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Niftyoutlook

Nifty weekly expiry analysis and levels for intraday 17/04/24.Nifty in the last 2-3 sessions has lost 400 points which shows some bearish basis market but it will retrace before another fall. In case of a gap up opening, there will be a sideways expiry for nifty. Otherwise, after a gap down, there will be a recovery or profit booking in positional/swing trades. It trading below the 20 ema (daily) and may come to retest the moving average or previous support levels. Major support levels :- 22095, 22000 Resistance levels :- 22210, 22270, 22430 Negative price action formation around the resistance/support level can be traded in intraday with strict SL. Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
NSE:NIFTY
by TheMamboMomentum
16 Apr 2024 -  Nifty Below 22295, Above 22051, Still BearishNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish⬇️ Recap from yesterday: "Ideally, we need one more red candle below 22295 for some bearish safety. 22051 is the next support level which could be taken out pretty easily if the shorts pick up momentum." Nifty hits an intraday low of 22079 today and a decent recovery to end the day at 22177 (22147 weighted average close). Honestly, the dip buyers were not that aggressive, but the bears were not really able to push down the prices.  If you look at the higher time frame i.e. 63mts, our closing today is almost midway between 22295 and 22051. Tomorrow 17th April is a holiday, so our markets will only resume trading on 18th. Thursday we have the Nifty50 expiry, so that makes things more exciting.  For bearish continuation, we need to take out the 22051, whereas for Neutral stance shift, we need to take out 22295. If we fall further below 21913 then that would also mean the negation of inverse H&S pattern of 20th March 2024. The Nifty50 algo trades ended with a profit of 9195, exited prematurely in the opening 30 minutes itself
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
15 Apr 2024–22295 support is taken out, I am short ⬇️ Nifty50Nifty Analysis - Stance Bearish⬇️ Recap from yesterday: "On the higher time frame, we have a double top formation (M pattern). To negate the pattern we would have to take out the ATH, otherwise, it looks like a nice setup to go bearish. 22519 is a good interim support level, the main support comes only at 22295." I personally did not punch any manual or non-directional Algo trades today. The only trades I took were the directional trend strategy. Since 22295 support is broken, my view has changed from neutral to bearish. If Nifty can give a close above 22295 then I might roll back my stance to neutral again. The reason I did not place orders today was due to the assumption that the markets may behave irrationally today. VIX was very low, so a surge could offset the premiums in such a way that it could create unwanted slippage. Well, after backtesting with today's data, I felt it was a stupid idea to have waited on the sidelines and not played. The M pattern assumes more meaning now on the 63mts TF. Ideally, we need one more red candle below 22295 for some bearish safety. 22051 is the next support level which could be taken out pretty easily if the shorts pick up momentum. I hope the BTFD takes some rest for few days so that the Bears can do their thing.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
NIFTY prediction for tomorrow 15 Apr 24As we discussed NIFTY yesterday, it opened a gap-down and then continued the momentum. If we look at the chart: The market has broken the pattern to the downside. There is 200-ema support at the downside. I am expecting to take a little bounce back (consolidation) and then continue the bearish momentum. 22385 is going to provide very nice PA support. All important levels are marked on the chart. If we look at the OI data: PCR = 0.71, which shows neutral market sentiments. However, in the past three days, OI activity PCR has been falling gradually from 1.34 -> 1.18 -> 0.7. which shows bears are increasing their position in the market very actively. There is not much of the support downside right now. The market may continue the momentum after a little bit of consolidation. The bulls are very weak at this point. I am expecting the market to open a gap-down near 200 EMA and then touch 13 EMA after that fall. Reasons: EMA(200) < Price < EMA(13), which indicates Weak bulls structure in the market. (Bearish) RSI < 40 shows strong bears' power. (Bearish) PCR = 0.71, which has been falling rapidly from 1.34. shows bears are actively increasing their position size. (Bearish) Price < VWAP shows a bearish market structure. (Bearish) Verdict : Bearish Plan of Action : Wait for 13 EMA to touch, then sell 22500 PE (Hedge it with 15/- Premium)
NSE:NIFTYShort
by finnova_
7
2 Apr– Nifty50 - 4 RED Candles, first real sign of reversal?Nifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️️ Recap from yesterday: "As I write this article, SPX, NDQ, and DJI are down over 1.1%. A spillover effect is definite but because we have a holiday tomorrow, we might have another day of US stock market action left to react." The first real sign of a breakdown. US CPI came in hot due to which the markets reacted pretty badly on Wednesday. Thursday the markets gained back some points, but I strongly think the fall in our markets had more to do with the "Iran - Israel" tensions than inflation. The reason I am saying that is because after the gap-down open, we made a swing low but then recovered nicely from 09.43 to 12.07. From 12.07 to close we lost 192 points ~ 0.85%. We changed the stance from Bullish to Neutral as soon as 22689 levels were breached. Ideally, we should have changed the status to bearish as the afternoon momentum was quite good. The only reason we did not do that was to check if the reaction was a little too much, if we continue to maintain the same momentum on Monday - we will look out for bearish opportunities. On the higher time frame, we have a double top formation (M pattern). To negate the pattern we would have to take out the ATH, otherwise, it looks like a nice setup to go bearish. 22519 is a good interim support level, the main support comes only at 22295. I started Algo trading on Nifty50 today and ended the day with a gain of Rs9465. Exited prematurely at 09.44 as soon as the markets started to crack.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
10 Apr - Falling VIX, Rising Markets and Lower UncertaintyNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: "For tomorrow also we are continuing our bullish view and would like to go neutral if we get a close below 22615" Nifty had a gap up opening and was stuck in a narrow range till 13.11 after which it picked up decent momentum. Nifty almost gained 101 points from the intraday low to take out the previous highs. The new ATH is now 22775. In the final 30 minutes, we gave away some gains but Nifty50 closed the day with a total gain of 111pts ~ 0.49% Just when we thought the momentum was fading, N50 managed to climb 100+ points and hit new highs. What is more interesting is that the US CPI (Inflation) data came hotter than expected. As I write this article, SPX, NDQ, and DJI are down over 1.1%. A spillover effect is definite but because we have a holiday tomorrow, we might have another day of US stock market action left to react. We wish to maintain our bullish stance and go neutral if we get a close below the 22689 levels.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
FASP levels for Nifty 10/04/2024The FASP for Nifty is listed for 10-04-2024. You can add this levels to your trade setup for better results. This should not be the only indicator but an additional tool to increase your winning possibilities. What is Fibolysis Anchor SupRes Points(FASP)? It is a unique level arrived by using Fibonacci Retracement , Fibonacci Extension , Standard Pivot levels under various Timeframes. It is an extensively analyzed level to draw the support and resistance levels for the next day. You can use these levels along with your trade setup to increase your winning odds. Validity of the levels: 1 Day How to use these levels? The three levels on both sides are usually easily achievable. The Targets above are bit difficult to achieve in a single trading session. I use this fact to write intraday positions and to buy options. Color Coding: Green is regular support and buying area, Red is strong exit area Disclaimer: This is shared in the interest of educational purpose and for knowledge enhancement. Kindly refer it in the same light. I am not responsible for any profits or loss incurred based on this information.
NSE:NIFTY
by SathishChandrasekaran
08 Apr 2024 - Nifty get a new ATH, NiftyIT in REDNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: "Today was an inside day with no real momentum and that does not mean that we are not bullish." Nifty does a gap up and then continues the climb to hit a new ATH of 22697 by 13.19. You would be surprised that the majority of those gains did not come from NiftyBank or NiftyIT, it came from Reliance, LT, M&M, and Maruti. I initially thought the momentum was fading as the other 7 top players had no steam. Only Reliance was jumping. One striking observation was the sharp fall between 13.23 & 13.27, we almost gave away 65 points in 8 minutes. Looked like a warning shot to me, but the market participants ensured stability quickly thereafter. On the 63mts TF, there is nothing for the Bears. I can quickly relate to how bad they are feeling. It has been a tough 12 to 15 months for them, every time there is a dip, the buyers jump in and push up the prices further. Short covering ensures further upmoves and an SL hit for the short-sellers ensuring the Bears are running out of funds.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
04 Apr - Nifty - The first candle today came as a shocker!Nifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: “This is because if Nifty50 reverses, there is no way BankNifty can maintain the positive momentum. For tomorrow we wish to start with the bullish stance itself and go neutral if the 22295 levels are not holding.” Absolutely crazy price action today, we fell a whopping 315 points ~ 1.4% after hitting new all-time highs of 22619. The fall was too furious that it would have taken out all the stop losses of Nifty expiry traders. If that did not, then I am very sure the price action from 10.55 to 13.31 would have. That is because we retraced 276 points ~ 1.24% to go above the swing highs of yesterday. A classic V-shaped pattern, something that is rare on an index like Nifty. If you trade BankNifty, you might have gotten used to it already. Now take a look at the 63mts chart, and see where the reversal came from ~ 22295 levels. That is the main reason why we said a stance change is required only if 22295 is broken and since we did not do that, we continue to remain bullish. But deep down it got me thinking, what is the reason we had a BIG RED candle in the opening 1 hour? No way it was related to technical analysis. It should be a news or macro economic event-related, maybe we will get to know in the RBI Governor MPC address tomorrow.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
03 Apr N50 -The Bulls have not given up yet, there is still hopeNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: “We wish to maintain the bullish stance for tomorrow as well, but we will be a bit cautious if Nifty falls below 22393 levels. A stance revision may not be even required till 22295 is broken” As we feared yesterday, we got the drop below 22393 levels but it did not even test the 22295 to mandate a stance change. The intraday low was 22346 from which we recovered 174 points ~ 0.78% to 22520 levels. From there we had a sharp correction of about 96 points ~ 0.43%. This correction would be the excess or the profit booking from those “longs” entered near the swing lows. The final closing was perfectly flat at 22434 levels. This can be considered a big achievement for the Bulls as the opening was pretty bad. I hope we are not making a double top (M pattern) on the 63mts time frame. If the pattern holds then all the efforts taken by the BankNifty index will go down the drain. This is because if Nifty50 reverses, there is no way BankNifty can maintain the positive momentum. For tomorrow we wish to start with the bullish stance itself and go neutral if the 22295 levels are not holding.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
1
Nifty 02 Apr- Flat day, consolidating or deciding to reverse?Nifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: “But before we go long, let us give it a day or two because the reaction today may be the after-effect of the adjustments and rebalancing that was done over the last 2 to 3 days due to year-end.” Nifty was falling gradually, almost maintaining the same slope as yesterday. The final 90 minutes saw some activity against that slope, which ensured that we were closing flat for the day. If you consider the 0.71% fall in NiftyIT, it is quite commendable that Nifty and BankNifty held their ground. Honestly, NiftyIT falling was not a good sign - we should be seriously watching that sector to see if there are any weaknesses in the pipeline. NiftyIT is the first sector to react based on global macros (anything except Crude Oil). We wish to maintain the bullish stance for tomorrow as well, but we will be a bit cautious if Nifty falls below 22393 levels. A stance revision may not be even required till 22295 is broken. In fact, Nifty might react more to domestic cues than international macros as elections are getting kicked off. We are going into the campaigns with a historically low VIX of 11.6525, I am quite sure this should start rising pretty soon.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
01 Apr 2024 - Both indices are aligned in the same direction -UPNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: “In the end, made peace with whatever happened during the day. When we start trading on 1st April, we will start with a bullish stance.” Nifty surprises everybody and recovers the loss of the final 45mts of trade on 28th March. What a good start to the new weekly, monthly, and yearly series. Unlike the previous quarters, I may not compile the daily posts into an ebook to post on Kindle, instead, it will be available on tradingview and my blog for reference & study. Nifty hit a new ATH today - 22529 and after that, the momentum faded slightly, but the downside was protected pretty well. 22443 acted as a good interim support. For all the non-directional option sellers, the first day of the new FY would have given a good green start to their PnL. On the higher timeframe, Nifty looks solidly poised for more bullish momentum. BankNifty went above its resistance today and for the first time in many sessions, we have both the indices facing the same direction i.e. UP. Ideally, we should see some followthrough buying and the index should continue to hit new highs. But before we go long, let us give it a day or two because the reaction today may be the after-effect of the adjustments and rebalancing that was done over the last 2 to 3 days due to year-end.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
27 Mar ’24 — Nifty takes out 22051 resistance, 22295 next?Nifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: “We drew an inverse Head & Shoulders pattern on the 22nd. If that holds true, we should be getting some assistance tomorrow or the 28th” 4mts chart Nifty did more than okay today, we opened above the resistance level of 22051 and then steadily climbed to 22181 before cooling off. We then had another attempt from 13.11 to 14.15 where we went till 22193 before falling off the cliff. We fell exactly 100 points to 22100 levels and then managed to recover a bit to close at 22147. Ideally, we cannot make out anything significant today as most of the trades would have been year-end rebalancing - both by the DIIs as well as the FIIs. The inflow & outflow and weight adjustments will be there tomorrow as well as it is the last working day of this financial year. We are still hanging on to the inverse head and shoulders pattern and strongly hope we should have some movement to the 22295 levels by tomorrow. NiftyIT is showing too much weakness and if BankNifty also sides to the downside then there is a high possibility that we may not break out. How long can RELIANCE keep supporting this market? We wish to maintain our neutral stance for tomorrow and go long if we are nearing 22295 in the morning session itself. 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
26 Mar ’24 — Scary opening minutes and broken support at closeNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: “The support of 22051 will be crucial and N50 has to defend it if we wish to go bullish.” 4mts chart No one would really believe it if we said Nifty50 had an opening low of 21947 i.e. 133 points below the last session close. Well, it was just a blip and we quickly regained the 222051 support/resistance level. From 09.19 to 14.31 Nifty was hovering around this zone with no particular intent to go up or down. In the last hour, Nifty made a quick fall of 50+ points went to 22000, and then closed there. The good thing is that we did not retest the opening lows again and the bad thing is that the momentum we had on the last working day is almost gone. We drew an inverse Head & Shoulders pattern on the 22nd. If that holds true, we should be getting some assistance tomorrow or the 28th If N50 is unable to rally despite the IH&S pattern we will quickly change our priority to a small triple top that is forming and go bearish if 21913 support also fails. Tomorrow we wish to maintain our neutral stance. 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
22 Mar ’24 — Nifty makes a Run, but crucial profit booking @ endNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: “Momentum is still something Nifty50 was not able to find so far, mainly because follow-up buying or selling was just not there.” 4mts chart Nifty has become really unpredictable and is taking all the professional traders on a wild ride. We opened Gap-down, and the 3rd candle went through the support of 21913. Just when we thought we might have a down day, Nifty makes a reversal. Magically the support of 21913 is held and Nifty moves up an impressive 297 points ~ 1.36%. On its way, it spent some time @ 22051 resistance too, but the breakthrough was proof that the animal was a Bull and not a Bear. In the closing 40 minutes, we had a round of profit booking that ensured we fell around 117 points. Nifty creates an inverse head and shoulders on the 63mts chart. IH&S is a bullish pattern. But we are not changing our stance that fast. We will wait for follow-through buying on Tuesday and then go long. The support of 22051 will be crucial and N50 has to defend it if we wish to go bullish. Meanwhile, it is a long weekend for us and that could also mean that global macros could change in between as well. 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
21 Mar ’24 — Nifty goes from bearish to neutral, thanks to SPX Nifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: “Momentum is a great thing in technical analysis, the trend starts only when the momentum is in favor because if things stay as it is — markets will recover.” 4mts chart Whatever trap was set up by the Bears, it was busted open today with the gap-up. We opened 167 points ~ 0.76% ensuring we are opening right above the resistance 21913. And that also meant we had to change the stance from bearish to neutral. We discussed how the weak hands and the short covering they create spoil the entire trap. See what happened with the 22051 resistance too, there were 2 strong green candles - 10.03 and 10.07 that would have given the feeling that we are breaking this zone also. If the bear market is still in play, we will reverse sharply tomorrow. On the higher time frame, we created an island day, thanks to the gap-up. Momentum is still something Nifty50 was not able to find so far, mainly because follow-up buying or selling was just not there. Even in the small bearish phase we had, BankNifty’s lack of participation meant our run would be cut short. To resume the downtrend we have to break the swing low i.e. fall below 21690 and we hope if that happens the momentum will kick start. To go long we need to go above 22295 as soon as possible. 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
Nifty weekly analysis for 18/03/24. Nifty has given a 2% fall in a week and closed above 22k levels after testing 21900 levels. It consolidated around the higher level and gave a fall, there is a probability of it continuing the fall. If there is a gap down opening and a retest of the current support level of 21900, a bearish trade can be initiated after a negative price action around it. In case of a gap up, wait for a W pattern formation and enter only when the neck line is crossed and sustained. For last 2 trading session, nifty is forming an inside candle and is consolidating. The break out/down can give good movement. Major support levels :- 21900, 21780, 21580 Nifty is trading below the 20 ema (daily) and is sustaing below it. The consolidation range is between the horizontal support and 20 ema as a resistance. There is a break down of a trendline and the retest is also done in nifty which adds on for a confirmation on the bearish side. Resistance levels :- 22100, 22190 Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
NSE:NIFTY
by TheMamboMomentum
2