NZDUSD
New Zealand dollar soars on RBNZThe New Zealand dollar has recorded sharp gains on Wednesday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.7303, up 1.02% on the day.
As was widely expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand maintained its policy settings and kept the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 0.25%. The RBNZ also upgraded its economic forecasts for 2o21. This was not a surprise, given the economy's strong recovery. However, the rate statement was more hawkish than the market had expected, in particular the forward guidance as to a potential rate hike. The central bank's OCR projection suggested that we could see a rate hike as early as the fourth quarter of 2022. Ahead of the policy meeting, the well-respected Westpac Group said that they did not expect a rise in rates prior to 2024. The potential of a rate hike occurring much earlier than expected has sent the New Zealand dollar sharply higher.
Will the RBNZ be able to deliver on a rate hike late next year? That will depend on the strength of the economy, in particular, the inflation and employment situation. It is a hazardous game to predict rate hikes, as we saw Westpac forced to wipe egg off its face after its forecast for a rate hike was way off the mark.
It's been a banner week for the kiwi, which has racked gains of 1.8 per cent. The US dollar continues to stumble and is broadly weaker against the majors. We could still see further movement this week, as the US releases key data.
The highlight is US Preliminary GDP for the first quarter, which will be released on Thursday. The initial estimate came in at 6.4%, and the consensus for the second estimate has been upwardly revised to 6.5%. This will be followed on Friday by the Core PCE Price Index, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. The index is expected to rise to 0.6% in April, up from 0.4%. With higher inflation still a concern, a higher reading than the consensus could boost the US dollar.
NZD/USD is testing resistance at 0.7239, which has held since February 26. Above, there is resistance at 0.7314. There is support at 0.7120 and 0.7076
.
New Zealand dollar continues to gain groundThe New Zealand dollar continues to head higher this week. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.7244, up 0.37% on the day. It has been a strong start to the week for the New Zealand dollar, which is up 0.95%.
The US dollar is once again struggling against the major currencies. Inflation surged in April, which led to speculation that the Fed might contemplate scaling back QE. This gave the US dollar a brief boost earlier in May, but the market appears to have accepted the Fed line that higher inflation is transitory and any tightening of policy is a while off. The Federal Reserve continues to send out a consistent, clear message to the market that its ultra-accommodative policy will continue and that will maintain current QE levels. With a tighter policy unlikely in the short term, the US dollar has become less attractive to investors.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand holds its policy meeting on Wednesday. New Zealand data has been strong, but there are concerns of reflation as the economy heats up. The central bank is expected to sound dovish, with no changes forecast in policy. Still, given the strength of the economic recovery, investors will be looking for any hints of potential tapering to QE, which would be bullish for the New Zealand dollar.
Westpac expects the RBNZ to upwardly revise its economic forecasts for 2021. It also is projecting that inflation will easily surpass 2 per cent this year, but adds that the RBNZ has anticipated this and will view higher inflation as transitory. We have seen this script with the Federal Reserve, which has dismissed a recent surge in inflation as merely temporary. Finally, Westpac does not expect the central bank to hike rates before 2024.
NZD/USD is testing resistance at 0.7239. Above, there is resistance at 0.7314. There is support at 0.7120 and 0.7076
.
💡Don't miss the great sell opportunity in NZDUSD
Trading suggestion:
". There is still a possibility of temporary retracement to the suggested resistance line (0.72400).
if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets."
Technical analysis:
. NZDUSD is in a range bound, and the beginning of a downtrend is expected.
. The price is below the 21-Day WEMA, which acts as a dynamic resistance.
. The RSI is at 51
Take Profits:
TP1= @ 0.71800
TP2= @ 0.71500
TP3= @ 0.71150
SL: Break Above R2
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💡Don't miss the great sell opportunity in NZDUSD
Trading suggestion:
". There is still a possibility of temporary retracement to the suggested resistance line (0.7176).
if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets."
Technical analysis:
. NZDUSD is in a downtrend, and the continuation of the downtrend is expected.
. The price is below the 21-Day WEMA, which acts as a dynamic resistance.
. The RSI is at 45.
Take Profits:
TP1= @ 0.7131
TP2= @ 0.7115
TP3= @ 0.7050
TP4= @ 0.7006
TP5= @ 0.6965
SL: Break Above R2
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💡Don't miss the great sell opportunity in NZDUSD
Trading suggestion:
". There is still a possibility of temporary retracement to suggested resistance line (0.7167).
if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets."
Technical analysis:
. NZDUSD is in a downtrend and the continuation of downtrend is expected.
. The price is below the 21-Day WEMA which acts as a dynamic resistance.
. The RSI is at 32.
Take Profits:
TP1= @ 0.7114
TP2= @ 0.7090
TP3= @ 0.7055
TP4= @ 0.7026
TP5= @ 0.7003
SL: Break Above R2
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New Zealand dollar jumps after FOMC meetThe New Zealand dollar has steadied on Thursday after posting strong gains a day earlier. Currently, NZD/USD is trading at 0.7260, up 0.07% on the day. The pair has climbed 0.85% so far this week.
The New Zealand dollar continues to gain ground against the struggling US dollar. The kiwi has flexed its muscles in April, with sizzling gains of 3.97% this month, erasing the losses sustained in March. The FOMC meeting, which was passed without incident, saw the US dollar retreat broadly against the major currencies.
The FOMC meeting did not contain any surprises, as the Fed remained in dovish mode. However, a close look at the language of the rate statement and Fed Chair Powell's follow-up remarks revealed a few subtle changes from previous meetings. The Fed acknowledged progress in the battle to control Covid-19 and the strengthening of the US labour market, stating:
Amid progress on vaccinations and strong policy support, indicators of economic activity and employment have strengthened".
When Powell was asked specifically about tapering, he replied that it was too early to have a conversation about that. This sent US yields lower, dragging down the US dollar.
With the FOMC meeting out of the way, the markets can now focus on key economic releases. The US releases first-estimate GDP for Q1 on Thursday (12:30 GMT), and the consensus is for a strong gain of 6.8%, after a 4.3% gain for Q4, which was revised upwards from 4.0%. A print of 6.8% or higher could shake up the US bond market and send yields higher, which would likely give the US dollar a much-needed boost.
In New Zealand, business confidence improved to -2, up from the preliminary reading of -8.4 points. With the global demand growing for New Zealand commodities and stable domestic activity, I would expect business confidence to continue to improve in the coming months.
NZD/USD is testing resistance at 0.7243. This is followed by resistance at 0.7291. There is support at 0.7135 and 0.7075
NZDUSD 1H The price managed to come down to the latest major structure zone, but even if its above the zone I am looking for some bearish breakouts, why that?
I see the price after reaching the major high structure area, strong rejection happened and made little declination to the downside, that resist line is showing that. With that pressure, there are high probabilities for Double Top to form and break the neck zone, followed by retest and continuation, now at least down to the next structure zone.
💡Don't miss the great sell opportunity in NZDUSD Trading suggestion:
. There is a possibility of temporary retracement to the suggested resistance line (0.7270).
. If so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets.
Technical analysis:
. NZDUSD is in a range bound, and the beginning of a downtrend is expected.
. The price is below the 21-Day WEMA, which acts as a dynamic resistance.
. The RSI is at 32.
Take Profits:
TP1= @ 0.6940
TP2= @ 0.6775
TP3= @ 0.6615
TP4= @ 0.6385
TP5= @ 0.6240
SL= Break below S2
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💡 Don't miss the great sell opportunity in NZDUSDTrading suggestion:
. There is still a possibility of temporary retracement to suggested resistance line (0.7245). if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets.
Technical analysis:
. NZDUSD is in a range bound and the beginning of downtrend is expected.
.The price is above the 21-Day WEMA which acts as a dynamic support.
. The RSI is at 40.
Take Profits:
TP1= @ 0.7200
TP2= @ 0.7178
TP3= @ 0.7135
TP4= @ 0.7105
TP5= @ 0.7075
SL: Break Above R2
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NZDUSD battles monthly resistance line on the way to yearly topAlike all major currency pairs, NZDUSD also benefits from the broad US dollar weakness during the early Tuesday. In doing so, the pair buyers attack an upward sloping resistance line from January 13, currently around 0.7260. Should the kiwi bulls manage to cross the immediate hurdle, backed by upbeat MACD, the quote may not hesitate to challenge the multi-month top marked in January around 0.7315. During the NZDUSD run-up beyond 0.7315, the April 2018 peak surrounding the 0.7400 threshold will be the key.
Meanwhile, a 200-SMA level of 0.7180 can test short-term sellers during the pair’s fresh pullback moves. However, any further weakness will be questioned by an ascending support line from January 18, at 0.7110 now. Also acting as the downside filters could be the lows marked the previous month around 0.7105 and 0.7095. Overall, NZDUSD is up for a fresh bull-run but buyers should wait for a clear run-up beyond 0.7260.
💡 Don't miss the great sell opportunity in NZDUSDTrading suggestion:
. There is still a possibility of temporary retracement to suggested resistance line (0.719). if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets.
Technical analysis:
. NZDUSD is in a range bound and the beginning of downtrend is expected.
. The price is below the 21-Day WEMA which acts as a dynamic resistance.
. The RSI is at 30.
Take Profits:
TP1= @ 0.7140
TP2= @ 0.7120
TP3= @ 0.7100
SL: Break Above R2
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Trade well, ❤️
ForecastCity English Support Team ❤️