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Morning Mantra - 11th August 2023Dear All,
Yesterday we had got to witness a minute closing of near 19550, i.e., at 19543.10
Therefore, overall we can see that the Market is currently trading in a consolidation phase. Where it is better to wait for a clear cut indication, as of now.
Furthermore, we had also witnessed a selling pressure in most of the stocks yesterday. So, with the support of 19300, we can take this downfall as an opportunity for the upcoming days.
Keep Trading!
Keep Investing!
Regards,
Alok Daiya
SEBI Registered Research Analyst
10 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty + weekly expiry analysisNifty Weekly Analysis
Between the last expiry day and today, Nifty has managed to rise 152pts ~ 0.78% which is a good sign for the bulls. This flattish phase was much required after Nifty picked up a direction from 21st July. The technical analysis points to a trend continuation possibility and should be good for the bears!
Nifty Today Analysis
Today’s move was very much influenced by the RBI MPC decision on Repo rate & Cash reserve ratio. We will discuss that in detail as part of banknifty’s analysis (below). If you recollect yesterday we had an unusual spike in the last 1 hour & most of the traders including me were not expecting that.
What happened today was to negate that move in the opening 1hr. I assume many traders would have taken the stop loss hits both times (1 yesterday and 1 today). After the 1st hour move - nifty did not really go anywhere. If you notice the chart above the price levels at 14.30 yesterday & the close today is the same.
The 100pts in the last 1hr yesterday and the 128pts between 10.20 to 10.40 today was just a roller coaster ride for thrills. The OTM options premiums were reflecting this perfectly - neither did we have a major spike yesterday nor today. So the big boys were quite expecting this.
The 1hr chart shows how nifty has managed to close right at the trend line today. If we have a gap down opening tomorrow - the bears will feel confident to push down the prices further. The first target to take out would be the 19300 levels.
On the other hand if we have a gap-up opening, the bulls will have to take control to breach the 19690 levels which will negate the lower-high formation. My stance is 80% bearish and 20% neutral for tomorrow.
Nifty daily analysis for 11/08/23.Market are very volatile and is killing profits for option buyer.
Today's market was good in the first half as it gave a nice bearish movement but got jittery in the second half.
Being expiry, no trending market was seen even in the closing hour and nifty closed 90 points lower forming another lower wick rejection doji.
On the daily charts, market is seriously taking support from the 20 ema and today after touching a low of 19495 it reversed immediately closing around the moving average.
The 10:15 AM candle was a good candle and a nice bearish move was seen, this candle lost 83 points and market traded in the range of this candle whole day.
On the hourly chart, 20 ema was creating confusion as it traded around it and closed just below the moving average.
Support :- 19480-500, 19420
Resistance :- 19550, 19600-30
Support and resistances are nearby as market is volatile and can reverse from any of the levels. Scalp trades and short selling is good in this kind of market as there no clear trend till now.
Market is closing in a small range. Clearly scenario will be there once it starts closing outside the range.
Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
Nifty levelsNifty support and resistance levels are valuable tools for making informed trading decisions, specifically when combined with the analysis of 5-minute timeframe candlesticks and VWAP. By closely monitoring these levels and observing the price movements within this timeframe, traders can enhance the accuracy of their entry and exit points. It is important to bear in mind that support and resistance levels are not fixed, and they can change over time as market conditions evolve.
The dashed lines on the chart indicate the reaction levels, serving as additional points of significance to consider.
We hope you find this information beneficial in your trading endeavors.
* If you found the idea appealing, kindly tap the Boost icon located at the bottom right. We encourage you to share your thoughts and comments regarding it.
Wishing you success in your trading activities!
#Nifty"Good morning! As of August 10th, the global market sentiment is slightly negative (based on the Dow Jones alone), while the market trend remains moderately bullish. There is no significant difference from the last session. Therefore, whether it opens with a gap-up or down, it won't matter. If the initial market experiences sharp declines, we can anticipate a ranging market or a correction. On the other hand, if the market exceeds yesterday's high, we can expect the rally to continue with minor corrections. However, the important thing to note is that today's market has a significant event: the RBI MPC meeting at 10 am. This is a major event, and the market will likely move based on its outcome. So, it's advisable to take your position a bit more cautiously. "
Nifty Intraday TradeSetup for 10-08-2023Nifty important Intraday levels to watch are as follows
Expectations: Volatile day
#Support: 19540
Sell below: 19540 only on 15 minute candle closure below the level. agressive sell below demand zone.
Target 1: 19450
Target 2: 19320
#Resistance: 19640
Buy Above: 19640 only on 15 minute candle closure Above the level. agressive buy above supply zone.
Target 1: 19690
Target 2: 19780
#Demand Zone: 19450-19480 may act as a buying zone and price may bounce from the region marked in green on the chart.
#Supply Zone: 19765-19745 may act as a selling zone and price may reject from the region marked in red on the chart.
#Remember each level will act as a support and resistance individually so there is a probability of reversal on either side. Please do your own research before initiating any trade. Always keep stoploss in order to protect your capital.
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Morning Mantra - 10th August 2023Dear All,
So finally we have observed the impact of witnessing a closing of above 19550 for 2 consecutive days, just as it was stated. As after those 2 days, Nifty has ultimately given us a positive closing of approx 19632.55 yesterday.
Altogether, the Market is currently in a very choppy mode. Where we can clearly observe the stock specific momentum, which is also due to the ongoing Result season.
So, as per the current scenario, we have to keep a track on the important levels of 19300-19550-19800.
Where, since Nifty is currently trading above the level of 19550, so we can expect it to move towards the level 19800 with the support of 19550 on closing basis. On the other hand, a closing below 19550, will activate the level of 19300 once again.
Therefore, in the meanwhile, be stock specific and keep following the Cherry Picking strategy.
Keep Trading!
Keep Investing!
Regards ,
Alok Daiya
SEBI Registered Research Analyst
Inverse head & shoulder activated in 1 hour ?Hi All,
I already posted an idea with 15 minutes. I will give reference below.
If we see in 1 hour from 27 Jul this pattern is getting formed and rejected multiple times at upper trendline. If we draw inverse head & shoulder pattern touching with the trendline we can see breakout has happened already today.
If this retests target is previous all time high.
Always trade carefully with proper SL because it’s your hard earned money.
Please note this is just my observation and purely for educational purposes only. Consult with your financial advisor before taking any trade.
09 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty Analysis Blown to Pieces Today🧨Yesterday we went with a 60% Neutral and 40% bearish stance for today. What happened from open till 13.15 - was in perfect harmony & as per the script. But the intraday rally of 177pts ~ 0.91% was totally shocking!
I was unprepared, unplanned and must say ran into losses today because of my bias. I should say with 100% honesty - my research failed me today. I had gone short once we broke the 19500 level - the rationale being Nifty is staying below the descending trend line. The short position held above water till the 19470 levels from where the reversals started hurting. Above 19590 even my neutral bias was taken for a ride. On the losses part - I dont feel that bad, because I have seen RED MTM before. But its been a while since my homework has proven me dead wrong.
Even now I am not entirely sure why we rallied like that, was it due to the RBI interest rate decision planned for tomorrow? (we will discuss in detail in the banknifty analysis section).
The 14.15 hourly candle that added 111pts ~ 0.57% has changed the game for Nifty. It ensured the final close is above the bearish trend line. The options premium of both PE and CE were abnormally low in spite of strong swing. This also limited my fire-fighting capabilities. For tomorrow I wish to stay neutral to start with, go long if 19700 levels are taken out and go short if we fall to 19550 levels.
Nifty levelsNifty support and resistance levels are valuable tools for making informed trading decisions, specifically when combined with the analysis of 5-minute timeframe candlesticks and VWAP. By closely monitoring these levels and observing the price movements within this timeframe, traders can enhance the accuracy of their entry and exit points. It is important to bear in mind that support and resistance levels are not fixed, and they can change over time as market conditions evolve.
The dashed lines on the chart indicate the reaction levels, serving as additional points of significance to consider.
We hope you find this information beneficial in your trading endeavors.
* If you found the idea appealing, kindly tap the Boost icon located at the bottom right. We encourage you to share your thoughts and comments regarding it.
Wishing you success in your trading activities!
Nifty Trade Setup for 09-08-2023Nifty important Intraday levels to watch are as follows
Expectations: Rangebound/Sideways day.
#Support: 19550
Sell below: 19550 only on 15 minute candle closure below the level. agressive sell below demand zone.
Target 1: 19510
Target 2: 19460
#Resistance: 19590
Buy Above: 19590 only on 15 minute candle closure Above the level agressive buy above supply zone.
Target 1: 19640
Target 2: 19680
#Demand Zone: 19530-19550 may act as a buying zone and price may bounce from the region marked in green on the chart.
#Supply Zone: 19630-19600 may act as a selling zone and price may reject from the region marked in red on the chart.
#Remember each level will act as a support and resistance individually so there is a probability of reversal on either side. Please do your own research before initiating any trade. Always keep stoploss in order to protect your capital.
Follow us for more such information and educational ideas. Give it a like if you appreciate the idea. Queries will be answered in comment section.