Niftytrading
BIG GAME BEING PLAYED!!!! FAKE UPSIDE? WHERE ARE WE HEADING? In the past 2 months Nifty has given us many shockers. From the major fall on 21 Sept to the Sudden Recovery of 150/ 800 Points in Nifty / Bank Nifty out of nowhere on 10 October.
FII / DII are large investor and have the money and techniques to move the market in the direction they wish to. In started in September when they began to take Short Positions. Since the beginning of September they were shorting heavily. On 19 September they were net 44K+ Short. The downfall on the next 4 days was used to cover these shorts. Nifty / Bank Nifty fell 400/1000 Points to cover these 44K shorts. Remember this figure.
In October, some of us started thinking that the market is done with the correction and started adding longs. However FII/DII has been still shorting since the very first day of October. In the past week, Nifty touched -300 twice and reached 10200. Now one thing which will amaze you is, even at 10200, FII/DII did not squared off their position i.e. they are still carrying their short position. So the first question arise, when will they close their position?
Mind you, In October FII / DII have having double the number of shorts than in September. (80K i.e. a level which can kill the market)
Today on 10 October, Nifty rose 150 Points and Bank Nifty rose 800 Points. However no panic was shown by the big players, and they continue to add shorts in big numbers and have increased their shorts by 18K+ (i.e. a whopping 25%+). Now, Since FII/DII are the smartest player, each of their move is calculated and they do not make any move irrationally. Their increased shorts only Indicate a big downfall coming up.
Also, answer my prior question, WHEN WILL THEY CLOSE THEIR SHORTS?
1. Market will rise more, making people believe that the bullish time has arrived and when all the bulls have taken long position. Then market will begin to fell. Market might show a maximum of 10550 ( Resistance) or 10640 (38.2 Fibo Level)
2. The Rose of 10 October, will be used by FII/DII to add more short position and increase the average shorting level.
Since they did not close their short positions at 10200. They will close it at a EVEN LOWER PRICE. October being a result result, a bad result of a big Nifty 50 company might lead to panic and market will start falling like a house of cards.
Also, I should mention 2 thoughts I have in mind :
1. Either this market rise will be used by FII/DII to average their Shorting Level, because market will not fall below 10200.
2. Or They expect even lower Levels and want huge money, and thus want to short at every rise!
These are just my thoughts, and my view to the things going around. I hope it Helps.
Nifty Trading Ideas from Current Level.The first link is of Nifty daily chart where Nifty is close to two zones namely zone -1 & zone - 2, from where an impulse action has the possibility to hit the first competitive target of 9792.05 . Many are saying that there might be a support at around price range of zone -1, which according to the daily chart it is showing that it is a supply becoming demand zone
NIFTY DAILY -
But according to the weekly chart there is nothing. So a long is not recommended in zone -1 as there is strong chance of the zone getting broken. Also from zone-1, risk to reward is not 1:3 till target of 9792.05 . So nothing from zone-1.
NIFTY WEEKLY -
In zone -2, according to daily its a good demand zone.Weekly also showing the same thing. So from zone-2, a long is recommended according to daily chart till the first competitive target. Also risk to reward is more than 1:3. So a long from zone -2 in cash or future (in the money) is recommended. Place Entry and Stop-loss according to the zone marked. Also get out of any short positions when price reaches Zone-2 .
And if price breaks Zone-2 then shorting till zone-3 can be done. Price can have impulsive movements in-between Zone-2 & Zone-3 but there will be no positive trend reversal until Zone-3 is reached as it has the highest probability to be the maximum pullback.Fibonacci levels are drawn as a contrarian. Also it is a very good demand zone. So if nifty touches Zone-3, it will make a new high. A long from Zone-3 can be done thereafter.
Note:- I will be following my own analysis as above and someone else following it should do at their own risk.
Peace!!
Nifty 50 : Potential Gartley & Bat patternIn Nifty we have two potential patterns, when there is potential patterns bcos of greed we tend to trade CD moves, its really bad habit. You should not trade CD move during your learning phase of patterns. The safest setup is to trade after pattern completion from D point.
In Nifty, a week before we had more than 300 points in 10 days just by patterns but that doesn't mean that pattern is winner everytime, we should realize that fact. The above patterns may or may not complete. If it completes I will trade this setup else I will look for other trade setups. Its simple as that but don't take positions just based on Belief that it will work,its bad for your capital !
Lets wait for pattern completion....If no, lets search next trade setup !
