02 Jan 25 - Direct stance change from bearish to bullish---
Nifty Stance Bullish ⬆
In the last post mortem report, I did indicate the change of stance if Nifty goes above 24177. Nifty has a close of 24188 (weighted average) and 24167 (traded value) - so I cannot say with a 100% guarantee if we got a real close above 24177 or not. The 445 pts ~ 1.88% move today gives nifty a direct stance change from bearish to bullish (no neutral stance).
We are up 409pts ~ 1.72% of which 445pts came today, which also means that the stance was bearish till the 2nd of Jan 2025. What happened today is beyond comprehension, I am almost sure that none of the traders were ready for the move like this.
Nifty has moved 728pts intra week of which 445pts came today.
The USDINR chart is also relevant here, especially the mega move once we got a governor change. I think this is an inflection point and a weakening rupee (no firefighting by the RBI) is good for inflows.
Returning to the Nifty report, a fall below 23931 will shift my stance back to bearish so it is pretty important that Nifty holds the level today. If we continue to go up the crucial resistance levels would be 24348 and 24547. I hope we do not go above 24650 for the current expiry.
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The change in regulations is hitting professional traders more than the entry level retail ones. SEBI's new set of rules was implemented to turn off the small traders and since most of them do the options buying, the impact is not that much. The professional traders on the other hand are really going crazy as the new margin requirements are not at all helping.
When you take out the professional traders from the equation, they would prefer to trade on forex, crypto or the US options than the Indian counterpart. It is just a matter of time before we see the intellectual migration to the mother market. The whine and the roar on X is proof that influencers have started talking about alternate trading options. Personally, I feel if most of them get access to a stable market - they would not hesitate to migrate.
Niftylevels
NIFTY analysis for tomorrow 03 JAN 24As we discussed, the NIFTY has been in sideways accumulation phase, it has broken to upside.
If we look at the chart now:
The market is trading at 50 EMA (1D-tf) and 200 EMA (4H-tf) resistance levels. Also, the market has given good bullish momentum today. Tomorrow might be a small side day. Also, the market is trading near the resistance level, which is going to provide good resistance. Important levels and trendlines have been marked on the chart.
Support levels: 200 EMA, 23950, 50 EMA (23800)
Resistance levels: 24167, Trendline (PINK), 24330
If we look at the OI data:
PCR = 1.2, which shows a good bullish structure in the market. The market has 24200 as max pain. As it is the very beginning of the weekly expiry, OI data is not going to play a very crucial role. Lower sides 24000, 23900, and 23800 have very good PE writing, so bulls are quite strong on lower levels. On higher levels, 24500 has good CE writing, which is going to provide good resistance.
I am expecting
The market is to be sideways unless it breaks the PINK trendline.
Reason:
RSI = 77 shows a bullish structure. (Bullish) -
Price > EMA(13, 50, 200), which indicates a good Bullish structure. (Bullish)
PCR = 1.2 indicates bullish direction in the market.
Price > VWAP shows a good bullish structure in the market.
Verdict: Sideways or Bullish
Plan of action:
Sell 24200 CE and Sell 24200. PE holds it in the range. Exit one leg if it breaks to one side.
Nifty levels - Jan 03, 2025Nifty support and resistance levels are valuable tools for making informed trading decisions, specifically when combined with the analysis of 5-minute timeframe candlesticks and VWAP. By closely monitoring these levels and observing the price movements within this timeframe, traders can enhance the accuracy of their entry and exit points. It is important to bear in mind that support and resistance levels are not fixed, and they can change over time as market conditions evolve.
The dashed lines on the chart indicate the reaction levels, serving as additional points of significance to consider. Furthermore, take note of the response at the levels of the High, Low, and Close values from the day prior.
We hope you find this information beneficial in your trading endeavors.
* If you found the idea appealing, kindly tap the Boost icon located below the chart. We encourage you to share your thoughts and comments regarding it.
Wishing you success in your trading activities!
Nifty weekly expiry analysis for 02/01/2025.Tomorrow is nifty first weekly expiry of the year.
A consolidation is going on in the index and today also it closed in a range.
If there is break out of the trendline on the upper side, chances of market retesting 24k levels are high.
In case of a fail and market trading downside, a trend downside possibilities are there.
20-EMA and 50-EMA are acting as a resistance and once cleared higher EMAs can be tested.
Option buyer be cautious of the expiry premium decay. Only trade the momentum.
Major levels
Upper resistance :- 24850, 24080
Lower support :- 23550, 23330.
Nifty levels - Jan 02, 2025Nifty support and resistance levels are valuable tools for making informed trading decisions, specifically when combined with the analysis of 5-minute timeframe candlesticks and VWAP. By closely monitoring these levels and observing the price movements within this timeframe, traders can enhance the accuracy of their entry and exit points. It is important to bear in mind that support and resistance levels are not fixed, and they can change over time as market conditions evolve.
The dashed lines on the chart indicate the reaction levels, serving as additional points of significance to consider. Furthermore, take note of the response at the levels of the High, Low, and Close values from the day prior.
We hope you find this information beneficial in your trading endeavors.
* If you found the idea appealing, kindly tap the Boost icon located below the chart. We encourage you to share your thoughts and comments regarding it.
Wishing you success in your trading activities!
Nifty levels - Jan 01, 2025Nifty support and resistance levels are valuable tools for making informed trading decisions, specifically when combined with the analysis of 5-minute timeframe candlesticks and VWAP. By closely monitoring these levels and observing the price movements within this timeframe, traders can enhance the accuracy of their entry and exit points. It is important to bear in mind that support and resistance levels are not fixed, and they can change over time as market conditions evolve.
The dashed lines on the chart indicate the reaction levels, serving as additional points of significance to consider. Furthermore, take note of the response at the levels of the High, Low, and Close values from the day prior.
We hope you find this information beneficial in your trading endeavors.
* If you found the idea appealing, kindly tap the Boost icon located below the chart. We encourage you to share your thoughts and comments regarding it.
Wishing you success in your trading activities!
Nifty levels - Dec 31, 2024Nifty support and resistance levels are valuable tools for making informed trading decisions, specifically when combined with the analysis of 5-minute timeframe candlesticks and VWAP. By closely monitoring these levels and observing the price movements within this timeframe, traders can enhance the accuracy of their entry and exit points. It is important to bear in mind that support and resistance levels are not fixed, and they can change over time as market conditions evolve.
The dashed lines on the chart indicate the reaction levels, serving as additional points of significance to consider. Furthermore, take note of the response at the levels of the High, Low, and Close values from the day prior.
We hope you find this information beneficial in your trading endeavors.
* If you found the idea appealing, kindly tap the Boost icon located below the chart. We encourage you to share your thoughts and comments regarding it.
Wishing you success in your trading activities!
NIFTY50 - REVERSAL SWING TRADE ON LONG SIDESymbol - NIFTY50
NIFTY is currently trading at 23585
I'm seeing a trading opportunity on buy side.
Buying NIFTY Futures at 23585
I will add more long position at 23435, if comes.
Holding with SL of 23275
Targets I'm expecting are 24080 - 24210 - 24400
Disclaimer - Do not consider this as a buy/sell recommendation. I'm sharing my analysis & my trading position. You can track it for educational purposes. Thanks!
NIFTY Intraday Trade Setup 30 Dec 2024NIFTY Intraday Trade Setup 30 Dec 2024
Bullish-Above 23965
Invalid-Below 23915
T- 24200+
Bearish-Below 23790
Invalid-Above 23840
T- 23550
NIFTY has closed on a halt note with minor gain of 0.96% last week. It has traded in a narrow range of 1% the whole week. It has compressed and formed a inside candle in weekly TF. We will maintain bearish stance and sell on rise approach till index trades below 50 EMA. Bearish sentiment will be stronger till it closes below PDH. 23965 and 23790 are intra levels for Monday.
Coming to Monday's trade setup, if index opens flat and a 15 Min candle closes above 23965 then we will long for the target of 24200.
For selling we need a 15 Min candle closes below 23790. T- 23550.
In case of a big gap up/down, wait till 10 o'clock and mark the high and low of the trading range (5MIN). Trade on this range breakout.
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I am Not SEBI Registered
This is my personal analysis for my personal trading. Kindly consult your financial advisor before taking any actions based on this.
Nifty levels - Dec 30, 2024Nifty support and resistance levels are valuable tools for making informed trading decisions, specifically when combined with the analysis of 5-minute timeframe candlesticks and VWAP. By closely monitoring these levels and observing the price movements within this timeframe, traders can enhance the accuracy of their entry and exit points. It is important to bear in mind that support and resistance levels are not fixed, and they can change over time as market conditions evolve.
The dashed lines on the chart indicate the reaction levels, serving as additional points of significance to consider. Furthermore, take note of the response at the levels of the High, Low, and Close values from the day prior.
We hope you find this information beneficial in your trading endeavors.
* If you found the idea appealing, kindly tap the Boost icon located below the chart. We encourage you to share your thoughts and comments regarding it.
Wishing you success in your trading activities!
#Nifty directions and levels for Friday, December 27th:Good Morning, friends! 🌞
Here are the market directions and levels for Friday, December 27th:
Market Overview
The global market shows a moderately bullish sentiment (based on Dow Jones), but our local market is leaning toward a moderately bearish sentiment. Today, the market may open neutral or slightly gap-up, as the Gift Nifty indicates a 40-point positive start.
In the previous session, Nifty and Bank Nifty moved in different directions; however, by the end of the day, both closed near the middle of their respective ranges. We are still in a range-bound market, and until the range is broken, we cannot expect any significant directional movement.
What about today?
It’s a bit difficult to say because Nifty is showing signs of a pullback move, while Bank Nifty is indicating a downtrend. How can we interpret this? Whenever the market exhibits such conflicting signals, it mostly leans toward consolidation. However, if both indices move in the same direction and a proper signal occurs, we can consider taking a position.
This is the basic structure. Let’s analyze the chart for more insights.
Nifty Current View
The current view suggests that if the gap-up sustains, we can expect a pullback toward 38% on the upside. After that, if rejection occurs at this level, a correction can be expected. On the other hand, if the pullback has a solid structure and is followed by a range breakout (above 38%), the pullback is likely to continue further.
Alternate View: If the market declines after the gap-up, the range-bound scenario will likely persist. In this case, the corrective targets are expected to reach a minimum of 23,609.
26th Dec '24 - Last Expiry of Calendar year, Nifty is bearishNifty Stance Bearish ⬇
On a week-to-week basis, we only fell 204pts ~ 0.85%, but things definitely did not look good last Friday. We could have easily taken out the 23350 levels but the reversal on Monday halted the momentum. I guess the sellers will have to rally the market again to push it down later.
On Friday, Nifty had a high of 24065 and a low of 23537, a spread of 528 points. Everything pointed southward and our bearish plan was getting executed as per the script.
On Monday, we had a temporary retracement - maybe the excess shorts would have covered, this took us to almost 50% of the Fibonacci fall levels of the previous day. Unfortunately on Tuesday, we did not have that continuity and Wednesday was a holiday due to Christmas. I thought we might have a trending day today, but that plan also failed.
I have still my hopes pinned on further bearish moves, but not before we go up a little bit because at current levels I do not see any one-sided momentum. The catch is if we fall from the current levels without a trigger, then the downward push will be much more brutal. 24177 would be a resistance above which I would go bullish.
Nifty Trading Strategy for 26th December 2024Nifty Trading Strategy
Key Levels:
Buy Above: The high of the 15-minute candle that closes above 23,780
Sell Below: The low of the 15-minute candle that closes below 23,675
Targets:
Upside Targets: 23,825, 23,868, 23,920
Downside Targets: 23,640, 23,580, 23,550
Strategy Details:
Buy Signal: Enter a buy position above the high of the 15-minute candle that closes above 23,780, aiming for targets of 23,825, 23,868, and 23,920.
Sell Signal: Enter a sell position below the low of the 15-minute candle that closes below 23,675, aiming for targets of 23,640, 23,580, and 23,550.
Trailing Stop-Loss: Use a trailing stop-loss to manage risk and protect your capital.
Book Profits: Regularly book profits at the specified resistance and support levels.
Disclaimer:
I am Not SEBI Registered. This strategy is based on historical data and technical analysis. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading involves risk, and you should only invest money that you can afford to lose. Always conduct your own research or consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.This only for Educational Purpose.
Nifty levels - Dec 26, 2024Nifty support and resistance levels are valuable tools for making informed trading decisions, specifically when combined with the analysis of 5-minute timeframe candlesticks and VWAP. By closely monitoring these levels and observing the price movements within this timeframe, traders can enhance the accuracy of their entry and exit points. It is important to bear in mind that support and resistance levels are not fixed, and they can change over time as market conditions evolve.
The dashed lines on the chart indicate the reaction levels, serving as additional points of significance to consider. Furthermore, take note of the response at the levels of the High, Low, and Close values from the day prior.
We hope you find this information beneficial in your trading endeavors.
* If you found the idea appealing, kindly tap the Boost icon located below the chart. We encourage you to share your thoughts and comments regarding it.
Wishing you success in your trading activities!
#Nifty directions and levels for December 24th.Good morning, friends! 🌞
Here are the market directions and levels for December 24th.
Market Overview:
The global market is showing a moderately bearish sentiment (based on the Dow Jones). Our local market is also displaying a moderately bearish trend. Today, the market may open with a neutral to slightly gap-down start, as the Gift Nifty indicates a 15-point negative sentiment.
In the previous session, there was no directional movement, even though it opened with a long gap-up. Structurally, today might continue this sentiment as we are progressing into the 4th sub-wave. We already discussed this in the previous post, so more or less, it will move based on this. Let’s explain this in the charts.
Both Nifty and Bank Nifty are currently showing the same structural sentiment.
Current View:
The current view suggests that if the initial market takes a pullback after some decline or if it opens with a gap-up, then we can expect a continuation of the pullback. Structurally, the 38% retracement could be a major resistance in this variation. As per the wave structure, it is unlikely to go beyond this level. If you find any reversal confirmation, we can consider entering a short position. Conversely, if the pullback breaks the 38% level, it could extend to the next resistance level. This is the basic structure.
Alternate View:
The alternate view suggests that if the gap-down sustains, we can expect a correction to the previous bottom. Until the bottom is broken, the market sentiment could remain range-bound. If it breaks, we can consider that a 5th correctional wave.
NIFTY Analysis for tomorrow 24 Dec 24As we discussed, the NIFTY sideways structure market has been sideways the whole time today. Also, it opened at +160 and closed at the same point.
If we look at the chart now:
The market is in a consolidation phase. Big players are accumulating the market. I am expecting the market to be sideways in the upcoming 2-3 sessions.
Support levels: 23529, 23361
Resistance levels: 50 EMA, 23930, 200 EMA
If we look at the OI data:
PCR = 0.8, which has increased from 0.7, shows put addition at the lower level. 23500 has good support points for having good PE writing. On higher levels, 24000 is a nice resistance point, as it has a good resistance point. It also considers 50 EMA and 200 EMA.
I am expecting
The market is to be sideways in the range of 23539 - 23930
Reason:
RSI ~ 40 shows a weak bullish structure. (Sideways)
Price < EMA(13, 50, 200), which indicates a good bearish structure. (Bearish)
PCR = 0.8 indicates bullish bias in the market.
price < VWAP shows a good bullish structure in the market.
Verdict: Sideways
Plan of action:
Sell 23700 CE and Sell 23700 PE hold it in the range. Exit one leg if it breaks to one side.
Nifty | Tuesday 24 Dec'24 | Trading Plan Nifty as mentioned in previous idea, is in C wave. Right now looks like have completed the w of C and in retracement. Two of the possible trade can be done as below:
1. Above the marked 23860, we can enter with target 1 of 23970 and target 2 of 24040 and further trailing with SL of 15 min intraday swing low.
2. Below the marked 23540, we can enter for short with target of 23350 and SL of 15 intraday swing high.
Disclaimer: I am not SEBI certified analyst and this not a buy/sell recommendation. It is only for educational and entertainment purposes.
NIFTY Intraday Trade Setup For 24 Dec 2024NIFTY Intraday Trade Setup For 24 Dec 2024
Bullish-Above 23900
Invalid-Below 23850
T- 24118
Bearish-Below 23530
Invalid-Above 23580
T- 23230
NIFTY has closed with 0.7% gain today. It is a doji candle in daily TF and whole closing gain is contributed though gap up. 23900 and 23530 looks a range as of now. Breakout of this will trigger move either side. Best trade looks in short side as market is sell on rise. Nothing triggered as per trade setup today.
Coming to Tuesday's trade setup, if index opens flat and a 15 Min candle closes above 23900 then we will long for the target of 24118.
For selling we need a 15 Min candle close below 23530. T- 23230.
In case of a big gap up/down, wait till 10 o'clock and mark the high and low of the trading range (5MIN). Trade on this range breakout.
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I am Not SEBI Registered
This is my personal analysis for my personal trading. Kindly consult your financial advisor before taking any actions based on this.