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21-10-21 Bank Nifty - What a Move! And yet it made me sad!A MISSED OPPORTUNITY THAT WOULD HAVE HELPED ME BUY A NEW LAPTOP! Trade Opportunity Date: 21-10-21 Yet another Missed Opportunity-- Bank Nifty at 39550+ Went long 39400 CE at 242 as it was an expiry day and did not want to make the mistake of trading an ATM CE. SL hit at 185 Moved to Nifty 18000 CE as I have not traded Bank Nifty after it cleared 39000 and clearly the SL was an indication that my readings were not good as I had the opportunity to at least place SL at cost or just below the cost. In between checked what happened to the 39400 CE. Surprised to see it at 185! After making a low of 87! The order window was opened by me but realized that the option had decayed to some extent. So suspecting a faster decay if Bank Nifty does not move for some time, i chose not to take the trade. Nifty CE was already in green so chose to play safe. My order would have been for 4 lots or 100 shares. Usually, I don't trade this size but I was expecting a bounce-back as Nifty had been beaten down and that is what usually happens on such days especially when they happen to be the expiry days. After some time I thought of checking where that CE is. I could do so as my Nifty trade was moving on well. 39400 CE was at 553! A few minutes later 600! EOD 632 Assuming I would have held on as I did in Nifty, I may have got 400 points or 100*400 = 40,000! No regrets as I was not ready to take the risk and my Nifty trade was moving on well But this has made my weekend work cut out for sure! This is the potential of Bank Nifty and I will find a way in which I can be part of such moves in the time to come. A few readers/viewers have asked me why I did not cover this huge move in my analysis. The reason is that I mainly analyze Nifty and Bank Nifty is a sub-set if it so it gets covered in any case. How many of you were able to catch this move or like me missed the move? I would love to read your feedback as always! Best wishes for a brighter week which also happens to be the Monthly Expiry week! Umesh 24-10-21
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
HDFC Bank - Real Options Strategy ExecutedHDFC BANK - OPTIONS STRATEGY EXECUTED IN MY ACCOUNT While I was getting ready to write a post cum video on the Infosys Strategy, I looked at my holdings and realized that HDFC Bank was once again at a make-or-break juncture - 1630. It has turned down from this level quite a few times. So exited half my position at the price and banked the gains. This helped me regain objectivity related to the scrip. And immediately, I thought of checking if I could fund a Bull Call Spread in HDFC Bank with the proceeds that I received from the sale of equity in part. I know smart readers are now calculating how many shares I would have sold and that is OK! I like that kind of approach as it would help you develop your mind to your benefit. I also do such things so I know this is a natural reaction. HDFC Bank is behaving like TCS as it is trying to scale higher highs as it gets ready to face the results that are due on 15-10-21. I know it is a bit too early to execute a strategy for the results but I had the funds today so for me, today was a good day. I chose to create a Bull CE Spread as under:-- Long 1620 CE at 44.30 Short 1640 CE at 36.05 When I executed the strategy, the spot was at 1629.65-1630. EOD is at the same level and my strategy is at cost. Please have a look at the video to know more about the details. In case you are reading this on your mobile App, you may not see the link. Please use a web version and you will see the video link in it. This issue has been flagged with Investing.com already. I will get back to you on 18-11-21 as that is when the scrip would react to the Q2 results. If you want to test a strategy like this, please remember that I am sharing this only for educational and informational purposes only. I believe that by sharing to the extent I can via such posts and videos, even I am able to improve my learnings and readings of the market. Please take good care of you capital as you would be in the game as long as your capital is alive - money would eventually come in once you are good at the process that you end up developing for yourself. Till we meet again, Please keep learning, implementing & making money! Best wishes, Umesh 12-10-21
NSE:HDFCBANKLong
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
4
Infosys Q2 results based strategies INFOSYS Q2 RESULT BASED STRATEGIES The IT heavyweight is scheduled to declare its results tomorrow. However, I am not sure at what time the results are likely to be declared so am creating the strategy now itself and have this post cum video explaining the basis on which I have created the strategy only for the purposes of tracking I have not taken a position. If I do take, I will let you know. Infosys has been behaving in a very unusual manner for quite some time. Either it goes up quickly and then abruptly falls and then goes in to a drifting mode then leading to consolidation. I have traded Long Only options in the scrip and have gained good ROI. However, for the last few weeks I have stayed away from all IT scrips in Options as the behavior is not something that I like to trade. Infosys Spot is at 1673 when I am writing this post so my strategies would be based on the same. Please watch the video to know the workings related to the strategy.
NSE:INFY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
Why Is It Necessary to Bank Gains in Options on a regular basis?In this post, I thought of sharing with you why it is necessary to exit Long Options in certain situations and bank gains. This is based on the trades that i had actually taken and is not a backtest story that I am sharing. HDFC BANK 1580 CE A few days ago , I bought HDFC BANK 1580 CE when the spot was at 1567. The intent was to ride it as long as I can and preferably till it reaches 1600 psycho resistance. The exit basis was based on the premise that I had picked up the trade using a good basis and the price at that time was in the zone. However, man wishes and the market disposes of the plan out the window! I soon realized that the underlying was not having enough strength and it was highly unlikely to cross even 1580, leave aside reaching closer to 1600. HDFC BANK has the tendency to quickly slip a few points and in such a case, my Option would come near cost and I would end up letting the gains evaporate. In view of this, I exited the long in good gains in terms of ROI % which is how I measure my trades as I do not trade with a big size as I have learned those lessons the hard way in the past. I was content with the trade and was expecting that the scrip may retest the area from where it had bounced. And something similar happened and without blinking, I went long on the same Option and interestingly, this time I could get it at a better price by 10 paise. On an HDFC BANK Option, even this small difference could well take care of all the charges so I was happy. And I waited for the price to test the earlier level from where it got rejected and as the scrip approached the level, I simply exited without thinking about a What if it goes beyond the resistance line? My exit was justified and then the scrip rolled down. I was happy that just by observing the price action and not really referring to any indicators, I was able to make 2 good trades. Or should I say - the market was kind enough to grant me these 2 good trades? [n Conclusion: The above highlights the fact that while trading in Options, observing the price of the underlying when in momentum is essential and as soon as the trade is on, the exit plan should be in place. This can be done either by placing an SL order or a target order. I keep these levels in mind and exit as and when either of these are approached. When in a bull market, when a price retraces back to a support area, a good trading opportunity appears as in the case explained above. Taking a re-entry at the same or around the same price level is easier when there is already a profit cushion from the earlier trades so the not only the mental state is stable and positive, but the confidence while pressing key is also at the required level. Please let me know if this helps and if you would like me to share some of my trades with you and I will do so whenever possible. As you can see from the chart, the trades mentioned above were taken a few days ago before HDFC BANK tested lower levels. Happy Money Making! Umesh 18-9-21 Note - I am not a SEBI Regd analyst and the views expressed here are purely for educational and informational purposes only. Please perform Due Diligence at your end before taking any trades as only you know how to manage your money.
NSE:HDFCBANK
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
2
#banknifty view for 16th Aug'21 #banknifty view for 16th Aug'21 Excellent Weekly Closing above 36,000 at 36,169.35, bulls are in full control. Do you see #banknifty weak? No, trading above SDMA (5/10/20/50/100) and all trend & momentum oscillators are in buy mode. What do I do, go long or go short? I don't see any weakness in the market until 35,531 is breached. Till that time, its buy-in dips the market for higher targets. Do I get a shorting opportunity at higher levels? Yes, might be close to 36,760 to 36,983 areas, with an SL for 200 points. Where do you see major support for BankNifty ? 35,937 / 35,703 / 35,531 Where do you see major resistance for BankNifty ? 36,446 / 36,584 / 36,760 / 36,851 /36,983 DZ:- 36,089 On 4 hour time frame:- 50% & 61% projection is placed at 36,905 & 37,563 which may or may not be achieved. E.g. One of the important DP is the weekly low, if the weekly low is broken, then only you will be short else you won't. John Maynard Keynes said, “the markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” So be cautious and flexible as market conditions evolve. Always trade what you see, never trade what you feel. Make this a habit, you won't be requiring any seminar, webinar, or mentor, you will be self-sufficient. Regards, SG
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by subhagghosh
22
#banknifty view for 12th Aug'21 #expiry#banknifty view for 12th Aug'21 #expiry Do you see #banknifty weak? No, BN at 35,806 is trading above the majority of SDMA (10/20/50/100) and 5 SDMA is 35,903, and the majority of momentum & trend oscillators are in buy mode. What do I do, go long or go short? I don't see any weakness in the market until 34,861 is breached. Till that time, its buy-in dips the market for higher targets. Do I get a shorting opportunity at higher levels? Yes, might be close to 36,600 to 37,900 areas Where do you see major support for BankNifty ? 35,211 / 35,404 / 35,596 Where do you see major resistance for BankNifty ? 36,372 / 36,631 / 36,891 DZ:- 35,900 On 4 hour time frame:- 50% & 61% projection is placed at 36,905 & 37,563 which may or may not be achieved. E.g. One of the important DP is the weekly low, if the weekly low is broken, then only you will be short else you won't. John Maynard Keynes said, “the markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” So be cautious and flexible as market conditions evolve. Always trade what you see, never trade what you feel. Make this a habit, you won't be requiring any seminar, webinar, or mentor, you will be self-sufficient. Regards, SG
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by subhagghosh
12
#banknifty analysis for 11th Aug'2021What do I see? #banknifty high 36,317 and price is trading above all DMA (5/10/20/50/100) & important pivots (around 35,933 to 35,957). Wave 4 marked in the chart competes at 35,612 or we are in Wave 5 which has min targets of 36,414 & 36,914 on the upside, is still a question. OI data turned negative, do I short here? No, OI data keeps changing based on positions, don't read much into it until it's an expiry day. Should I go long or short? No, when the price is above MA & pivots, why take contra trade. Should I go long? Yes, buy-in dips have to be the strategy till the 35,200 area holds. Should I chase up trades on the upside? You can, but the risk to reward is not in favor as compare to buy in dips. Where should I short? Good Question, might be around 36,400 to 36,500 area with 75 point SL or at 36,900 to 37,100 levels. Note:- If 36,500 holds, then we have 500 more points on the upside, blind shorting won't help, look for reversal signals. #banknifty Regards, SG
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by subhagghosh
12
#banknifty view for 9th Aug to 13th Aug'21#banknifty view for 9th Aug to 13th Aug'21 #banknifty 35,809 weekly closing is strongest after 15th Mar'21 almost after 4 month. All Daily Moving Averages, Momentum & Trend Oscillators are in buy mode:- Period Simple MA5 35517.90 Buy MA10 35114.54 Buy MA20 35181.18 Buy MA50 35133.42 Buy MA100 34162.39 Buy MA200 32632.53 Buy The majority of pivot points are around 34,870. On technical indicators side, it's a buy until 35,180 holds. On price action analysis:- On 4 hour time frame:- Minimum 38% Fibonacci Projection for wave is nearly achieved after break above 35,985. Next 50% & 61% projection is placed at 36,905 & 37,563 which may or may not be achieved. On 15 min time frame:- We have completed wave 3 and in Wave 4 - Can be anything 35,211 / 35,404 / 35,596, the price might reverse from GAP 35,238 - 35,313 and move up for 36,250 area. How to trade? Below 34,700 the price might try to fill up the gap & from there you can expect the next up move above 36,000. E.g. One of the important DP is the weekly low, if the weekly low is broken, then only you will be short else you won't. John Maynard Keynes said, “the markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” So be cautious and flexible as market conditions evolve. Always trade what you see, never trade what you feel. Make this a habit, you won't be requiring any seminar, webinar, or mentor, you will be self-sufficient. Regards, SG
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by subhagghosh
43
Bank Nifty 12-7-2021Bank Nifty can be a little bearish which may have an impact on Nifty also but same as nifty it will consolidate between the specified regions. There will be no more particular breakouts. So you can have a short strangle or you can sell a call or buy a put near the specified resistance zone. Or you can buy a call and sell a put near the support zone. Overall as I analyzed before that the Bank Nifty is forming an ascending triangle chart pattern. So overall momentum is still bullish and you can also buy a future of Bank Nifty in this dip. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . *Disclaimer*- This is just an analysis of the data on the basis of technical factors such as chart patterns, candlestick patterns, trend line , option chain data, etc,. Stock Market or Trading in any type of market is subject to high financial risk. You should see this idea as just an analysis. You are not obliged to follow my instructions. You will be responsible for all types gains or loses in the market.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by vashishthviraaj