Nifty's Dark Clouds Gather: Bearish Sentiment Takes HoldAfter reaching a high near 26,280, the index encountered considerable resistance and subsequently fell.
A Head & Shoulders pattern is currently developing, leading to a negative sentiment in the market.
If the neckline is broken, the index may quickly decline to the 24,000 level. This level will be critical in assessing whether the index can bounce back or if it will drop below the support level.
Niftyprediction
Will Nifty & Bank Nifty Bounce Lead to a Rally or Fade on Dips?NIifty and Bank Nifty are poised for a bounce will this bounce turn into rally or it will fade away is the question.
Nifty : Resistance : 25200-25500-25750
Support : 24800-24700
Lakshman Rekha for Bull run is 24500.
Bank Nifty : Resistance : 51700-52100-53100
SUpport : 50400
Triangle breakout above 51700.
"Tomorrow’s Nifty 50 Secret: Trade with 90% Accurate Breakout LeFor tomorrow's Nifty 50 trading based on the chart:
The orange levels on your chart (24,948.20 and 25,064.80) are key pivot levels where high-probability trades can be taken.
If the market opens below 24,948.20, this level acts as a resistance zone, signaling potential for a selling opportunity as the market may face downward pressure.
If the market opens above 25,064.80, it becomes a support zone, signaling a buying opportunity as the market might continue upward momentum.
Use the 5-minute timeframe to closely track the price movement.
Entry strategy:
Buy trade: If Nifty breaks above 25,064.80 and holds, enter a long position for a breakout. This becomes a strong support level if the market opens above it.
Sell trade: If Nifty breaks below 24,948.20 and sustains, enter a short position. This becomes a solid resistance level if the market opens below it.
These levels are 90% accurate, and the plan is to wait for a clear breakout beyond these orange lines before entering a position.
Key takeaway: The direction of the opening will decide whether these levels act as buying or selling zones, making them crucial for your trade setups.
NIFTY50: INSTITUTIONAL LEVELS FOR 11/10/2024QUICK GUIDE
- Use 5 minute timeframe
- Try to take enters at retest
- Use multiple confirmation
- Read full description before investing
- Try to take ATM options or above
Explanation:
This is a very useful trading system. This means that you should not take a trade blindly, but rather that there is another confirmation to take the trade you can use this for perfect entry and perfect exit
This trading opportunity is based on volume, previous price, and price range , are included
Entry/Exit point's:
- It has very easy entry and exit points
- In this pair of lines with two colors are given (RED AND BLUE)
- In this the blue line is used to take long entry and the red line is used to take short entry (But it is all based on a more conformation from your trading plan)
Stop Loss/Take Profit:
Stop Loss
- According to this, if you take a long trade, its stop loss will be the red line just below ( A trade can exit either when the price crosses the red line or the 5 minute candlestick crosses the red line. (This can be done according to your preference) )
- A short entry should use the opposite rules to a long entry
Take Profit
-When you take a long entry according to the profit to be booked is on the next red line above. ( Or if there are other reasons, it can be a safe exit )
- Opposite rules for booking profit on long entry are to book profit on short trade. ( The blue line above is the stop loss of short entry )
Timeframe:
According to this, the time frame you should use while taking trades is 5 minutes time frames . (5 minute time frame works well in this)
Risk Disclaimer:
Trading carries significant risk and is not suitable for all traders. You may lose some or all of your capital in a matter of minutes or hours. Market conditions can change rapidly, and prices can move against you quickly. You may not always be able to exit at a favorable price, and you may be required to hold a position overnight, exposing yourself to additional risk. Day trading involves high risk, high leverage, and high stakes, and you should only trade with funds you can afford to lose. Please carefully consider your financial situation, risk tolerance, and trading objectives before engaging in day trading.
Engagement:
Share your insights, ask questions, and learn from others in the community. Whether you're a seasoned pro or just starting out, we're all in this together.
What's your take on the current market conditions? Which trading strategies are working for you? Let's discuss and help each other grow as traders!
Comment below and let's get the conversation started!
Original Content:
This trading setup is the result of my own innovation and expertise, and is not based on any publicly available information or third-party systems. It is a reflection of my dedication to developing a competitive edge in the markets.
NIFTY MATHEMATICAL LEVELS FOR THIS WEEKThese Levels are based on purely mathematical calculations.
Validity of levels are upto expiry of current week.
How to use these levels :-
* Mark these levels on your chart.
* Safe players Can use 15 min Time Frame
* Risky Traders Can use 5 min. Time Frame
* When Candle give Breakout / Breakdown to any level we have to enter with High/Low of that breaking candle.
* Targets will be another level marked on chart
* Stop Loss will be Low/High of that Breaking Candle.
* Trail your SL with every candle.
* Avoid Big Candles as SL will be high then.
* This is one of the Best Risk Reward Setup.
For Educational purpose only
Where the Nifty 50 index might head in the next few days?Technical Analysis: The chart indicates that Nifty is currently near the 25,000 mark, with key Fibonacci retracement levels acting as resistance and support zones. A notable resistance is at the 0.382 level around 25,277, while the 0.618 level near 25,653 might be another hurdle if the index manages a short-term rally. Given the recent bearish momentum, a further drop could test the 24,900 level, especially if the index fails to break above the 25,277 resistance.
Outlook: Given the technical setup and the current FII-DII dynamics, the Nifty could remain under pressure if FII selling continues. Traders should watch the support at 24,900 closely, as a break below this level could signal further downside. Conversely, if the Nifty can hold above 25,000 and gain momentum past 25,277, it may target the 25,653 level as the next resistance.
The outlook is cautious, with a bias towards a bearish trend unless there's a reversal in FII sentiment or a strong technical breakout above key resistance levels
Nifty weekly expiry analysis for 10/10/2024Market has given a nice movement and for two days it remained in a range but is volatile.
There are chance of market either follow the bearish trend or form a 'W' pattern.
Nifty has closed around crucial levels from where it can either reverse the trend or continue falling.
Major support level :- 24760, 24600
Resistance level :- 25210, 25480
The weekly expiry can show a trending move after a break out or break down.
Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
Nifty Intraday Levels | 9-OCT-2024This trading strategy focuses on scalping Nifty options based on institutional support and resistance zones and executing trades using order flow data. Here's a quick summary of the key points:
1️⃣ Zones to Focus on:
👉Green Zone: Represents institutional support.
👉Red Zone: Indicates institutional resistance.
👉Gap Between Zones: Typically ranges from 100-200 points.
👉Zone Creation: Uses pivot points and Fibonacci levels.
👉Price Action: An advanced version for refined entries and exits.
👉Chart Reference: Trades are executed based on the Nifty futures chart.
2️⃣ Trade Execution:
👉Order Flow Data: Trades are triggered by tracking the market's order flow.
👉Timeframes: Focus on the 1-minute and 5-minute charts for quick scalps.
👉Risk-Reward Ratio: Strict 1:2 (Risk 1 to gain 2).
👉Strike Price: Target at-the-money (ATM) or slightly in-the-money (ITM) options.
👉Position Sizing: Customize based on personal risk tolerance.
3️⃣ House Rules:
👉Sharp Execution: Be ready at 9:15 AM for market open.
👉Risk Management: Always a priority.
👉Quick Trades: Fast execution "morning breakfast".
👉Strict Stop-Loss: Set at 10 points to limit losses.
This method is well-structured for traders who prioritize risk management and quick scalping opportunities in the Nifty market.
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Nifty 50 Reversal: Critical Levels and Sign of a Possible ReboudThe Nifty 50 index has been showing signs of weakness recently, as indicated by the red candle formations and the current price trending below crucial Fibonacci retracement levels. As of today, Nifty has been testing the support zones near the 0.618 Fibonacci level (24,402.75), which could serve as a pivot for a potential reversal. Let's dive into the factors suggesting a possible market bounce from here.
Technical Overview
1. Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
The price has pulled back from the recent highs around 26,272.50 and is hovering near the 0.618 retracement level at 24,402.75. A break below this level could lead the index toward the next key level at 23,893.70, the 100% retracement mark.
On the upside, if the price manages to hold the 0.618 level, the next resistance would be the 0.5 level at 25,083.10.
2. Moving Averages:
The 200-day moving average is still trending upward, signaling long-term bullish momentum. However, the 50-day moving average is flattening, indicating indecision in the medium term.
The current price is hovering between the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, suggesting that the upcoming price action could be critical in determining the next major move.
3. MACD Analysis:
The MACD histogram has turned negative, and the MACD line is crossing below the signal line. This is typically a bearish signal, but it’s worth noting that we are nearing oversold conditions, and a bullish crossover could be on the horizon if buyers step in at these key support levels.
4. RSI Divergence:
The RSI is currently around the 36.77 level, nearing oversold territory. Historically, RSI readings below 40 in this range have often preceded significant rebounds in Nifty 50.
Watch for bullish divergence as the RSI nears this key level, as it may indicate that downward momentum is weakening and that buyers could soon gain control.
Institutional Flows
Recent data suggests that Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have been net sellers of Indian equities, particularly with large sell-offs in the cash segment amounting to ₹-8,293.41 crores on October 7, 2024. However, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) have stepped in with a net purchase of ₹13,245.12 crores. This balance between FII selling and DII buying has helped stabilize the market, but FII futures purchases have added some positive momentum.
Key Takeaways:
Support Zone: The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (24,402.75) is a critical support. A strong bounce from this zone could lead to a reversal.
Indicators: Oversold RSI levels suggest that the selling momentum is overextended, and we could see a shift in market sentiment.
Institutional Activity: DII buying is providing much-needed support to the market, and FII futures activity shows some signs of optimism.
Conclusion:
Traders should watch for signs of a reversal, especially if the price holds above the 24,400 zone. Confirmation will come from a break above the 25,083 level, which would signify a change in short-term trend dynamics. A failure to hold current levels, however, could lead the index to test the 23,893 mark.
Navigating the Bullish Surge: A Cautious Approach to InvestingThe Indian markets are experiencing an extraordinary rally, with major indices soaring to unprecedented heights. This surge is undoubtedly enticing for retail traders and investors eager to capitalize on the momentum. However, the pressing question remains: Are these elevated levels truly the right time to enter the market? Perhaps not.
To gain insight, we can turn to a diagram by Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue that illustrates the typical stages of a market bubble. When we overlay this framework onto the current landscape of Indian indices, it becomes apparent that we may be on the brink of significant market movement—potentially in the coming weeks.
History has shown us that markets can swing from euphoric bullishness to sharp corrections. Notable examples include the catastrophic crash of 2008 and the rapid declines during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. While we may not face declines as drastic as those events, it’s essential for retail traders to be proactive in safeguarding their investments.
One effective strategy to mitigate downside risk is to consider purchasing long dated put option. A put option provides the holder with the right to sell the underlying asset without the obligation to do so. This means that if the market experiences a downturn—whether in the immediate future or after a few weeks or months—the put option can yield significant profits during a substantial decline. On the flip side, if the market continues its upward trajectory, the put option will gradually lose value and may eventually become worthless as indices continue to set new records.
The key takeaway here is to keep your investment strategy straightforward and avoid unnecessary complexity. This is merely one of many strategies available for investors looking to protect their portfolios.
Final Thoughts: As we navigate these exciting yet unpredictable market conditions, it’s crucial to remain vigilant and informed. While the allure of all-time highs is compelling, prudent risk management is essential for long-term success in investing.
Disclaimer: All investments carry inherent market risks. This article is not a recommendation; please conduct your own analysis before making any trading or investment decisions.
India Inc Quarterly Earnings and Nifty Corelation We all know that our beloved NSE:NIFTY has shy of 1500 points in short time, falling from a cliff. Naturally people are eager to guess if the holy grail Bottom is there, or it will test the 4th of June Election Result Day low at least.
Being a price action student, it's always good to look at the history and try to take a leaf out from it. Specifically, when I can recall what happened one year back in October 2023 where there were substantial FII selloffs before Q2 results (of FY 23-24). Of course there is a slight difference in the situation. Last year the moonsoon was not that good, this year above normal.
So I took all the last 4 quarterly result and see what happened around these times in Daily timeframe.
As it's evident:
In 26/10/23 (Q2 results midway) there were a dip to 18850 level when RSI was at oversold region.
Within next two months, the Nifty gave ~15% return.
Again during 24th Jan'24 (Q3 results midway) there is a dip and then Nifty quickly recovered.
Again during 19/04/24 (Q4/annual results midway), there is a dip and then again smart recovery.
The things become even more interesting if we check the RSI beyond this point (last 6 months). Here are the obervations:
19th April'24, 9th May'24, 4th June'24, 5th Aug'24 - the RSI was at 40 level.
Price were more or less around same/similar level. (Except Aug when Nifty was at 24000).
Now the Nifty RSI was at 36. But the price is at 24800.
It's indices Hidden Bullish Divergence
My Expectation:
There can be a little more dip (lets say another 150-250 points, at max 24550).
Then Nifty starts recovering smartly and will try to reclaim the 25500 Resistance level.
We shall see what will happen next.
So essentially end of this week onwards expecting a 800/1000 points recovery, IMO.
Seems too optimistic? May be .. lets see.
Just sharing my personal views. End the day: Market is Supreme and Price Action is the King.
4th Oct 2024 - Nifty Slips 1130pts ~ 4.32%, stance bearishNifty Stance Bearish ️⬇️
What a dramatic week it has been, Nifty falls 1130pts ~ 4.32% after SEBI's new FnO rule changes go live. What spooked the markets? I guess the fear that liquidity may get sucked out post 20th November 2024. Or is it because China's stock market is going limit up?
The fall in our market was kind of different, usually the bear power lasts only 2 days after which the bulls will come in and rally the markets to new all time highs. Hope we get a bear run continuation for a while now, few of the stocks and the main indices in particular are overvalued. A retracement will shake off the greed and insanity.
Our stance has changed to bearish with the stop loss at 25247 above which we will go neutral.
High Probability of a NIFTY Correction!I've cloned the previous correction pattern (AB) and aligned it with the current top (C), which I am considering as the top of this bull run. Interestingly, the cloned correction aligns perfectly with key demand zones (highlighted as green boxes) and a trendline that has now converted from resistance to support.
Keep an eye on this. Could be an exciting time for Indian investors!
Nifty clear short signal!The Nifty index shows a clear short signal on the monthly charts, while the RSI (Relative Strength Index) is in the overbought zone. Historically, the market corrected by more than 10% whenever the RSI reached this overbought level. This pattern suggests that despite recent upward momentum, a significant correction could be on the horizon based on past market behavior. Combining this with other technical indicators can help confirm whether a deeper market pullback is likely.
Nifty 50-October 2024 viewI feel it is time to be little cautious.
Post 4th June(the election results day), we have seen a good rally in market from 21300 to 26250 today which is almost 25% and that too without a significant pull back or correction.
The rally since past couple of weeks is mainly due to large caps.
There is no reason to be extremely bearish but as per fib retracement, we are near golden ratio of 61.8%.
We might see a pullback or consolidation here before next move towards 27000+ levels.
Important levels to look at is 26000 below which we should expect 25800, 25500 and 25350.
Midsmall caps might see a bigger pullback than Nifty hence follow risk management in your swing positions. Nifty metal is looking quite bullish and is sector to keep in watchlist.
Please note that I am not expecting a crash or big correction and hence please don't overreact and do panic selling.
NIFTY Intraday Trade Setup For 3 Oct 2024NIFTY Intraday Trade Setup For 3 Oct 2024
Bullish-Above 25910
Invalid-Below 25860
T- 26110
Bearish-Below 25730
Invalid-Above 25780
T- 25525
NIFTY has closed on a flat note last day. A sell off triggered on 30 Sep and is likely to continue in the coming days as sentiment has most likely reversed to bearish. This whole scenario was already discussed on 29 Sep trade setup. Tomorrow's key levels are 25910 and 25730. Overall I will maintain bearish stance.
Coming to Thursday's trade setup, if index opens flat and a 15 Min candle closes above 25910 then we will long for the target of 26110.
For selling we need a 15 Min candle close below 25730. T- 25525.
In case of a big gap up/down, wait till 10 o'clock and mark the high and low of the trading range (5MIN). Trade on this range breakout.
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I am Not SEBI Registered
This is my personal analysis for my personal trading. Kindly consult your financial advisor before taking any actions based on this.