Nifty swing trade set up with 1:10 RR1. Trend Bullish
2. RR lucrative with 1:10
3. Set up: a bounce from Support with morning star can appear
4. For early entry risk is less and reward can be handsome
Niftyoutlook
FASP levels for Nifty 06/03/2024The FASP for Nifty is listed for 06-03-2024. You can add this levels to your trade setup for better results. This should not be the only indicator but an additional tool to increase your winning possibilities.
What is Fibolysis Anchor SupRes Points(FASP)?
It is a unique level arrived by using Fibonacci Retracement , Fibonacci Extension , Standard Pivot levels under various Timeframes. It is an extensively analyzed level to draw the support and resistance levels for the next day. You can use these levels along with your trade setup to increase your winning odds.
Validity of the levels: 1 Day
How to use these levels?
The three levels on both sides are usually easily achievable. The Targets above are bit difficult to achieve in a single trading session. I use this fact to write intraday positions and to buy options.
Color Coding: Green is regular support and buying area, Red is strong exit area
Disclaimer: This is shared in the interest of educational purpose and for knowledge enhancement. Kindly refer it in the same light. I am not responsible for any profits or loss incurred based on this information.
04 Mar ’24 N50, Perfect Flat day, straddlers fallen asleep todayNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️
Recap from yesterday: “The odd man out today was NiftyIT, which did not want to participate in the rally and instead went the other way. It ended the day with a loss of 204 points.”
4mts chart
NiftyIT again shows its rebel attitude today, on a flattish day - NiftyIT losses 291 points ~ 0.77%. I am not suggesting that a stronger IT would have helped Nifty50 scale new heights today, just that the negative bias did not fit well with the other counters. Nifty and BankNifty had a perfectly flattish day today - a dream come true for the straddlers. Not conceding ground is still Bullish as the Bears are running out of fuel. Despite FIIs selling today - it really did not make a difference on the main indices.
On the higher timeframe, we have formed an island (Mar 2nd + today’s price action). On 2nd March we had the special session on which Nifty hit a new ATH of 22463. We did not take that out today, but the flattish stance bodes well with the Bullish narrative. Our stance continues to be bullish and the first support level would be 22295. It is a shallow support and not quite relevant for a stance change, but the momentum is what really matters. Since we do not have a resistance, the markets could go up to any extent and personally, I am not in favor of shorting even 22700 or 22800 as a single stride could wipe us out.
63mts chart
NIFTY Prediction for tomorrow 5th MarAs we discussed yesterday, NIFTY has been taking resistance at the resistance trendline and resulted sideways.
If we look at the chart now:
The market is trading at the Resistance trendline. The market has been in a range bound in (22350-22470). Also price >> EMA(200) (TF = 30 min) and EMA(13) >> EMA(200). This indicates that the market needs some correction or consolidation at this point.
If we look at the OI data:
PCR = 1.26 indicates the bullish nature of the market. There has been huge activity at 22400. NIFTY has equally distributed PE and CE writing on both sides. But at lower levels, the market has huge support at 22200 and 22000.
I am expecting 2 cases in the market, which have been marked in the chart.
Case 1: Support is at 22370, and resistance is at trendline.
Case 2: retracement till fib 0.38 level. (22220)
Reasons:
Price > EMAs show bullish sentiments. (Bullish)
Price >> EMA(200) and EMA(13) >> EMA(200) market might get some correction till 22200.
RSI ~ 63 (falling) shows weakness in bulls.
PCR = 1.25 shows bullish signal whereas combined week expiry shows PCR = 0.90 weekness in bulls for upcoming week. (sideways)
Price <= VWAP shows that the market price is balanced and can go either side. (Indecisive)
Verdict:
Sideways or Bullish
Plan of action:
Case 1: Iron condor in range 22300-22450.
Case 2 : Sell 22450 CE (Hedge is with 20 rs CE)
NIFTY prediction for tomorrow 4th MARAs we discussed NIFTY's bullish behavior in our last analysis, the Market (NIFTY) moved up 280 points.
If we look at the chart data:
The Market is trading at the resistance trendline zone. Also price >> EMA(200) (TF = 30 min) and EMA(13) >> EMA(200). This indicates that the Market needs some correction or consolidation at this point. Also, the Market is in an uptrend channel, which has formed a Higher High(HH). There is a possibility to form a higher low now.
If we look at OI Data:
PCR = 1.28, which shows the Market has bullish sentiments. There has been a huge PE writing at 22400. But if we look at the combined PCR = 0.99, it shows that the Market is likely to come down for some correction to form a Higher Low.
FII & DII data: FII is medium bearish because the Market is trading at the resistance trendline. Clients are bullish because the Market is trading at ATH.
I am expecting the Market to get some correction, at least till the level of 22200 (Fib 0.38 levels).
Reasons:
Price > EMAs show bullish sentiments. (Bullish)
Price >> EMA(200) and EMA(13) >> EMA(200) market might get some correction till 22200.
RSI ~ 75 needs some consolidation at this level. (sideways)
PCR = 1.28 shows bullish signal whereas combined week expiry shows PCR = 0.99 weekness in bulls for upcoming week. (sideways)
Price <= VWAP shows that the market price is balanced and can go either side. (Indecisive)
Verdict:
Sideways or Bullish
Plan of Action:
Case 1 : Iron condor in range 22300-22450.
Case 2 : Sell 22450 CE (Hedge is with 20 rs CE)
NIFTY : The tentative stage of a market melt-up stage in PROB#2NIFTY Projection Case Study:
Probability #2
Target Levels & Tentative Timings are marked in chart
In order to navigate the current market uncertainties effectively, it is crucial to grasp the specific stage of the market melt-up. Recognizing whether the market is in the early uptrend, an acceleration phase, or exhibiting signs of overbought conditions provides valuable insights for strategic decision-making. Acknowledging the risks associated with melt-ups, such as overvaluation and herding behavior, enables us to implement sound risk management practices. Similarly, being attuned to the potential dangers of a market melt-down, including fast declines and panic selling, empowers us to make informed decisions in this dynamic and ever-changing market environment.
A market melt-up typically occurs during the late stages of a bull market when investors rush to buy stocks, driving prices sharply higher. It is characterized by a sudden and intense upward momentum fueled by FOMO (fear of missing out). Melt-ups often precede market corrections or downturns, so caution is advised when witnessing extreme bullish behavior.
The exact timing of a market melt-up in NIFTY happened between 2003 to 2008. The rapid and excessive increase in asset prices driven by speculative buying and fear of missing out resulted in the 2008 financial crisis was marked by a severe downturn, triggered primarily by the collapse of the subprime mortgage market in the United States.
The duration of a melt-up can vary, and there is no fixed timeline for how long it lasts. Melt-ups are characterized by a rapid and intense upward movement in prices, often driven by speculative and fear-of-missing-out (FOMO) behavior among investors. The duration can be influenced by various technical factors, including market conditions, economic indicators, and global events.
In some cases, a melt-up can be relatively short-lived, with prices soaring over a few weeks or months before experiencing a correction. However, in other instances, a melt-up might extend for a more prolonged period if the speculative frenzy and optimistic sentiment persist even for several months or even years.
It's important to note that while melt-ups can result in significant gains, they often precede market corrections or downturns. Investors & traders should exercise caution and be aware of the potential risks associated with the unsustainable nature of extreme upward movements in asset prices. Monitoring market conditions using potential technical indicators and navigating using geometric analysis can help traders & investors make well-informed decisions during such periods.
In technical analysis, a melt-up is often characterized by rapid and aggressive upward price movements. Here are some technical indicators and patterns that might be associated with a typical melt-up:
Sharp Price Spikes: Look for sudden and substantial increases in the price of the asset, often accompanied by high trading volumes. This indicates strong buying interest.
Breakouts and Gaps: Melt-ups may involve breakouts above key resistance levels and price gaps as buyers enthusiastically enter the market, pushing prices higher without waiting for traditional technical levels.
Overbought Conditions: Indicators and oscillators to identify overbought conditions. Extremely high values can indicate that the market is overextended and vice versa.
Parabolic Moves: A parabolic price pattern, where the price accelerates upward in a steep curve, is often associated with a melt-up. This can be identified on a price chart.
FOMO Behavior: Market sentiment plays a crucial role in a melt-up. Watch for signs of Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) behavior among investors, which can contribute to an unsustainable rally.
Low Volatility Pullbacks: During a melt-up, pullbacks might be short-lived and characterized by low volatility. Buyers may quickly step in to take advantage of any dips.
It's important to note that while these indicators may suggest a melt-up, market dynamics can change, and there's always a level of unpredictability.
Risk management and staying informed about broader market conditions are crucial when navigating such extreme scenarios.
Melt-Up Factors observed in Technical Analysis:
Strong Momentum Indicators:
Bullish momentum, as indicated by rising indicators & oscillators having positive readings, can attract more buyers, fueling a melt-up.
Breakout Patterns:
Identification of bullish chart patterns like breakouts or continuation patterns may signal a strong upward move and contribute to a melt-up scenario.
Volume Surge:
High trading volumes accompanying the uptrend suggest increased participation and confidence among investors, reinforcing the melt-up trend.
Supportive Trendlines:
Upward-sloping trendlines provide a visual representation of the bullish trend, and their support can encourage further buying interest.
Liquidity Influx:
Positive market sentiment and an influx of liquidity, possibly driven by accommodative monetary policies, can contribute to a melt-up by facilitating higher valuations. Optimistic Market Psychology:
Positive news, economic indicators, or corporate earnings can create a bullish psychological environment, encouraging traders to adopt a buy-and-hold mentality.
Melt-Down Factors observed in Technical Analysis:
Divergence in Momentum Indicators:
Negative divergences in momentum indicators & oscillators can signal weakening upward momentum, potentially indicating an impending melt-down.
Bearish Reversal Patterns:
Recognition of bearish chart patterns, such as head and shoulders or double tops, can suggest a potential reversal in the trend, leading to a melt-down.
Increasing Selling Volumes:
A surge in selling volumes during a downtrend reflects strong selling pressure, exacerbating the downward movement and contributing to a melt-down.
Violation of Support Levels:
Breaking below key support levels or trendlines may trigger stop-loss orders and further selling, accelerating the melt-down process.
Market Sentiment Shifts:
Negative news, economic downturns, or geopolitical uncertainties can shift market sentiment, prompting investors to exit positions and contribute to a melt-down.
Liquidity Drying Up:
Reduced liquidity in the market, possibly due to risk aversion or tightening monetary policies, can exacerbate price declines during a melt-down.
Analyzing these technical factors provides insights into the dynamics of market movements, helping traders and investors navigate both bullish and bearish scenarios.
Stages of Melt-Up Using Technical Analysis:
Early Uptrend Recognition:
Identification of the initial signs of a bullish trend through technical indicators like moving averages, positive momentum, and breakout patterns.
Acceleration Phase:
Confirmation of the uptrend with strong momentum indicators, increasing trading volumes, and the development of bullish chart patterns, leading to an acceleration of price gains.
Overbought Conditions:
Recognition of overbought conditions using indicators, suggesting that the market may be reaching an unsustainable level of buying activity.
FOMO and Speculative Buying:
Increased speculation and FOMO behavior among investors, as indicated by rapid price increases, a surge in retail trading activity, and a shift towards riskier assets.
Parabolic Price Movement:
Observation of parabolic price movement, characterized by steep and unsustainable upward curves on charts, signaling an intensified phase of the melt-up.
Market Exuberance:
High levels of market exuberance and positive sentiment, possibly fueled by media coverage and optimistic economic outlooks, contributing to a euphoric atmosphere.
Stages of Melt-Down Using Technical Analysis:
Early Signs of Weakness:
Identification of initial signs of weakness in the uptrend, including negative divergences in momentum indicators, bearish reversal patterns, or a failure to sustain higher highs.
Loss of Key Support:
Breaking below key support levels or trendlines, triggering concerns among technical analysts about a potential shift in the trend.
Increased Selling Pressure:
Surge in selling volumes accompanied by downward price movements, signaling increased selling pressure and a potential acceleration of the melt-down.
Bearish Chart Patterns Confirmation:
Confirmation of bearish chart patterns, such as head and shoulders or double tops, supporting the case for a sustained downtrend.
Fear and Panic Selling:
Elevated fear and panic selling as investors rush to exit positions, exacerbating the downward pressure on prices.
Breakdown of Critical Levels:
Breaking through critical support levels, possibly triggering algorithmic trading strategies and stop-loss orders, intensifying the melt-down.
Understanding these stages using technical analysis can help traders and investors make informed decisions and implement risk management strategies during both melt-up and melt-down scenarios.
Risk and Dangers of a Market Melt-Up:
Overvaluation:
Melt-ups can lead to overvaluation, where asset prices detach from underlying fundamentals. This poses a risk of substantial losses when the market corrects.
Herding Behavior:
Investors may engage in herding behavior during a melt-up, following the crowd without considering fundamentals, increasing the risk of a sharp reversal.
Sudden Corrections:
Melt-ups are often followed by sudden corrections or market downturns. Investors entering late in the rally may face significant losses if they don't exit positions in time.
Excessive Risk-Taking:
The euphoria of a melt-up can lead to excessive risk-taking and leveraged positions, increasing vulnerability to market volatility.
Risk and Dangers of a Market Melt-Down:
Fast and Sharp Declines:
Melt-downs are characterized by fast and sharp declines in prices, catching investors off guard and resulting in substantial portfolio losses.
Panic Selling:
Fear and panic selling during a melt-down can exacerbate the decline, causing a cascading effect as more investors rush to liquidate positions.
Liquidity Issues:
Melt-downs may lead to liquidity issues, making it challenging for investors to exit positions at desired prices, amplifying losses.
Financial System Stress:
Severe market downturns can stress the financial system, potentially leading to disruptions in banking and other financial institutions.
Economic Impact:
Market melt-downs can have broader economic consequences, affecting consumer confidence, business investments, and overall economic stability.
A market melt-up poses risks as it can lead to overvaluation, herding behavior, and sudden corrections. Investors might be drawn into a euphoric buying frenzy, neglecting underlying fundamentals and taking excessive risks.
The danger lies in the potential for significant losses when the market corrects, catching latecomers off guard. Conversely, a market melt-down carries the risk of fast and sharp declines, triggering panic selling and liquidity issues. The rapid deterioration can stress the financial system, impacting not just investors but also having broader economic consequences. Both scenarios require vigilant risk management, strategic decision-making, and adaptability to navigate the inherent dangers associated with extreme market movements.
Using Technical Analysis to Mitigate Risks:
Risk Management:
Set clear risk management strategies, including stop-loss orders and position sizing, to protect against significant losses.
Diversification:
Diversify your portfolio across different asset classes to spread risk and reduce the impact of a severe market event.
Stay Informed:
Regularly monitor technical indicators, trend reversals, and market sentiment to stay informed about potential shifts in market conditions.
Avoid Chasing Trends:
Avoid chasing trends during melt-ups and practice disciplined investing to mitigate the risk of entering the market at unsustainable levels.
Adaptability:
Be adaptable and ready to adjust your investment strategy based on changing technical signals and market dynamics.
While technical analysis can provide valuable insights, it's essential to combine it with a holistic approach to risk management and a thorough understanding of market dynamics to navigate the challenges associated with both melt-ups and melt-downs.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in the technical analysis charts published on this TradingView account is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or trading strategies.
Trading and investing in financial markets involve risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. The charts and analysis presented here may not guarantee accuracy or completeness, and users are encouraged to conduct their own research and seek professional advice before making any investment decisions.
The author of these charts is not responsible for any losses, damages, or other liabilities arising from the use of the information presented. Users should be aware of the inherent risks associated with trading and carefully consider their financial situation and risk tolerance before engaging in any trading activities.
By accessing and using the information provided in these charts, users acknowledge and agree to the terms of this disclaimer.
NIFTY : The tentative stage of a market melt-up stage in PROB#1NIFTY Projection Case Study:
Probability #1
Target Levels & Tentative Timings are marked in chart
In order to navigate the current market uncertainties effectively, it is crucial to grasp the specific stage of the market melt-up. Recognizing whether the market is in the early uptrend, an acceleration phase, or exhibiting signs of overbought conditions provides valuable insights for strategic decision-making. Acknowledging the risks associated with melt-ups, such as overvaluation and herding behavior, enables us to implement sound risk management practices. Similarly, being attuned to the potential dangers of a market melt-down, including fast declines and panic selling, empowers us to make informed decisions in this dynamic and ever-changing market environment.
A market melt-up typically occurs during the late stages of a bull market when investors rush to buy stocks, driving prices sharply higher. It is characterized by a sudden and intense upward momentum fueled by FOMO (fear of missing out). Melt-ups often precede market corrections or downturns, so caution is advised when witnessing extreme bullish behavior.
The exact timing of a market melt-up in NIFTY happened between 2003 to 2008. The rapid and excessive increase in asset prices driven by speculative buying and fear of missing out resulted in the 2008 financial crisis was marked by a severe downturn, triggered primarily by the collapse of the subprime mortgage market in the United States.
The duration of a melt-up can vary, and there is no fixed timeline for how long it lasts. Melt-ups are characterized by a rapid and intense upward movement in prices, often driven by speculative and fear-of-missing-out (FOMO) behavior among investors. The duration can be influenced by various technical factors, including market conditions, economic indicators, and global events.
In some cases, a melt-up can be relatively short-lived, with prices soaring over a few weeks or months before experiencing a correction. However, in other instances, a melt-up might extend for a more prolonged period if the speculative frenzy and optimistic sentiment persist even for several months or even years.
It's important to note that while melt-ups can result in significant gains, they often precede market corrections or downturns. Investors & traders should exercise caution and be aware of the potential risks associated with the unsustainable nature of extreme upward movements in asset prices. Monitoring market conditions using potential technical indicators and navigating using geometric analysis can help traders & investors make well-informed decisions during such periods.
In technical analysis, a melt-up is often characterized by rapid and aggressive upward price movements. Here are some technical indicators and patterns that might be associated with a typical melt-up:
Sharp Price Spikes: Look for sudden and substantial increases in the price of the asset, often accompanied by high trading volumes. This indicates strong buying interest.
Breakouts and Gaps: Melt-ups may involve breakouts above key resistance levels and price gaps as buyers enthusiastically enter the market, pushing prices higher without waiting for traditional technical levels.
Overbought Conditions: Indicators and oscillators to identify overbought conditions. Extremely high values can indicate that the market is overextended and vice versa.
Parabolic Moves: A parabolic price pattern, where the price accelerates upward in a steep curve, is often associated with a melt-up. This can be identified on a price chart.
FOMO Behavior: Market sentiment plays a crucial role in a melt-up. Watch for signs of Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) behavior among investors, which can contribute to an unsustainable rally.
Low Volatility Pullbacks: During a melt-up, pullbacks might be short-lived and characterized by low volatility. Buyers may quickly step in to take advantage of any dips.
It's important to note that while these indicators may suggest a melt-up, market dynamics can change, and there's always a level of unpredictability.
Risk management and staying informed about broader market conditions are crucial when navigating such extreme scenarios.
Melt-Up Factors observed in Technical Analysis:
Strong Momentum Indicators:
Bullish momentum, as indicated by rising indicators & oscillators having positive readings, can attract more buyers, fueling a melt-up.
Breakout Patterns:
Identification of bullish chart patterns like breakouts or continuation patterns may signal a strong upward move and contribute to a melt-up scenario.
Volume Surge:
High trading volumes accompanying the uptrend suggest increased participation and confidence among investors, reinforcing the melt-up trend.
Supportive Trendlines:
Upward-sloping trendlines provide a visual representation of the bullish trend, and their support can encourage further buying interest.
Liquidity Influx:
Positive market sentiment and an influx of liquidity, possibly driven by accommodative monetary policies, can contribute to a melt-up by facilitating higher valuations. Optimistic Market Psychology:
Positive news, economic indicators, or corporate earnings can create a bullish psychological environment, encouraging traders to adopt a buy-and-hold mentality.
Melt-Down Factors observed in Technical Analysis:
Divergence in Momentum Indicators:
Negative divergences in momentum indicators & oscillators can signal weakening upward momentum, potentially indicating an impending melt-down.
Bearish Reversal Patterns:
Recognition of bearish chart patterns, such as head and shoulders or double tops, can suggest a potential reversal in the trend, leading to a melt-down.
Increasing Selling Volumes:
A surge in selling volumes during a downtrend reflects strong selling pressure, exacerbating the downward movement and contributing to a melt-down.
Violation of Support Levels:
Breaking below key support levels or trendlines may trigger stop-loss orders and further selling, accelerating the melt-down process.
Market Sentiment Shifts:
Negative news, economic downturns, or geopolitical uncertainties can shift market sentiment, prompting investors to exit positions and contribute to a melt-down.
Liquidity Drying Up:
Reduced liquidity in the market, possibly due to risk aversion or tightening monetary policies, can exacerbate price declines during a melt-down.
Analyzing these technical factors provides insights into the dynamics of market movements, helping traders and investors navigate both bullish and bearish scenarios.
Stages of Melt-Up Using Technical Analysis:
Early Uptrend Recognition:
Identification of the initial signs of a bullish trend through technical indicators like moving averages, positive momentum, and breakout patterns.
Acceleration Phase:
Confirmation of the uptrend with strong momentum indicators, increasing trading volumes, and the development of bullish chart patterns, leading to an acceleration of price gains.
Overbought Conditions:
Recognition of overbought conditions using indicators, suggesting that the market may be reaching an unsustainable level of buying activity.
FOMO and Speculative Buying:
Increased speculation and FOMO behavior among investors, as indicated by rapid price increases, a surge in retail trading activity, and a shift towards riskier assets.
Parabolic Price Movement:
Observation of parabolic price movement, characterized by steep and unsustainable upward curves on charts, signaling an intensified phase of the melt-up.
Market Exuberance:
High levels of market exuberance and positive sentiment, possibly fueled by media coverage and optimistic economic outlooks, contributing to a euphoric atmosphere.
Stages of Melt-Down Using Technical Analysis:
Early Signs of Weakness:
Identification of initial signs of weakness in the uptrend, including negative divergences in momentum indicators, bearish reversal patterns, or a failure to sustain higher highs.
Loss of Key Support:
Breaking below key support levels or trendlines, triggering concerns among technical analysts about a potential shift in the trend.
Increased Selling Pressure:
Surge in selling volumes accompanied by downward price movements, signaling increased selling pressure and a potential acceleration of the melt-down.
Bearish Chart Patterns Confirmation:
Confirmation of bearish chart patterns, such as head and shoulders or double tops, supporting the case for a sustained downtrend.
Fear and Panic Selling:
Elevated fear and panic selling as investors rush to exit positions, exacerbating the downward pressure on prices.
Breakdown of Critical Levels:
Breaking through critical support levels, possibly triggering algorithmic trading strategies and stop-loss orders, intensifying the melt-down.
Understanding these stages using technical analysis can help traders and investors make informed decisions and implement risk management strategies during both melt-up and melt-down scenarios.
Risk and Dangers of a Market Melt-Up:
Overvaluation:
Melt-ups can lead to overvaluation, where asset prices detach from underlying fundamentals. This poses a risk of substantial losses when the market corrects.
Herding Behavior:
Investors may engage in herding behavior during a melt-up, following the crowd without considering fundamentals, increasing the risk of a sharp reversal.
Sudden Corrections:
Melt-ups are often followed by sudden corrections or market downturns. Investors entering late in the rally may face significant losses if they don't exit positions in time.
Excessive Risk-Taking:
The euphoria of a melt-up can lead to excessive risk-taking and leveraged positions, increasing vulnerability to market volatility.
Risk and Dangers of a Market Melt-Down:
Fast and Sharp Declines:
Melt-downs are characterized by fast and sharp declines in prices, catching investors off guard and resulting in substantial portfolio losses.
Panic Selling:
Fear and panic selling during a melt-down can exacerbate the decline, causing a cascading effect as more investors rush to liquidate positions.
Liquidity Issues:
Melt-downs may lead to liquidity issues, making it challenging for investors to exit positions at desired prices, amplifying losses.
Financial System Stress:
Severe market downturns can stress the financial system, potentially leading to disruptions in banking and other financial institutions.
Economic Impact:
Market melt-downs can have broader economic consequences, affecting consumer confidence, business investments, and overall economic stability.
A market melt-up poses risks as it can lead to overvaluation, herding behavior, and sudden corrections. Investors might be drawn into a euphoric buying frenzy, neglecting underlying fundamentals and taking excessive risks.
The danger lies in the potential for significant losses when the market corrects, catching latecomers off guard. Conversely, a market melt-down carries the risk of fast and sharp declines, triggering panic selling and liquidity issues. The rapid deterioration can stress the financial system, impacting not just investors but also having broader economic consequences. Both scenarios require vigilant risk management, strategic decision-making, and adaptability to navigate the inherent dangers associated with extreme market movements.
Using Technical Analysis to Mitigate Risks:
Risk Management:
Set clear risk management strategies, including stop-loss orders and position sizing, to protect against significant losses.
Diversification:
Diversify your portfolio across different asset classes to spread risk and reduce the impact of a severe market event.
Stay Informed:
Regularly monitor technical indicators, trend reversals, and market sentiment to stay informed about potential shifts in market conditions.
Avoid Chasing Trends:
Avoid chasing trends during melt-ups and practice disciplined investing to mitigate the risk of entering the market at unsustainable levels.
Adaptability:
Be adaptable and ready to adjust your investment strategy based on changing technical signals and market dynamics.
While technical analysis can provide valuable insights, it's essential to combine it with a holistic approach to risk management and a thorough understanding of market dynamics to navigate the challenges associated with both melt-ups and melt-downs.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in the technical analysis charts published on this TradingView account is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or trading strategies.
Trading and investing in financial markets involve risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. The charts and analysis presented here may not guarantee accuracy or completeness, and users are encouraged to conduct their own research and seek professional advice before making any investment decisions.
The author of these charts is not responsible for any losses, damages, or other liabilities arising from the use of the information presented. Users should be aware of the inherent risks associated with trading and carefully consider their financial situation and risk tolerance before engaging in any trading activities.
By accessing and using the information provided in these charts, users acknowledge and agree to the terms of this disclaimer.
NIFTY prediction for tomorrow 1 Mar 24As we discussed with NIFTY yesterday, NIFTY took support at 21900. and then become bullish.
If we see the chart data now:
The market is trading just above the 200 EMA after taking good support at 21900. The last two candles have been very volatile, with huge volumes in them, which indicates that nifty is going to be in upcoming sessions. RSI is trading at the resistance line; if it breaks it to the upside, it is going to give a nice momentum.
If we look at the OI data:
PCR = 0.86, which indicates the market's bullish structure. Where 22000, 21900, and 21800 have huge bullish OI buildup. Which is going to provide a good support. 22100, 22200, and 22300 have very nice CE writing, which is going to provide a good resistance point, which is also supported by the chart Price action data.
I expect the market to be inside the highlight zone with two different scenarios marked on the chart.
Reasons:
Price > EMAs show the market is having bullish sentiment.
RSI is at the trendline and about to cross 60; if it crosses 60 to the upside, we can expect a good bullish momentum.
Price > VWAP shows that the market price is balanced with volume.
PCR = 0.86 shows the market is bullish.
The market is trading inside the falling wedge. If it breaks upside, we can expect a good bullish momentum, which is also supported by the OI data.
Verdict:
Bullish
Plan of Action:
Once take support --> Sell 22000 PE (hedge it with 20 rs PE)
FASP levels for Nifty 29/02/2024The FASP for Nifty is listed for 29-02-2024. You can add this levels to your trade setup for better results. This should not be the only indicator but an additional tool to increase your winning possibilities.
What is Fibolysis Anchor SupRes Points(FASP)?
It is a unique level arrived by using Fibonacci Retracement , Fibonacci Extension , Standard Pivot levels under various Timeframes. It is an extensively analyzed level to draw the support and resistance levels for the next day. You can use these levels along with your trade setup to increase your winning odds.
Validity of the levels: 1 Day
How to use these levels?
The three levels on both sides are usually easily achievable. The Targets above are bit difficult to achieve in a single trading session. I use this fact to write intraday positions and to buy options.
Color Coding: Green is regular support and buying area, Red is strong exit area
Disclaimer: This is shared in the interest of educational purpose and for knowledge enhancement. Kindly refer it in the same light. I am not responsible for any profits or loss incurred based on this information.
NIFTY prediction for tomorrow 28 Feb 24Let's discuss the NIFTY Expiry prediction for tomorrow which gave a very nice fall today.
If we look at the chart now:
The market is trading at the support trendline. Also, the market is near 200 EMA, which might provide good support at this point. 21912 has also proven to be good price action support in the past.
If we look at the OI data:
PCR = 0.6, which shows the bearish market structure. Above the side, there is quite the resistance at 22,000, 22100, and 22200. and there is little support if the current level is broken to the downside.
If we look at the FII & DII data, it directly indicates a bearish market structure where pros have heavily shorted options.
Now, there are two cases at this point.
Case 1 : The market can take support at this support line. And move to the bull side.
Case 2 : If the market is broken to the downside. It can give the target till 21587.
Reasons:
Price-taking support at 200 EMA, which might lead it back to bullish momentum after some consolidation.
Price < EMA(13) means bulls are not having much strength.
RSI < 40 shows weak bulls strength.
OI data PCR = 0.60 shows heavy bearish.
FII and DII data show heavy bearishness.
Verdict : Bearish
Plan of Action:
Case 1: Takes support at 200 EMA --> Sell 22000 PE (Hedge it with 20 rs PE)
Case 2: If the market is broken to the downside. --> Sell 21900 CE (Hedge it with 20 rs CE)
Nifty Analysis For 29 Feb 24Buy and Sell when price sustain above or below our levels and see the results
Nifty intraday levels for monthly expiry 29/02/24.Nifty has formed a M pattern on the hourly charts and closed below 22k levels.
It has closed around the 20 ema on the daily charts. If there is a gap down opening, another selling can be seen in the market.
In case there is a gap up to flat opening, wait for the price to breach below the support zone.
Major support levels :- 21920, 21830
Tomorrow is the monthly expiry and today market gave a good selling market. There are chance of giving a good movement.
Another follow through can be seen in the market. So just watch the market takes out today's low.
Major resistance levels :- 22100, 22210
Just wait for a pattern formation around the zone and trade only the setup as option premium will give a decay.
If VIX is high, option premium will be high. Option buyer need to take a entry when there is momentum in the market.
Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
Nifty analysis for 28th feb 2024Nifty is travelling inside a channel. the possible support and resistance is marked in the chart.
Disclaimer: All information provided here is for educational purposes and not a recommendation, advice, research report, or stock tip of any nature. Analysis Posted here is just our view/personal study method on the stocks, commodities or other instruments and assets. Do your own analysis or consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
SELL NIFTY AROUND 9:30 AM | INTRADAY TRADE 28TH FEBGift Nifty indicting a minor gap-up opening. However, as per our SpanAttack timings algo we see a fall in Nifty around 9:30 which can be useful for Intraday traders to get some points on the downside.
I have marked the key resistance levels to take position.
Sell Nifty: 9:30 AM
To motivate us, Please like the idea If you agree with the analysis.
Happy Trading!
InvestPro India
FASP levels for Nifty 23/02/2024The FASP for Nifty is listed for 28-02-2024. You can add this levels to your trade setup for better results. This should not be the only indicator but an additional tool to increase your winning possibilities.
What is Fibolysis Anchor SupRes Points(FASP)?
It is a unique level arrived by using Fibonacci Retracement , Fibonacci Extension , Standard Pivot levels under various Timeframes. It is an extensively analyzed level to draw the support and resistance levels for the next day. You can use these levels along with your trade setup to increase your winning odds.
Validity of the levels: 1 Day
How to use these levels?
The three levels on both sides are usually easily achievable. The Targets above are bit difficult to achieve in a single trading session. I use this fact to write intraday positions and to buy options.
Color Coding: Green is regular support and buying area, Red is strong exit area
Disclaimer: This is shared in the interest of educational purpose and for knowledge enhancement. Kindly refer it in the same light. I am not responsible for any profits or loss incurred based on this information.
Nifty intraday levels for weekly expiry 22/02/24.Nifty has given nice bearish engulfing candle after a consolidation on the higher levels.
A good sell off in the market is showing some profit booking in the market and potential levels may be tested on the expiry.
It has close 22055 levels. If there is a gap up opening, there will be chance of a halt candle.
In case of a flat to gap down opening, there will be another red candle on the daily charts.
Short below 22k levels can be initiated with Major support zone around 21920, 21830.
There is a high probability of a gap filling trade.
Resistance levels :- 22090, 22240
Tomorrow is weekly expiry of the index, watch for option premiums chart while trading.
Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market
26 Feb ’24 — Except Energy, all the other sectors down in N50?Nifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️
Recap from yesterday: “We are not suggesting that all “roads lead to Rome theory” i.e. everything is bullish, but the probability of things going up seems higher than cutting through the supports of 22051 & 21913. You know us, the moment the supports are broken, we will exit the bullish position at a loss and go neutral.”
4mts chart
Almost all the sectors looked weak today, NiftyIT was the main villain - at a point, it was like 1.7% down. The energy sector ended the day with some meaningful gains, excluding that then everything was either in RED or flat. Interestingly, Nifty did not touch or break the 22051 support level today and due to that we do not think a status change is required.
The near ATM CALLs side had exorbitant premiums last week, most analysts would have even extrapolated to have a 22500+ close this expiry. Today’s price action ensured normalcy returned to these CALL premiums. Meanwhile, the PUT premiums are not elevated as well, so we do not expect a major breakout or breakdown soon.
On the higher timeframe, the flag pattern seems to have played out as per script. Ideally, we should expect the leg2 to start soon, but the premiums are not indicative. Also, we have the monthly expiry this week and things could get a bit volatile before we find a clear trend. We wish to stay bullish and as soon as the 22051 support gets broken - we wish to change our stance to neutral. If 21913 is getting broken in 1 to 2 days - we would even go bearish as the flag pattern will be totally negated.
63mts chart
23 Feb ’24 — Indices take a pause - yet again. Only to jump up?Nifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️
Recap from yesterday: “As soon as the 22051 resistance gave away, we had to change our stance from neutral to bullish. We would now like to see how higher the markets can go, we are assuming the momentum may not take us to 22700 for the monthly expiry.”
4mts chart
All 3 indices - Nifty50, BankNifty, and NiftyIT- were stuck in a tight range today, something that we usually see after a fast & furious move. The experts usually call it a flag pattern where a slight downward day occurs after a steaming UP day. Technically a pause also made sense - markets may be recalibrating between the short covering yesterday and a possible long build-up for next week. As long as the global macros remain positive, Nifty should remain charged up and ready to roll.
The indices staying flat would have ensured the straddlers would have made some money today, BN was quite shaky though - most likely it would have ended up hitting both stop losses. Nifty was far more stable today.
The flag pattern is quite prominent on the higher timeframe. We are not suggesting that all “roads lead to Rome theory” i.e. everything is bullish, but the probability of things going up seems higher than cutting through the supports of 22051 & 21913. You know us, the moment the supports are broken, we will exit the bullish position at a loss and go neutral. Till then we are going to keep looking upwards.
63mts chart
22 Feb ’24 —Back to winning ways, grass is greener at the Bull’sNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️
Recap from yesterday: “Since Nifty50 fell below our support line, we had to reverse the stance back to neutral. In case Nifty50 climbs back up tomorrow and hits a new ATH, today’s move will just appear as a blip, and the stance will go back to bullish.”
4mts chart
Honestly speaking, we fell into the bear trap today as the forenoon session was immensely negative. Look at the first 2 encircled regions. The first circle between open and 09.51 wherein we gave away to the 22051 support. The next 4 candles were also RED and we did not stop till the main support of 21913 was hit. We got our bias wrong as we gave weightage to the price action between 22051 & 21913, we thought the selling may not stop there.
The 2nd encircled area was at the 21913 region i.e. from 10.03 to 11.35. When we saw the markets were not cracking further, we adjusted our “short CALL” positions, and as markets started recovering, we trailed the “short PUT” positions to offset the gain in the short CEs. Again our view went absolutely wrong when the markets did not stop at 22051, even though we had a pause between 13.47 and 14.27. What then followed was the dream of an option buyer and a nightmare for option sellers like me. The momentum was so strong that we took out the ATH. Nifty had an intraday swing of 378 points ~ 1.73%. The swing was so wild that it would have taken out any stop loss set on premiums, over the last few days - markets are really testing the nerves of option traders.
Between the last expiry and today, N50 has gained 291pts ~ 1.33%. The moves of the last 4 days were recreated in just today’s session - must be a new record. As soon as the 22051 resistance gave away, we had to change our stance from neutral to bullish. We would now like to see how higher the markets can go, we are assuming the momentum may not take us to 22700 for the monthly expiry.
63mts chart
FASP levels for Nifty 23/02/2024The FASP for Nifty is listed for 23-02-2024. You can add this levels to your trade setup for better results. This should not be the only indicator but an additional tool to increase your winning possibilities.
What is Fibolysis Anchor SupRes Points(FASP)?
It is a unique level arrived by using Fibonacci Retracement , Fibonacci Extension , Standard Pivot levels under various Timeframes. It is an extensively analyzed level to draw the support and resistance levels for the next day. You can use these levels along with your trade setup to increase your winning odds.
Validity of the levels: 1 Day
How to use these levels?
The three levels on both sides are usually easily achievable. The Targets above are bit difficult to achieve in a single trading session. I use this fact to write intraday positions and to buy options.
Color Coding: Green is regular support and buying area, Red is strong exit area
Disclaimer: This is shared in the interest of educational purpose and for knowledge enhancement. Kindly refer it in the same light. I am not responsible for any profits or loss incurred based on this information.
#nifty directions and level for FEB 22"Good morning, friends! Here are the directions for February 22nd: The global market sentiment remains moderately bullish, supported by the Dow Jones, while our local market sentiment indicates a moderately bearish trend. It might open with a gap-up start, as suggested by Giftnifty, showing a +90 point increase.
Nifty had fallen sharply in the last session; however, Giftnifty indicates a 90-point positive start. This sentiment suggests a ranging market. So, if the gap-up sustains, we can expect a ranging market initially. After that, if it breaks the previous high, then we can anticipate a continuation of the rally. This is the basic structure.
Alternatively, if the gap-up doesn't sustain, then we can expect a minor correction. After that, if it finds support around 21920 to 50%, we can expect a minimum of a 23 to 38% pullback wave. However, if it consolidates or breaks that level solidly, then the correction will continue further.
NIFTY prediction for tomorrow 21 Feb 24As we have discussed, the nifty Bullish structure today has successfully broken and retraced to the upside.
Now, if we look at the chart data:
The market has given a successful breakout to the upside. The market is trading at ATH. The market has already retraced the breakout and has proven the bull's strength. Now, the market is ready to go up.
If we look at the OI data:
PCR = 1.22 shows that the market is bullish right now. Also, we do not have much resistance to the upside. If the rally starts, it will directly go to the 1st Fib level (1.414) at 22416. 22500 is the next good CE writing point, which is also supported by the Fib 1.414 level.
I expect the market to go up to the 22416 level for now.
Reasons:
Price> EMAs shows sthe market is having bullish sentiments.
RSI > 60 shows the market is in a bullish region.
Price> VWAP shows the market is bullish and has a balanced Price with volume.
OI data PCR = 1.22 shows the market is in bull's control right now. Also, 22500 will be providing the next resistance in the market.
Verdict:
Bullish
Plan of action:
Sell 22200 PE (hedge it with 20 rs premium)
16 Feb ’24 — Nifty stance upgraded to Bullish, BN NeutralNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️
Recap from yesterday: “A gap-up is ideal as it will quickly tip the balance to the Bulls as short sellers will have to run for cover. We wish to change the status from neutral to bullish only if we get a 63mts candle above the 21913 resistance line.”
4mts chart
We all knew it would be a gap-up today and see how the bears ran for cover when we opened 93 points ~ 0.43% above yesterday’s close. The spike in CALL premiums was enough to show the fear of short covering. Secondly, there was no attempt to close the gap - which would have left the Bears with no choice but to abandon their short position or roll over to the next week and find a similarly priced strike. Fortunately, most would not have made a heavy loss as the “real breakout” did not happen today. Nifty was just contented to hold the ground and not concede the territory.
After the first 63-minute candle we revised our stance to bullish, if you have read our last few reports - you would understand the rationale too. See the island formed above the resistance level of 21913. It is a classic breakout formation. From 15th Dec 2023 to 15th Feb 2024 - Nifty was in a narrow range of 21491 to 21913 with a couple of false breakouts/breakdowns. So we are keeping our fingers crossed this time to validate whether it works out. One way to do that is to check for follow-through price action. Blips do not last that long and we usually fall below the resistance (just like what happened on the last 2 occasions). Today is the first time I guess Nifty made the move ahead of BankNifty for a direction change. BankNifty has a lot of headroom left and if it catches up to its ATH - the impact on Nifty is going to be more than awesome.
63mts candle
