24 Jan ’24 — The Trap Laid by the Bears is Bust Open - Nifty50Nifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️
Recap from yesterday: “We broke the 21491 support by 12.24. Just look at the strength of the candles today — 5 RED candles followed by a Doji. Our stance changed from neutral to bearish as soon as the support was breached.”
4mts chart
The open was perfect - a good gap-down followed by selling pressure, but the 2nd candle gave it away. By 09.19 - the gap was officially closed and Nifty was steaming with upside momentum. A part of me believed that the rise-up was part of the lower-high creation and that the shape of the bear attack was still intact. My conviction was cemented between 10.35 to 12.39 wherein we dropped 195+ points. What happened next was simply dramatic. Nifty rose 266pts ~ 1.25% between 12.39 to close. In total, it swung 347pts from LOD to HOD, of which 76% came after 12.39.
63mts chart
The issue for the bears from the 63mts chart is the W formation (double bottom). To prove they are still in the game, the Bears must create a big fall and ensure an M pattern supersedes the W. Due to the momentum the bulls got today, we are changing the stance from bearish to neutral. The first target would be to take out the 214991 resistance and nullify the 5 RED candles formed on 23rd. If we were to move downwards, the swing low of 21372 has to be taken out tomorrow itself. Hope we have a volatile monthly expiry tomorrow.
Niftynse
Nifty Future Chart Analysis for 08.12.2023If price break over 21060, then it may face strong resistance of 21075, above
21075 , price may gain good strong momentum and may reach to the level of 21130
crossing above 21095.
As you can see here that bollinger bands made short squeeze, if it goes
below 20994 then it will also break long trend, it can easily reach to the
level of 20953, and then 20915.
4th Dec ’23 - 418pts breakout on election results - Nifty50Nifty Analysis
Recap from yesterday: “I would like to see this as a breakout with a new higher high in the cards. For this to happen, BankNifty has to reclaim its ATH”
5mts chart link - click here
For those long on Friday, it would have been a dream come true. 347pts gap-up open followed by a steady and healthy rally. We ended up gaining 418pts ~ 2.07% today. When was the last time you saw a 2% move upwards?
It was not purely a technical move (breakout) that led to these gains, it was news flow-related. BJP won 3 state elections i.e. Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh & Chattisgarh giving a strong signal that the Lok Sabha elections for 2024 are almost in their pocket.
The rally had nothing to do with BJP per se, markets always love stability. So irrespective of the party, whichever faction is at the centre - if they keep winning the elections, markets will go euphoric. The purchase volumes from the institutions is a clear proof.
1hr chart link - click here
Nifty has made an island today and is in uncharted territory. If the momentum persists, we can see unusual outperformances. If there is negative news or weakening global macros - we can see a fall too. Since we have broken out from an ATH, the chances of momentum continuation are higher. I would continue to hold on to my long stance. The first reversal point is at 20300 levels which is quite deep even for a stop-loss trigger.
Nifty daily analysis for 08/11/23.Nifty has been forming gaps as there are gap up for last 2-3 trading sessions and is trading above both the daily moving averages.
On the hourly charts, the market seems to be consolidating in a range for last 2 days.
A break out can give a nice rally and nifty has more chances than the expiry index tomorrow.
Support :- 19330, 19270
Resistance ;- 19430, 19510
Wait for the market to give a break out or break down and watch for the price action near the level before entering the market.
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Nifty Spot Price : 19281.8 - India Vix Spot : 10.91% -
Nifty Daily Range : 19149 To - 19414-
Watch Option Strike : If Above Break Even Point Buy : 19250 CE
Watch Option Strike : If Below Break Even Point Buy : 19350 PE
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5. After Retracement.... Stop Loss is Above Or Below Break Even Point..
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Nifty weekly analysis for 23/10/23Nifty has been taking support around the round figure number of 19500 and has formed a kind of tweezer top on the weekly charts.
The market has been volatile and still confused in deciding the trend.
It has closed below the 20 ema on the daily charts. There is an inside candle or a halt candle after a gap down opening.
Market has been consolidating in a range from 21 september and the month of october has entered the last week of the month.
High chance of a break out or break down are there. It can give nice targets with a small Stop loss in a trade.
On the hourly chart, there is a bearish moving averages cross over and it remained in the first hour candle after a gap down opening.
Still the markets are hitting the stop losses and are not profitable for an intraday option buyers.
Sideway cycle of the market will be changed once it starts trading outside the major levels of 19500 to 19850. Once this range is cleared on the either side there will be a trending market.
On the smaller time frame, market hasn't moved much while taking resistnace from the 20 ema and closed below both the moving averages (15 minute chart).
Support :- 19480-500, 19350
Resistance :- 19580, 19680
Market has been consolidating after a gap up or gap down opening and there will be a movement once it opens flat.
Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
Monthly perspective - Tight Price ChannelPrice Range: 19200 to 19900, tight range, Charactics,
Institutional Data: Heavy Selling in past 45 days, the amount is reflected in attached screenshot.
Relative strength : Bullish
Upside: 19800-19900 is crucial range
Downside: Below 19200,
Support range 18100, 17400.
What should be done?
19200-19900 is NO ACT ZONE
Nifty weekly analysis for 19/10/23.Today there was a nice fall in the indian markets and nifty has given closed 140 points lower forming a nice bearish candle.
It has closed below the 20 ema which is round 19700 level. There are chance of nifty holding the market as there was less fall in the index as compare to banknifty.
On the hourly charts, it has closed below both the moving averages and there are high chances of market following the fall.
There is also a bearish moving averages cross over, on smaller time frame, which also show there can be a fall in coming days.
RSI indicator is showing some bearish divergence on the higher intraday time frame.
Watch for option premiums as tomorrow is the weekly expiry. Only one more week will be left in the october month.
Support :- 19580, 19480-500
Resistance :- 19720, 19780
Market were in the consolidation phase and after few days it has given a nice trending move. If the global sentiment also align with today's move, there are high chance of market testing 18900 levels soon.
Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
Nifty future chart analysis for 12.10.202319893 strong resistance if price takes resistance here you may see another sideways.
crossing above 19893 will provide price a strong upward movementand it may easily reach
19957 and may retest or cross pass 20k.
19815 (Strong Support if takes support here go long and follow levels)
below 19815 it may little week , but 19765 is another strong support
you may short below 19815 (Chance of false breakout is high) but you
can long from 19765 if it takes support.
Nifty daily analysis for 10/10/23.Nifty after a gap down opening due to the global cues remained in a narrow range and closed 140 points lower taking support around 19500 levels.
On the daily charts, it has formed a doji candle and is still trading below the 20 ema.
On the hourly charts, market opened below both the moving averages and tested the 20 ema. It took resistance from the levels and closed around day's close.
The market reacted to the international news and after a gap down tried to regain some points.
Nifty remained stronger than the other index. Market trend is still indecided and there is no opportunity of a positional trend follower.
There is a bearish moving averages cross over, on 15 minutes charts, and it has retested the 20 ema.
Support :- 19500, 19350
Resistance :- 19575, 19730-50
Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
Nifty daily analysis for 26/09/23.Nifty has formed a perfect doji on the daily charts after testing 61.8% fibonacci levels. It is trading below the 20 ema.
The market has given a nice fall after forming a new ATH and is now giving a consolidation.
On the hourly charts, it has closed below both the moving averages and is taking resistance from 200 ema. There are chance of a cross over.
There was a nice consolidation in the market and there was a good move in both the directions. This confusing market will take the profits and even cause more losses.
It would be wise to wait and watch for a trending move in the markets.
Support :- 19600, 19500
Resistance :- 19730, 19800
Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
18 Sep ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty - short below 20070Nifty Analysis
Recap from yesterday: “For Monday I wish to maintain the same 50% neutral 50% bullish stance. And wish to go short if 20100 level is getting taken out.” . Nifty was not neutral today, had a negative bias, but did not fall below 20100 to go short.
On Friday SPX closed -1.22% down sending a strong negative message, but it seems like our markets were not afraid. The pre-open today showed a -0.23% probable open - but the real open was just 0.04% down. The first candle swung to a low of 20121 which was respected till 15.15. Just imagine - a market that doesnt get bothered by what is happening globally. Even though over-valued, over-extended rally - still no fear of a fall or correction. There is something special about Indian stock markets.
I was almost out of words for this tweet - not just small and midcaps but even the large caps are overbought.
On the 1hr TF, I will be quite happy if this turns out to be the new top formation. Since the 20100 level was not taken out today, I was not able to take new short positions. We have a holiday tomorrow, but when we resume on Wednesday - I would really prefer if 20070 is taken out, till then I would prefer to stay neutral.
Nifty weekly expiry analysis for 14/09/23.Nifty has formed an inside candle on the daily charts and has closed 76 points higher near the previous day high.
It gave a bullish move and consolidated in the second half while banknifty kept on moving higher and higher. It is already trading near the ATH and tomorrow being a weekly expiry there can be a retracement on the chart.
On the hourly charts, there was a nice support from 19940 levels and it tried to give a move after a consolidation period.
During the initial hours the market was volatile and it traded around 15 minute's 20 ema. It has created a base around 19940 levels and has also taken support fromt the moving averages in the last hour.
There are chance of market taking a halt as it has given a nice up move without any serious retracement.
Support :- 20020, 19940
Resistance :- 20110, 20200
Nifty has travelled alot and is now being at the ATH its difficult for it to sustain longer without a retest. Watch for option premiums as it weekly expiry for nifty.
Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
Nifty daily analysis for 25/08/23.Nifty after a gap up opening gave a selling and closed below the 20 ema and has formed an engulfing candle.
On the hourly charts, after the first hour is came for selling and continued the sell off, closing 57 points lower near the support level and below both the moving averages.
Global market are too trading in negative and if nifty starts trading below 19250 levels there will be a panice selling as it has bounced from that levels and the support is becoming weak.
On 15 minutes chart, the moving averages are close enough and there will be a bearish cross over if there is another sell off.
There are chance of a bearish trend as a fake out has been proved in nifty. Though, banknifty tried to remain in the green but has closed only 17 points higher which is a flat closing.
Support :- 19370, 19260
Resistance :- 19480, 19550
Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
Nifty weekly analysis for 21/08/23.Nifty of consecutive four weeks have been forming a red candle and is making a support zone around 19250-300 levels.
Market has tested another low this week but there is some buying happening around 19250 levels and it has been tested twice this week.
On daily charts, market has formed another doji which signifies a confusion in the markets. Nifty has been trading below 20 ema.
Nifty is around a crucial levels, if the support zone of 19250 is also breached then there are chances of market going to 18900-19000 levels as there is no support near by.
On the hourly charts, there is a bearish moving averages cross over and market is taking serious rejection from 200 and 20 EMAs.
Market is being volatile to sideways and there are chance of a trending market as it has been trading in a very small range.
Support :- 19260, 19180, 19000
Resistance :- 19360, 19460
Gap up and gap down are limiting opportunities for an intraday trader. Watch markets carefully and let market decide the trend.
Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.