Niftytrend
MARKET CRASHNSE:NIFTY TVC:DJI
US market 1929 vs 2024
Is it just coincidence or is history going to repeat itself ??
Great Depression, was a worldwide economic downturn that began in 1929 and lasted until about 1939. It was the longest and most severe depression ever experienced by the industrialized Western world, sparking fundamental changes in economic institutions, macroeconomic policy, and economic theory.
Similarities and differences between the microeconomic conditions during the start of the 1929 market crash and those in 2024.
Similarities
Credit Expansion and Financial Innovation:
1929: The 1920s saw significant credit expansion, with many Americans buying stocks on margin (borrowing money to buy stocks), leading to inflated stock prices.
2024: Similarly, the 2020s have seen rapid credit expansion globally, with innovations in financial products and increased borrowing, contributing to elevated asset prices1.
High Leverage:
1929: High leverage was prevalent, particularly in the stock market, where investors borrowed heavily to invest.
2024: High leverage is also a concern today, not just in stock markets but across various sectors, including real estate and corporate debt1.
Financial Sector Vulnerabilities:
1929: The financial sector was vulnerable due to speculative investments and lack of regulation, leading to bank failures.
2024: Today’s financial sector, while more regulated, still faces vulnerabilities from high leverage and interconnected global markets1.
Economic Contraction:
1929: The U.S. experienced a severe economic contraction, leading to the Great Depression.
2024: There are concerns about economic contraction due to various factors, including high inflation, geopolitical tensions, and slowing growth in major economies.
Differences
Policy Responses:
1929: The policy response was slow and inadequate. The Federal Reserve’s actions were limited, and there was a lack of coordinated fiscal policy.
2024: Today’s policy responses are much more proactive. Central banks and governments have implemented significant monetary and fiscal measures to stabilize economies.
Globalization:
1929: The global economy was less interconnected, with the U.S. being the primary driver of the economic downturn.
2024: The global economy is highly interconnected, meaning economic issues in one region can quickly spread to others. This interconnectedness also allows for coordinated policy responses.
Technological Advancements:
1929: Technological advancements were limited, affecting communication and the speed of economic activities.
2024: Technological advancements have transformed economies, enabling faster communication, better data analysis, and more efficient markets1.
Regulatory Environment:
1929: There was minimal regulation of financial markets, contributing to speculative bubbles and bank failures.
2024: The regulatory environment is much stricter, with measures in place to prevent excessive risk-taking and ensure financial stability.
Conclusion
While there are some striking similarities between the microeconomic conditions of 1929 and 2024, particularly in terms of credit expansion, high leverage, and financial sector vulnerabilities, the differences in policy responses, globalization, technological advancements, and regulatory environments are significant. These differences suggest that while there are risks, the tools available to manage economic downturns are more robust today.
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Trade Secrets By Pratik
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Disclaimer
NOT SEBI REGISTERED
This is our personal view and this analysis
is only for educational purposes
Please consult your advisor before
investing or trading
You are solely responsible for any decisions
you take on the basis of our research.
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Nifty Intraday Support & Resistance Levels for 05.08.2024On Friday, Nifty opened gap down, took support at the 15m demand zone mentioned in the previous post, and bounced up more than 100 points before closing at 24717.70 (293 points negative). The weekly trend (50 SMA) is overbought, and the daily trend (50 SMA) is positive.
Support Levels:
Near Demand/Support Zone (30m): 24624 - 24657
Major Demand/Support Zone (125m): 24296 - 24426
Resistance Levels:
Near Supply/Resistance Zone (125m): 24956 - 25031
Nifty for the week starting 5th august 2024.On Friday Nifty opened with a gap on the down side and ended the day in Red with no signs of Recovery.
In one and four hour time frame Nifty has broken the trendline and is bearish.
If Nifty closes below 24650 on Monday they we can assume that the down trend has begun.
For Monday 5/8/24
Buy above 24780 for a target of 24820 , 24850.
Sell below 24650 for a target of 24610, 24580
Nifty Intraday Levels | 1-AUG-2024#Optionbuyers
#Niftyoptionscalping
1️⃣ Zones you always Like:-
👉Green zone- Institutional support
👉Red zone - Institutional resistance
👉Gap between institutional zones is always of 100 points
👉Zone is created with the help of pivot points and Fibonacci
👉Advance version of price action
👉Trades based on Nifty future chart
2️⃣ Trade Execution:-
👉Trade based on order flow data
👉Timeframe - 1 min and 5 min
👉Risk Reward Ratio always 1:2
👉Strike price always ATM & slightly ITM
👉Maintain Position sizing according to your own method
3️⃣ House Rules in trading:-
👉Sharp at 9:15 AM
👉Priority to risk management
👉Fast execution (morning breakfast)
👉Stop-loss 10 points (strictly)
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#Nifty directions and levels for August 1stGood morning, friends! 🌺🍬 Here are the market directions for August 1st:
Global and Local Market Overview
In the previous session, the US market experienced a solid pullback, suggesting a moderately bullish bias. Our local market is also maintaining a moderately bullish trend. Today, the market may open with a neutral to slightly positive start, as GiftNifty is indicating a 40-point positive move.
In the previous session, both Nifty and BankNifty were in a range-bound market, but their structures differ. Let's take a closer look:
Nifty
Previously, we discussed that Nifty is in sub-wave 4. If it breaks the consolidation, we could expect the 5th impulse wave. This may happen in today’s session due to the gap-up start indicated by GiftNifty. If the market opens above the previous high, we can expect a move to a minimum of 25029 to 25067.
We have already discussed this sentiment in the previous session. If the breakout has a solid formation, the rally will continue. On the other hand, if it does not, it will turn into a correction. Today, we will follow the sentiment with a slight revision. that's
Current view:
>If the gap-up sustains and breaks or consolidates around the resistance level (25029-25067), the rally will likely continue.
>On the other hand, If it doesn’t sustain, it will either form an ending diagonal or continue the correction if it breaks the channel.
>The difference between the diagonal and channel breakout is that a diagonal indicates the bullish bias will continue with minor pullbacks, while a channel breakout suggests a clear reversal.
Alternate view:
The alternate scenario is similar to the diagonal pattern. If the gap-up doesn’t sustain, we can expect an initial correction of 38-78%. After that, if it finds support at either the channel bottom or the 78% Fibonacci level, the bullish bias will continue. Simply put, it’s a range market. If it breaks the 78% Fibonacci level, the correction will likely continue.
Nifty Intraday Support & Resistance Levels for 01.08.2024On Wednesday, Nifty made its third failed attempt to cross the 25000 mark but closed higher at 24951.15. The weekly trend (50 SMA) remains overbought, and the daily trend (50 SMA) is positive. The support and resistance levels remain the same as mentioned in the last post:
Support Levels:
Near Demand/Support Zone (15m): 24711 - 24734
Near Demand/Support Zone (30m): 24624 - 24657
Major Demand/Support Zone (125m): 24296 - 24426
Resistance Levels:
Near Supply/Resistance Zone (15m): 24974 - 25000 (tested yesterday)
Nifty Intraday Levels | 31-JULY-2024#Optionbuyers
#Niftyoptionscalping
1️⃣ Zones you always Like:-
👉Green zone- Institutional support
👉Red zone - Institutional resistance
👉Gap between institutional zones is always of 100 points
👉Zone is created with the help of pivot points and Fibonacci
👉Advance version of price action
👉Trades based on Nifty future chart
2️⃣ Trade Execution:-
👉Trade based on order flow data
👉Timeframe - 1 min and 5 min
👉Risk Reward Ratio always 1:2
👉Strike price always ATM & slightly ITM
👉Maintain Position sizing according to your own method
3️⃣ House Rules in trading:-
👉Sharp at 9:15 AM
👉Priority to risk management
👉Fast execution (morning breakfast)
👉Stop-loss 10 points (strictly)
#ThankU For Checking Out Our IDEA , We Hope U Liked IT 📌
🙏FOLLOW for more !
👍LIKE if useful !
✍️COMMENT Below your view !
#Nifty directions and levels for July 31st.Good morning, friends! 🌺🍬 Here are the market directions for July 31st:
Global and Local Market Overview
The global market is indicating a moderately bearish trend (based on the Dow Jones), while our local market indicates a moderately bullish trend. Today, the market may open with a neutral to slightly positive start because GiftNifty is indicating a 20-point positive move.
Still, the Nifty and BankNifty are maintaining a difference. Let's look at that.
Nifty:
In the previous session, Nifty had a pullback, but by the end of the day, it closed like a range market. As per the wave, it's in the 4th wave, which is a consolidation wave. If the market opens neutral, the range market will likely continue until it breaks the previous high. There are two variations for the upside breakout, considering it could be the 5th wave.
Current View:
If the market breaks with a solid pullback or solid candle formation, the 5th wave may extend, reaching a minimum of 25067 to 25143.
If the market doesn't have much volume or if it breaks the previous high with some rejection, we can expect a maximum of 25029 to 25067. Once the 5th wave completes, we can expect a correction. However, we should seek additional confirmation for the reversal. Use the Fibonacci retracement in the minor swing: if it breaks 38%, that's a sign of a minor reversal.
Alternate View:
The alternate view also considers a range market structure. If the market declines initially, it may take support around the Fibonacci level of 38%. If it finds support there, the range market will likely continue. The correction will occur only if it breaks the 38% level. If this happens, we can expect the next target to be 24646 to the Fibonacci level of 50%.
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels -31/07/2024Nifty will be gap up opening in today's session. After opening nifty sustain above 24860 level and then possible upside rally up to 24980 level in today's session. in case nifty trades below 24810 level then the downside target can go up to the 24690 level.
Nifty Intraday Support & Resistance Levels for 31.07.2024On Tuesday, Nifty made a high of 24971.75, just short of the 15m supply zone mentioned in the last post, and fell during the last 30 minutes of trading, closing at 24857.30. The weekly trend (50 SMA) is overbought, and the daily trend (50 SMA) remains positive. The support and resistance levels remain the same as mentioned in the last post:
Support Levels:
Near Demand/Support Zone (15m): 24711 - 24734
Near Demand/Support Zone (30m): 24624 - 24657
Major Demand/Support Zone (125m): 24296 - 24426
Resistance Levels:
Near Supply/Resistance Zone (15m): 24974 - 25000
Nifty Intraday Support & Resistance Levels for 30.07.2024On Monday, Nifty opened gap up and made a new all-time high of 24999.75, followed by a fall of over 200 points from the top before closing at 24836.10. The weekly trend (50 SMA) is overbought, and the daily trend (50 SMA) remains positive.
Support Levels:
Near Demand/Support Zone (15m): 24711 - 24734
Near Demand/Support Zone (30m): 24624 - 24657
Major Demand/Support Zone (125m): 24296 - 24426
Resistance Levels:
Near small Supply/Resistance Zone (15m): 24974 - 25000
Nifty Intraday Levels | 30-JULY-2024#Optionbuyers
#Niftyoptionscalping
1️⃣ Zones you always Like:-
👉Green zone- Institutional support
👉Red zone - Institutional resistance
👉Gap between institutional zones is always of 100 points
👉Zone is created with the help of pivot points and Fibonacci
👉Advance version of price action
👉Trades based on Nifty future chart
2️⃣ Trade Execution:-
👉Trade based on order flow data
👉Timeframe - 1 min and 5 min
👉Risk Reward Ratio always 1:2
👉Strike price always ATM & slightly ITM
👉Maintain Position sizing according to your own method
3️⃣ House Rules in trading:-
👉Sharp at 9:15 AM
👉Priority to risk management
👉Fast execution (morning breakfast)
👉Stop-loss 10 points (strictly)
#ThankU For Checking Out Our IDEA , We Hope U Liked IT 📌
🙏FOLLOW for more !
👍LIKE if useful !
✍️COMMENT Below your view !
#Nifty Direction's and levels for July 30th.Good morning, friends! 🌺🍬 Here are the market directions for July 30th:
Even though both global and local markets have experienced a correction structurally, it is a moderately bullish market. Today, the market may open with a gap-down start, as indicated by the GIFT Nifty, showing -80 points at 8:00 am.
Structurally, Nifty and Bank Nifty differ. Let's examine each one:
Nifty:
In the previous session, Nifty opened with a gap-up, but there was no continued rally, and it fell drastically mid-market. What's next?
> As per the weekly analysis, it could be in the 4th wave and has already reached the 23% Fibonacci level. If the market finds support around the 38% Fibonacci level today, we can initially expect it to range between the previous high and the 38% Fibonacci level. If it then breaks the previous high, the 5th wave may continue,
> with pullback targets expected to be a minimum of 61% to 78%, which is the usual range market target.
> The alternate view suggests that if the gap-down sustains and breaks the 38% Fibonacci level, it may turn into a correction. If this happens, we can expect a minimum target level of 50%. After that, if the market breaks this level with minor consolidation, the correction will likely continue. However, if it is sharply rejected, we may also expect a range market, but the probability is lower.
NIFTY Intraday Trade Setup For 30 Jul 2024NIFTY Intraday Trade Setup For 30 Jul 2024
Bullish-Above 25000
Invalid- Below 24950
T- 25250
Bearish-Below 24770
Invalid-Above 24820
T- 24535
NIFTY has closed on an absolute flat note after 2 way moves in intraday. It has formed a spinning top candle in daily TF exactly at 25K zone. This indicates a potential halt or reversal. Below 24770 index may reverse in short term however a closing in daily TF will confirm this. Also final confirmation of reversal will be when NIFTY will make a bearish price action in daily TF. 25k and 24770 are intraday levels for tomorrow.
Coming to Tuesday's trade setup, if index opens flat and a 15 Min candle closes above 25k then we will long for the target of 25250.
For selling we need a 15 Min candle close below 24770. T- 24535.
In case of a big gap up/down, wait till 10 o'clock and mark the high and low of the trading range (5MIN). Trade on this range breakout.
==========
I am Not SEBI Registered
This is my personal analysis for my personal trading. Kindly consult your financial advisor before taking any actions based on this.
Nifty50 Support And Resistance 30-July-24
Please find below simple resistance and support
This is only for education purpose. Do your own research before investing or trading.
I AM NOT SEBI REGISTERED ANALYST, SO BEFORE TAKING ANY DECISION CONSULT ANY PROFESSIONAL.
We Strictly Recommend You Not To Make Any Decisions, Financial, Investments, Trading, Or Otherwise.
Please Understand That Using This Information Would Be Totally At Your Own Risk.
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Without The Consultation Of Any Professional, We Strictly Recommend You Not To Make Any Decisions, Financial, Investments, Trading, Or Otherwise. Please Understand That Using This Information Would Be Totally At Your Own Risk.
Do Not Take Any Action Unless You Are Set Up To Continue An
'All Out Misfortune " or "Total Loss".
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Nifty50 (29th July) 2/224888---24911 NO TRADE ZONE
Hourly candle 🕯 closes above 24911 then could test 📈 25025
Closing below 24911 -- 24888 in hourly candle 📉 📉 could test support at 24650 (Fib gap pending )
Disclaimer:
It's a personal view not a financial advice and I assume no responsibility and liability whatever outcome arises.
Nifty50 (29th July)If hourly candle 🕯 closes above that white trend line or 24999 then could test above target 25095 or the trend line in red, if sustains that then could even push higher to 25172 or the blue trend line
If rejects or closing sustains below 24999 or the white line then could 📉 📉 to below price marked on the chart
Disclaimer:
It's a personal view not a financial advice and I assume no responsibility and liability whatever outcome arises.