NIFTY MATHEMATICAL LEVELS FOR THIS WEEKThese Levels are based on purely mathematical calculations.
Validity of levels are upto expiry of current week.
How to use these levels :-
* Mark these levels on your chart.
* Safe players Can use 15 min Time Frame
* Risky Traders Can use 5 min. Time Frame
* When Candle give Breakout / Breakdown to any level we have to enter with High/Low of that breaking candle.
* Targets will be another level marked on chart
* Stop Loss will be Low/High of that Breaking Candle.
* Trail your SL with every candle.
* Avoid Big Candles as SL will be high then.
* This is one of the Best Risk Reward Setup.
For Educational purpose only
Niftytrend
Where the Nifty 50 index might head in the next few days?Technical Analysis: The chart indicates that Nifty is currently near the 25,000 mark, with key Fibonacci retracement levels acting as resistance and support zones. A notable resistance is at the 0.382 level around 25,277, while the 0.618 level near 25,653 might be another hurdle if the index manages a short-term rally. Given the recent bearish momentum, a further drop could test the 24,900 level, especially if the index fails to break above the 25,277 resistance.
Outlook: Given the technical setup and the current FII-DII dynamics, the Nifty could remain under pressure if FII selling continues. Traders should watch the support at 24,900 closely, as a break below this level could signal further downside. Conversely, if the Nifty can hold above 25,000 and gain momentum past 25,277, it may target the 25,653 level as the next resistance.
The outlook is cautious, with a bias towards a bearish trend unless there's a reversal in FII sentiment or a strong technical breakout above key resistance levels
Nifty Intraday Support & Resistance Levels for 11.10.2024On Thursday, Nifty opened with a gap up, reaching a high of 25,134.05 before pulling back to a low of 24,979.40 in the final 30 minutes of trading. It closed slightly higher at 24,998.45, gaining 16 points from the previous session. The Weekly Trend (50 SMA) remains positive, while the Daily Trend (50 SMA) is sideways. Support and resistance zones remain unchanged from the last post.
Demand/Support Zones:
Near Demand/Support Zone (Daily): 24,753.15 - 25,130.50 (current price inside the zone)
Far Demand/Support Zone (Daily): 24,522.95 - 24,636.35
Far Demand/Support Zone (Daily): 24,099.70 - 24,196.50
Far Demand/Support Zone (Weekly): 23,893.70 - 24,419.75
Supply/Resistance Zones:
Near Supply/Resistance Zone (15m): 25,195.85 - 25,234.05
Far Supply/Resistance Zone (15m): 25,420 - 25,485.05
Near Supply/Resistance Zone (Daily): 25,739.20 - 25,907.60
Far Supply/Resistance Zone (Daily): 26,151.40 - 26,277.35
#nifty directions and levels for October 10th.Good morning, friends! 🌞 Here are the market directions and levels for October 10th.
Market Overview:
The global market is displaying bullish sentiment, while our local market shows a moderately bearish trend. A gap-up opening is anticipated today, with SGX Nifty indicating an increase of approximately +110 points as of 8 AM.
In the last session, we saw a lot of movement due to the RBI policy. The market is still somewhat weak overall, but the Gift Nifty is showing a positive start with around +100 points gap-up. This is because of global factors, like the Dow Jones going up strongly after the FOMC minutes. Gift Nifty also reacted to this.
What should we do with this sentiment? We should wait for a breakout in a certain range. If the market breaks this range, we can follow that direction because of the mixed local and global factors. I'll explain this more clearly in the charts.
Nifty and Bank Nifty have similar chart patterns.
Nifty Current View:
The current view suggests that if the gap-up doesn't sustain or the market rejects near the immediate resistance level of 25,173, then the correction may likely continue with a minimum downside of 78%. However, one additional confirmation is needed: after rejection, the market should break the lower trendline or the previous day's closing candle.
Alternate View:
The alternate view suggests that if the gap-up sustains, the market may consolidate around the 25,173 level. After consolidation, if this level is broken, we can expect the pullback to continue, targeting a minimum upside level of 25,272 to 78%.
Nifty Intraday Support & Resistance Levels for 10.10.2024On Wednesday, Nifty opened gap up, briefly crossed the Daily Demand zone (above 25,130.50) and reached a high of 25,234.05. However, it couldn't sustain the momentum and dropped to a new day low of 24,947.70, finally closing at 24,981.95, losing 31 points from the previous close. Keep a close watch on the key support level at 61.8% FIBO (24,804.25). The Weekly Trend (50 SMA) is still positive, while the Daily Trend (50 SMA) remains sideways.
Demand/Support Zones:
Near Demand/Support zone (Daily): 24,753.15 - 25,130.50 (current price inside the zone)
Far Demand/Support zone (Daily): 24,522.95 - 24,636.35
Far Demand/Support zone (Daily): 24,099.70 - 24,196.50
Far Demand/Support zone (Weekly): 23,893.70 - 24,419.75
Supply/Resistance Zones:
Near Supply/Resistance Zone (15m): 25,420 - 25,485.05
Near Supply/Resistance Zone (Daily): 25,739.20 - 25,907.60
Far Supply/Resistance Zone (Daily): 26,151.40 - 26,277.35
Nifty weekly expiry analysis for 10/10/2024Market has given a nice movement and for two days it remained in a range but is volatile.
There are chance of market either follow the bearish trend or form a 'W' pattern.
Nifty has closed around crucial levels from where it can either reverse the trend or continue falling.
Major support level :- 24760, 24600
Resistance level :- 25210, 25480
The weekly expiry can show a trending move after a break out or break down.
Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
#nifty directions and levels for October 9th."Good morning, friends! 🌞 Here are the market directions and levels for October 9th.
Market Overview:
The global market is still maintaining a moderately bullish sentiment, while our local market shows a moderately bearish trend. A neutral to gap-up opening is expected today, with SGX Nifty indicating a positive move of around +20 points as of 8 AM.
Today, we have a major event: the RBI monetary policy announcement. This means the market is likely to move based on this data, which will be released around 10 AM. Therefore, technical analysis may not play a significant role today.
However, structurally, both the Nifty and Bank Nifty remain in a bearish bias since they haven't broken the 38% Fibonacci level in the overall correction. So, if the market rejects the key resistance level, we can expect the correction to continue."
Nifty Intraday Support & Resistance Levels for 09.10.2024On Tuesday, Nifty opened with a gap up, as expected, finding support near the 61.8% FIBO level (24,804.25). It made a high of 25,044 and closed at 25,013.15, gaining 217 points from the previous session. If Nifty breaks and sustains above 25,143, we might see a bullish rally that could extend to 25,420 or even 25,739. The Weekly Trend (50 SMA) remains positive, while the Daily Trend (50 SMA) is sideways.
Demand/Support Zones:
Near Demand/Support zone (Daily): 24,753.15 - 25,130.50 (current price inside the zone)
Far Demand/Support zone (Daily): 24,522.95 - 24,636.35
Far Demand/Support zone (Daily): 24,099.70 - 24,196.50
Far Demand/Support zone (Weekly): 23,893.70 - 24,419.75
Supply/Resistance Zones:
Near Supply/Resistance Zone (15m): 25,420 - 25,485.05
Near Supply/Resistance Zone (Daily): 25,739.20 - 25,907.60
Far Supply/Resistance Zone (Daily): 26,151.40 - 26,277.35
Keep an eye on 25,143—if this level is broken, the rally could gather steam!
Nifty Intraday Support & Resistance Levels for 08.10.2024On Monday, Nifty opened with a gap up and touched a high of 25,143, but the momentum couldn’t hold. It fell sharply, dropping 449 points from the top and hitting a low of 24,694.35. Nifty eventually closed at 24,795.75, losing 218 points from the previous session. Despite briefly breaking below the key support of 24,753, it managed to close above it. If Nifty breaks this level again, we could see further declines toward 24,636 or even 24,420. However, Nifty is also near the 61.8% Fibonacci level (24,804.25), so if it holds above 24,753, we may see a short-term bounce. The Weekly Trend (50 SMA) remains positive, while the Daily Trend (50 SMA) has turned sideways.
Demand/Support Zones:
Near Demand/Support Zone (Daily): 24,753.15 - 25,130.50 (current price inside the zone)
Far Demand/Support Zone (Daily): 24,522.95 - 24,636.35
Far Demand/Support Zone (Daily): 24,099.70 - 24,196.50
Far Demand/Support Zone (Weekly): 23,893.70 - 24,419.75
Supply/Resistance Zones:
Near Supply/Resistance Zone (15m): 25,420 - 25,485.05
Near Supply/Resistance Zone (Daily): 25,739.20 - 25,907.60
Far Supply/Resistance Zone (Daily): 26,151.40 - 26,277.35
Stay cautious as we approach these critical levels!
Nifty 50 Reversal: Critical Levels and Sign of a Possible ReboudThe Nifty 50 index has been showing signs of weakness recently, as indicated by the red candle formations and the current price trending below crucial Fibonacci retracement levels. As of today, Nifty has been testing the support zones near the 0.618 Fibonacci level (24,402.75), which could serve as a pivot for a potential reversal. Let's dive into the factors suggesting a possible market bounce from here.
Technical Overview
1. Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
The price has pulled back from the recent highs around 26,272.50 and is hovering near the 0.618 retracement level at 24,402.75. A break below this level could lead the index toward the next key level at 23,893.70, the 100% retracement mark.
On the upside, if the price manages to hold the 0.618 level, the next resistance would be the 0.5 level at 25,083.10.
2. Moving Averages:
The 200-day moving average is still trending upward, signaling long-term bullish momentum. However, the 50-day moving average is flattening, indicating indecision in the medium term.
The current price is hovering between the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, suggesting that the upcoming price action could be critical in determining the next major move.
3. MACD Analysis:
The MACD histogram has turned negative, and the MACD line is crossing below the signal line. This is typically a bearish signal, but it’s worth noting that we are nearing oversold conditions, and a bullish crossover could be on the horizon if buyers step in at these key support levels.
4. RSI Divergence:
The RSI is currently around the 36.77 level, nearing oversold territory. Historically, RSI readings below 40 in this range have often preceded significant rebounds in Nifty 50.
Watch for bullish divergence as the RSI nears this key level, as it may indicate that downward momentum is weakening and that buyers could soon gain control.
Institutional Flows
Recent data suggests that Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have been net sellers of Indian equities, particularly with large sell-offs in the cash segment amounting to ₹-8,293.41 crores on October 7, 2024. However, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) have stepped in with a net purchase of ₹13,245.12 crores. This balance between FII selling and DII buying has helped stabilize the market, but FII futures purchases have added some positive momentum.
Key Takeaways:
Support Zone: The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (24,402.75) is a critical support. A strong bounce from this zone could lead to a reversal.
Indicators: Oversold RSI levels suggest that the selling momentum is overextended, and we could see a shift in market sentiment.
Institutional Activity: DII buying is providing much-needed support to the market, and FII futures activity shows some signs of optimism.
Conclusion:
Traders should watch for signs of a reversal, especially if the price holds above the 24,400 zone. Confirmation will come from a break above the 25,083 level, which would signify a change in short-term trend dynamics. A failure to hold current levels, however, could lead the index to test the 23,893 mark.
Navigating the Bullish Surge: A Cautious Approach to InvestingThe Indian markets are experiencing an extraordinary rally, with major indices soaring to unprecedented heights. This surge is undoubtedly enticing for retail traders and investors eager to capitalize on the momentum. However, the pressing question remains: Are these elevated levels truly the right time to enter the market? Perhaps not.
To gain insight, we can turn to a diagram by Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue that illustrates the typical stages of a market bubble. When we overlay this framework onto the current landscape of Indian indices, it becomes apparent that we may be on the brink of significant market movement—potentially in the coming weeks.
History has shown us that markets can swing from euphoric bullishness to sharp corrections. Notable examples include the catastrophic crash of 2008 and the rapid declines during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. While we may not face declines as drastic as those events, it’s essential for retail traders to be proactive in safeguarding their investments.
One effective strategy to mitigate downside risk is to consider purchasing long dated put option. A put option provides the holder with the right to sell the underlying asset without the obligation to do so. This means that if the market experiences a downturn—whether in the immediate future or after a few weeks or months—the put option can yield significant profits during a substantial decline. On the flip side, if the market continues its upward trajectory, the put option will gradually lose value and may eventually become worthless as indices continue to set new records.
The key takeaway here is to keep your investment strategy straightforward and avoid unnecessary complexity. This is merely one of many strategies available for investors looking to protect their portfolios.
Final Thoughts: As we navigate these exciting yet unpredictable market conditions, it’s crucial to remain vigilant and informed. While the allure of all-time highs is compelling, prudent risk management is essential for long-term success in investing.
Disclaimer: All investments carry inherent market risks. This article is not a recommendation; please conduct your own analysis before making any trading or investment decisions.
India Inc Quarterly Earnings and Nifty Corelation We all know that our beloved NSE:NIFTY has shy of 1500 points in short time, falling from a cliff. Naturally people are eager to guess if the holy grail Bottom is there, or it will test the 4th of June Election Result Day low at least.
Being a price action student, it's always good to look at the history and try to take a leaf out from it. Specifically, when I can recall what happened one year back in October 2023 where there were substantial FII selloffs before Q2 results (of FY 23-24). Of course there is a slight difference in the situation. Last year the moonsoon was not that good, this year above normal.
So I took all the last 4 quarterly result and see what happened around these times in Daily timeframe.
As it's evident:
In 26/10/23 (Q2 results midway) there were a dip to 18850 level when RSI was at oversold region.
Within next two months, the Nifty gave ~15% return.
Again during 24th Jan'24 (Q3 results midway) there is a dip and then Nifty quickly recovered.
Again during 19/04/24 (Q4/annual results midway), there is a dip and then again smart recovery.
The things become even more interesting if we check the RSI beyond this point (last 6 months). Here are the obervations:
19th April'24, 9th May'24, 4th June'24, 5th Aug'24 - the RSI was at 40 level.
Price were more or less around same/similar level. (Except Aug when Nifty was at 24000).
Now the Nifty RSI was at 36. But the price is at 24800.
It's indices Hidden Bullish Divergence
My Expectation:
There can be a little more dip (lets say another 150-250 points, at max 24550).
Then Nifty starts recovering smartly and will try to reclaim the 25500 Resistance level.
We shall see what will happen next.
So essentially end of this week onwards expecting a 800/1000 points recovery, IMO.
Seems too optimistic? May be .. lets see.
Just sharing my personal views. End the day: Market is Supreme and Price Action is the King.
Reliance - The Elephant can Turn EverythingReliance has been in a impulse since March 2023 from lows of 1979.15 to 2630.95 was size of Wave 1 & it retrace exactly 0.618% in wave 2 as marked in chart.
Wave 3 starting from 2220.30 to 3024.90 was equal to Wave 1 in size or slightly bigger than wave 1 & Wave 4 did retrace exactly 0.382% as shown in chart.
Wave 5 is exactly inverse 1.618 of Wave 4 fall.
This entire Impulsive structure is a good example to study wave structure & understand fibonacci relations between Elliott waves & how a impulsive wave follows a trend channel.
So is the Fall Over ?
Ideally it has pulled back to previous degree Wave 4 which could be a good demand zone & A equals to C has also been achieved but daily positive close is first sign of bottom & we may see at least 3 Waves bounce or a new Impulse starting on upside & this could mean the Elephant could turn the market sentiment positive.
#Nifty directions and levels for the 2nd week of October.Good evening, friends! 🌞 Here are the market directions and levels for the 2nd week of October.
Global Outlook:
In the previous week, the global market closed where it started, indicating that the past two weeks have seen global markets in a range-bound market. Structurally, this is a moderately bullish trend, so we can expect the continuation of this range during the week. Once the range breaks, the trend is likely to continue. In the meantime, there are some important economic data releases this week, including FOMC minutes, Balance of Trade, Inflation Rate, Initial Jobless Claims, and PPI, so we should watch these closely.
Our Market:
Last week, both Nifty and Bank Nifty fell drastically due to F&O-related factors. Structurally, this indicates a clear bearish trend, but the RSI is suggesting a slight bounce back due to the occurrence of divergence. If this happens, we can expect a minimum of a 38% bounce back in the minor swing. We can discuss this in more detail in the charts. Additionally, we have a major event this week: the RBI Policy announcement.
Current View:
The current view based on the RSI data is as follows:
* The RSI divergence is likely to occur in the sub-wave 5. The structure suggests there is a 5th sub-wave forming. Once the market starts to bounce back, we can close the 5-wave structure in the 1st leg of the correction, leading into the 2nd leg.
* The ideal 2nd leg is a three-wave structure, which could take a minimum of 38% to 61% bounce back from the previous swing.
> In rare occasions, it could reach 78%. Structurally, it won’t go beyond this level; however, if it does, the overall trend will turn bullish.
* Once the three-wave structure (2nd leg) completes, the 3rd wave will begin. The 3rd wave is a correctional wave; if it rejects and cuts below the EMA20 line, we can assume that the downtrend may continue further. This is our first variation.
Alternate View:
* The alternate view suggests that if the week starts with a negative candle, it may evolve into a diagonal structure.
* A diagonal is a time adjustment pattern, so the correction could continue with some minor bounce backs.
* However, the diagonal also indicates a sub-wave of the 5th. Once the diagonal pattern breaks upwards, the previous sentiment will apply here as well, meaning we can expect a minimum of a 38% bounce back from the previous swing.
4th Oct 2024 - Nifty Slips 1130pts ~ 4.32%, stance bearishNifty Stance Bearish ️⬇️
What a dramatic week it has been, Nifty falls 1130pts ~ 4.32% after SEBI's new FnO rule changes go live. What spooked the markets? I guess the fear that liquidity may get sucked out post 20th November 2024. Or is it because China's stock market is going limit up?
The fall in our market was kind of different, usually the bear power lasts only 2 days after which the bulls will come in and rally the markets to new all time highs. Hope we get a bear run continuation for a while now, few of the stocks and the main indices in particular are overvalued. A retracement will shake off the greed and insanity.
Our stance has changed to bearish with the stop loss at 25247 above which we will go neutral.
Torrent PharmaAll important points are marked.
𝐃𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐥𝐚𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐫: 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐢𝐧 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐬𝐮𝐛𝐣𝐞𝐜𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐤𝐬, 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐝 𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐝𝐨𝐜𝐮𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬 𝐜𝐚𝐫𝐞𝐟𝐮𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐛𝐞𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠. 𝐒𝐭𝐨𝐜𝐤𝐬 𝐬𝐮𝐠𝐠𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐠𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐩 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐞𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞. 𝐖𝐞 𝐝𝐨𝐧𝐭 𝐦𝐚𝐤𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐟𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐬𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐞𝐝 𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐥𝐲 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐫𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐜𝐨𝐬𝐭.
Nifty Intraday Support & Resistance Levels for 07.10.2024On Friday, Nifty opened gap down but managed a brief recovery, hitting a high of 25,485.05 before facing resistance at the 15-minute Supply Zone mentioned in the previous post. The index then reversed sharply, dropping 500 points from the day’s high to a low of 24,966.80. It closed at 25,014.60, losing 235 points from the previous session.
Currently, Nifty is trading within the Daily Demand Zone (24,753.15 - 25,130.50). If this support holds, we might see a bounce in the coming days, potentially reaching the Daily Supply Zone near 25,739. However, if the demand zone is broken below 24,753, the index could fall further, possibly reaching 24,636 or lower. The Weekly Trend (50 SMA) remains positive, while the Daily Trend (50 SMA) is sideways.
Demand/Support Zones:
Near Demand/Support Zone (Daily): 24,753.15 - 25,130.50 (current price inside the zone)
Far Demand/Support Zone (Daily): 24,522.95 - 24,636.35
Far Demand/Support Zone (Daily): 24,099.70 - 24,196.50
Supply/Resistance Zones:
Near Supply/Resistance Zone (Daily): 25,739.20 - 25,907.60
Far Supply/Resistance Zone (Daily): 26,151.40 - 26,277.35
Keep an eye on the key levels for potential reversals and opportunities!