Nifty Elliott wave analysis for 27th Nov onwardMost probably wave B completes in this given range and after completion of wave B we can see another downfall of 262 to 322 points in Nifty. But for that trade as of now I have no exact stop loss. In market hours if you get clues for wave B completion then plan a trade with decent risk reward ratio.
"HAVE A NICE AND SAFE TRADING"
Niftyshort
Nifty Outlook and Trade Setup for October ExpiryOn 8th October it was published that Nifty may give a relief rally upto 10750 (Refer to the link below). The Index opened gap up on wednesday 17th Oct and made an high of 10710, just short of 40 points of our pullback target of 10750. Bears tookover the dalal street again after 6 trading sessions to give a closing at 10453 i.e. -257 points from highs.
The Pullback looks complete and now again the support of 10200 should get tested. However Index will have to fill the important bullish gap (10322 to 10251) which was made on 12th October opening. A close below the demand zone will confirm the levels of 10000/9950.
Trade Setup
Short Nifty at Cmp of 10453
Target / Important Support Levels (Trail your SL at every target level)
10320
10290
10250
10200
10140
10050
9950
Stop Loss
10565
Dead Cat Bounce / Relief Rally..!? Nifty Outlook 8th to 12th OctLast week we witnessed some intense selling. Nifty Lost close to 800 points in just 3 trading sessions. Now what next...!? Normally after such intense selling there is a pullback or a dead cat bounce. Also some key factors in the coming week which can trigger a pullback can be Cool off in Crude Prices, USD INR and Improved Q2 earnings from heavyweights like TCS, HUL etc.
Coming to technicals, 10100-10180/200 is a demand zone (blue shaded region). Also 10200 is a support as per OI Data. Expect some pullback if these support levels/demand zone holds. Resistance Levels or Targets for Pullback are mentioned below(also marked on chart with yellow lines):-
*10400-420
*10540-560 (strong resistance)
*10600
*10750-60 (major resistance)
There can be a very short term uptrend so I wont advice anyone to add positional longs.
Note: Trading pullbacks in a falling market is risky. Market trend is Sell on Rise. Ideally shorts should be added at every resistance level.
THE NEXT BEAR PHASE..!? 9950 / 9700 / 9550 / 9050 Levels Coming?Nifty Spot as on 4th Oct - 10599
The momentum of selling pressure, global sentiments and macros indicate that, this is the start of the NEXT BEAR PHASE...!!
Important Support Levels as on Monthly Chart are mentioned on the chart above.
Bulls Need to give a Monthly Closing above 10400 to avoid break of the bull run trend line from Feb '16 to Aug '18.
If 10400 breaks and we get a monthly closing then Nifty can fall all the way down to test the Monthly Support Trend Line.
Positional Short @Cmp of 10599
Target 10400 / 9950 / 9700
Stop Loss 10865
Nifty Outlook 4th October and Trade SetupNifty will test the channel support around 10800 and likely break it to test it's 200 DEMA at 10770. Important Resistance Levels (purple) and Support Levels (Green) are marked above in chart.
Trade Setup :-
CMP 10850
Short @Cmp or in 10900-930 zone
Stop loss 10985
Target of 10800 / 10770 / 10750 / 10735
All the levels mentioned above are spot.
Bulls need to protect 10750-770 or else it's *GAME OVER*Nifty is resting at support of 10820-50.
Global sentiments like Rising Crude, Depreciating Rupee, Rising Bond Yields and not to forget Trump threatening to impose sanctions on India are the major reasons of such big selloff.
These negative sentiments will shift Nifty lower towards its 200 days exponential moving average(DEMA) placed at 10770. As per Options chain support lies around 10700.
3 consecutive closes below 10750-770 can trigger a start of a Bear Market ending a long 32 months of Bull Run from January 2016 to August 2018.
Nifty updated counts (Elliott Wave Analysis)In this post I will be discussing 2 Hypo's basically both are suggesting that we have atleast one more up leg remaining before some big downside can be seen.
Hypo 1 posted above suggests that we are in an Extended W.(5) which looks to be in it's final stages.
Hypo 2 posted below considers W.B/2 as a Running Flat instead of a Triangle and suggests that we may be currently moving in an Extended W.(3).
Will update further as this market progresses.