Nifty daily analysis for 22/08/23.Today the markets tried to move in the upward direction but nifty constantly struggled to cross 19400 level as there is also 61.8% fibonacci level.
Nifty tried to cross the level but couldn't sustain above it. The market has closed around 61.8% fib level and if the market again go for a dip it will be a chance to short the markets.
On the hourly charts, market formed a grave stone doji and recovered forming a marubozu candle but remained range bound in the second half of the session.
Though the market has given a break out of 20 ema but has taken a serious rejection from 200 ema. Tried not enter any bullish trades until the market starts trading above the moving averages.
On 15 minutes charts too, market took resistance from the moving average and has closed below both the moving averages.
Support :- 19360, 19260
Resistance :- 19460, 19550
During the last hour, there was a sell off and there are chance of market going for another dip. Even the global market are also showing some negativity at present.
Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
Niftytrading
Morning Mantra - 21st August 2023Dear All,
As we had observed a Doji formation on the Day chart of Nifty on the last Friday. Likewise, fortunately we had witnessed a closing of above 19300 on Friday itself.
However, overall the situation is still quite crucial as of now, since Nifty is finding difficulty and is not being able to reach and sustain above the level 19550. Therefore, in such a situation it is being very difficult to predict about the next move of the Market, as of now. But still we have the 2 important levels to consider, i.e., 19300 and 19550 on the upper side.
Moreover, just as we had stated on the last Friday as well, similarly there’s a probability to witness some panic in the Market if in case Nifty breaks the level of 19300 on closing basis.
So, in such a situation, following the Cherry Picking strategy will be a good idea here, also it will be better to keep Rebalancing the portfolio .
Furthermore, for those who had already been rebalancing their portfolios at around the 20000 level, they can be suggested to partially accumulate in the Market following the Cherry Picking strategy as of now.
Keep Trading!
Keep Investing!
Regards,
Alok Daiya
SEBI Registered Research Analyst
Change in trend - 3 black crowsAnalyze the time frame:
Monthly : Candle engulfing
Weekly: Black Crows
Daily: Lower lows and lower highs are formation
1. Closed below 19375, implying negative
sentiment.
2. Exit the regression channel
3. A decrease in relative strength.
The triggering factor is,
1. 33/50 stock decrease.
2. The banking industry is the most
affected.
Moving forward,
1. The anchor candle would be critical; we could see some sideways movement, and it is expected to act as support.
2. If the nifty closes below 18600 in the following 3-4 weeks, it will be considered bearish.
To summarize, a sideways moment is likely to occur ; however, there is no need to worry; a closure below 18600 will be the price to ACT
17 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty - Bears are still fighting 🐻🐻Nifty Weekly Analysis
We have fallen 201pts ~ 1.03% between the last expiry and today. If you notice the chart below, Nifty is closely following the bearish trend line and we will get a range convergence soon. If the support line of 19309 is not breaking - we will have a bullish reversal. Global macros, India inflation data and other sentiments are pointing for a bearish case though. What will Nifty do?
Nifty Daily Analysis
I was very much impressed with today’s price action by Nifty. If you notice the trades we had yesterday - it was much contrary to what traders were anticipating. Today we just negated those moves.
You might remember the 15.00 candle that went up 45 pts yesterday - it really made no sense. I was thoroughly looking for any events to find out why we had a surge yesterday, but today’s reversal and negation brings back sanity.
We had 2 legs for the fall today, the first leg a fall of 83pts till 10.00 and then the second leg of 89pts between 11.05 to 13.00. The options flow did indicate we would have a bear day today, but I seriously thought the 19309 support line may get broken.
RELIANCE, ITC, HDFCBK, LT, KOTAKBK, BAJFINANCE were the main losers today and TITAN, ADANIENT, SBIN the main winners. The market depth favored the bears too with 33/50 in red.
Finally this is what we have now, the pressure mounting on Nifty50 to breakout or breakdown. Technical Analysis points to a breakout and the Fundamental Analysis hinting at a breakdown due to poor macros. Today’s 99pts fall is giving some hope to the otherwise beaten bears - their first priority tomorrow would be to take out the 19309 support to gather immense downside momentum. I am changing my stance from neutral to 60% bearish & 40% neutral for tomorrow.
If you have any questions - please comment below
Nifty Daily Support and Resistance LevelsNifty 50 Support and Resistance levels- took lot of time to analyse and mark these for you guys and these are marked for a reason that prices may breakdown or breakout from these levels, also can stay in these range for a long time (if R1 not broken)
Utilise these levels with other indicators to make your trading MORE profitable.
Please do like and let me know if you want levels for any other scripts :)
Morning Mantra - 10th August 2023Dear All,
So finally we have observed the impact of witnessing a closing of above 19550 for 2 consecutive days, just as it was stated. As after those 2 days, Nifty has ultimately given us a positive closing of approx 19632.55 yesterday.
Altogether, the Market is currently in a very choppy mode. Where we can clearly observe the stock specific momentum, which is also due to the ongoing Result season.
So, as per the current scenario, we have to keep a track on the important levels of 19300-19550-19800.
Where, since Nifty is currently trading above the level of 19550, so we can expect it to move towards the level 19800 with the support of 19550 on closing basis. On the other hand, a closing below 19550, will activate the level of 19300 once again.
Therefore, in the meanwhile, be stock specific and keep following the Cherry Picking strategy.
Keep Trading!
Keep Investing!
Regards ,
Alok Daiya
SEBI Registered Research Analyst
Morning Mantra - 9th August 2023Dear All,
Fortunately, we had witnessed a closing of above 19550 in Nifty, for the 2nd consecutive day, yesterday.
So for now, we are still positive on the Market, until the index is trading above 19300. Where 19800 will play a crucial role as a level of Resistance.
Furthermore, it is better to be stock specific and to keep following the Cherry Picking strategy, as of now.
Regards,
Alok Daiya
SEBI Registered Research Analyst
Nifty TradeSetup For 08-08-2023Nifty important intraday levels to watch for 08-08-2023
#Support: 19570
Short if candle closes below 19570
#resistance: 19620
Long if candle closes above 19620
#Targets on downside after break of support.
Target 1= 19530
Target 2= 19460
#Targets on upside after break of resistance.
Target 1= 19680
Target 2= 19735
Remember each level will act as a support and resistance individually so there is a probability of reversal on either side. Please do your own research before initiating any trade. Always keep stoploss in order to protect your capital.
Follow us for more such information and educational ideas. Give it a like if you appreciate the idea.
Queries will be answered in comment section.
Morning Mantra - 7th of August 2023Dear All,
The previous week was in a way quite terrific for us, as Nifty had somehow touched all of its important levels in a week itself, i.e. from 19800-19550-19300 approx.
Now, as per the current situation, Nifty has somehow taken a beautiful support at our earlier stated support level of 19300. Which is why, we are still quite optimistic for the psychological figure of 20000 once again, in the upcoming days, with a major resistance of 19800 as of now.
Furthermore, before 19800, we have to wait for the level of 19550 on closing basis, for at least 2 consecutive days, in order to get a clear cut indication regarding a further upside.
Meanwhile, we have to stay a little cautious with the stop loss of 19300 in the upcoming days.
Overall, it is better to be stock specific and to keep rebalancing your portfolio for now, since the Result Season is going on.
Regards,
Alok Daiya
SEBI Registered Research Analyst
Morning Mantra - 4th August 2023Dear All,
Yesterday we had seen the effect of the crucial support level of 19550. Where below this level, Nifty took a sharp dip towards our previous support level of 19300, and from 19300 we had also observe a sharp recovery of around 100 points in Nifty, yesterday itself.
Finally yesterday we did somehow witness a major impact of the shooting star formation, which was observed on a weekly chart of Nifty.
So, with Nifty’s pull back around our support level, the range of 19550-19300 now becomes activated.
Therefore, be cautious today and keep following the Cherry Picking strategy , for now. Moreover, if you had already been Rebalancing your Portfolio, then this is an ideal time to infuse back the capital, little by little.
Regards,
Alok Daiya
SEBI Registered Research Analyst
Nifty will break rising channel or support from the channel ?Hope all are doing great.
Here’s my 1D timeframe analysis. As we can see in the chart from 18-Nov-2022 to 5-Apr-2023 around 138 days there was a good falling channel pattern. It broke and achieved 3 times the target.
The next 138 days from the previous breakout is forming beautiful rising channel pattern. As per the pattern nature it might break below to the given support level 19118. Expecting to touch that support level on or before 22-Aug-2023.
I also shared similar analysis for banknifty giving reference below.
Always trade carefully with proper SL because it’s your hard earned money.
Please note this is just my observation and purely for educational purposes only. Consult with your financial advisor before taking any trade.
Morning Mantra - 3rd August 2023Dear All,
So Finally we had witnessed a breakdown of 19550 in Nifty.
But, since it is a very minute closing of below 19550, therefore we have to wait for 1 more day for Nifty to decide its move.
Furthermore, on observing a hammer formation on the Day chart of Nifty, we are now expecting to witness a little selling pressure in the first half and then a little positive momentum in the later half, Today .
Apart from all this, it is better to keep patience for another day and let Nifty decide its next move.
In the meanwhile, we hope that you had already booked profits , as we have been repeatedly suggesting about Rebalancing your Portfolio.
Also, it is a good time to keep following the Cherry Picking strategy, however, avoid going for over exposure.
Keep Investing!
Keep Trading!
Regards ,
Alok Daiya
SEBI Registered Research Analyst
Nifty trade Setup for 02-08-2023Nifty important intraday levels to watch for 02-07-2023
#Support: 19710
Short if candle closes below 19710
#resistance: 19765
Long if candle closes above 19765
#Targets on downside after break of support.
Target 1= 19630
Target 2= 19560
#Targets on upside after break of resistance.
Target 1= 19820
Target 2= 19865
Remember each level will act as a support and resistance individually so there is a probability of reversal on either side. Please do your own research before initiating any trade. Always keep stoploss in order to protect your capital.
Follow us for more such information and educational ideas. Give it a like if you appreciate the idea.
Queries will be answered in comment section.
Morning Mantra - 2nd August 2023Dear All,
It was indeed quite a choppy day yesterday. Where somehow the unfortunate thing is that it has been for back to back 2 days that Nifty is failing to cross over the level of 19800.
Although, on the other hand, Nifty is currently above 19550 and just as we had stated earlier, it seems that Nifty is creating a platform for another new high.
So, once again with the stop loss of 19550, keep rebalancing your portfolio and keep following the Cherry Picking Strategy for now for the magical and psychological figure of 20000.
Happy Trading!
Keep Investing!
Regards ,
Alok Daiya
SEBI Registered Research Analyst
Morning Mantra - 1st August 2023Dear All,
Just as we had stated yesterday that after observing the formation of a Doji pattern on the Day chart, we are expecting a bounce back in Nifty. Likewise, we did experience the same yesterday itself.
Another positive factor here is that we can now observe the formation of a Hammer pattern on the chart of Nifty. So it is somehow indicating a further uprise in the Market, which altogether is being expected to be witnessed today itself.
So, once again we are with our words that above 19800 , we will be ready for our psychological figure of 20000.
Furthermore, in the meanwhile with the stop loss of 19550, continue Rebalancing your Portfolio and keep following the Cherry Picking Strategy for now.
Regards,
Alok Daiya
SEBI Registered Research Analyst
Morning Mantra - 31st July 2023Dear All,
Just as we had stated in the last week , about witnessing a supply pressure in Nifty as a result of observing a Shooting Star formation on the weekly chart. Likewise, the same was observed in the previous week itself.
Now for this week, as per the Day chart setup, we can observe a Doji formation on the chart. Which altogether indicates that in a very short term, we can get to witness a little bounce back in Nifty. However, on the other hand, as per the Weekly chart, there’s still an indication of a little supply pressure .
Although we had already stated about the necessity of witnessing either a breakout of 19800 or breakout of 19550 in Nifty. So, according to that Nifty took a beautiful support just around our stated level of 19550, as it made a low of 19563 on the last Friday.
Therefore, on this positive note we are still with our words that the overall market sentiments still seem to be positive. So, with the stop loss of 19550, continue rebalancing your portfolio and keep following the Cherry picking strategy, for now.
Regards,
Alok Daiya
SEBI Registered Research Analyst
Morning Mantra - 28th July 2023Dear All,
Just as we had stated yesterday, about our expectation of witnessing a selling pressure . Likewise the same was observed in the Market yesterday itself.
Moreover, yesterday Nifty made a low of 19603, which was somehow very near to our stated support level of 19550 (with a difference of only 50 points approx).
Furthermore, since today is the last trading of the week, therefore we have to be quite cautious. As once again, there’s a probability of witnessing some supply pressure in the Market.
Last but not the least, as of now it will be very important for us to witness a closing of above 19550 in Nifty.
Regards ,
Alok Daiya
SEBI Registered Research Analyst
Morning Mantra - 27th July 2023Dear All,
Just as we had stated yesterday about witnessing a bounce back in Nifty. Likewise the same was observed in the Market, yesterday itself.
So as per the current scenario, Nifty somehow seems to be creating a platform in between the levels of 19800-19550.
Therefore, in such a situation we have to be stock specific and have to keep rebalancing our portfolio. Moreover, since today is the day of weekly settlement, therefore we have also to be cautious for the day.
In the meanwhile, with the stop loss of 19550 , we can continue following the Cherry Picking strategy for now.
Regards,
Alok Daiya
SEBI Registered Research Analyst
Morning Mantra - 26th July 2023Dear All,
From back to back 2 days, we have been witnessing a supply pressure in Nifty.
Where on the other hand, we have also been witnessing a stock specific momentum in the Market.
Well on the day chart of Nifty, we can now observe a beautiful hammer formation . So, here we are expecting to witness a bounce back in Nifty, Today .
Furthermore, it is being expected that as of now Nifty will continue to make a platform in between its range of 19800-19550.
So, for now with the stop loss of 19550, continue Rebalancing your Portfolio and keep following the Cherry Picking Strategy.
Regards,
Alok Daiya
SEBI Registered Research Analyst
Morning Mantra - 25th July 2023Dear All,
Just as we had stated yesterday about witnessing a supply pressure from the current levels as a result of the shooting star formation on the weekly chart of Nifty. Likewise the very same was observed in the Market yesterday itself.
For now, the level of 19550 will remain to be the level of support for Nifty. With which, we can continue following the Cherry Picking strategy and Rebalancing of the Portfolio.
Furthermore, now an either side movement of a fresh breakout of above 20000 or a breakdown of 19550 will decide the next move of Nifty.
Till then, Keep Trading, Keep Investing!
Regards,
Alok Daiya
SEBI Registered Research Analyst
Morning Mantra - 24th July 2023Dear All,
Just as we had stated in our last Morning Mantra update on Friday, that since the Index had almost achieved its psychological target of 20000, therefore a little profit booking is expected to be witnessed at the current levels. Likewise, the very same was observed on Friday itself, since after showing a Gap Down opening, we got to see a substantial selling pressure in Nifty.
Well, now we can observe the formation of a Shooting Star pattern on the weekly chart of Nifty. So, a little more supply pressure can be witnessed here from the current levels.
Furthermore, the level of 19550 which earlier was a level of Resistance, will now work as a level of support for the Market.
Besides, since the overall market sentiments is still positive with the stop loss of 19550 . Therefore, can keep following the Cherry picking strategy and can continue Rebalancing your Portfolio, as of now.
Regards,
Alok Daiya
SEBI Registered Research Analyst
Morning Mantra - 21st July 2023Dear All,
Finally yesterday, Nifty had almost achieved its target level of 20000, as it was just missed by 10 points.
As of now the concern is that we are on the top, so here once again cautiousness will be the important tool.
Moreover, since today is the last trading day of the week, so it will be suggested to be stock specific and to keep rebalancing your portfolio.
Furthermore, since the Market is now trading in a new territory, so it is somehow very difficult to predict the next move of Nifty. But since, the Index has almost reached its psychological target of 20000, therefore a little profit booking can be witnessed here at the current levels. So, be cautious.
Regards,
Alok Daiya
SEBI Registered Research Analyst