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Niftytrendanalysis

Nifty 50's Top Constituents Stand Tall Amidst Uncertainty◉ Abstract The recent decline in the Nifty 50 index can be attributed to several interconnected factors affecting market sentiment. Geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict in the Middle East, have increased uncertainty and volatility among investors. Additionally, significant foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows, surpassing ₹1,00,000 crore in October 2024, reflect concerns over high valuations in Indian markets compared to more attractive options abroad. Weak earnings reports from Indian companies have further fueled investor anxiety, prompting reassessments of growth sustainability. Overall market sentiment has turned cautious due to uncertainties surrounding upcoming events like the US elections and ongoing geopolitical issues, leading to a broader sell-off. Technical analysis indicates potential support levels between 22,750 and 23,000, while valuation metrics suggest that despite recent declines, many key Nifty stocks remain fairly valued, with caution advised for new investments during this volatile period. Read full analysis . . . ◉ Introduction The recent fall in the Nifty 50 index can be attributed to several key factors that have affected market sentiment and investor behaviour. ● Geopolitical Tensions: The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, particularly the Iran-Israel war, has heightened global uncertainty. This geopolitical instability has led to fears among investors, contributing to market volatility and declines in stock prices ● Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) Outflows: There has been significant selling by foreign institutional investors, with outflows reaching above ₹1,00,000 crore in October 2024. This trend is partly driven by concerns over peak valuations in Indian markets compared to cheaper valuations in other markets, such as China ● Weak Earnings Reports: Recent quarterly earnings from Indian companies have shown weakness, raising concerns about the sustainability of growth. This has led to increased selling pressure as investors reassess their positions in light of disappointing financial performance ● Market Sentiment and Investor Jitters: Uncertainty surrounding upcoming events, such as the US elections and ongoing geopolitical tensions, has made investors cautious. This sentiment is reflected in the broader market sell-off and a lack of confidence in taking long positions during this volatile period ◉ Technical Analysis ● Weekly Chart ➖ The weekly chart indicates a strong upward trend, with the index consistently achieving higher highs and lows. ➖ However, a significant selling pressure from the peak has led to a sharp decline. We expect to find potential support in the range of 22,750 to 23,000. ● Daily Chart ➖ The index has broken through the neckline of the Head & Shoulders pattern. ➖ While there is immediate support around the 23,900 to 24,000 level, we believe the index may struggle to maintain this level and could drop further. ➖ Robust support is anticipated between 22,750 and 23,000. ◉ Valuation Analysis ➖ The Nifty PE Ratio has dropped to 22.5, slightly below its 1-year average of 22.6 and significantly lower than its 5-year average of 25.24. This suggests that the Nifty is currently fairly valued. ➖ However, the recent quarter's lacklustre EPS growth is a concern, exerting downward pressure on the major index. As the major index struggles, it's worth taking a closer look at the key Nifty constituents that carry substantial weightage. 1. HDFC Bank NSE:HDFCBANK Sector - Banking & Financial Services Weightage - 11.34% ● Technical Overview ➖ For nearly three years, the stock has been range-bound, exhibiting stability. ➖ Despite the broader market's downturn, it has shown no reaction, suggesting that its sideways movement is likely to continue. ● Valuation ➖ The stock currently trades at a PE ratio of 19.2, moderately above its 1-year median PE of 17.5. ➖ Notably, the company's earnings performance has shown improvement, with a quarter-over-quarter increase in EPS: June quarter: ₹21.65 September quarter: ₹23.36 2. Reliance Industries NSE:RELIANCE Sector - Oil & Gas Weightage - 8.64% ● Technical Overview ➖ Following a record peak near 3,200, the price retreated and is now approaching its key support level of 2,550. ● Valuation ➖ The current PE ratio of 26.5 indicates undervaluation relative to its 1-year median PE of 28.3. ➖ Earnings growth supports this positive valuation outlook: Current EPS: ₹24.48 Previous quarter EPS: ₹22.37 3. ICICI Bank NSE:ICICIBANK Sector - Banking & Financial Services Weightage - 7.74% ● Technical Overview ➖ The stock has maintained a strong uptrend, demonstrating remarkable resilience amidst recent market downturns. ➖ However, from a technical standpoint, a short-term pullback towards the 1,100 level cannot be ruled out. ● Valuation ➖ The present PE ratio of 18.7 suggests a minor overvaluation when compared to its 1-year median PE of 17.9. ➖ EPS improved significantly from ₹16.62 in June to ₹18.38 in September, indicating a positive trend in the company's financial performance. 4. Infosys NSE:INFY Sector - Information Technology Weightage - 5.83% ● Technical Overview ➖ The stock has successfully broken out of its Rounding Bottom pattern and is now consolidating above the breakout level. ● Valuation ➖ The present PE ratio of 28.7 suggests a minor overvaluation when compared to its 1-year median PE of 26.4. ➖ Earnings growth, although subdued, remains stable: June quarter: ₹15.34 September quarter: ₹15.67 5. ITC NSE:ITC Sector - FMCG Weightage - 4.16% ● Technical Overview ➖ The stock remains in a strong uptrend, consistently forming higher highs and lows. ➖ After reaching an all-time high of 528, the price has pulled back and is now testing its crucial support zone between 460-470. ● Valuation ➖ The present PE ratio of 29.4 suggests a minor overvaluation compared to its 1-year median PE of 27. ➖ Furthermore, the earnings per share (EPS) has declined from the previous quarter, falling from ₹4.08 in June to ₹3.99 in September. 6. Bharti Airtel NSE:BHARTIARTL Sector - Telecom Services Weightage - 3.95% ● Technical Overview ➖ The stock price has experienced a notable rise. ➖ After hitting an all-time high near the 1,780 level, it has corrected and is anticipated to find support along its trendline. ● Valuation ➖ The stock's current PE ratio of 83.5 significantly exceeds its 1-year median PE of 65.3, indicating substantial overvaluation. ➖ Ahead of the upcoming quarterly results, earnings execution is not expected to be robust, potentially leading to a sharp correction in the stock price. ◉ Conclusion Analysis of six pivotal Nifty 50 stocks reveals that, excluding Bharti Airtel, they are fairly valued. With a combined weightage of over 40%, these stocks underpin index stability Given this significant representation, we do not foresee a drastic decline in the index from either a technical or fundamental standpoint. However, the ongoing war may impact global sentiment, influencing market mood. Therefore, we advise caution when considering new buy positions.
NSE:NIFTY
by GoodluckCapital
Medium term trading opportunity in Finolex Ind for v. good upsidHi, NSE:FINPIPE has given a Bullish Flag Breakout on Weekly charts with very good volume. MACD is also on the bullish side on Weekly time frames. RSI is also on the bullish side on daily, weekly and monthly time frames. In the current market scenario, I am expecting that the bullish momentum will continue. Complete price projection like entry, stop loss and targets mentioned on the charts for educational purpose. Don't Forget to Follow me to get all the updates. Please share your feedback or any queries on the study. Disclaimer: Please consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
NSE:FINPIPELong
by raigvivek
Medium term trading opportunity in Tech Mahindra for > 15% upsidHi, NSE:TECHM has given a Bullish Flag Breakout on Weekly charts with very good volume. MACD is also on the bullish side on Weekly time frames. RSI is also on the bullish side on daily, weekly and monthly time frames. In the current market scenario, I am expecting that the bullish momentum will continue. Complete price projection like entry, stop loss and targets mentioned on the charts for educational purpose. Don't Forget to Follow me to get all the updates. Please share your feedback or any queries on the study. Disclaimer: Please consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
NSE:TECHMLong
by raigvivek
Medium term trading opportunity in Tata Power for huge upsideHi, NSE:TATAPOWER has given a Bullish Flag Breakout on Weekly charts with very good volume. MACD is also on the bullish side on Weekly time frames. RSI is also on the bullish side on daily, weekly and monthly time frames. In the current market scenario, I am expecting that the bullish momentum will continue. Complete price projection like entry, stop loss and targets mentioned on the charts for educational purpose. Don't Forget to Follow me to get all the updates. Please share your feedback or any queries on the study. Disclaimer: Please consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
NSE:TATAPOWERLong
by raigvivek
Nifty50 Crosses Head and Shoulder Pattern, Resistance at 23895Details: Asset: Nifty50 Index Breakout Level: Nifty50 crossed the head and shoulder pattern Current Level: 24472 Potential Resistance: 23895 Stop Loss: Based on risk tolerance or technical analysis Timeframe: Short-term, dependent on market sentiment and election outcomes Rationale: Nifty50 has broken through a head and shoulder pattern, a typically bearish indicator. The next significant resistance level appears at 23895. The market may see further downside unless positive developments, such as favorable election results, provide relief. Market Analysis: Bearish Pattern: The head and shoulder pattern indicates potential further downside. Nifty50 may continue to decline unless a reversal is triggered by positive news or market catalysts. Election Impact: Election results could play a crucial role in determining the market’s direction, especially in a sensitive period like this. Price Target: Resistance is likely at 23895. If Nifty50 fails to break this level, it may see continued bearish momentum. Risk Management: Adjust stop losses based on individual risk tolerance and technical analysis, especially given the uncertainty around political outcomes. Timeframe: The timeframe for reaching resistance at 23895 could be short-term, but broader market trends and election outcomes may impact the index's movement. Risk-Reward Ratio: The setup leans bearish, with the head and shoulder pattern indicating downside risk. Ensure stop-loss levels are adjusted for volatility. Monitoring the market's response to political and macroeconomic factors will be key for Nifty50's near-term outlook.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by CyborgTradingHub
#Nifty directions and levels for October 16th.Good morning, friends! 🌞 Here are the market directions and levels for October 16th. Market Overview: The global market is showing a moderately bearish sentiment, while our local market is following a similar trend. We anticipate a neutral to slightly gap-down opening today, with SGX Nifty indicating a negative start of -70 points as of 8 AM. In the previous session, Nifty saw a minor correction, but Bank Nifty maintained a moderately bullish sentiment. Structurally, Nifty is in a range-bound pattern, while Bank Nifty shows a slightly bullish structure. However, with SGX Nifty indicating a negative start today, if this happens, both indices may move in a range-bound structure. Let's explain this further in the charts. Nifty Current View: If the market starts with a gap-down, then the immediate support level (24983) will act as strong support. If the market finds support there, it could take a minimum pullback of 38% to 61% of the minor swing, likely continuing the same range-bound movement. This is the basic structure. Alternate View: The alternate view suggests that if the market breaks this level solidly or consolidates at that level, the correction is likely to continue towards 24882.
NSE:NIFTY
by Manickamtraders
#nifty directions and levels for October 14th.Good morning, friends! 🌞 Here are the market directions and levels for October 14th. Market Overview: There have been no significant changes in the global or local markets. The global market is showing a bullish sentiment, while our local market has a moderately bearish trend. We anticipate a neutral to slightly gap-up opening today, with SGX Nifty indicating a positive +10 points as of 8 AM. In the previous session, Nifty closed with consolidation, while Bank Nifty experienced a minor correction. However, structurally, both are in a range-bound phase. Trading in a range market can be difficult as we may not see clear movement, direction, or option premium. However, if you’re looking to trade, we can consider a breakout entry, which I'll explain in the charts. Nifty: > If the market breaks either above 25,040 or below 24,897, we can enter a breakout trade. Target levels are 25,167 on the upside and 24,810 on the downside. > It is important to note that after a breakout, if the market experiences gradual movements or rejects the immediate support or resistance level, it is likely to close at the same level as it opened today. > On the other hand, if the market consolidates around the immediate support or resistance level after the breakout, the direction is likely to continue.
NSE:NIFTY
by Manickamtraders
Where the Nifty 50 index might head in the next few days?Technical Analysis: The chart indicates that Nifty is currently near the 25,000 mark, with key Fibonacci retracement levels acting as resistance and support zones. A notable resistance is at the 0.382 level around 25,277, while the 0.618 level near 25,653 might be another hurdle if the index manages a short-term rally. Given the recent bearish momentum, a further drop could test the 24,900 level, especially if the index fails to break above the 25,277 resistance. Outlook: Given the technical setup and the current FII-DII dynamics, the Nifty could remain under pressure if FII selling continues. Traders should watch the support at 24,900 closely, as a break below this level could signal further downside. Conversely, if the Nifty can hold above 25,000 and gain momentum past 25,277, it may target the 25,653 level as the next resistance. The outlook is cautious, with a bias towards a bearish trend unless there's a reversal in FII sentiment or a strong technical breakout above key resistance levels
NSE:NIFTYShort
by strategystack
#nifty directions and levels for October 10th.Good morning, friends! 🌞 Here are the market directions and levels for October 10th. Market Overview: The global market is displaying bullish sentiment, while our local market shows a moderately bearish trend. A gap-up opening is anticipated today, with SGX Nifty indicating an increase of approximately +110 points as of 8 AM. In the last session, we saw a lot of movement due to the RBI policy. The market is still somewhat weak overall, but the Gift Nifty is showing a positive start with around +100 points gap-up. This is because of global factors, like the Dow Jones going up strongly after the FOMC minutes. Gift Nifty also reacted to this. What should we do with this sentiment? We should wait for a breakout in a certain range. If the market breaks this range, we can follow that direction because of the mixed local and global factors. I'll explain this more clearly in the charts. Nifty and Bank Nifty have similar chart patterns. Nifty Current View: The current view suggests that if the gap-up doesn't sustain or the market rejects near the immediate resistance level of 25,173, then the correction may likely continue with a minimum downside of 78%. However, one additional confirmation is needed: after rejection, the market should break the lower trendline or the previous day's closing candle. Alternate View: The alternate view suggests that if the gap-up sustains, the market may consolidate around the 25,173 level. After consolidation, if this level is broken, we can expect the pullback to continue, targeting a minimum upside level of 25,272 to 78%.
NSE:NIFTY
by Manickamtraders
India Inc Quarterly Earnings and Nifty Corelation We all know that our beloved NSE:NIFTY has shy of 1500 points in short time, falling from a cliff. Naturally people are eager to guess if the holy grail Bottom is there, or it will test the 4th of June Election Result Day low at least. Being a price action student, it's always good to look at the history and try to take a leaf out from it. Specifically, when I can recall what happened one year back in October 2023 where there were substantial FII selloffs before Q2 results (of FY 23-24). Of course there is a slight difference in the situation. Last year the moonsoon was not that good, this year above normal. So I took all the last 4 quarterly result and see what happened around these times in Daily timeframe. As it's evident: In 26/10/23 (Q2 results midway) there were a dip to 18850 level when RSI was at oversold region. Within next two months, the Nifty gave ~15% return. Again during 24th Jan'24 (Q3 results midway) there is a dip and then Nifty quickly recovered. Again during 19/04/24 (Q4/annual results midway), there is a dip and then again smart recovery. The things become even more interesting if we check the RSI beyond this point (last 6 months). Here are the obervations: 19th April'24, 9th May'24, 4th June'24, 5th Aug'24 - the RSI was at 40 level. Price were more or less around same/similar level. (Except Aug when Nifty was at 24000). Now the Nifty RSI was at 36. But the price is at 24800. It's indices Hidden Bullish Divergence My Expectation: There can be a little more dip (lets say another 150-250 points, at max 24550). Then Nifty starts recovering smartly and will try to reclaim the 25500 Resistance level. We shall see what will happen next. So essentially end of this week onwards expecting a 800/1000 points recovery, IMO. Seems too optimistic? May be .. lets see. Just sharing my personal views. End the day: Market is Supreme and Price Action is the King.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by pradipandsuvra
Short term trading opportunity in AISL for > 20% upsideHi, NSE:AISL has given a Bullish Flag Breakout on Daily charts with very good volume. MACD is also on the bullish side on Daily time frames. RSI is also on the bullish side on daily, weekly and monthly time frames. In the current market scenario, I am expecting that the bullish momentum will continue. Complete price projection like entry, stop loss and targets mentioned on the charts for educational purpose. Don't Forget to Follow me to get all the updates. Please share your feedback or any queries on the study. Disclaimer: Please consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
NSE:AISL
by raigvivek
#Nifty directions and levels for October 3rd.Current View: If the market opens with a gap-down, both Nifty and Bank Nifty are expected to continue in a bearish structure, with some minor consolidation. Even if there’s a pullback, this type of correction typically won’t break the 38% Fibonacci level in the minor swing. This is our first scenario. Alternate View: If the market initially rejects around the immediate support level and breaks the 38% Fibonacci level in the minor swing, it could shift into a range-bound market. In this case, targets are expected around the 78% Fibonacci level in the minor swing.
NSE:NIFTY
by Manickamtraders
#Nifty directions and levels for September 30th.Good morning, friends! 🌞 Here are the market directions and levels for September 30th. Market Overview: The global market has a moderately bullish sentiment, and our local market reflects the same moderately bullish sentiment. Today, the market may open with a gap-down due to the SGX Nifty indicating a negative 80 points. In the previous session, both Nifty and Bank Nifty closed negatively, and the SGX Nifty also suggests that this trend may continue. Even though the overall structure indicates a negative trend, there are no key points suggesting a substantial continuation of this trend, which is why I have categorized it as a range-bound market. However, if the gap-down solidly breaks the immediate support level, then a correction is likely to continue. Let's analyze this further through the charts. Nifty Current View: The current view suggests that if the market finds support around the immediate support level (26073), we can expect a range-bound market between the previous high and the upcoming low. This is our first variation. This sentiment represents a slightly bullish bias, meaning that after this consolidation, if it breaks the previous high, the rally is likely to continue. Alternate View: The alternate view indicates that if the gap-down sustains and breaks the immediate support level, then the correction is likely to continue down to the minimum Fibonacci level of 23%
NSE:NIFTY
by Manickamtraders
2
Short term trading opportunity in Proventus Agro for> 20% upsideHi, NSE:PROV has given a Bullish Flag Breakout on Weekly charts with very good volume. MACD is also on the bullish side on Weekly time frames. RSI is also on the bullish side on daily, weekly and monthly time frames. In the current market scenario, I am expecting that the bullish momentum will continue. Complete price projection like entry, stop loss and targets mentioned on the charts for educational purpose. Don't Forget to Follow me to get all the updates. Please share your feedback or any queries on the study. Disclaimer: Please consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
NSE:PROVLong
by raigvivek
1
Short term trading opportunity in Tata Power for > 6% upsideHi, NSE:TATAPOWER has given a Bullish On Neck Breakout on Daily charts with very good volume. MACD is also on the bullish side on Weekly time frames. RSI is also on the bullish side on daily, weekly and monthly time frames. In the current market scenario, I am expecting that the bullish momentum will continue. Complete price projection like entry, stop loss and targets mentioned on the charts for educational purpose. Don't Forget to Follow me to get all the updates. Please share your feedback or any queries on the study. Disclaimer: Please consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
NSE:TATAPOWERLong
by raigvivek
2
#Nifty directions and levels for the first week of October.Good evening, friends! 🌞 Here are the market directions and levels for the first week of October. Global Outlook: In the previous week, the global market closed near where it started, indicating that the market moved in a consolidation phase. What about this week? There are many major events, such as US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech, the monthly JOLTs job openings and quits, unemployment rate, non-farm payrolls, vehicle sales, and factory orders data. Therefore, this week might be a little volatile. Our Market: The weekly candle for Nifty closed with a green candle, while Bank Nifty closed with a shooting star, suggesting moderate momentum. This implies that even if the market takes a bullish or bearish bias, it won’t experience significant momentum. Let’s analyze this in the charts. Nifty Current View: If the market starts with a red candle, we can expect a 23% to 38% correction in the minor swing. Structurally, it shouldn't break the 38% Fibonacci level. In case it breaks this level, we could expect the next target to be a 50% correction on the downside. > in this variation, if it finds support around the 38% level, it could return to where it started this week. This is our first scenario. Alternate View: The alternate view suggests that if the market rejects around the immediate support level and consolidates, then the rally could continue once it breaks the previous high. If this happens, we can expect the next targets to be a minimum of 26,460 to 26,568. This is our alternate scenario.
NSE:NIFTY
by Manickamtraders
#Nifty directions and levels for September 26th.Good morning, friends! 🌞 Here are the market directions and levels for September 26th. Market Overview: There have been no significant changes in the global and local markets; both maintain a bullish bias. Today, the market is expected to open neutral to slightly positive, with SGX Nifty indicating a rise of around +60 points as of 8 AM. In the previous session, both Nifty and Bank Nifty continued consolidating. However, it seems a breakout may occur this session, as GIFT Nifty is suggesting a gap-up opening. If this gap-up sustains, we can expect the rally to continue. We had previously discussed that this could be a sub-wave 5th. So, if the breakout has a solid structure, the trend is likely to continue. Conversely, if the movement is gradual, the rise may be limited. We'll explain this further in the charts. Both Nifty and Bank Nifty reflect the same sentiment. Nifty Current View: The current view suggests that if the first move consolidates around the supply zone (MSZ), Nifty could reach a maximum of 26,146. Conversely, if the first move breaks the supply zone with solid momentum, the rally may continue, with some consolidation around 26,220. This is our first scenario. Alternate View: The alternate view suggests that if the market declines or faces rejection near the supply zone, the range may hold. However, the precise move is if the rejection breaks the 38% Fibonacci level of the minor swing, it could extend to a minimum of 78%, reaching 25,833.
NSE:NIFTY
by Manickamtraders
3
#Nifty directions and levels for September 25th.Good morning, friends! 🌞 Here are the market directions and levels for September 25th. Market Overview: There have been no significant changes in the global and local markets; both have maintained a bullish bias. Today, the market is expected to open neutrally to slightly negatively, with SGX Nifty suggesting a negative move of around -20 points as of 8 AM. Both Nifty and Bank Nifty consolidated yesterday, and structurally, this could continue today as well. However, if the market sustains the gap-down and solidly breaks the 38% Fibonacci level, the correction is likely to continue. On the other hand, if it does not break that level, the range will likely persist. I believe there is no need to explain it further, as we have seen the same sentiment over the past two days. However, if you need more clarification, please take a glance at the information below. Nifty Current View: If the market declines, it could experience a correction of 23% to 38% on the downside. After that, if it finds support in that range, it will likely return to where it closed yesterday. Conversely, if it solidly breaks the 38% level, the correction may continue with a minimum decline of 50% to 78% in the minor swing. This is our first variation. Alternate Variation: An alternate view suggests a range-bound market. If the market initially takes a solid pullback, the diagonal trend is likely to continue.
NSE:NIFTY
by Manickamtraders
Medium term trading opportunity in MGL for > 20% upsideHi, NSE:MGL has given a Bullish Flag Breakout on Weekly charts with very good volume. MACD is also on the bullish side on Weekly time frames. RSI is also on the bullish side on daily, weekly and monthly time frames. In the current market scenario, I am expecting that the bullish momentum will continue. Complete price projection like entry, stop loss and targets mentioned on the charts for educational purpose. Don't Forget to Follow me to get all the updates. Please share your feedback or any queries on the study. Disclaimer: Please consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
NSE:MGLLong
by raigvivek
medium term trading opportunity in Hubtown for huge upsideHi, NSE:HUBTOWN has given a Bullish Flag Breakout on Weekly charts with very good volume. MACD is also on the bullish side on Weekly time frames. RSI is also on the bullish side on daily, weekly and monthly time frames. In the current market scenario, I am expecting that the bullish momentum will continue. Complete price projection like entry, stop loss and targets mentioned on the charts for educational purpose. Don't Forget to Follow me to get all the updates. Please share your feedback or any queries on the study. Disclaimer: Please consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
NSE:HUBTOWNLong
by raigvivek