Niftytrend
NIFTY50: INSTITUTIONAL LEVELS FOR 11/10/2024QUICK GUIDE
- Use 5 minute timeframe
- Try to take enters at retest
- Use multiple confirmation
- Read full description before investing
- Try to take ATM options or above
Explanation:
This is a very useful trading system. This means that you should not take a trade blindly, but rather that there is another confirmation to take the trade you can use this for perfect entry and perfect exit
This trading opportunity is based on volume, previous price, and price range , are included
Entry/Exit point's:
- It has very easy entry and exit points
- In this pair of lines with two colors are given (RED AND BLUE)
- In this the blue line is used to take long entry and the red line is used to take short entry (But it is all based on a more conformation from your trading plan)
Stop Loss/Take Profit:
Stop Loss
- According to this, if you take a long trade, its stop loss will be the red line just below ( A trade can exit either when the price crosses the red line or the 5 minute candlestick crosses the red line. (This can be done according to your preference) )
- A short entry should use the opposite rules to a long entry
Take Profit
-When you take a long entry according to the profit to be booked is on the next red line above. ( Or if there are other reasons, it can be a safe exit )
- Opposite rules for booking profit on long entry are to book profit on short trade. ( The blue line above is the stop loss of short entry )
Timeframe:
According to this, the time frame you should use while taking trades is 5 minutes time frames . (5 minute time frame works well in this)
Risk Disclaimer:
Trading carries significant risk and is not suitable for all traders. You may lose some or all of your capital in a matter of minutes or hours. Market conditions can change rapidly, and prices can move against you quickly. You may not always be able to exit at a favorable price, and you may be required to hold a position overnight, exposing yourself to additional risk. Day trading involves high risk, high leverage, and high stakes, and you should only trade with funds you can afford to lose. Please carefully consider your financial situation, risk tolerance, and trading objectives before engaging in day trading.
Engagement:
Share your insights, ask questions, and learn from others in the community. Whether you're a seasoned pro or just starting out, we're all in this together.
What's your take on the current market conditions? Which trading strategies are working for you? Let's discuss and help each other grow as traders!
Comment below and let's get the conversation started!
Original Content:
This trading setup is the result of my own innovation and expertise, and is not based on any publicly available information or third-party systems. It is a reflection of my dedication to developing a competitive edge in the markets.
Nifty in bear attack.. where is the bottom ?Nifty made all time high near 26277 and from there corrective wave (a) is in progress..
yesterday close at 24819 near golden fib ratio 0.618
Upside resistance 25225.. above this level only bulls will have stregnth.
Bulls need to defend POC (power of control) at 24290 & 24090 .. act as support levels
MACD still negative indicating sell on rise mode.
Disclaimer : I am not SEBI registered.
#nifty directions and levels for October 11th.Good morning, friends! 🌞 Here are the market directions and levels for October 11th.
Market Overview:
There have been no significant changes in the global or local markets. The global market is displaying a bullish sentiment, while our local market is showing a moderately bearish trend. A neutral to slightly gap-down opening is anticipated today, with SGX Nifty indicating a negative -20 points as of 8 AM.
In the previous session, Nifty consolidated while Bank Nifty saw a solid upward move; however, it closed near the previous day’s high. Structurally, both indices differ, but sentiment suggests that major movements are slowing down. so If the market opens neutral, it may consolidate between nearby support and resistance levels. After that, if a breakout occurs, we can follow the direction—whether to the upside or downside. This is our primary direction for today. Let’s take a closer look at the charts.
Nifty Current View:
If the market starts neutral or negative, it may find support around 24,924 to 24,900. If support is found, Nifty could consolidate between 24,924 and 25,001 on the upside. After this, if the range breaks, we can follow the direction, whether it’s to the upside or downside. This is our first variation.
Alternate View:
The alternate view suggests that if the market breaks or consolidates around the immediate support level (24,924), the correction may continue, reaching at least 78% to the downside.
NIFTY MATHEMATICAL LEVELS FOR THIS WEEKThese Levels are based on purely mathematical calculations.
Validity of levels are upto expiry of current week.
How to use these levels :-
* Mark these levels on your chart.
* Safe players Can use 15 min Time Frame
* Risky Traders Can use 5 min. Time Frame
* When Candle give Breakout / Breakdown to any level we have to enter with High/Low of that breaking candle.
* Targets will be another level marked on chart
* Stop Loss will be Low/High of that Breaking Candle.
* Trail your SL with every candle.
* Avoid Big Candles as SL will be high then.
* This is one of the Best Risk Reward Setup.
For Educational purpose only
Where the Nifty 50 index might head in the next few days?Technical Analysis: The chart indicates that Nifty is currently near the 25,000 mark, with key Fibonacci retracement levels acting as resistance and support zones. A notable resistance is at the 0.382 level around 25,277, while the 0.618 level near 25,653 might be another hurdle if the index manages a short-term rally. Given the recent bearish momentum, a further drop could test the 24,900 level, especially if the index fails to break above the 25,277 resistance.
Outlook: Given the technical setup and the current FII-DII dynamics, the Nifty could remain under pressure if FII selling continues. Traders should watch the support at 24,900 closely, as a break below this level could signal further downside. Conversely, if the Nifty can hold above 25,000 and gain momentum past 25,277, it may target the 25,653 level as the next resistance.
The outlook is cautious, with a bias towards a bearish trend unless there's a reversal in FII sentiment or a strong technical breakout above key resistance levels
Nifty Intraday Support & Resistance Levels for 11.10.2024On Thursday, Nifty opened with a gap up, reaching a high of 25,134.05 before pulling back to a low of 24,979.40 in the final 30 minutes of trading. It closed slightly higher at 24,998.45, gaining 16 points from the previous session. The Weekly Trend (50 SMA) remains positive, while the Daily Trend (50 SMA) is sideways. Support and resistance zones remain unchanged from the last post.
Demand/Support Zones:
Near Demand/Support Zone (Daily): 24,753.15 - 25,130.50 (current price inside the zone)
Far Demand/Support Zone (Daily): 24,522.95 - 24,636.35
Far Demand/Support Zone (Daily): 24,099.70 - 24,196.50
Far Demand/Support Zone (Weekly): 23,893.70 - 24,419.75
Supply/Resistance Zones:
Near Supply/Resistance Zone (15m): 25,195.85 - 25,234.05
Far Supply/Resistance Zone (15m): 25,420 - 25,485.05
Near Supply/Resistance Zone (Daily): 25,739.20 - 25,907.60
Far Supply/Resistance Zone (Daily): 26,151.40 - 26,277.35
#nifty directions and levels for October 10th.Good morning, friends! 🌞 Here are the market directions and levels for October 10th.
Market Overview:
The global market is displaying bullish sentiment, while our local market shows a moderately bearish trend. A gap-up opening is anticipated today, with SGX Nifty indicating an increase of approximately +110 points as of 8 AM.
In the last session, we saw a lot of movement due to the RBI policy. The market is still somewhat weak overall, but the Gift Nifty is showing a positive start with around +100 points gap-up. This is because of global factors, like the Dow Jones going up strongly after the FOMC minutes. Gift Nifty also reacted to this.
What should we do with this sentiment? We should wait for a breakout in a certain range. If the market breaks this range, we can follow that direction because of the mixed local and global factors. I'll explain this more clearly in the charts.
Nifty and Bank Nifty have similar chart patterns.
Nifty Current View:
The current view suggests that if the gap-up doesn't sustain or the market rejects near the immediate resistance level of 25,173, then the correction may likely continue with a minimum downside of 78%. However, one additional confirmation is needed: after rejection, the market should break the lower trendline or the previous day's closing candle.
Alternate View:
The alternate view suggests that if the gap-up sustains, the market may consolidate around the 25,173 level. After consolidation, if this level is broken, we can expect the pullback to continue, targeting a minimum upside level of 25,272 to 78%.
Nifty Intraday Support & Resistance Levels for 10.10.2024On Wednesday, Nifty opened gap up, briefly crossed the Daily Demand zone (above 25,130.50) and reached a high of 25,234.05. However, it couldn't sustain the momentum and dropped to a new day low of 24,947.70, finally closing at 24,981.95, losing 31 points from the previous close. Keep a close watch on the key support level at 61.8% FIBO (24,804.25). The Weekly Trend (50 SMA) is still positive, while the Daily Trend (50 SMA) remains sideways.
Demand/Support Zones:
Near Demand/Support zone (Daily): 24,753.15 - 25,130.50 (current price inside the zone)
Far Demand/Support zone (Daily): 24,522.95 - 24,636.35
Far Demand/Support zone (Daily): 24,099.70 - 24,196.50
Far Demand/Support zone (Weekly): 23,893.70 - 24,419.75
Supply/Resistance Zones:
Near Supply/Resistance Zone (15m): 25,420 - 25,485.05
Near Supply/Resistance Zone (Daily): 25,739.20 - 25,907.60
Far Supply/Resistance Zone (Daily): 26,151.40 - 26,277.35
Nifty weekly expiry analysis for 10/10/2024Market has given a nice movement and for two days it remained in a range but is volatile.
There are chance of market either follow the bearish trend or form a 'W' pattern.
Nifty has closed around crucial levels from where it can either reverse the trend or continue falling.
Major support level :- 24760, 24600
Resistance level :- 25210, 25480
The weekly expiry can show a trending move after a break out or break down.
Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
#nifty directions and levels for October 9th."Good morning, friends! 🌞 Here are the market directions and levels for October 9th.
Market Overview:
The global market is still maintaining a moderately bullish sentiment, while our local market shows a moderately bearish trend. A neutral to gap-up opening is expected today, with SGX Nifty indicating a positive move of around +20 points as of 8 AM.
Today, we have a major event: the RBI monetary policy announcement. This means the market is likely to move based on this data, which will be released around 10 AM. Therefore, technical analysis may not play a significant role today.
However, structurally, both the Nifty and Bank Nifty remain in a bearish bias since they haven't broken the 38% Fibonacci level in the overall correction. So, if the market rejects the key resistance level, we can expect the correction to continue."
Nifty Intraday Support & Resistance Levels for 09.10.2024On Tuesday, Nifty opened with a gap up, as expected, finding support near the 61.8% FIBO level (24,804.25). It made a high of 25,044 and closed at 25,013.15, gaining 217 points from the previous session. If Nifty breaks and sustains above 25,143, we might see a bullish rally that could extend to 25,420 or even 25,739. The Weekly Trend (50 SMA) remains positive, while the Daily Trend (50 SMA) is sideways.
Demand/Support Zones:
Near Demand/Support zone (Daily): 24,753.15 - 25,130.50 (current price inside the zone)
Far Demand/Support zone (Daily): 24,522.95 - 24,636.35
Far Demand/Support zone (Daily): 24,099.70 - 24,196.50
Far Demand/Support zone (Weekly): 23,893.70 - 24,419.75
Supply/Resistance Zones:
Near Supply/Resistance Zone (15m): 25,420 - 25,485.05
Near Supply/Resistance Zone (Daily): 25,739.20 - 25,907.60
Far Supply/Resistance Zone (Daily): 26,151.40 - 26,277.35
Keep an eye on 25,143—if this level is broken, the rally could gather steam!
Nifty Intraday Support & Resistance Levels for 08.10.2024On Monday, Nifty opened with a gap up and touched a high of 25,143, but the momentum couldn’t hold. It fell sharply, dropping 449 points from the top and hitting a low of 24,694.35. Nifty eventually closed at 24,795.75, losing 218 points from the previous session. Despite briefly breaking below the key support of 24,753, it managed to close above it. If Nifty breaks this level again, we could see further declines toward 24,636 or even 24,420. However, Nifty is also near the 61.8% Fibonacci level (24,804.25), so if it holds above 24,753, we may see a short-term bounce. The Weekly Trend (50 SMA) remains positive, while the Daily Trend (50 SMA) has turned sideways.
Demand/Support Zones:
Near Demand/Support Zone (Daily): 24,753.15 - 25,130.50 (current price inside the zone)
Far Demand/Support Zone (Daily): 24,522.95 - 24,636.35
Far Demand/Support Zone (Daily): 24,099.70 - 24,196.50
Far Demand/Support Zone (Weekly): 23,893.70 - 24,419.75
Supply/Resistance Zones:
Near Supply/Resistance Zone (15m): 25,420 - 25,485.05
Near Supply/Resistance Zone (Daily): 25,739.20 - 25,907.60
Far Supply/Resistance Zone (Daily): 26,151.40 - 26,277.35
Stay cautious as we approach these critical levels!
Nifty 50 Reversal: Critical Levels and Sign of a Possible ReboudThe Nifty 50 index has been showing signs of weakness recently, as indicated by the red candle formations and the current price trending below crucial Fibonacci retracement levels. As of today, Nifty has been testing the support zones near the 0.618 Fibonacci level (24,402.75), which could serve as a pivot for a potential reversal. Let's dive into the factors suggesting a possible market bounce from here.
Technical Overview
1. Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
The price has pulled back from the recent highs around 26,272.50 and is hovering near the 0.618 retracement level at 24,402.75. A break below this level could lead the index toward the next key level at 23,893.70, the 100% retracement mark.
On the upside, if the price manages to hold the 0.618 level, the next resistance would be the 0.5 level at 25,083.10.
2. Moving Averages:
The 200-day moving average is still trending upward, signaling long-term bullish momentum. However, the 50-day moving average is flattening, indicating indecision in the medium term.
The current price is hovering between the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, suggesting that the upcoming price action could be critical in determining the next major move.
3. MACD Analysis:
The MACD histogram has turned negative, and the MACD line is crossing below the signal line. This is typically a bearish signal, but it’s worth noting that we are nearing oversold conditions, and a bullish crossover could be on the horizon if buyers step in at these key support levels.
4. RSI Divergence:
The RSI is currently around the 36.77 level, nearing oversold territory. Historically, RSI readings below 40 in this range have often preceded significant rebounds in Nifty 50.
Watch for bullish divergence as the RSI nears this key level, as it may indicate that downward momentum is weakening and that buyers could soon gain control.
Institutional Flows
Recent data suggests that Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have been net sellers of Indian equities, particularly with large sell-offs in the cash segment amounting to ₹-8,293.41 crores on October 7, 2024. However, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) have stepped in with a net purchase of ₹13,245.12 crores. This balance between FII selling and DII buying has helped stabilize the market, but FII futures purchases have added some positive momentum.
Key Takeaways:
Support Zone: The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (24,402.75) is a critical support. A strong bounce from this zone could lead to a reversal.
Indicators: Oversold RSI levels suggest that the selling momentum is overextended, and we could see a shift in market sentiment.
Institutional Activity: DII buying is providing much-needed support to the market, and FII futures activity shows some signs of optimism.
Conclusion:
Traders should watch for signs of a reversal, especially if the price holds above the 24,400 zone. Confirmation will come from a break above the 25,083 level, which would signify a change in short-term trend dynamics. A failure to hold current levels, however, could lead the index to test the 23,893 mark.
Navigating the Bullish Surge: A Cautious Approach to InvestingThe Indian markets are experiencing an extraordinary rally, with major indices soaring to unprecedented heights. This surge is undoubtedly enticing for retail traders and investors eager to capitalize on the momentum. However, the pressing question remains: Are these elevated levels truly the right time to enter the market? Perhaps not.
To gain insight, we can turn to a diagram by Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue that illustrates the typical stages of a market bubble. When we overlay this framework onto the current landscape of Indian indices, it becomes apparent that we may be on the brink of significant market movement—potentially in the coming weeks.
History has shown us that markets can swing from euphoric bullishness to sharp corrections. Notable examples include the catastrophic crash of 2008 and the rapid declines during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. While we may not face declines as drastic as those events, it’s essential for retail traders to be proactive in safeguarding their investments.
One effective strategy to mitigate downside risk is to consider purchasing long dated put option. A put option provides the holder with the right to sell the underlying asset without the obligation to do so. This means that if the market experiences a downturn—whether in the immediate future or after a few weeks or months—the put option can yield significant profits during a substantial decline. On the flip side, if the market continues its upward trajectory, the put option will gradually lose value and may eventually become worthless as indices continue to set new records.
The key takeaway here is to keep your investment strategy straightforward and avoid unnecessary complexity. This is merely one of many strategies available for investors looking to protect their portfolios.
Final Thoughts: As we navigate these exciting yet unpredictable market conditions, it’s crucial to remain vigilant and informed. While the allure of all-time highs is compelling, prudent risk management is essential for long-term success in investing.
Disclaimer: All investments carry inherent market risks. This article is not a recommendation; please conduct your own analysis before making any trading or investment decisions.
India Inc Quarterly Earnings and Nifty Corelation We all know that our beloved NSE:NIFTY has shy of 1500 points in short time, falling from a cliff. Naturally people are eager to guess if the holy grail Bottom is there, or it will test the 4th of June Election Result Day low at least.
Being a price action student, it's always good to look at the history and try to take a leaf out from it. Specifically, when I can recall what happened one year back in October 2023 where there were substantial FII selloffs before Q2 results (of FY 23-24). Of course there is a slight difference in the situation. Last year the moonsoon was not that good, this year above normal.
So I took all the last 4 quarterly result and see what happened around these times in Daily timeframe.
As it's evident:
In 26/10/23 (Q2 results midway) there were a dip to 18850 level when RSI was at oversold region.
Within next two months, the Nifty gave ~15% return.
Again during 24th Jan'24 (Q3 results midway) there is a dip and then Nifty quickly recovered.
Again during 19/04/24 (Q4/annual results midway), there is a dip and then again smart recovery.
The things become even more interesting if we check the RSI beyond this point (last 6 months). Here are the obervations:
19th April'24, 9th May'24, 4th June'24, 5th Aug'24 - the RSI was at 40 level.
Price were more or less around same/similar level. (Except Aug when Nifty was at 24000).
Now the Nifty RSI was at 36. But the price is at 24800.
It's indices Hidden Bullish Divergence
My Expectation:
There can be a little more dip (lets say another 150-250 points, at max 24550).
Then Nifty starts recovering smartly and will try to reclaim the 25500 Resistance level.
We shall see what will happen next.
So essentially end of this week onwards expecting a 800/1000 points recovery, IMO.
Seems too optimistic? May be .. lets see.
Just sharing my personal views. End the day: Market is Supreme and Price Action is the King.
Reliance - The Elephant can Turn EverythingReliance has been in a impulse since March 2023 from lows of 1979.15 to 2630.95 was size of Wave 1 & it retrace exactly 0.618% in wave 2 as marked in chart.
Wave 3 starting from 2220.30 to 3024.90 was equal to Wave 1 in size or slightly bigger than wave 1 & Wave 4 did retrace exactly 0.382% as shown in chart.
Wave 5 is exactly inverse 1.618 of Wave 4 fall.
This entire Impulsive structure is a good example to study wave structure & understand fibonacci relations between Elliott waves & how a impulsive wave follows a trend channel.
So is the Fall Over ?
Ideally it has pulled back to previous degree Wave 4 which could be a good demand zone & A equals to C has also been achieved but daily positive close is first sign of bottom & we may see at least 3 Waves bounce or a new Impulse starting on upside & this could mean the Elephant could turn the market sentiment positive.