclaimed the 47700 levels and was coasting perfectly when the flash crash happened. Between 13.23 to 13.27, BN gave away 557pts ~ 1.17% also ensuring the SR breach. By 13.39, the breach was confirmed and BN continued its downward moves. A session low of 46982 was hit at 15.15 post which we had a 240+ pts recovery. The last 4 candles on the 63mts TF are all red and the support of 47465 has yielded. I am yet to mark the next support level, which I will do by tomorrow. I wish to hold on to my bearish view for tomorrow as well. The Algo on BN was in good shape till the 13.23 impact took away the gains. Ended the day with a loss of 40,724.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
16 Apr - BankNifty takes support, 47465 crucial for trend conti.BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish⬇️ BN managed to hold on to 47465 levels quite decently. All intraday straddlers would have had a decent day as there were no swings or whipsaws. We opened below the 47465 level but managed to close above it giving some hope to the Bulls. If we close above 47465 levels on the 18th, I might change my stance from bearish to neutral. For bearish continuation, we need strong downside momentum - agreed that we lost 288pts ~ 0.6% today, but not breaking the support level is considered a negation of the trend. In the higher time frame, this is more obvious. See the closing 63mts candle, it is strong green with the lower part of the body right at the 47465 level. The next move would be more based on news than technical analysis, so it would even make sense to keep a close eye on macros like Iran-Israel conflict. --- BN algos ended the day with a profit of 26757, again exited prematurely in the opening 30mts itself as the time condition of the profits were met.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
16 Apr 2024 -  Nifty Below 22295, Above 22051, Still BearishNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish⬇️ Recap from yesterday: "Ideally, we need one more red candle below 22295 for some bearish safety. 22051 is the next support level which could be taken out pretty easily if the shorts pick up momentum." Nifty hits an intraday low of 22079 today and a decent recovery to end the day at 22177 (22147 weighted average close). Honestly, the dip buyers were not that aggressive, but the bears were not really able to push down the prices.  If you look at the higher time frame i.e. 63mts, our closing today is almost midway between 22295 and 22051. Tomorrow 17th April is a holiday, so our markets will only resume trading on 18th. Thursday we have the Nifty50 expiry, so that makes things more exciting.  For bearish continuation, we need to take out the 22051, whereas for Neutral stance shift, we need to take out 22295. If we fall further below 21913 then that would also mean the negation of inverse H&S pattern of 20th March 2024. The Nifty50 algo trades ended with a profit of 9195, exited prematurely in the opening 30 minutes itself
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
15 Apr - BN 47465 has to be taken out for strong bearishness⬇️BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish⬇️ BN had a unique price action today, unlike N50 we did not see a bounce from the banks. And the lows made during the closing hours were much deeper than the opening lows. Whereas Nifty's opening low was not violated that much. Ideally, that is expected, the subsectors would fall further than the main index. I am revising the stance on BankNifty to bearish not because of technical reasons - but due to Nifty50's bearishness + worsening global macro. Ideally, BN will have to take out 47465 to go bearish, which I suppose may be done within the opening hours of tomorrow.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
15 Apr 2024–22295 support is taken out, I am short ⬇️ Nifty50Nifty Analysis - Stance Bearish⬇️ Recap from yesterday: "On the higher time frame, we have a double top formation (M pattern). To negate the pattern we would have to take out the ATH, otherwise, it looks like a nice setup to go bearish. 22519 is a good interim support level, the main support comes only at 22295." I personally did not punch any manual or non-directional Algo trades today. The only trades I took were the directional trend strategy. Since 22295 support is broken, my view has changed from neutral to bearish. If Nifty can give a close above 22295 then I might roll back my stance to neutral again. The reason I did not place orders today was due to the assumption that the markets may behave irrationally today. VIX was very low, so a surge could offset the premiums in such a way that it could create unwanted slippage. Well, after backtesting with today's data, I felt it was a stupid idea to have waited on the sidelines and not played. The M pattern assumes more meaning now on the 63mts TF. Ideally, we need one more red candle below 22295 for some bearish safety. 22051 is the next support level which could be taken out pretty easily if the shorts pick up momentum. I hope the BTFD takes some rest for few days so that the Bears can do their thing.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
2 Apr– Nifty50 - 4 RED Candles, first real sign of reversal?Nifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️️ Recap from yesterday: "As I write this article, SPX, NDQ, and DJI are down over 1.1%. A spillover effect is definite but because we have a holiday tomorrow, we might have another day of US stock market action left to react." The first real sign of a breakdown. US CPI came in hot due to which the markets reacted pretty badly on Wednesday. Thursday the markets gained back some points, but I strongly think the fall in our markets had more to do with the "Iran - Israel" tensions than inflation. The reason I am saying that is because after the gap-down open, we made a swing low but then recovered nicely from 09.43 to 12.07. From 12.07 to close we lost 192 points ~ 0.85%. We changed the stance from Bullish to Neutral as soon as 22689 levels were breached. Ideally, we should have changed the status to bearish as the afternoon momentum was quite good. The only reason we did not do that was to check if the reaction was a little too much, if we continue to maintain the same momentum on Monday - we will look out for bearish opportunities. On the higher time frame, we have a double top formation (M pattern). To negate the pattern we would have to take out the ATH, otherwise, it looks like a nice setup to go bearish. 22519 is a good interim support level, the main support comes only at 22295. I started Algo trading on Nifty50 today and ended the day with a gain of Rs9465. Exited prematurely at 09.44 as soon as the markets started to crack.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
12 Apr - BankNifty was not that bearish, but a HH is formed.BankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️️ BankNifty did not fall as much as Nifty50 today, we opened -244pts as gap-down, and the first candle itself was a strong green candle which gave the impression that the Bears may lose control. The follow-up action was good enough and we retested the swing low by 09.47 giving some hope, but again the markets started recovering till 12.11. I was posting in our trader's chat group that if we stay like this the short covering will come in and we may end up going up and that is exactly when the 2nd round of selling came in. In the second leg, we lost another 311 points ~ 0.64%. On the 63mts TF, BankNifty ended up creating the higher high. To know if the bullish trend is at threat or not - we should take out the support of 47465 soon, but that is around 1000pts away. We would like to start Monday with a neutral stance and then take it up from there. --- BankNifty Algo trades ended with a gain of Rs7735. Prematurely exited at 09.44 sensing the markets were beginning to crack.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
10 Apr - The body of candles are getting shorter, end of bulls ?BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Banknifty was looking strong right from the start. Unlike Nifty, BN did not have a huge gap up, but the rising trend was clear and strong. The reason it was strong was because the moves were not wild swings but slow & steady.  If you look at the 63mts candlesticks, you can notice the body becoming smaller. Usually, it is a sign of tiredness by the bulls as we are in an uptrend. We will get to know that on Friday, we wish to maintain our bullish stance till then. --- Algo Trading Our Algos ended the day with a gain of Rs33351. I did not wait out the entire session and closed out the trades in advance expecting a wild move due to the US CPI news event.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
10 Apr - Falling VIX, Rising Markets and Lower UncertaintyNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: "For tomorrow also we are continuing our bullish view and would like to go neutral if we get a close below 22615" Nifty had a gap up opening and was stuck in a narrow range till 13.11 after which it picked up decent momentum. Nifty almost gained 101 points from the intraday low to take out the previous highs. The new ATH is now 22775. In the final 30 minutes, we gave away some gains but Nifty50 closed the day with a total gain of 111pts ~ 0.49% Just when we thought the momentum was fading, N50 managed to climb 100+ points and hit new highs. What is more interesting is that the US CPI (Inflation) data came hotter than expected. As I write this article, SPX, NDQ, and DJI are down over 1.1%. A spillover effect is definite but because we have a holiday tomorrow, we might have another day of US stock market action left to react. We wish to maintain our bullish stance and go neutral if we get a close below the 22689 levels.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram