Pansari Developers ltdpansari jackpot share
target - 250
entry - 210
stop loss - 190
time frame - weeks
technicals - bullish
this is not any financial advise
Optionsstrategies
Option Trading with Option chainOption chains provide specific data related to options contracts, including strike prices, expiration dates, implied volatility, and open interest. Traders use this data to construct options strategies, manage risk, and profit from price movements in the underlying asset.
Top options trading strategies
Covered call. A covered call is a popular options strategy where you own a stock and simultaneously sell a call option on the same stock. ...
Married put. ...
Bull call spread. ...
Bear put spread. ...
Protective collar. ...
Long straddle. ...
Long strangle. ...
Long call butterfly spread.
Advanced Option TradingWhen options are better. Options can be a better choice when you want to limit risk to a certain amount. Options can allow you to earn a stock-like return while investing less money, so they can be a way to limit your risk within certain bounds. Options can be a useful strategy when you're an advanced investor.
Yes, profits from intraday trading are considered business income and taxed according to your income tax slab. How is intraday trading taxed? Intraday trading profits are treated as short-term capital gains, added to taxable income, and taxed based on applicable slab rates.
Database Trading Options chain can be defined as the listing of all option contracts. It comes with two different sections: call and put. A call option means a contract that gives you the right but does not give you the obligation to buy an underlying asset at a particular price and within the option's expiration date.
In all, it is not gambling but is a type of speculation hence a government employee and PSU servants are not allowed to trade in options.
Options Trading Strategies on Budget Day 2025A Comprehensive Guide on Nifty, Niftybank, and Sensex Options
Introduction
Trading options on Union Budget day can be an exhilarating yet challenging endeavour. The Indian stock market sees significant volatility on this day, influenced by the budget announcements made by the Finance Minister. This guide will provide insights into trading options on the three major indices in the Indian markets: Nifty, Nifty Bank, and Sensex. We will also analyse the past data of these indices on budget days and examine how India VIX have fluctuated during these days. Based on this data we will deploy 4 delta neutral strategies and see how these strategies have performed on the budget days for all the 3 indices. The basic idea of this study is to find out the optimal strategy that can be deployed on budget day. Also please note since Sensex is a new instrument for weekly options data for the strategies is only available for 2024
Understanding the Major Indices
• Nifty: The Nifty 50 index, representing 50 of the largest companies listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE).
• Niftybank: The Nifty Bank index, comprising the most liquid and large capitalized Indian banking stocks.
• Sensex: The Sensex or BSE 30 index, representing 30 of the largest and most actively traded stocks on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE).
Historical Performance on Union Budget Days
To make informed trading decisions, it is essential to analyse how these indices have performed on budget days over the past decade. The following tables provide detailed data on the indices' performance, including values for Open, High, Low, Close, and percentage changes from Open to Close and High to Low. Additionally, the tables include India VIX movement throughout the day.
Analysing Implied Volatility and India VIX
On Union Budget day, implied volatility and the India VIX are crucial indicators to watch. Typically, an IV crush occurs post the Finance Minister's speech, leading to a significant drop in volatility. This section will explore these trends based on historical data and provide insights into how traders can capitalize on these movements.
PS: The IV considered here will be the ATM Straddle IV
Options Trading Strategies
Although multiple options strategies can be deployed on budget day we are going to consider deploying a Directional and a Non-Directional Straddle with protective hedges. We will compare the strategies to see which strategy has given the best back testing performance and we will compare the performance of these strategies for all indices Nifty, Bank Nifty and Sensex.
Short Straddles using Wait & Trade
A conventional short straddle involves selling an ATM call and an ATM put option. However instead of entering both the legs at once we are going to perform a wait and trade directional straddle. This means that we will enter the call leg or the put leg only when the premium falls below 5%. We will take the reference time of entry as 9:20 am and exit time for the strategy will be 3:25 pm. We will check the reference price of both the calls and put options at 9:20 am for the ATM Straddle strike price. Let us say the Nifty on budget day is trading at 22500 then we will check the premium of the 22500 CE and 22500 PE and note down these prices. Let us say both are trading close Rs 100 each then we will enter only when the price of those options goes below Rs 95 implying that there is some direction in the market. So we will enter only that leg and avoid executing the other leg. If the market takes a direction we are bound to profit from the leg that has been executed. If the market moves up first and then down then it is likely that both the legs will get executed. The stop loss on the individual legs will be 70% each. One can execute this simple strategy via an algo execution platform.
Pros: This strategy profits from the decrease in implied volatility and can be profitable if the market remains sideways or directional.
Cons: This strategy will tend to loose money in a V-shape or U-shape market since there is a possibility of both stop losses triggering.
Iron Butterfly
An Iron Butterfly strategy involves selling an ATM straddle and buying protective wings (an OTM call and an OTM put) to limit risk. The offset units will be purely selected on the basis of the breakeven points of the straddle to keep it simple. This strategy is limited risk limited reward strategy. We will execute this strategy on all indices at 9:20 am and exit at 3:25 pm on all budget days.
Pros: On budget days the usual tendency of the market is to make some extreme movements but tend to close flat or closer to the open. If on the budget day the market tends to behave in this manner then the strategy turns out to be a high profitable strategy.
Cons: On budget day if the market becomes extremely directional then this strategy will end in a limited loss
Back tested Results
The back tested performance of short straddles and Iron Butterfly on Nifty, Nifty Bank, and Sensex indices are summarized in the following tables. These tables will help traders understand the potential profitability and risks associated with each strategy. For some strategies there is lack of back tested data available, so it is denoted as NA in the column of the strategy name
Note: All the strategies deployed as a part of this exercise are time based straddles. To optimize the performance of these strategies one can look at ATM straddle charts and can add some technical indicators such as super trend, vwap or moving averages to plan precision entries and exits for these strategies. The usage of these will definitely help increase the probability of the trade.
Please find the link below for your reference with all the data
Historical Data Indices.xlsx
The software used for backtesting the strategies in StockMock.
Conclusion
Budget week brings volatility; traders should employ delta neutral strategies to benefit from price fluctuations and implied volatility changes
Some of the key highlights of all budget days:
1. Budget week is highly volatile, with significant price movements expected.
2. Historical analysis shows an average 2-2.5% movement from high to low on budget days.
3. Implied volatility typically decreases around 11 AM on budget day.
4. Delta neutral strategies are recommended for traders lacking directional clarity.
5. Various strategies like straddles, strangles, and iron condors can be employed.
6. One should use algo platforms to automate executions since markets will tend to move very fast and in such situations, execution becomes extremely critical
7. Also do your own study by backtesting, forward testing and only then deploy your strategy in the live market
Hope you found the above article useful in helping you to prepare yourself in advance for Budget Day. All the best!
Gold prices rally as market awaits Fed's next moveGold (XAU/USD) continued its weekly uptrend on Thursday, marking its third consecutive day of gains. The precious metal surged past $2,760 per troy ounce for the first time since early November, fueled by lingering uncertainty surrounding announcements from President Trump, particularly on tariffs.
The US Dollar (USD) regained some of its recently lost appeal, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) rebounding and moving away from multi-week lows. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields showed mixed movements across different maturities.
On the political front, President Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on the European Union, Canada, and Mexico and disclosed that his administration is considering a 10% tariff on imports from China. He justified this move as a response to fentanyl being smuggled into the United States from China via Mexico and Canada.
Economic and Policy Implications for Gold
While gold is traditionally considered a hedge against inflation, analysts caution that Trump's tariff policies could complicate its outlook. If the tariffs spur inflation, the Federal Reserve (Fed) may be compelled to keep interest rates higher for longer, reducing gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset in a high-rate environment.
What's Next for Gold?
Looking ahead, market focus will likely remain on developments from the White House, especially during a week with few major economic data releases. Investors are also gearing up for the Fed meeting on January 28–29, where interest rates are expected to remain within the 4.25%-4.50% range.
Amid escalating political uncertainty and central bank decisions, gold remains a crucial asset to monitor, with potential for further volatility.
Technical Analysis of Gold Prices
A close look at the 4-hour technical chart reveals a persistent uptrend, as gold has broken above the resistance line of its ascending wedge channel. This resistance is now acting as a new support level, indicating the potential for further upside momentum. Technically, a swift breakout above $2,760 and consolidation above $2,763 would likely accelerate the rally. Conversely, if gold breaches its support, it could retest lower levels, such as the $2,723 zone (aligned with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level), before resuming its long-term bullish trend.
Trading Strategy
For now, a buying strategy remains favorable. However, always set your Take Profit (TP) and Stop Loss (SL) levels to safeguard your account and mitigate risk. As market conditions evolve, disciplined risk management will be your best ally.
EURUSD: Consolidating above the descending channel!Dear friends,
The Euro (EUR) extended its recovery against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, slightly climbing above the 1.0400 level as the greenback faced significant pressure. In fact, the US Dollar Index (DXY) struggled amidst a broad risk-on sentiment as investors analyzed President Trump's inaugural message for potential policy implications.
Looking at the technical chart, EUR/USD shows signs of breaking out of its descending channel on the 4-hour timeframe, signaling a shift in momentum. The price is trading above both the 34-period and 89-period exponential moving averages (EMAs), indicating bullish strength. However, the current area of 1.0400–1.0450 may serve as resistance, with sellers likely stepping in. A pullback to test the breakout zone or the EMA support is reasonable before a higher move unfolds. Key support lies near the 1.0300 mark, while a push above 1.0450 could pave the way toward 1.0500 and beyond.
Learn option in trading If you buy an options contract, it grants you the right but not the obligation to buy or sell an underlying asset at a set price on or before a certain date. A call option gives the holder the right to buy a stock, and a put option gives the holder the right to sell a stock.
Now, the burning question on everyone's mind – how long does it take to learn options trading? Well, it really depends on how much time and effort you're willing to put in. Some people might be able to pick it up in a few weeks, while others might take months or even years to fully grasp the concepts.
Database TradingEvery trader and investor asks, “Where is the overall market (or a specific security price) headed?” Several methodologies, intensive calculations, and analytical tools are used to predict the next direction of the overall market or of a specific security. Options market data can provide meaningful insights on the price movements of the underlying security. We look at how specific data points pertaining to options market can be used to predict future direction.
Typically a trading dataset will provide information about trades that are made over the course of the day. This includes various different details about the trades, such as the bid, bid size and ask size. This information is known as quote data.
Option And Data Base Trading OptionMetrics provides the highest quality and most comprehensive historical options data on the market today. Leading investment and academic institutions worldwide rely on the accuracy of our options data to measure volatility, assess risk, and analyze investment strategies.
By analysing the information provided in the option chain, traders can identify potential trading opportunities and make informed decisions about buying or selling options contracts. Option chains are used by traders to analyse and evaluate the market's expectations of an asset's future price movements.
Entry at SupportThis trade is based on Exponential Moving Average (9 &15) considered in the Weekly Time Frame.
A trade can start at the current level (Entry between 795 to 780). Maximum risk to be considered is 5% to 6%. However a strong Candle closing below 740 level will indicate EXIT from the trade.
The stock can show upward movement as below:
1) 1st Target is 20% from current level
2) 2nd Target is 30% from current level
3) 4th Target is 50% from current level .
**All targets to be observed in Weekly time frame**
EUR/USD Technical and Fundamental OutlookAs the week comes to a close, EUR/USD is trading around 1.0575, maintaining its bullish momentum. The pair is moving within an ascending wedge pattern, supported by the EMA 34 and EMA 89, which underscores a steady upward trajectory.
From a technical standpoint, the price is holding near the upper boundary of the wedge, with immediate resistance seen at 1.0585. A breakout above this level could pave the way for further upside, targeting the next significant level around 1.0620. This structure signals a potential continuation of the bullish trend if key resistance levels are breached.
On the fundamental side, the current uptrend is bolstered by positive sentiment surrounding data from the Eurozone and a weakening demand for the US Dollar. These factors are creating a supportive environment for the Euro, encouraging sustained buying pressure in the pair.
Looking ahead, traders should closely monitor the wedge breakout, as it could provide a clearer signal for the pair's trajectory into next week. Whether EUR/USD extends its gains or faces rejection at resistance will largely depend on both technical confirmations and evolving market fundamentals.
GBPUSD todayThe GBP/USD pair remains in a tight range, hovering just below the mid-1.2700s during Friday’s session, as it consolidates its recent three-day rally. This upward movement propelled the pair to its highest level in over three weeks during the previous day. However, traders appear cautious, refraining from placing significant bets ahead of the highly anticipated U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, which is set to be released later today.
The NFP data, a critical barometer for the U.S. labor market, will be closely analyzed for clues regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory. Market participants are eager to see how the data aligns with the Fed’s policy outlook ahead of its December meeting. The report is expected to play a pivotal role in shaping near-term sentiment around the U.S. Dollar (USD) and could provide fresh directional impetus for the GBP/USD pair.
Gold Weakens Further as Market Awaits Fresh CatalystsGood morning, traders! In the early hours of Friday's trading session, gold continues to weaken, losing over 12 pips.
This decline reflects a temporary pause from bullish investors as they seek new drivers for upward momentum. From a technical perspective, the chart shows that while long-term bullish momentum remains intact, the current pullback appears to be nearing its conclusion. Support is forming around the $2,566 zone, followed by $2,630.
In the short term, gold may experience further declines as the market awaits directional clarity from news expected later in the day. On the other hand, the long-term bullish trend remains a favored bet, with key upside targets marked clearly on the chart.
Happy trading, and may your trades be profitable! Don’t forget to leave a like and share your thoughts about the outlook for this precious metal. Cheers!
EUR/USD: Bearish Pressure IncreasesEUR/USD marked its second consecutive day of gains, extending its recent breakout above the 1.0500 level in response to the US Dollar's uncertain stance ahead of key US data releases later this week.
The 4-hour chart indicates that technical risks remain tilted to the downside, as the pair continues trading below all its moving averages. These averages maintain a bearish slope, creating dynamic resistance around the 1.0560 level. Meanwhile, technical indicators remain within negative territory, lacking clear directional strength.
In the short term, and according to the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD appears poised to extend its decline. The pair is trading below the bearish-moving averages, encountering sellers near the EMA 34 and 89 levels. Finally, technical indicators are neutral-to-bearish, positioned below their midlines, supporting the extension of the downtrend without providing a definitive confirmation.
Support levels: 1.0465, 1.0420, 1.0370
Resistance levels: 1.0560, 1.0625, 1.0660
XAUUSD todayHello dear friends, it's Samson here!
Gold prices continue to consolidate within a familiar range, as the market awaits a fresh catalyst to drive the next decisive move. What’s in store for gold, and what scenarios could unfold?
At the moment, sellers have hit the pause button, keeping an eye on key events like Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks, U.S. employment data, and the all-important CPI report. These indicators will shape expectations for the Fed's policy outlook. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are currently pricing in a 74% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting. However, nothing is set in stone, and until clear signals emerge, the market may remain locked in consolidation mode.
On the technical front, gold could build bullish momentum to test significant resistance levels amid favorable news. However, if prices break below the critical support at 2636 and sustain that position, a bearish wave could gain traction sooner than anticipated.
This is a pivotal moment for XAUUSD, as the market balances between anticipation and action. What’s your take on the current setup? Let’s discuss your thoughts, forecasts, or any questions you have—together, we can navigate these shifting dynamics!
EUR/USD: Bearish Signals Strengthen Near Key ResistanceWhen observing the 4-hour chart, we can see that the EUR/USD pair is hovering near a strong resistance zone (marked in red). This is a region where selling pressure has significantly increased during previous trading sessions, making it difficult for the price to break out. In this context, the signals for a potential bearish trend are becoming increasingly evident.
One notable factor is the position of the EMA 34 and EMA 89 lines. With the price trading below both moving averages, they are acting as dynamic resistance levels, pushing the price lower each time it attempts to recover. This further reinforces the view that selling pressure continues to dominate the current market.
Additionally, the previous downside gap has yet to be filled, which is often a technical indication that bearish pressure remains. As the price approaches the resistance zone of 1.0550 - 1.0560, the likelihood of rejection from this level is high, especially in the absence of strong buying momentum.
If the price fails to break through this resistance zone, the possibility of a decline to lower support levels opens up. The nearest support is located at 1.0487, but a more prominent target lies in the 1.0420 - 1.0400 range. This is a critical support zone that could serve as a stopping point if the bearish trend continues.
Based on this analysis, a bearish trading strategy should be approached with caution. Traders may consider entering a sell position around the 1.0550 - 1.0560 resistance zone, with take-profit targets at 1.0480 and 1.0420, respectively. A prudent stop-loss level would be above the resistance zone, around 1.0575, to minimize risk.
Overall, the market is currently leaning toward a bearish outlook, but waiting for clear reactions at the resistance zone is crucial to ensure trades are executed at optimal levels. This approach provides greater security in a market that remains potentially volatile.
GBP/USD: At a Crossroads - Will the Bears Take Over?Hello, brilliant traders!
What’s your take on the current trend of GBP/USD? Let me break it down for you with a detailed analysis on the daily timeframe to give you a broader perspective.
At the moment, GBP/USD remains firmly in a long-term downtrend, trading around the 1.269 level. This aligns perfectly with signals from the EMA 34 and EMA 89, both indicating a potential reversal on the horizon. It's clear that key technical levels are coming into play, demanding the market’s full attention.
Following the recent corrective rally, GBP/USD appears poised to test resistance near the 1.287 level. This could be a prime opportunity for sellers to step in and drive the pair lower, especially given the prevailing dominance of the long-term bearish trend. The chart analysis I’ve shared illustrates this outlook in more detail.
Looking ahead, fundamental factors could further shape the direction of this pair. Hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and robust U.S. economic data may pile additional pressure on GBP/USD, possibly pushing it below the critical 1.225 support level. On the flip side, a dovish tone from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey could cap any upward moves, leaving the pair vulnerable to further downside action.
The market is at a pivotal point, and I’d love to hear your thoughts on GBP/USD! Share your insights in the comments below, and let’s discuss where we think this pair is headed next.
Wishing you smart trading and plenty of opportunities ahead!
Update XAUUSDSpot gold prices continue to rise as the US dollar weakens, making it more affordable for holders of other currencies to purchase gold.
Meanwhile, crude oil prices unexpectedly surged to $70 per barrel, adding upward momentum to gold’s price trend.
Another contributing factor is the announcement of martial law in South Korea. This has sparked concerns among financial investors about potential instability in the country, which could impact commodity prices and international currency markets. Consequently, many have increased their gold purchases as a safe-haven asset. These factors are fueling gold prices to climb further today.
Option Database TradingWhen you trade options, you're essentially placing a bet on if a stock will decrease, increase or remain the same in value; how much it will deviate from its current price; and in what time those changes will occur. Based on those parameters, you can choose to enter into a contract to buy or sell a company's stock.
When options are better. Options can be a better choice when you want to limit risk to a certain amount. Options can allow you to earn a stock-like return while investing less money, so they can be a way to limit your risk within certain bounds. Options can be a useful strategy when you're an advanced investor.
Lecher for Option TraderEven if you are a beginner, options trading can be a good call. However, make sure you have an online broker to help you and a margin account ready. When your options trading is approved, the orders can be entered to trade these options.
For instance, consider buying a call option for 100 shares of Company X at a strike price of Rs. 110, with an expiry on December 1. If, on December 1, Company X shares trade above Rs. 110, you can exercise the option, buying shares at a lower price to profit from the market price.
GOLD--> The bears are gaining strength! Next target: 2600OANDA:XAUUSD is declining after a false breakout of the resistance range. The fundamental backdrop is mixed and still does not allow for a clear medium- and long-term strategy to be formed. But!...
Trump's tariff policy and rising geopolitical tensions are influencing metal prices. Against the backdrop of a strengthening dollar and expectations of a Fed rate cut, gold prices are declining and confirming the market's structure.
Looking ahead, all eyes will be on U.S. employment data as the country will release multiple job-related figures ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.
From a technical standpoint, we have a trend to watch after leaving the rising channel support and the 2636 area, reflecting the prevailing bearish sentiment.
A breakout below 2636 could trigger aggressive selling against the backdrop of a newly strengthened dollar. However, the possibility of a retest of the area of interest before continuing the downward trend cannot be ruled out. Gold prices are expected to decline and reach levels of 2610 and 2596, respectively.
GBP/USD Outlook: Navigating the Approaching ReversalHello dear readers,
Today, let's delve into a detailed analysis of the GBP/USD chart to identify key points that might influence our investment decisions in the coming period. The current chart presents some intriguing technical signals that we should monitor closely.
Overall Assessment:
The 4-hour chart for GBP/USD is showing an upward trend, but the price is currently approaching a significant resistance area. This is a point where many traders might consider taking profits, which could introduce selling pressure at these higher levels.
EMA Lines and Current Signals:
The price is trading between the EMA 34 and EMA 89, with the EMA 34 approaching from below and possibly providing support if prices start to decline. The intersection of these EMAs could be a crucial signal for identifying a potential change in trend.
Potential for Reversal:
As the price nears this strong resistance zone, there is a possibility that it will test and possibly retreat from this level. If this occurs, we might see the price execute a pullback towards the nearest support line, formed by the ascending black trendline.
Predictions and Strategy:
If the price fails below the resistance and the EMA 34 does not hold as support, we could witness a more substantial price drop. The next target could be the lower support level of the ascending channel, where the price may find momentum for a recovery.
Personal Insight:
Given the current scenario, I would advise investors to closely watch the current resistance area and prepare for the possibility that the price could decline after touching this zone. Stop-loss orders should be cautiously placed to protect capital from potential volatility. For those looking to capitalize on a downward trend, waiting for a reversal confirmation before placing sell orders could be a prudent strategy.
Wishing all our readers successful trading and stay tuned to market developments to seize beneficial opportunities.
