NIFTY 15 MINS WAVE COUNTSHi friends,
Nifty as per my previous analysis and follow up updates() failed to cross the #keyresistance and hence ended with #fakeout(failed breakout).
So as I expected further down swing or one more down swing...which did unfold decisively today.
what next..?
VIEW:
Expect to bottom out in the zone as shown in the chart.
Structure/Pattern:
impulse + double zigzag(irregular wave B) + impulse
Keynote for traders:
As I have been mentioning in my previous posts ;till key invalidation point is not breached I stay bullish in slightly bigger picture.
>>till major resistance is not taken out...all trades to be taken on the negative side in intraday. Positional traders should wait for "KEY RESISTANCE" breakout to "plan their entry" or they may take a bet as nifty approaches "key invalidation point for better risk/reward ratio.
Trading Plan:
#As there is pandemic fear one can hedge their long position in nifty if one wants to take a long bet near support zone(greenzone).DM me for any help with this regard.
#Look for confirmation near that support zone using one's own method(indicators/price action/moving average) and then go for long position
#Don't bet more than 2% of one capital for total risk in the trade.
#Disclaimer:
Above analysis can be referred to as educative in nature. One has to take decision as to trade as per his own risk.
Good Luck guys...keep trading...keep rocking 💥💥💥
Niftylong
Nifty 50Weekly chart of Nifty50.
The uptrend is clear and the support according to the weekly charts is 14470 levels. So we're already there.
I am going to vote for No Trade today even though I really want to buy but the Covid scenes are bad as of now.
Daily and Hourly chart study
The major support is at 14264.40. This means 14250 levels. There is no proper support before that.
If Nifty50 manages to break 14250 (which it should not) we might witness 13800.
* I don't think that we'll be breaking 14250 but you never know.
Nifty 50Script - Nifty 50
CMP - 14683.50
Resistance - 14780
Daily Charts
Current pattern (if any) - Looks like a symetrical triangle which is a bullish pattern
Candlestick Trend / Pattern - NA
DMA - Neutral
MACD - Neutral / Bearish
RSI - Neutral
Divergence - NA
Hourly Charts
Current pattern (if any) - A small rounded bottom bull pattern
Candlestick Trend / Pattern - NA
DMA - Neutral / Bearish
MACD - Neutral
RSI - Rounded bottom / bullish
Divergence - Undecided bear
Intraday Charts
Current pattern (if any) - Clear symetrical triangle
Candlestick Trend / Pattern - NA
DMA - Neutral / Bullish
MACD - Neutral
RSI - Neutral / Bullish
Divergence - NA
Final View - No Trade till we see a trend being made in 15m charts. Can expect a breakout above 14780
Nifty 50Nifty 50
15m Chart (Intraday Views)
Uptrend seems to be prominent.
RSI is in the overbought range which means we may correct a little to gain balance before continuing with the uptrend
MACD is giving mixed signals to we will ignore it.
Buy on Dips
1h Charts (Short to Medium Term Views)
Immediate support is at 14750 levels
Immediate resistance is at 15000 levels
RSI looks good as it is holding strong above the 50 levels
MACD is strong as well
Trend study shows that a new uptrend has been initiated
Buy on dips (wait for a dip) for 15000+ levels.
Daily Charts (Medium to Long Term Views)
Doji (bullish) followed by a confirmation candle shows strength
MACD shows signs of reversal towards a bullish zone
RSI has crossed the 50 levels yesterday and may confirm a bullish trend by EOD
Targets may be well over 15150 levels soon.
Nifty 50Nifty 50
Daily Charts (Medium to Long Term view)
The current trend is sideways but I am unable to decide if the pattern I see is bearish or bullish. So then we move on to other indicators and my favorite is RSI
RSI has a reversal and is moving upwards. We have to see if it maintains the upmove and crosses the 50 levels to be sure that Nifty 50 may be ready to fly.
The candles are still below the 20 moving average so I wouldn't be very confident yet.
Hourly Charts (Short to Medium Term view)
The purple line shows a double bottom which is a bullish pattern.
RSI resisted the 50 levels but I think that Nifty 50 does have a lot of strength and we'll see RSI cross into the bullish range.
MACD too is showing a reversal.
The current trend is still a downtrend but it can be broken soon.
15m Charts (Intraday views)
An uptrend is seen but not as strong as we'd like. We won't go short but we'll buy on dips.
RSI is taking support on 50 RSI which is a good sign.
MACD indicates weakness.
Buy on dips.
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Nifty 50Daily Charts (Medium to Long Term)
RSI is still below 50
Candles are still below the 20 day moving average and the trenline
Heikin Ashi is giving us some good signals as yesterday was a confirmation candle which indicates that the correction might just be over
Market has been range bound between 14280 levels and 15350 levels since 11th Jan 21 so we cannot have an uptrend unless we break 15350 levels and close above it but this doesn't mean that we have a downtrend either, we are now going sideways
Hourly Charts (Medium to Short Term)
The downtrend line has been broken and confirmation candle was made yesterday
RSI is above 50
MACD is bullish as well
Heikin Ashi has made an upmove again followed by a confirmation candle
This means that even if we open in red, we might just push our way through as this chart shows strength
15m Charts (Intraday)
Again a clear uptrend
RSI holding above 50
but MACD showed a reversal towards the closing
We will buy on dip or as and when we see a reversal happening.
Nifty 50Nifty 50
Daily Charts (Long to Medium Term)
RSI is below 50 levels and it clearly gives us a bearish signal.
Nifty is taking a turn after breaking 2 trendlines which means that the markets may go either way.
I couldn't get proper reading using candlesticks so I shifted to Heikin Ashi. The green candle which means that we may see a bull rally soon has been formed. The candle which will be made today will be considered as a confirmation candle so we can take a final call for BTST by 3pm today.
Hourly Charts (Medium to Short Term)
This gives us a little confidence as we can see RSI pushing its way above the 50 levels.
The last candle closed above the 20 day Moving Average which again is a strong sign.
MACD has green bars and the lines are moving upwards so again a good sign.
I didn't miss Heikin Ashi which has a confirmation candle to indicate an uptrend.
15m Charts (Short Term and Intraday)
Candles are comfortable above the 20 day moving average which is a good sign.
MACD has the lines arranged properly and green bars (buying) is prominent as well so again a good sign.
Downtrend line was broken and the levels are sustained which shows the strength.
RSI too has sustained above the 50 levels.
Making Heikin Ashi a habit, clear upmove is being displayed.
*Everything looks good as of now.
Supports at 14472 levels
Resistance at 14830 levels
Nifty 50Nifty 50
CMP 14604
Daily Chart (Medium to Long Term)
The black line is called the simple trendline. I did not use the parallel trendlines as we already know that the markets are either at the lower support line or below it.
The current scenario is that we have broken the trendline in the lower level but this doesn't mean that the trend has been changed. It means that we have to wait till our charts give us further indications but surely, there is nothing to panic as of now.
Hourly Chart (Short to Medium Term)
I found a minor support at 14495 (the orange line). I call it minor because nothing major has happened on this level but there are small zones where 14495 did act as a resistance or support.
Trend is sideways but we can expect a bounceback as we are very close to the support level but we can only be sure once we crossover and sustain 14760 levels (purple line) as this level has some major action since 21st Jan 21 and this will act as a strong resistance.
RSI too is in a bearish zone i.e. below 50.
15m Chart (Intraday)
I have found a rounded bottom pattern being made. This is a bullish pattern but there is also a possibility of cup and handle which again is a bullish pattern. I am super excited and I think it's time for traders to go long but with a lot of patience. The markets are volatile and you need to wait and hold and have a lot of patience.
Nifty 50Nifty 50
Hourly Chart (Medium to Short term)
We are very close to a very important support level of 14667. Tomorrow will be a crucial decider whether the downtrend will be broken or are we going towards 14200 levels.
I am not being able to understand any patterns or trends in the current scenario and hence I will maintain my simple call of No Trade.
If you are a trader who can take risk, you can go long on Nifty with Stop below 14660 levels in spot. I feel that we will not break 14600 levels as it has been a very strong level since 12th Jan 21.
Nifty 50Daily Chart (Medium to Long Term)
The trend remains positive but it's just a notch away from breaking the trendline. 14745 is a crutial support if Nifty 50 decides to correct itself.
The candle has closed below 20 VWMA and it needs to fight its way back up and above these levels.
RSI here has taken support at the 50 levels and has tried to make a reversal. Let's hope that we see a strong bounce back today because Nifty 50 is very close to going into a correction mode which may be a big one this time.
MACD shows some big selling happening as well and is flying dangerous close to the border. If it slips we enter the bearish zone as well.
*We are hanging on the edge and I will stay away for today.
Hourly Chart (Medium to Short Term)
This chart signals that Nifty 50 is range bound between 14750 and 15250 levels. A strong breakout and really surprise.
MACD has taken the first step towards entering the bull zone. We will wait and watch to see if it follows up on the new bull zone.
RSI worries me as it has resisted the 50 levels and a reversal was made towards the downside.
15m Charts (Intraday)
The opening may be weak as the charts show us a strong downtrend but we will have to wait for the charts to make new candles inorder to understand the Intraday trend.
RSI too shows us a downtrend and we need to see a very strong reversal for a breakout to happen here.
MACD has just crossed the border here and is about to enter the bearish zone. This can change if we see a strong bounceback.
The entire trade will depend on the momentum that Nifty 50 might show. Also, this is a weekly expiry so we may see a very strong bounceback that we need to see.
It is better not to earn rather than making a loss so my call is No Trade for now!
Nifty FuturesNifty Future
Daily Chart (Overall long-term)
I've 2 trendlines (blue). The first one is cut-off and the second one is the trendline that we are following now. Daily candles are taking support here and we can see a very strong upmove if anything funny doesn't happen.
The black dots are Parabolic SARS. Parabolic SARS is an indicator which if down signals buying and if the dots are up means we may see a down-move. This indicator is giving us a buying signal as of now.
You'll see the the candle is also taking support on the 20 MA. The zone above 20 MA is bullish and viceversa.
The RSI has taken a turn upwards from the 50 levels which is also a signal of strength.
Overall the daily charts don't scare me as of now.
Hourly Chart (Short to Medium term)
The candle will have to make a very strong upmove above the 20 MA to enter the bullish zone which is very much possible. We can see weakness as the candle is currently below the 20 MA.
*20 MA can be treated as a current trendline for beginners.
RSI too needs to bounce back up as it has resisted the 50 levels which again is not a bull zone
Candles didn't give me many signals so I shifted to Heikin Ashi which does show strength though a strong upmove is still needed to be sure.
Overall, the trend doesn't look bearish but it surely indicates laziness on the hourly charts.
15m Chart (Intraday)
Parabolic SARS show a bullish signal
The candles are trading above the 20 MA which again is good
RSI shows a downtrend which again needs to change
My call here will be No Trade till the RSI shows a reversal above 50 levels.