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GBPUSD: The risk of a price drop lurksThe GBP/USD exchange rate is hovering around 1.2680 on Wednesday as markets seek new impetus from the Federal Reserve (Fed) as investors gradually shy away from high-interest rate cut bets. Data on US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) inflation and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index will be released this week. Data from the United Kingdom remains sparse this week, with the market focusing on important figures to update expectations of interest rate cuts by the Fed. As a result, GBPUSD is struggling to rise, with both short-term and medium-term corrections indicating a downward trend. The currency pair has already broken below the support level of 1.267. In the event that the next support level at 1.265 is breached, the possibility of a decline below 1.262 is entirely plausible as there will be no significant support points to prop up GBPUSD.
Short
by RKarina
USDJPY: SELL OR BUY?Hello dear friends! Today, USDJPY continues to be limited below the resistance level of 150.750 in the early trading hours of the new week. This currency pair is declining due to the decrease in US Treasury bond yields, amid cautiousness and concerns about inflation data in the United States. However, the recent appreciation of the US dollar may limit the downside of USD/JPY as long as the support level of 149.700 is well maintained, thus the possibility of a recovery for USDJPY is still considered high.
by RKarina
EURUSD - Stable trading above the psychological level of 1,080Hello everyone, let's discuss EURUSD today with RKarina! Currently, the EURUSD currency pair is trading quite calmly and there haven't been many price changes, with trading levels around 1.083 USD from the beginning of the week until now. Looking at the prospects from today's short-term analysis chart: This currency pair has experienced a pullback above the 0.5 - 0.618 Fibonacci level, indicating that the selling side seems to have an advantage during this period. However, it is still operating weakly as the price continues to hover and align with the two EMA lines, namely the 34 and 89. If everything goes well and meets expectations, after a slight sideways movement, this currency pair will aim for the next target at the resistance level of 1.086. Let's wait and see the results!
Long
by RKarina
Xauusd todayHey everyone, let's delve into the current gold prices! During the previous trading session, the price of gold remained steady, ranging from $2022 to $2025. Investors are eagerly awaiting fresh economic data from the United States in order to assess the future direction of interest rates as determined by the Federal Reserve (Fed). At the moment, gold finds itself in a temporary stalemate, torn between expectations regarding interest rates and the demand for a safe haven amidst geopolitical tensions. The latest minutes from the Fed's policy meeting have revealed a general concern among policymakers regarding the risks associated with premature interest rate cuts, which has exerted significant pressure on gold. In my opinion, there is a possibility that gold prices could rise to a range of $2040 - $2042 before experiencing a correction if it reaches the limit of its downward trend.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by RKarina
2
Gold price today: Trading is quietHello everyone, gold traded relatively calmly today at a high level after breaking out of the previous downtrend. Today, the price of gold was supported by the decline in US Treasury bond yields. As a result, the US dollar (USD) weakened as the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks this currency against six other currencies, fell by 0.05%. From the analysis chart: Gold is trading sideways as XAU/USD has been unable to surpass the psychological resistance level of $2,035 for the past 12 days. However, the upward trend is still intact, and if buyers reclaim the $2,035 level, it could open up an opportunity to challenge the psychological level of $2,050.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by RKarina
GBP/USD: maintain good growth rateThe GBP/USD pair continues its upward momentum below the psychological barrier of 1.2700 in the early Asian trading session on Tuesday. The FOMC minutes indicated that the Fed has reaffirmed its data-dependent approach, leading to a more dovish outlook. This has weighed on the US Dollar (USD) and created a favorable environment for this currency pair. At the time of writing, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2685, up 0.02% for the day. My expectation is that the price will continue to rise after finding support at the 34 and 89 EMA levels.
by RKarina
Gold price today February 27: Great leap forward?Dear beloved friends, yesterday's gold trading session was relatively calm with no significant fluctuations. At present, the price is still hovering around $2033 and maintaining support at $2025. In the short and medium term, the upward momentum of gold is still highly regarded. From today's chart, the two main targets for buyers are $2037 and $2041. Regarding predictions, the market is awaiting the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report. This crucial inflation data is expected to provide investors with further clues about the future direction of interest rates by the Federal Reserve. The report is scheduled to be released on Thursday, with a projected monthly increase of 0.4%. If the PCE data exceeds expectations, gold prices may decline. However, this precious metal is still expected to remain above $2000 per ounce.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by RKarina
XAUUSDHello dear colleagues, what do you think the closing price of gold will be today? Last night, the price of gold decreased despite the sharp decline in the US dollar. Normally, a weaker US dollar would support an increase in the price of gold. However, in the last session, it defied market norms with a decline in the USD due to forecasts showing durable goods orders in the US dropping from 0% in the previous month to -4.7% in January, and core durable goods orders falling from 0.6% to 0.2%. Despite gloomy economic forecasts, the stock market remains surprisingly optimistic. Globally, US and Japanese stocks have been continuously setting new records at the beginning of this year. With a 7% increase since the end of 2023, money is shifting from traditional safe havens like gold to stocks, potentially setting the stage for a recovery in the price of gold.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by RKarina
XAUUSD: price increase but not sure yet!Hello traders, what do you think about GOLD? The fear of risk has driven the demand for US government bonds, contributing to the prolonged weakness of US Treasury bond yields across the yield curve. The slight decrease in US Treasury bond yields helps limit the adjustment of Gold prices. In the coming days, the momentum of the US Dollar and US Treasury bond yields, along with the risk sentiment, will impact Gold price action as traders consider the US New Home Sales data for trading cues. Gold is supported and has been growing as it touches the bottom of a descending channel. It is expected to decrease back to the channel bottom after reaching the resistance zone.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by RKarina
XAUUSD: Breakout on last day of tradingDear friends, what are your thoughts on gold after a challenging week? Let's also strategize for the upcoming week. Looking back at the recent period, the price of gold has mainly been fluctuating around the range of $2022 to $2028, despite some news affecting gold, but not significantly. Until last Friday afternoon, gold experienced a significant volatility, with prices dropping straight to $2016 and then rebounding strongly to reach $2041. In the context of some officials from the Federal Reserve stating that they are not in a hurry to lower interest rates due to high inflation, financial investors are expecting a rate cut by the Fed in June 2024. As a result, the US dollar weakened against many other currencies, boosting today's gold prices. Currently, the precious metal has stabilized at around $2035, making this weakness a corrective wave after breaking through $2033. It is expected that next week, gold will continue to decline further towards the range of $2031 and $2028, as indicated by Fibonacci before the price resumes its upward trend.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by RKarina
EURUSD: SELL?The EUR/USD pair is trading with a softer tone as the US dollar (USD) modestly rebounds in early Asian trading on Monday. The market will be paying attention to the US PCE inflation data for January this week, which could cause some volatility. At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0818, down 0.01% on the day. With the possibility of forming a head and shoulders pattern and a bearish price, I expect that after the price receives support and increases to the specified level, it will decrease with the target specified on the chart.
Short
by RKarina
What's changed in the gold price this week?Hello everyone, RKarina is delighted to meet you all again. Let's discuss our strategy for the new week for XAUUSD! Currently, at the opening of the trading session, gold is moving quite steadily at around 2033 USD, with no change in direction compared to the last closing at 2035 USD. In terms of prospects: From a technical analysis perspective: the Bollinger Band indicates two notable levels to watch out for in the near future, with a peak at 2055 USD and a support level at 1990 USD. In terms of market news: The European Central Bank maintaining its stance on interest rate cuts and a significant allocation of the Euro could put pressure on the USD. This will have a positive impact on the price of gold, as the interest rate adjustment period is coming to an end and gold could increase to 2050 USD by the end of the week. What about you? What do you think will be the movement of gold? Will it continue to rise or fall?
OANDA:XAUUSD
by RKarina
EURUSD: End of blue translationHello dear readers, it's RKarina here again. Currently, EURUSD has temporarily closed its trading activities and halted at the level of 1.081. It can be observed that the past week was a profitable trading week for buyers as the price was consistently supported and moved up from the newly established support level at 1.070. As a result, the risk sentiment has improved, making it difficult for the USD to regain strength and thereby creating some foundation and support for EURUSD. RKarina expects that this currency pair will continue to increase in price in the near future, aiming for the level of 1.091 as indicated by Fibonacci as a corrective phase following the retreat from the first marked wave. What are your thoughts on the future trend of EURUSD?
by RKarina
EURUSDHello everyone, today EURUSD has risen higher on Thursday, testing the highest bid price since early February before returning to the 1.0800 area after the European and US Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data came in slightly lower or contrary to expectations. With the ability to create DOW from the chart using Fibonacci retracement levels, the upward movement will soon reach resistance levels at 1.0865 and 1.0918, followed by a rapid decline with an expected touch level of 1.618, which is 1.0418. What about you, do you agree with me?
Short
by RKarina
GBPUSDHello everyone, it's RKarina here again. Overall, GBPUSD continues to trade in an upward trend. So, what factors are driving this upward momentum? Today, the GBP/USD pair achieved modest gains above the 1.2600 level in the early Asian trading hours on Friday. The decline of the US Dollar provided some support for the major currency pair. Currently, GBPUSD is operating near the resistance level of 1.2700, with dynamic support around 1.2680 before 1.2650-1.2660. However, to ensure the safety of your trades, we have recommended a significant support zone around this area, which also coincides with continuous price reaction. When reaching that entry point, we can prioritize buying with an expected increase of 1.3500 and 1.3800.
Long
by RKarina
FOMC: driving force to help Gold prices increase!GOLDEN INFORMATION: In Wednesday's Asian trading session, the price of gold (XAU/USD) experienced a slight decrease and moved away from its two-week high of around $2,048-$2,049 reached the previous day. This decline is attributed to investors adjusting their expectations regarding the pace and extent of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve due to strong economic data from the United States. As a result, the US Dollar (USD) remains strong, reaching its highest level since December 13 earlier this week, putting pressure on the value of gold. However, the recent decline in US Treasury bond yields may hinder strong betting on the USD by investors. This, along with concerns about geopolitical risks arising from tensions in the Middle East, could continue to support the demand for gold as a safe haven asset. Investors may also choose to be cautious and wait for the highly anticipated monetary policy meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) before taking any significant actions related to gold, which currently lacks yield. Personal opinion: The price chart according to technical analysis is supporting the Uptrend, the H1 frame is trading above the stable EMA, economic experts at today's FOMC meeting also support keeping or reducing interest rates and support gold's rise.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by RKarina
15 Feb ’24 — Nifty within kissing distance of a Bullish breakoutNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: “In the 63mts chart, see the encircled region — the strength of the green candles stands out prominently. This has given Nifty a total makeover, till yesterday we were neutral with a moderate bearish bias. Today we are still neutral but with a bullish bias — as the resistance of 21913 is much closer than the support of 21491.” 4mts chart Nifty has lived up to the expectation today, the momentum it gained yesterday post 14.07 was legitimate. Not only did Nifty hold its ground today but showed intent to take out the 21913 resistance. The open was right at that zone but we quickly lost a few points. The candle at 09.47 carried the hidden message that a breakout was in the cards. That single candle had a swing range of 73 points. Even though we did not do anything unusual till 13.31 - the options premium was going crazy. One mistake I made was to switch to the next-weekly instead of the current one as I felt a breakout would happen post 3 PM. The break came early at 13.35 and what it did was shoot up the CE premiums, nothing unusual in that. But the PEs were not dropping in value. So on one side, my short CEs were trading in deep RED whereas the short PEs were not going into green. Meanwhile, the breakout did not prove successful - but it definitely woke up the bulls. Almost all the top 8 components were reacting positively to this break. The final close was right near the 21913 SR zone. Over the last week, Nifty rose 166 points ~ 0.76% and if you notice the 63-minute time frame - it has formed a triple bottom-like formation on a descending trendline. Since Nifty already retraced back to the resistance level - we assume it is ready for the next leg of outperformance. The first thing it has to make sure tomorrow is to defend the 21913 levels - if it falls below that, the bullish breakout will not pick up pace. A gap-up is ideal as it will quickly tip the balance to the Bulls as short sellers will have to run for cover. We wish to change the status from neutral to bullish only if we get a 63mts candle above the 21913 resistance line. 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
13 Feb ’24 — Even after gaining 127pts, we are still neutral ➡️Nifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: “For tomorrow we wish to keep our eyes open for any bearish clues although we wish to stay neutral to start with. As always, we prefer BankNifty to make its move first and then Nifty50 will align itself to that direction.” 4mts chart We really thought the open may be flat and we would start falling, but to our surprise, we hit a session low of 21543 and then started climbing. By 11:11 Nifty had climbed an impressive 223 points ~ 1.04%. The options premium were totally weird today, an equidistant PUT and CALL options were trading highly skewed to the PUT side. Since we had some strangles on, we noticed even a premium spread of 1:2 wherein 1 lot of PE had the premiums of 2 lots of CE. Skews like these usually do not happen without a reason, in hindsight the reason was that the upside was capped. The PUT options were rightly priced and CALL premiums were not spiking - indicating that Nifty may not rise further. But this made no sense if you looked at the chart between 10 to 11 AM. BankNifty proved to be a bigger disappointment today, despite gaining 620 points ~ 1.38% - it was unable to break the resistance. Just imagine, when was the last time an Index rallied greater than 1.3% and still had a bearish tone? NiftyIT had no plans of its own - it was jumping around from RED to GREEN for no reason whatsoever. On the 63mts chart, Nifty is still neutral with no clear indication of the next direction. BankNifty is bearish and the chances of Nifty going down may be higher due to that. The first target to break should be 21491 below which the bearish momentum will pick up an avalanche effect. 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram