30 May 2024 - Nifty did not break the 22519 decisively, bearish Over the last 1 week, Nifty hits a new ATH of 23110 and falls 3% ~ 693pts. On a week-2-week basis, we have only fallen 395pts ~ 1.72%. What is more important is that we have started a nice reversal, what needs to be seen is if we get a stronger fall this time.
On every other occasion, the dip buyers emerged and ensured our indices were continuing the one-way trip i.e. upwards. Usually, every bull run will have a healthy correction, but in our case - we never even had a decent fall.
Yesterday we went short on Nifty and stayed neutral on BankNifty. Quite happy to see those trades went quite well. Nifty went all the way down to 22417 before retracing the support level of 22519 to close above. If we closed below 22519 today - it would have given a lot of confidence to the bears.
Nevertheless, our view still remains bearish for Nifty and neutral for BankNifty. The real momentum should pick up once BN also joins N50 by breaking its support of 48661.
Niftytomorrow
NIFTY prediction for tomorrow 31 May 24As we discussed, Nifty had a bearish structure; It has fallen by 287 points.
If we look at the chart now:
The market is trading in the bearish zone below 200 EMA. The market has taken support from the 0.50 Fib level while making a Morningstar pattern with a very nice volume spike. Price is trading below EMAs, showing a weak bull structure.
If we look at the OI data:
PCR = 0.53, which has fallen from 0.63, shows a market bearish structure. 22500 is going to be MaxPain. There is significantly more CE writing than PE writing, which shows that, right now, big players are just pushing the market to the downside.
I am expecting:
Case 1: Inside the Orange trendline, the market is going to be sideways in the range 22465-22613.
Case 2: If the market breaks 22465 to the downside, we might see more bearishness to lower levels of 22200.
Reasons:
RSI < 40 falling from the upside shows a good bearish strength.
RSI showing Bullish divergence.
Price < EMA(13,200), which indicates a bearish market.
The market has formed a lower high lower low structure in 15-min TH that indicates the market is bearish unless the market tends to form a Higher-High.
PCR = 0.53 indicates huge bearishness.
Price < VWAP shows that a weak market structure can lead to a bearish market.
The market is making Morningstar star, which might force the market to hold the 22465 level.
Verdict: Bearish or Sideways
Plan of action :
Case 1: Sideways: Sell 22450 PE & 22650 CE (Hedge it with 30/-)
Case 2: Bearish: 22400 CE (Hedge it with 30/- CE) if the market continues bearish momentum.
Nifty levels - May 31, 2024Nifty support and resistance levels are valuable tools for making informed trading decisions, specifically when combined with the analysis of 5-minute timeframe candlesticks and VWAP. By closely monitoring these levels and observing the price movements within this timeframe, traders can enhance the accuracy of their entry and exit points. It is important to bear in mind that support and resistance levels are not fixed, and they can change over time as market conditions evolve.
The dashed lines on the chart indicate the reaction levels, serving as additional points of significance to consider. Furthermore, take note of the response at the levels of the High, Low, and Close values from the day prior.
We hope you find this information beneficial in your trading endeavors.
* If you found the idea appealing, kindly tap the Boost icon located at the bottom right. We encourage you to share your thoughts and comments regarding it.
Wishing you success in your trading activities!
#Nifty Directions and levels for May 30th.Good morning, friends! 🌺🍬 Here are the directions for May 30th:
The global market continues to show a bearish sentiment based on the Dow Jones, while our local market also shows a bearish trend. Today, the market may open with a slight gap-down, as indicated by GiftNifty, which shows a decrease of 70 points.
But, I'm not sure if this is due to global issues or contract rollover with GiftNifty. Anyway, let's look at the Nifty direction.
Nifty has fallen with some minor swings. If the market opens with a gap-down, then the 38% Fibonacci level might act as a strong support. If it finds support there, then we can expect a pullback of 23 to 38% max. It could be a minor retracement, and if it gets rejected there, then the correction will likely continue. On the other hand, if the pullback structure has a solid candle formation, it might break the 38% Fibonacci level(upside). If it breaks, then we can expect 50 to 61% for the next target. If we want to state this more clearly, it may turn into a range between the upcoming low and the 61% Fibonacci level. This sentiment is also applicable for a neutral to gap-up situation because, as I mentioned, I don't know exactly why GiftNifty is showing a negative sentiment.
The alternative scenario is if the gap-down sustains and breaks the immediate support with some consolidation or immediately, then the correction will likely continue.
29 May 2024 - 22781 broken and we just went bearishOver the last 2 sessions, we tried to explain why we would have to go directly to bearish from bullish. One of the reasons was that we fell below the level that had 2 double tops in April & May. Secondly, there were no additional support/resistance points in between for a neutral zone.
What I am not sure about is, whether we can continue the downward momentum, especially because June 4th is less than a week away. If BJP wins back the 3rd time, the markets should outperform. If they get a lower number of seats - we may lose a lot of ground.
Hope my direction is right just in time, over the last 5 to 6 months, my directional strategies were just eating the dirt and bleeding RED. I am also quite aware that a move of 1000+ points could level the mounted losses.
For tomorrow we wish to start with a bearish tone and go long if 22781 is breached in the 63mts TF.
NIFTY prediction for tomorrow 30 May As we discussed, Nifty had a bearish structure; It has fallen by 187 points.
If we look at the chart now:
The market is trading in the bearish zone. The market is trading near the 0.38 fib level, which might provide a good support zone. But I am expecting the market to further go down till fib 0.50 (22481) levels. All the important levels have been marked on the chart.
If we look at the OI data:
PCR = 0.65 shows a market bearish structure. As tomorrow is NIFTY expiry, 22700 is going to provide a max-pain. There is more call writing on higher levels than PE writing on lower levels. The market is likely to end near 22500.
Looking at the data, NIFTY might go bearish till 200 EMA. .
Reasons:
RSI < 40 falling from the upside shows a good bearish strength.
EMA(13) > Price > EMA(200), which indicates an indecisive or rather sideways market.
The market has formed a lower high lower low structure in 15-min TH that indicates the market is bearish.
PCR = 0.65 indicates bearishness.
Price < VWAP shows that a weak market structure can lead to a bearish market.
Verdict: Bearish
Plan of action : 22700 CE (Hedge it with 10/-) if the market continues bearish momentum.
Note: you can target 200 EMA targets.
Nifty levels - May 30, 2024Nifty support and resistance levels are valuable tools for making informed trading decisions, specifically when combined with the analysis of 5-minute timeframe candlesticks and VWAP. By closely monitoring these levels and observing the price movements within this timeframe, traders can enhance the accuracy of their entry and exit points. It is important to bear in mind that support and resistance levels are not fixed, and they can change over time as market conditions evolve.
The dashed lines on the chart indicate the reaction levels, serving as additional points of significance to consider. Furthermore, take note of the response at the levels of the High, Low, and Close values from the day prior.
We hope you find this information beneficial in your trading endeavors.
* If you found the idea appealing, kindly tap the Boost icon located at the bottom right. We encourage you to share your thoughts and comments regarding it.
Wishing you success in your trading activities!
Nifty on Radar - 28 MayToday we have a red candle with Low High and Low Low.
The price could retest the level of 22800 which is an important retracement level.
Also the bands are in an expansion zone.
The probability on down side is more than 50%.
Intraday trade range
S1-22,800 | R1-23,100
Disclaimer: This is my pre market analysis and my trading journal. Not a suggestion to buy or sell.
28 May 2024 - Still Bullish on Nifty, 22781 laxman rekhaAfter we had a slightly red day, i am not changing my stance to bearish yet. I would prefer the 22781 critical support to be taken out before going short. I still believe N50 is catching its breath after the 1100+pts run from 16th May, but the moment we fall below 22871, we are going below the previous ATHs and that could prove quite tricky.
In the last 2 instances i.e. on 10th Apr, 3rd May we had noticeable corrections - so the base case to go bearish may be profitable.
Nifty & Bank Nifty Analysis For 29 May 2024In this video, we'll discuss about Today's Market Movement and Tomorrow's Analysis in Nifty, Banknifty and other segments too.
Whether you're a seasoned trader or just starting in the stock market, this analysis will help you in Learning about Market. Let's get right into it!
✅I hope you liked the analysis. Be sure to hit that LIKE.
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Disclaimer : All views and charts shared in this video are purely for knowledge and information purposes only. Trading is Very Risky Business and it should only be done with proper Knowledge. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment based on your own personal circumstances.
NIFTY Prediction for tomorrow 29 May 24As we discussed, Nifty has a sideways or bearish structure; it ended sideways in 1st half, then bearish later 2nd half.
If we look at the chart now:
The market has broken 50 EMA and a good support zone to the downside. Also, an EMA(13, 50) bearish crossover is about to happen, which might lead to a bearish market structure. The market is making an HNS pattern and has broken the neckline to the downside, which might lead to a target of 22600 levels.
If we look at the OI data:
PCR = 0.80, which has fallen from 0.89, shows good CE writing at higher levels. 23000 will be acting as hard resistance at higher levels. Other than that, Nifty has good resistance at 23100, 23200, and 23300.
Looking at the data, Nifty might go bearish in the upcoming session with a target of 22600 .
Reasons:
RSI < 40 falling from the upside shows a good bearish strength.
EMA(13) > Price > EMA(50, 200), which indicates an indecisive or rather sideways market.
The market has formed a lower high that indicates the market is bearish.
PCR = 0.80 indicates mild bullishness, but this has fallen from 0.89, which shows good CE writing at higher levels.
Price < VWAP shows that a weak market structure can lead to a bearish market.
Verdict: Bearish
Plan of action : 22800 PE (Hedge it with 10/-) if the market continues bearish momentum.
Note: you can target 200 EMA targets.
Nifty levels - May 29, 2024Nifty support and resistance levels are valuable tools for making informed trading decisions, specifically when combined with the analysis of 5-minute timeframe candlesticks and VWAP. By closely monitoring these levels and observing the price movements within this timeframe, traders can enhance the accuracy of their entry and exit points. It is important to bear in mind that support and resistance levels are not fixed, and they can change over time as market conditions evolve.
The dashed lines on the chart indicate the reaction levels, serving as additional points of significance to consider. Furthermore, take note of the response at the levels of the High, Low, and Close values from the day prior.
We hope you find this information beneficial in your trading endeavors.
* If you found the idea appealing, kindly tap the Boost icon located at the bottom right. We encourage you to share your thoughts and comments regarding it.
Wishing you success in your trading activities!
Nifty on Radar - 27 MayA strong red candle with High High and Low Low structure.
The price could retest the level of 22800 which is an important retracement level.
Also the bands are in an expansion zone.
The probability on both sides is 50%.
Intraday trade range
S1-22,800 | R1-23,100
Disclaimer: This is my pre market analysis and my trading journal. Not a suggestion to buy or sell.
#Nifty Directions and levels for May 28th.Good morning, friends! 🌺🍬 Here are the directions for May 28th:
The global market is maintaining a bearish sentiment based on the Dow Jones, while our local market suggests a moderately bullish trend. We might see a neutral to slightly gap-down start today, as indicated by GiftNifty, which shows a decrease of 15 points.
In the previous session, Nifty had sharply rejected in the second half, closing at a neutral price. Today, GiftNifty is also indicating a neutral opening. If we take a bias based on the Dow Jones, HDFC Bank, and RIL, they are suggesting a neutral sentiment.
So, my expectation is that if Nifty opens neutral or if the initial market takes a pullback, we can expect a range market within the previous day's range. If it breaks either upside or downside after that, then we can follow that trend. In my opinion, if it forms a range, it may continue the rally.
Alternatively, if the market takes a correction initially, it could reach the Fibonacci level of 50%, which is a strong support. After that correction, if it finds support there, we can expect a minimum pullback of 38% to 50%.
Note: However, if the correction occurs sharply and if it breaks or consolidates around the Fibonacci level of 50%, then the correction will likely continue.
NIFTY prediction for tomorrow 28 MayAs we discussed, Nifty has completed its 2nd wave and touched the mentioned target.
If we look at the chart now:
The market is trading in a heavy supply zone. Also, in the second half of today, the market had a huge PE windup. After this huge momentum, the market needs some consolidation to move on either side. There was a huge volume spike that shows the market is not yet ready to break 23000 levels.
All important levels have been marked at the chart.
If we look at the OI data:
PCR = 0.89, which has fallen from 1.28. shows a good PE wind-off. The market might take some consolidation in the range 22800 - 23100. 23000 is still the maximum amount of pain in the market. sufficient CE and PE are writing both sides. But CE is freshly written, which indicates bears are slowly increasing their position in the market.
I expect the market to go sideways or bearish.
Reasons:
RSI < 50 falling from the upside shows a good reduction in the bull's strength.
EMA(13) > Price > EMA(50, 200), which indicates an indecisive or rather sideways market.
The market is still making HH & equal low, which indicates a reduction in bull power. If it makes a lower low, the market will have a good fall.
PCR = 0.98 indicates bullishness, but this has fallen from 1.34, which shows lots of profit booking on the upside.
Price < VWAP shows that a weak market structure can lead to a bearish or sideways market.
Verdict : Sideways or Bearish
Plan of action : Sell 23000 CE and 22800 PE (Hedge it with 10/-)
Note: Exit CE if nifty breaks 23000 to the upside & Exit PE if it breaks 22800 to the downside. But right now, there are more chances for the market to be sideways or bearish
Nifty levels - May 28, 2024Nifty support and resistance levels are valuable tools for making informed trading decisions, specifically when combined with the analysis of 5-minute timeframe candlesticks and VWAP. By closely monitoring these levels and observing the price movements within this timeframe, traders can enhance the accuracy of their entry and exit points. It is important to bear in mind that support and resistance levels are not fixed, and they can change over time as market conditions evolve.
The dashed lines on the chart indicate the reaction levels, serving as additional points of significance to consider. Furthermore, take note of the response at the levels of the High, Low, and Close values from the day prior.
We hope you find this information beneficial in your trading endeavors.
* If you found the idea appealing, kindly tap the Boost icon located at the bottom right. We encourage you to share your thoughts and comments regarding it.
Wishing you success in your trading activities!
#Nifty directions and levels for May 27th.Good morning, friends! 🌺🍬 Here are the directions for May 27th:
The global market is maintaining a bearish sentiment based on the Dow Jones, while our local market suggests a bullish trend. We might see a neutral to slightly gap-down start, as indicated by GiftNifty, which shows a decrease of 10 points.
First, let's look at the bias:
> Whenever consolidation forms after a solid structure, the market may follow that direction. The current structure indicates a bullish sentiment.
> The major weightage stocks (HDFCBANK and RIL) both have solid bullish candles, so if this continues, the index may also continue the rally.
Nifty has consolidated after a sharp rally, and today, GiftNifty is also indicating a neutral start. This suggests that the consolidation may continue for a bit. However, if the initial market takes a pullback, we can expect the rally to continue. According to the wave structure, it could be a sub-wave 5. This is a distribution wave, so it will reach the level of 23097 with less volume. However, if the pullback candle is a solid, long green candle, we could expect the level of 23197.
Alternatively, if the initial market takes a correction, it could continue the correction of the 4th sub-wave, which is a consolidation wave. It may correct to a maximum level of 38%. If it finds support there, we could expect a bounce back.
24 May 2024 - A Pause after a run, stance is still bullishNifty opened inline and traded in a short range, this came as a pause after the range expansion that came on 23rd. Since there are no resistance levels as we are at ATH, no one could guess with accuracy what will be the top.
Our stance remains bullish and will go neutral only if 22779 is broken.
Nifty levels and zones for coming week NSE:NIFTY
1) Don't Jump in to trade at the beginning of the market. Let it get settle for 15-20min first and judge the price action.
2) Everything is mentioned on the chart. I hope it is easy to understand.
3) All the levels will work as support, resistance, entry and exit w.r.t price action near that level.
4) Avoid gap up or gap down chase. Wait and trade between zones.
Please refer below chart for levels.
Hope I made it easy to understand it.
Do comment your doubt or suggestion.
Note: Trade with Strict SL. It may or may not hit all the levels. So one can book profit / loss at respective level considering how price action works near that level.
Nifty 25k soon!Expect NIFTY to test 25,000 levels in coming few weeks .
NIFTY on weekly gave a rising wedge upside breakout which is a low probability event .
Low probability events lead to trapped buyers/sellers on both sides.
Price usually reached the approximate height of the pattern where both will enter/exit new positions.
Cheers @piyushrawtani
23 May 2024 - Nifty almost kissed 23000 today, Bulls charged upNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️
Nifty had an impressive 417pts ~ 1.85% intraday rally, although the bullishness was predicted - I was quite surprised that we had such momentum today, and that too before election results.
But if you look at the data objectively, what we had today was quite reasonable. After all, we were breaking out from the all-time highs and usually, that means a quick surge of which the excesses will be shaved off in a day or two. For tomorrow, our bullish stance continues and there are no more resistances above this level, meaning we would not really know where the next stop would be.
Nifty on Radar - 23 MayFor the next potential level I use Fibonacci Extension.
So, the next Important Level to consider is 23274.55
Also the expansion in both bands is equally distributed, this indicates the uptrend will continue.
Disclaimer: This is my pre market analysis and my trading journal. Not a suggestion to buy or sell.