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24 Apr 2024– Neutral and Out of steam, what is next? Nifty50Nifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: "For tomorrow we wish to start the day with a neutral stance and look for bullish opportunities as soon as it reaches for the 22519 levels." Another flat day, but the options premiums were not behaving as usual. The blame may be on VIX as the premiums were dead low that even a small 50+ points move created a huge skew between the Put and Call prices. India vix staying @ 10.2 levels is not a good sign for professional options traders as a small move will upset the premiums. A better alternative is you use spreads like credit/debit spreads - buy a strike, sell strike+1 etc, so that the premiums move in tandem and the volatility contraction may not impact that much. But I assume most of the Algos may not have spreads as the core strategy, to begin with. For tomorrow, we wish to maintain the neutral stance and look for bearish opportunities if 22295 is getting broken. If the index moves up, 22519 would be our first level to watch for. Algos ended up gaining Rs5496 today.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
Nifty monthly expiry levels for intraday trade 25/04/24.The index for last 2 trading session is consolidating in a range between 22350-22480 and is sustaining above the moving averages. A halt candle has been formed after a gap down opening which signifies that the market may give a trending move in coming days. The drop in the VIX has killed the option premiums and there was option buyers are waiting for a buying opportunity in the market. Tomorrow is the monthly expiry for the index and as the market is behaving a move can be seen, if there is a slight gap up/down or a flat opening. If there is a flat opening and consolidation in the first half, the break out or break down in the second half can give a trending move. Major Support levels:-22330, 22240 Resistance levels :- 22480, 22610 Market has remained volatile this whole month. For last 3 months dojis can be seen on the charts showing confusion among the market participants. Wait for the market to clear the trend for positional trades. Price action around the levels should be there for entering a trade.
NSE:NIFTY
by TheMamboMomentum
NIFTY Intraday Trade Setup For 24 Apr 2024NIFTY Intraday Trade Setup For 24 Apr 2024 Bullish-Above 22450 Invalid-Below 22400 T- 22665 Bearish-Below 22340 Invalid-Above 22390 T- 22140 NIFTY has closed on a flat note today. Index opened with a 100 points gap up and then index turned sideways. 10 o'clock range was to be used as per trade setup but index did not break and traded within a tight range of less than 100 points. VIX crashed drastically and by this index once again is not good for intraday traders. VIX above 15-16 will bring intraday tradable environment. Index looks week below 22340 and this looks probable tomorrow. Coming to Wednesday's trade setup, if index opens flat and a 15 Min candle closes above 22450 then we will long for the target of 22665. For selling we need a 15 Min candle close below 22340. T- 22140. In case of a big gap up/down, wait till 10 o'clock and mark the high and low of the trading range (5MIN). Trade on this range breakout. ========== I am Not SEBI Registered This is my personal analysis for my personal trading. Kindly consult your financial advisor before taking any actions based on this.
NSE:NIFTY
by Omahto
Nifty is near resistance area - 22390 - 22400Nifty is near resistance area - 22390 - 22400 for 2 reasons, In charts its at reversal fib level of 0.618 and in derivatives data showing more call writers in Nifty and BN Index and in most of the BN - bank derivatives. I am not sure how index is going to fall in next 2 to 3 days remaining in this April contract. Either fall will be steep and faster or else break out will be with big green bars and bear gang including me has to book some losses in case of further strong upmove.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by venkatfx
22 Apr - Nifty50 gets a stance change, not bearish - but neutralNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: "I strongly think it was an intense short covering that fueled this rally and hence does not wish to alter my bearish stance. If we get past 22295 on Monday or Tuesday, I would change the stance to neutral." Nifty snaps out of bearishness by breaking the 22295 resistance. Even though we had an unusual gap-up, we ended up almost closing it by 09.47. However, the Bears were not able to drive down the prices further indicating a lack of conviction.  Nifty spent considerable time at the 22295 zone, visible from the blue encircled region before breaking out at 14.39. Just think about it, N50 came from 21777 to 22375 today in just 2 sessions, close to 600 points. The 63mts time frame is not bullish yet, but we are not bearish now. The best we can think of right now is to go neutral. If we fall back below 22295 tomorrow, we might even go short. 22519 would be an interim resistance on the upside above which we would like to go long. --- Algo trading - ended up losing 6003 on N50 algo trades today.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
Nifty intraday levels for 23/04/24.Nifty has been trading in the bearish zone and might be this is the retest as it has closed around 61.8% fib level. Market has taken support from the previous low of around 21800 and recovered closing around 22300 levels. There was a consolidation after a gap up opening and it closed around the opening price. If the market gives a gap down opening, there will be chance of bearish move as the market recovered quickly from the low. Major support levels :- 22160-230, 22000 (round number) The market on the hourly charts has closed above both the moving averages which shows some positiveness in the market. Resistance levels :- 22500, 22620 Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market. Gaps can alter the trading plan. Watch the price action around the levels and trade accordingly.
NSE:NIFTY
by TheMamboMomentum
Island Top - Reversal Pattern, Rsi DivergenceIsland Reversal,  A significant gap up, or sharply higher price at the open, follows an upward price trend, then reverses to a bearish price trend.  Rsi divergence implies a change in relative strength as compared to price movement.  The price has come out of the regression channel. Probably we are in the 4th wave, which means we have completed the top of the 3rd impulse wave. This would be confirmed if it closed below 21550 in the coming weeks. 
NSE:NIFTY1!
by OK_Rane
#Nifty Directions and levels of April 19th."Good morning, friends! Here are the directions for April 19th: The global market trend is bearish, supported by the Dow Jones, while our local market sentiment also indicates a bearish trend. It might open with a gap-down start, as suggested by GiftNifty, showing a -350 point decrease. GiftNifty indicates a long gap-down, so I don't know where it will be open. Structurally, the fall may continue Unless the market breaks the fib level of 38% we can expect a decline. My expectation is correction. The market may undergo some consolidation around any one of the support levels, but there's a possibility of further downside breaks. We can anticipate a minor trend reversal only if it breaks the Fibonacci level of 38%, using the Fibonacci swing from yesterday's high to the upcoming low. If it breaks, we can assume that the minor trend has reversed."
NSE:NIFTY
by Manickamtraders
#Nifty directions and levels for April 18th."Good morning, friends! Here are the directions for April 18th: Nifty and BankNifty both consolidated in the previous session, so structurally, if the gap-up doesn't sustain then we can expect further consolidation for correction. On the other hand, if the market initially takes a pullback, the 23% Fibonacci level will act as crucial resistance. This means that after the pullback, if it rejects around the Fibonacci level of 23%, it will continue the range between the previous bottom and the recent high, and it may undergo correction. On the other hand, if it breaks or sustains (around fib 23%), then we can expect further continuation, and we can fix our next target at 38%. If we want to simplify it, this is a range market, so we can try range breakout entries."
NSE:NIFTY
by Manickamtraders
Nifty weekly expiry analysis and levels for intraday 17/04/24.Nifty in the last 2-3 sessions has lost 400 points which shows some bearish basis market but it will retrace before another fall. In case of a gap up opening, there will be a sideways expiry for nifty. Otherwise, after a gap down, there will be a recovery or profit booking in positional/swing trades. It trading below the 20 ema (daily) and may come to retest the moving average or previous support levels. Major support levels :- 22095, 22000 Resistance levels :- 22210, 22270, 22430 Negative price action formation around the resistance/support level can be traded in intraday with strict SL. Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
NSE:NIFTY
by TheMamboMomentum
16 Apr 2024 -  Nifty Below 22295, Above 22051, Still BearishNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish⬇️ Recap from yesterday: "Ideally, we need one more red candle below 22295 for some bearish safety. 22051 is the next support level which could be taken out pretty easily if the shorts pick up momentum." Nifty hits an intraday low of 22079 today and a decent recovery to end the day at 22177 (22147 weighted average close). Honestly, the dip buyers were not that aggressive, but the bears were not really able to push down the prices.  If you look at the higher time frame i.e. 63mts, our closing today is almost midway between 22295 and 22051. Tomorrow 17th April is a holiday, so our markets will only resume trading on 18th. Thursday we have the Nifty50 expiry, so that makes things more exciting.  For bearish continuation, we need to take out the 22051, whereas for Neutral stance shift, we need to take out 22295. If we fall further below 21913 then that would also mean the negation of inverse H&S pattern of 20th March 2024. The Nifty50 algo trades ended with a profit of 9195, exited prematurely in the opening 30 minutes itself
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
15 Apr 2024–22295 support is taken out, I am short ⬇️ Nifty50Nifty Analysis - Stance Bearish⬇️ Recap from yesterday: "On the higher time frame, we have a double top formation (M pattern). To negate the pattern we would have to take out the ATH, otherwise, it looks like a nice setup to go bearish. 22519 is a good interim support level, the main support comes only at 22295." I personally did not punch any manual or non-directional Algo trades today. The only trades I took were the directional trend strategy. Since 22295 support is broken, my view has changed from neutral to bearish. If Nifty can give a close above 22295 then I might roll back my stance to neutral again. The reason I did not place orders today was due to the assumption that the markets may behave irrationally today. VIX was very low, so a surge could offset the premiums in such a way that it could create unwanted slippage. Well, after backtesting with today's data, I felt it was a stupid idea to have waited on the sidelines and not played. The M pattern assumes more meaning now on the 63mts TF. Ideally, we need one more red candle below 22295 for some bearish safety. 22051 is the next support level which could be taken out pretty easily if the shorts pick up momentum. I hope the BTFD takes some rest for few days so that the Bears can do their thing.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
NIFTY prediction for tomorrow 15 Apr 24As we discussed NIFTY yesterday, it opened a gap-down and then continued the momentum. If we look at the chart: The market has broken the pattern to the downside. There is 200-ema support at the downside. I am expecting to take a little bounce back (consolidation) and then continue the bearish momentum. 22385 is going to provide very nice PA support. All important levels are marked on the chart. If we look at the OI data: PCR = 0.71, which shows neutral market sentiments. However, in the past three days, OI activity PCR has been falling gradually from 1.34 -> 1.18 -> 0.7. which shows bears are increasing their position in the market very actively. There is not much of the support downside right now. The market may continue the momentum after a little bit of consolidation. The bulls are very weak at this point. I am expecting the market to open a gap-down near 200 EMA and then touch 13 EMA after that fall. Reasons: EMA(200) < Price < EMA(13), which indicates Weak bulls structure in the market. (Bearish) RSI < 40 shows strong bears' power. (Bearish) PCR = 0.71, which has been falling rapidly from 1.34. shows bears are actively increasing their position size. (Bearish) Price < VWAP shows a bearish market structure. (Bearish) Verdict : Bearish Plan of Action : Wait for 13 EMA to touch, then sell 22500 PE (Hedge it with 15/- Premium)
NSE:NIFTYShort
by finnova_
7
2 Apr– Nifty50 - 4 RED Candles, first real sign of reversal?Nifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️️ Recap from yesterday: "As I write this article, SPX, NDQ, and DJI are down over 1.1%. A spillover effect is definite but because we have a holiday tomorrow, we might have another day of US stock market action left to react." The first real sign of a breakdown. US CPI came in hot due to which the markets reacted pretty badly on Wednesday. Thursday the markets gained back some points, but I strongly think the fall in our markets had more to do with the "Iran - Israel" tensions than inflation. The reason I am saying that is because after the gap-down open, we made a swing low but then recovered nicely from 09.43 to 12.07. From 12.07 to close we lost 192 points ~ 0.85%. We changed the stance from Bullish to Neutral as soon as 22689 levels were breached. Ideally, we should have changed the status to bearish as the afternoon momentum was quite good. The only reason we did not do that was to check if the reaction was a little too much, if we continue to maintain the same momentum on Monday - we will look out for bearish opportunities. On the higher time frame, we have a double top formation (M pattern). To negate the pattern we would have to take out the ATH, otherwise, it looks like a nice setup to go bearish. 22519 is a good interim support level, the main support comes only at 22295. I started Algo trading on Nifty50 today and ended the day with a gain of Rs9465. Exited prematurely at 09.44 as soon as the markets started to crack.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
10 Apr - Falling VIX, Rising Markets and Lower UncertaintyNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: "For tomorrow also we are continuing our bullish view and would like to go neutral if we get a close below 22615" Nifty had a gap up opening and was stuck in a narrow range till 13.11 after which it picked up decent momentum. Nifty almost gained 101 points from the intraday low to take out the previous highs. The new ATH is now 22775. In the final 30 minutes, we gave away some gains but Nifty50 closed the day with a total gain of 111pts ~ 0.49% Just when we thought the momentum was fading, N50 managed to climb 100+ points and hit new highs. What is more interesting is that the US CPI (Inflation) data came hotter than expected. As I write this article, SPX, NDQ, and DJI are down over 1.1%. A spillover effect is definite but because we have a holiday tomorrow, we might have another day of US stock market action left to react. We wish to maintain our bullish stance and go neutral if we get a close below the 22689 levels.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram