NIFTY 50 - SPOT CHARTForming Reversal Chart pattern on Daily time frame -
A reversal pattern in technical analysis is a chart pattern that indicates a potential change in the prevailing trend of a financial asset. These patterns suggest that an ongoing uptrend or downtrend is losing momentum and may be about to reverse direction. Traders and investors use reversal patterns to anticipate trend changes and make trading decisions.
Expecting Chart Pattern - Head and Shoulder
The head and shoulders pattern consists of three peaks – a higher peak (head) in the middle and two lower peaks (shoulders) on either side. A reversal occurs when the price breaks below the "neckline" support.
Niftyview
Nifty weekly analysis for 23/10/23Nifty has been taking support around the round figure number of 19500 and has formed a kind of tweezer top on the weekly charts.
The market has been volatile and still confused in deciding the trend.
It has closed below the 20 ema on the daily charts. There is an inside candle or a halt candle after a gap down opening.
Market has been consolidating in a range from 21 september and the month of october has entered the last week of the month.
High chance of a break out or break down are there. It can give nice targets with a small Stop loss in a trade.
On the hourly chart, there is a bearish moving averages cross over and it remained in the first hour candle after a gap down opening.
Still the markets are hitting the stop losses and are not profitable for an intraday option buyers.
Sideway cycle of the market will be changed once it starts trading outside the major levels of 19500 to 19850. Once this range is cleared on the either side there will be a trending market.
On the smaller time frame, market hasn't moved much while taking resistnace from the 20 ema and closed below both the moving averages (15 minute chart).
Support :- 19480-500, 19350
Resistance :- 19580, 19680
Market has been consolidating after a gap up or gap down opening and there will be a movement once it opens flat.
Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
Monthly perspective - Tight Price ChannelPrice Range: 19200 to 19900, tight range, Charactics,
Institutional Data: Heavy Selling in past 45 days, the amount is reflected in attached screenshot.
Relative strength : Bullish
Upside: 19800-19900 is crucial range
Downside: Below 19200,
Support range 18100, 17400.
What should be done?
19200-19900 is NO ACT ZONE
20th Oct ’23 - Contrasting Trade Signals by N50 and BN todayNifty Analysis
Recap from yesterday: ”Since we are between 19446 and 19776, Nifty is still range bound — but BankNifty has fallen below the support and is looking weak. For tomorrow I wish to change my stance to bearish with the first target of 19511 and 2nd target of 19446. If we are climbing up, would not prefer to go long until 19776 is not taken out.”
Nifty had a gap-down opening with the long wick on the 1st candle retesting the 19520 swing-low we hit yesterday. Right after that the momentum just died out. There were no wild swings or flash moves - we just traded flat. A consolidation at these levels was not something I had in mind. It is too early for that as worsening global macros should have pushed Nifty below 19310 by now.
As I write this newsletter, India VIX ended the trade at 10.81 and US VIX is at 21.6. Can you imagine we have a 100% gap between the India and US volatility index? I am 100% sure that one of these markets is pricing in the information wrongly. No way both of them can be right.
On the 1hr chart - today’s 0.42% drop has not moved the needle or bias. The first support of 19446 is still untested, which means higher weightage will go for range-based trade instead of outright bearish. Keeping the global macros in mind, I still wish to continue my bearish stance and expect the 19446 to be taken out on Monday and retest the 19310 soon.
Nifty levels - Oct 23, 2023Nifty support and resistance levels are valuable tools for making informed trading decisions, specifically when combined with the analysis of 5-minute timeframe candlesticks and VWAP. By closely monitoring these levels and observing the price movements within this timeframe, traders can enhance the accuracy of their entry and exit points. It is important to bear in mind that support and resistance levels are not fixed, and they can change over time as market conditions evolve.
The dashed lines on the chart indicate the reaction levels, serving as additional points of significance to consider. Furthermore, take note of the response at the levels of the High, Low, and Close values from the day prior.
We hope you find this information beneficial in your trading endeavors.
* If you found the idea appealing, kindly tap the Boost icon located at the bottom right. We encourage you to share your thoughts and comments regarding it.
Wishing you success in your trading activities!
#Nifty directions and levels for #october20"Good morning, friends! As of October 20th, there is no significant difference between the last session, and the global market sentiment is negative, as indicated by the Dow Jones. However, our market is bearish. It may open with a significant gap-down. After that, the market may find support around the immediate support level, and we can expect a minor pullback (23% to 38% Fibonacci level). On the other hand, if the correction breaks the immediate support level, then the correction is likely to continue. Today also the GiftNifty indicates a long gap-down, so if there are any changes in the market's direction, I will inform you in the mid-market session."
NIfty prediction analysis today (20-OCT)NIfty seems bearish as we can see nifty has been in the range as shown on the chart.
Nifty will be facing a good resistance at the level 19665 and also EMA 200 will be providing resistance on uppar side. It seems bearish for this week
Reason:
Price < EMAs(13,200)
RSI is 40, declining shows weaknees of bulls.
up side multiple resistance such as EMA 200, VWAP, priceaction resistance, etc.
PCR = 0.89 (bullish) because people have shorted 19500 heavily.
Verdict:
Data shows the bearish signals or Sideways.
Plan of action:
observe 15 min candle and then once market is settled go for Selling options. option buying may not be good in such market.
19th Oct ’23 - How do we recover from a Gap-Down Like that? Nifty Weekly Analysis
Between the last expiry and today, Nifty has only fallen 172pts ~ 0.87%. Meanwhile, BankNifty fell 1.42% in its weekly expiry (we discussed it in yesterday’s newsletter). Nifty is still range bound whereas BankNifty has dropped below the support. Usually BankNifty leads the reversals, so we can increase our expectation of a fall in Nifty going ahead.
Nifty Today Analysis
Recap from yesterday: “On the 1hr TF, I wish to change my stance from bullish to neutral but with a bearish bias. The rationale being the intensity of the 10.15 candle that cut through the support. That candle looks purposefully planted to bring a bearish bias. If we start moving downwards tomorrow, my first target will be 19600 followed by 19529.
Quite interestingly both predictions came true, we broke the targets 19600, 19529 and ended the day with a neutral tone. I was not surprised by the gap-down open of -100pts or so, it was expected as SPX ended the day with a loss of 1.3% yesterday. What surprised me was the recovery of 168pts ~ 0.87% that came between 09.35 to 14.05 wherein Nifty50 traded in the green for a brief period.
Usually, when the bearish targets are taken out it means we are falling and the market has no will or power to climb back. The 5mts candle at 11.25 alone gave a boost of 60pts. Getting your view right and making money are 2 different things you know. The moment you go bearish, you get an instant reversal taking out your stop loss. This might have been the case with most of the traders today.
From the 1hr chart, you can notice how deep the gap-down open today. And the 11.45 candle that closed the gap with a gain of 86pts more or less would have taken the soul out of the bears. Since we are between 19446 and 19776, Nifty is still range bound - but BankNifty has fallen below the support and is looking weak. For tomorrow I wish to change my stance to bearish with the first target of 19511 and 2nd target of 19446. If we are climbing up, would not prefer to go long until 19776 is not taken out.
FASP levels for Nifty 20/10/2023The FASP for Nifty is listed for 20-10-2023. You can add this levels to your trade setup for better results. This should not be the only indicator but an additional tool to increase your winning possibilities.
What is Fibolysis Anchor SupRes Points(FASP)?
It is a unique level arrived by using Fibonacci Retracement , Fibonacci Extension , Standard Pivot levels under various Timeframes. It is an extensively analyzed level to draw the support and resistance levels for the next day. You can use these levels along with your trade setup to increase your winning odds.
Validity of the levels: 1 Day
How to use these levels?
The three levels on both sides are usually easily achievable. The Targets above are bit difficult to achieve in a single trading session. I use this fact to write intraday positions and to buy options.
Color Coding: Green is regular support and buying area, Red is strong exit area
Disclaimer: This is shared in the interest of educational purpose and for knowledge enhancement. Kindly refer it in the same light. I am not responsible for any profits or loss incurred based on this information.
Nifty levels - Oct 20, 2023Nifty support and resistance levels are valuable tools for making informed trading decisions, specifically when combined with the analysis of 5-minute timeframe candlesticks and VWAP. By closely monitoring these levels and observing the price movements within this timeframe, traders can enhance the accuracy of their entry and exit points. It is important to bear in mind that support and resistance levels are not fixed, and they can change over time as market conditions evolve.
The dashed lines on the chart indicate the reaction levels, serving as additional points of significance to consider. Furthermore, take note of the response at the levels of the High, Low, and Close values from the day prior.
We hope you find this information beneficial in your trading endeavors.
* If you found the idea appealing, kindly tap the Boost icon located at the bottom right. We encourage you to share your thoughts and comments regarding it.
Wishing you success in your trading activities!
Nifty directions and levels for #October19"Good morning, friends! As of October 19th, the global market sentiment is negative, as indicated by the Dow Jones. However, our market is moderately bearish. It may open with a significant gap-down. After that, the market may find support around the immediate support level, and we can expect a minor pullback (23% to 38% Fibonacci level). On the other hand, if the correction breaks the immediate support level, then the correction is likely to continue.
Nifty weekly analysis for 19/10/23.Today there was a nice fall in the indian markets and nifty has given closed 140 points lower forming a nice bearish candle.
It has closed below the 20 ema which is round 19700 level. There are chance of nifty holding the market as there was less fall in the index as compare to banknifty.
On the hourly charts, it has closed below both the moving averages and there are high chances of market following the fall.
There is also a bearish moving averages cross over, on smaller time frame, which also show there can be a fall in coming days.
RSI indicator is showing some bearish divergence on the higher intraday time frame.
Watch for option premiums as tomorrow is the weekly expiry. Only one more week will be left in the october month.
Support :- 19580, 19480-500
Resistance :- 19720, 19780
Market were in the consolidation phase and after few days it has given a nice trending move. If the global sentiment also align with today's move, there are high chance of market testing 18900 levels soon.
Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
Nifty Intraday Trade Setup | 18th OctGift Nifty indicating a flat to minor gap-down opening, and we expect to see weakness if Nifty sustains below 19770. Nifty is facing resistance again n again in 19800 - 19840 zone. Let it sustain above 19850 to buy.
Expectations: Volatile Day
Intraday Levels:
Buy Above - 19850
Sell Below - 19770
To motivate us, Please like the idea If you agree with the analysis.
Happy Trading!
Nifty levels - Oct 19, 2023Nifty support and resistance levels are valuable tools for making informed trading decisions, specifically when combined with the analysis of 5-minute timeframe candlesticks and VWAP. By closely monitoring these levels and observing the price movements within this timeframe, traders can enhance the accuracy of their entry and exit points. It is important to bear in mind that support and resistance levels are not fixed, and they can change over time as market conditions evolve.
The dashed lines on the chart indicate the reaction levels, serving as additional points of significance to consider. Furthermore, take note of the response at the levels of the High, Low, and Close values from the day prior.
We hope you find this information beneficial in your trading endeavors.
* If you found the idea appealing, kindly tap the Boost icon located at the bottom right. We encourage you to share your thoughts and comments regarding it.
Wishing you success in your trading activities!
Nifty direction and levels for #October18th"Good morning, friends! As of October 18th, the global market sentiment is neutral to slightly negative, as indicated by the Dow Jones. However, our market is still within a range. It may open neutrally. If it breaks the previous day's low, the 50% Fibonacci level will act as strong support. If the market finds support there, we can expect the range market to continue its rally. However, if it breaks or consolidates, the correction will likely continue. On the other hand, if the market breaks the previous day's high, we can set our target at the next resistance level."
17th Oct ’23 - Nifty Breaches Resistance Zone 19776 - PostMortemNifty Analysis
Recap from yesterday: “On the 1hr chart, I wish to maintain the neutral stance until we break out or break down. Since we are near the resistance level, the probability of breaking out could be higher. That does not mean we jump the gun and take the trade early — patience is gold”
Nifty got a mega boost by the gap-up open of almost 118pts ~ 0.6%. Since it took out my resistance zone, I had to change my bias from neutral to bullish. Interestingly Nifty looked strong till 13.20 after which it shed 72pts ~ 0.36% in 50mts. Despite that misadventure, we still respected the support of 19776. The final closing was also quite good and above the 19800 levels.
On the 1hr TF, we have formed an island just above the 19776 levels. Today’s swing high has taken out the highs of 12th October. I wish to continue with my bullish stance as long as the support of 19776 is respected. Ideally, the next target should be 19907 and then 19998 if we are going up.
Not sure why, but our markets are looking bullish despite a war in the Middle East, surging gold, surging crude oil, and surging treasury yields in the US. Why are Indian stock indices insulated from these multi-headed shocks? Either the fundamentals are not bad or the technicals (charts) have not priced in these anomalies. As a technical trader, the only option for me is to follow the charts even while knowing something’s off. India VIX @ 10.69, US VIX @ 17.88
Nifty daily analysis for 18/10/23.Nifty is still unable to trade above the resistance levels of 19850. After a gap up opening the market came for selling and consolidated around the level.
There was a sell off in the second half, taking support around the support level as well as the 20 ema on the hourly charts.
Market gave a nice move but there was no follow through in the markets. The markets are holding on the higher levels which signifies there will be a break out trade in the coming days.
Of the major trend the market has crossed and sustain above the 50% fibonacci level but it is unable to test 61.8% levels.
On the 15 minute charts, the market tried to sustain the higher levels and in the second half it started trading below the 20 ema.
Support :- 19780, 19730
Resistance :- 19840, 19900
Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
Nifty levels - Oct 18, 2023Nifty support and resistance levels are valuable tools for making informed trading decisions, specifically when combined with the analysis of 5-minute timeframe candlesticks and VWAP. By closely monitoring these levels and observing the price movements within this timeframe, traders can enhance the accuracy of their entry and exit points. It is important to bear in mind that support and resistance levels are not fixed, and they can change over time as market conditions evolve.
The dashed lines on the chart indicate the reaction levels, serving as additional points of significance to consider. Furthermore, take note of the response at the levels of the High, Low, and Close values from the day prior.
We hope you find this information beneficial in your trading endeavors.
* If you found the idea appealing, kindly tap the Boost icon located at the bottom right. We encourage you to share your thoughts and comments regarding it.
Wishing you success in your trading activities!
#October17th directions and levels for Nifty"Good morning, friends! As of October 17th, the global market sentiment is positive, as indicated by the Dow Jones. However, our market trend is in a ranging market. It may open with a gap-up, which indicates a ranging market structure. Therefore, if the market rejects the immediate resistance or if the gap-up doesn't sustain, we can expect a range market continuation. We can expect a pullback continuation only if it breaks the immediate resistance."
Nifty Intraday Trade Setup | 17th OctGift Nifty indicating a gap-up opening, and we expect to see more strength if Nifty sustains above 19805 towards 19850 and upper levels.
Expectations: Volatile Day
Intraday Levels:
Buy Above - 19805
Sell Below - 19690
To motivate us, Please like the idea If you agree with the analysis.
Happy Trading!
16th Oct ’23 - Flattish Day with no flavor - PostMortem on NiftyNifty Analysis
Recap from yesterday: “On the 1hr pattern, the first thing I would like to do is change my stance from bullish to neutral. We have broken the 19776 support today and well above the 19446 zone. For Monday I wish to go with the neutral trades only and go short if we fall below 19614 in the forenoon session.”
We started the day with a strong red candle, maybe the spillover effect as SPX had closed with a cut of 0.5% on Friday. We did not fall below 19614 so there was no question of going short. Interestingly we recovered 89pts by 11.45 and was trading with a tint of green. Markets were absolutely flat with no flavor, people who had deployed directional strategies would have felt asleep seeing the price action. Traders who went with non-directional strategies like the iron condor, iron fly or straddles/strangles would have hit the jackpot.
In the last hour, we gave away 50pts - but nothing to worry about. Our VIX ended the day with 11.07 whereas US VIX is still at 17.61 even after a 9% collapse after SPX went green today. Lower VIX in Indian markets reflects the lack of fear or uncertainties - reiterating that it is a pathetic period to sell options thinking you can collect whatever premium is available. Selling low is not a good strategy - it is better to wait out or take a vacation if you are that impulsive.
On the 1hr chart, I wish to maintain the neutral stance until we break out or break down. Since we are near the resistance level, the probability of breaking out could be higher. That does not mean we jump the gun and take the trade early - patience is gold. I personally prefer to see a fall and retest of the 19446 levels by this Thursday - that is the only way I know to drive up the VIX.