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PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 27 JUN 2023BN opened at 43804 and then had a flattish price move till 13.00 after which it propelled forward like a rocket. Interestingly Finnifty's chart (which we will discuss shortly) had more thrust compared to BN & N50. The 470 pts rally we had from 13.05 to close was nothing short of remarkable. Initially the momentum was slow, but as soon as the short covering started we had a broad based rally. None of component stock closed in red today. SBIN up 1.62%, HDFCBK up 1.41%, AXIS up 1.32%, KOTAKBANK up 1.19%. 1hr TF If you remember from yesterday's research report, BN was almost completing a double bottom pattern at the 43404 level. The last leg of W was fading, until we had the break through today. What really happened today was the 44068 resistance was taken out, preceding that we had 2 strong green candles - most likely due to CE short covering. Final close is some 100pts above the SR zone of 44068 which means there is every possibility BN could defend it for the expiry tomorrow.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 26 JUN 2023BN opened gap up, but right at the opening itself we all anticipated that we are not going to have an up day today. The options flow gave me a bearish bias and was looking for opportunities to enter. The first swing till 10.50 where we had a drop of 222pts & then a retracement of 113pts looked healthy and almost filling all the checklist for the 2nd leg. Instead of making a lower low - the 2nd leg made an upmove to take out the retracement high. By this time the options premium was dead - indicating no more uncertainty ahead. SBIN & ICICIBANK gave ample support to BN today & prevented it from falling. Again the conviction of the bulls were quite strong. Between 15.00 to 15.05 BN made a quick surge of 105pts and then quickly lost it between 15.10 to 15.15 - might have taken out the stop losses of few option traders today. The way in which PE options reacted made me think the major participants would want BN to go up. 1hr TF The double bottom W pattern that formed with the bottom at 43404 is still intact. The upmove from 20th Jun to 22nd Jun was pretty weak that did not allow it to go past the resistance zone of 44068.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 21 JUN 2023Yesterday I said, " I will be a believer if we continue the green spell tomorrow also." - guess what Finnifty hit all time high today at 19660.1 at 13.55. This is partly due to the news flow in HDFC & HDFCBK (both are having good weightage in finnifty). This is the main reason it outperformed with gains of 0.68% whereas Nifty & Banknifty had gains of 0.21% each. Today proved to be a perfect day to deploy straddle on banknifty - the momentum to swing was low and open/close were quite nearby. I assume most of the traders would not have deployed it as we had some aggressive move last hour yesterday. Nifty50 on the other hand provided adequate volatility to drive up the options prices much better than BN. The period from 09.55 to 11.15 looked dangerous & I was looking for bearish trades. Again the strength of bulls outpaced the bears - we had a gradual recovery and closed near the high point of day. The biggest difference in trade today BN vs N50 was the volatility. BN was not at all interested in going up or down, whereas N50 had eyes to take out the ATH. Unfortunately we fell short today also. INFY & KOTAKBANK pulled the plug after 15.05 otherwise we should have seen history in the making! I personally think the HDFC-HDFCBK moves 1.63% & 1.75% were unusual and this should have broke the existing rhythm of BN's movement. I would like to see tomorrow's price action i.e. expiry trades too and then become a proper believer. One of the reason I am saying that is even with gains of 1.75%, hdfcbk could only move BN up 0.21%, there were many trades taken on the other banks to counter-balance the upmove in HDFCBK. I would like to see how it pans out tomorrow, esp after 14.00. --- 15mts is still sloping downwards indicating weakness. Its not an outright bearish view but somehow BN is not that excited with N50 going for new highs.  --- 1hr shows a converging pattern unless we breakdown from the 43402 levels & cross 43253 quickly. Currently what BN is lacking is momentum, only a downward move will give it strength to rally & break through!
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 20 JUN 23 + Finnifty--- How many of you were prepared for the last 1 hour move today, I assume 90% of traders would have anticipated it. The real wow moment would be if we get to see the unwinding tomorrow. At least till the 43528 levels. We added 331pts between 14.25 to close today, most of which were due to Nifty's resistance crossing or positional trade on Finnifty expiry. The truth is we will only get to know tomorrow. Banknifty's open was inline and the good news for the bear is we broke the swing low of 15th June. If you looked at the opening hour price action, banknifty was really showing signs of further selling, but it did not happen. Again we got saved by the crazy dip buyers, this is more evident in the Nifty50 chart. From 10.40 there was consistent buying in N50, but the buying momentum came to a halt near the resistance level of 18762. From 13.25 to 14.25 the pressure was building on N50 to break through the resistance - but we all knew it had to come via banknifty or finnifty. As Finnifty had expiry today, the job was simple - buy some bank stocks today and get the nifty to surge past the resistance. These big boys could really square off these purchases tomorrow & could make money both ways. The green candles from 15.00 to close is an indication of how Nifty50 surged once the resistance was breached. We literally ran out of time, otherwise we could have taken out the ATH today itself. --- 15mts TF is showing some unique signals, we are getting lower highs but the lower lows are not that distinct & sharp. For real selling pressure we need deeper lower lows. --- 1hr TF is still not bearish, it would have almost tipped in the favor or bears today if 43253 got broken. Sadly that did not happen, but I am sensing pressure getting build up & honestly banknifty did not want Nifty50 to cross the ATH. --- Finnifty Expiry Special The proof that speculation came from Finnifty is here, the surge of 0.78% when it was 0.3% down! Who would believe that! Since the markets are gung-ho & there is optimism all around - we normally dont expect markets to go in red. When in red, bouncing back to zero levels or cutting the losses - understood. But going from -0.3% to end the day with +0.4% gains - unusual ! Well, I will be a believer if we continue the green spell tomorrow also. The surge in 19450 CE was proof of this. 1577% ROI on this strike alone, you wont believe, I squared off this position at 6.5 only to see it zoom to 52.9 in the money!
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 15 JUN 2023 ExpiryThe beast in banknifty got unleashed today, after a long gap banknifty options really started surging today! You wont believe the OTM prices went above the traded range of Wednesday, that too today being an expiry day! --- BankNifty Weekly Analysis During the current expiry week 9th to 15th June, banknifty shed 556 pts ~ 1.27%. You may not believe that 544pts i.e 97% of that came just in today's trade. --- Today's Analysis We opened gapup right at the resistance level and then started falling. The first 5mts itself shaved off 200+ points. From there we had a steady falling day with no pull back. The selling really aggravated at 13.50 when all of a sudden lot of traders unwound short positions in PE. BN was near 43700 then, the volumes in PE did suggest that few traders were running for cover fearing their position may go deep ITM. This really fueled the next move. We fell another 300pts in 90mts.  Nifty50 was in green till then, see the blue highlighted area - the selling intensified in N50 too. Nifty50 at 10.00 was roaring past the resistance level of 18762 and was looking unstoppable. For the first time since Dec 2022, N50 tried to shoot for ATHs. Banknifty had other plans, may be attributed to the FOMC meeting yesterday - which we will discuss shortly. --- 15mts has now confirmed a break from the trading range, the last time it broke on the downside was on 24 May, which it recovered by 26th. The pick-up in momentum after the range break also signifies unfinished business ahead. --- 1hr TF also shows the range breakout, but the chart is not bearish yet. There are supports at 43253 & 43012 ahead. If banknifty is not stopping there - then it will be an interesting case for the July series. Remember we will have expiries on Fridays from 7th of July. The split of N50 and BN to separate days will definitely improve speculation. --- The curious case of FOMC rate pause Yesterday US FED decided to keep the interest rates at 5.25%. Our RBI has kept the interest rate at 6.50%. Lets just analyze what this interest means for a foreign institutional investor. Assumption: FII is investing in India's debt instruments & not equity Investor has earmarked 100000 USD for investments. In US over a 1 year period his investment will grow to 105250 USD. Whereas if he invests in India it will grow to 106500 USD. Now investment in India has to be done in INR, so there is a currency conversion risk. Lets just calculate how much was the USDINR appreciation for the financial year it was ~ 8.23% So now Mr. Investor has 97735 USD left with him i.e. a opportunity cost of -7.51% if he chose India over his home country. The best way RBI can tackle this issue is either get the USDINR to depreciate or hike the repo rate to have a higher divergence than FED rate. to view all 6 charts visit viswaram. com
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 13 JUN 2023 FinNiftyAnother day went by where the last 1 hr changed the sentiment of the day. Banknifty rallied 188pts ~ 0.43% from the LOD to the HOD all in 65 mts 14.20 to 15.25. Till that point the view was bearish and open for shorting opportunities. Just check the encircled area, banknifty was struggling to go past the resistance of 44068. The set up seemed almost perfect for a short-sell opportunity, it even had follow through when the 13.50 and 13.55 shaved off 114pts ~ 0.26%. Even the BN options data was showing weakness ahead. But Nifty50 had other plans, you would have noticed how strong it was even in the morning session. And it was not due to NiftyIT's support alone, RELIANCE, ASIANPAINT, ITC, HUL were all amassing gains. The option data for nifty was showing bullishness - the mistake I did was to anticipate nifty to fall once banknifty started its descent.  In fact the real opposite happened, Nifty50 pulled banknifty up, helped it cross the resistance with ease. My decision to go short was taken in a hurry to capitalize on the Finnifty expiry - but what it did was to take out the stop loss. Technically today banknifty and finnifty crossed the resistance whereas nifty50 has few more points to go i.e. till 18762. To an extent the last hour rally would have been due to the positive expectancy from US CPI data. Moreover SPX is at a 52wk high (not at all time high though). --- 15mts chart of BN still shows its trading in a range. Was expecting the lower end to break down today, but that did not happen. --- 1hr TF is also continuing in the same range. The upper band is at ATH levels - crossing that would mean a breakout trade and for that to happen banknifty would have to build lot of momentum. --- Finnifty Expiry Special Finnifty had a chart similar to banknifty. 19421 was the crucial SR zone for today, earlier in the day the trading was happening above this level. Between 13.50 to 13.55 there was a sudden fall back to the SR level. Again I assumed it will break this level and fall below the recent swing low. What actually happened was a rocket-style surge 90pts ~ 0.47% to ensure finnifty closed at the high of the day. From an expiry perspective, the options premiums were decent enough and had adequate juice till 14.00. 19450 CE which closed in the money would have been a jackpot strike if the buyer got in at Rs6 to Rs7 levels as it went up 3x.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 12 JUN 2023Quite an unexpected performance by NiftyIT today up +1.51% which would have spoiled the party for the Nifty50 bears. Last week as it ended was looking pretty negative for Nifty and flattish for BankNifty. Banknifty had a steady day today, down only 0.1% but the prices were consistently falling giving the impression that selling is still not over. From a technical perspective, banknifty has broken no support nor was looking dangerous. It just looked like a day where banknifty did not want to rally! HDFCBK and ICICIBANK were struggling to keep Nifty50 flat whereas INFY & TCS were pulling it to the top. Even nifty50 did not do anything technically today, although the first candle looked dangerous and had given the impression we will have a lower low today. The option prices on Nifty50 was again more volatile than Banknifty, I am starting to think which one has a higher beta these days. From an option seller's perspective it makes no sense in trading banknifty at these premium levels. BN spot is at 44000 and 45000 CE has a premium of Rs12 with 3 days to expiry. Usually I see a price of Rs12 for a strike 1000pts away on wednesday close, imagine the same value on a monday close. Nifty50 options premium even though low is far better than banknifty - there is enough juice to be squeezed. --- 15mts TF is still range bound, but we have a peak formation inside this range. The prices have hit the lower & upper end of the range multiple times now. This could indicate a range expansion soon!  --- 1hr shows a double top like pattern formed at the all time high zone. The pull back we had from ATH could be entirely technical due to positioning. We will wait for the lower end of the range to break to conclude if a new downward trend is starting or not. to view the 4 charts in discussion today, visit viswaram. com
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
Short Finance Nifty from here|Intraday and Hero & zero TradeMarket looks bearish from here, i have already uploaded view on nifty and banknifty, but now i am updating on finance nifty. There could be a trade for downside, Chances are high we can go towards 19300 levels. So if anyone wants to go short can go with by trading future or option. I have some trades. If anyone wants to go in trade can go with given levels on charts. Naked Option buying:- Buy Finance nifty 19400 Put option at 42 now. keep stop loss at 25 Target we can see 75/85/115+ For option writing:- Sale finance nifty 19350 Ce at 80 now. keep stop loss 135 hedge with finance nifty 19450 Ce at 25. Please follow strict stop loss in it. Please like and follow if you like my work. Thankyou.
NSE:CNXFINANCEShort
by TraderRahulPal
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 09 JUN 2023Banknifty was fighting hard to stay in green, Nifty50 on the other hand was vulnerable to fall. Another day went by wherein Nifty was proving to be more volatile than banknifty.  Percentage wise both banknifty and nifty fell around 0.5% between 12.30 to 14.30 but the perceived fall for nifty50 was higher as the prevailing price action gave it more momentum. Banknifty on the other hand showed a flattish pattern and ended the day just 0.01% down vs nifty 0.38% down. The option premiums were dragging for both banknifty as well as nifty earlier in the day. This was mainly because of no directional trend getting established. If you observe closely, banknifty went below yesterday's close only for short intervals. I am not quite clear why and how banknifty managed to hold on today when NiftyIT, Reliance, ITC, HINDUNILVR were dragging. I thought the fall in Nifty was purely technical, but banknifty not participating - keeps my doubts unanswered. --- 15mts TF showing no emotions as of now, the chart looking flattish with no particular bias. Banknifty unable to take out the 44068 resistance today might be something the bears could be cheering about. --- 1hr TF is still upward looking and no downside threats so far. The next support is 725+ points away and any inclination to close that gap will send the options premium spiking. Even after a 70+ point fall in Nifty50 today, the India VIX was still not rising. And at 11.12% its trading near the lowest levels. Option sellers might be facing a tough time to find high probability trades in a falling VIX environment. Even option buyers will not be rewarded unless their direction is accurate & there is a quick movement. And its expected - when markets are near all time highs, the volatility should be near all time lows.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
1
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 08 JUN 2023A good day to take out the support zone of 44068 - was it an over-reaction to the RBI rate decision today? Lets analyze. RBI MPC decided to keep the repo rates unchanged at 6.5% and continue its withdrawal of accommodative stance. Logically no major changes w.r.t last policy day. Handful of participants including me were expecting RBI to hike the rates so that the nail on the inflation coffin can be hit. The reluctance to hike rates and just a 10bps cut on the next fiscal inflation has lot of meaning. for FY23–24 inflation target has been revised to 5.1% from 5.2% - what this really means is the inflation is not going to come down even in the next year. And not hiking the rates will add oil to the fire. Had there been a rate hike, we could have assumed a steeper inflation fall trajectory & then a rate decrease to boost demand. As it stands RBI will have its hands tied next fiscal also not to cut the rates as inflation is only expected to come down 0.1%. And also election is around the corner, unless the Govt. slash the fuel rates - the perceived goods price hike will only keep going up. The central bank has decided to have a bleak looking tomorrow for the comfort of today. More worries will add up when the Rs2000 currency notes comes back to the banking system. Monetary assets will again appreciate in value with no real perceived changes. --- Banknifty weekly analysis Over the last week 01 Jun to 08 Jun, banknifty has fallen on 0.32% ~ 140pts. Its not really too much, imagine we fell 530pts from the HOD to LOD today. So on a weekly basis banknifty is still continuing to exhibit stability. --- Today's analysis We had an inline start and then a rally of 249pts till 10.55. RBI Governor speech was from 10.00 AM - so the initial market reaction was positive - but there was no outperformance. Nifty50's chart showed more meaning today, because the reversal came right at the resistance level for it. Since banknifty has no more resistances - it was tougher to trade today. In fact it was Nifty50 which started falling first and then the banknifty caught up to it. NiftyIT was weak early in the day itself. In total banknifty fell 533pts from the HOD to LOD breaking the support of 44068 on its way. There was a recovery from 13.40 to 13.55 which lured me to close the PUT position (that went jackpot). --- 15mts TF - things were looking flavorless until the support break came today. The chart is still emotionless - there is no threat of bearishness if 43600 is not taken out tomorrow. --- 1hr TF has brought back the importance to the 44068 SR zone. There has been multiple touch-and-go instances in the recent past. Still we need a close below 43253 till we have a change in bias to view all 6 charts of today, visit viswaram. com
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 07 JUN 2023 Banknifty was looking weaker compared to Nifty50 today, finally the day ended in green with a W pattern on 5mts TF. Although we started today with a gap-up, the index was bleeding. Banknifty fell underwater by 10.40 - meanwhile Nifty50 was surging supported mainly by NiftyIT which came back strong after yesterday's trashing. There was no strong downside momentum for banknifty, but the index was just weaker not having enough in it to rally as well. It was easy to tell that we will not have a big fall today looking at the options premium. Banknifty options had a lower implied volatility than Nifty50 thereby translating into cheaper option prices on BN. After 13.40 there was a huge buying momentum on Nifty50 mainly aided by Reliance, TCS and then the bank stocks also caught-up. Nifty50 went up 0.4% in the last 2 hours today pulling up banknifty above water and finally giving it gains of 0.25%. Nifty on the other hand closed 0.68% --- 15mts TF still shows banknifty in a range bound trade, we might need a range expansion trade day to exit this deadlock. If the momentum of Nifty50 is considered, then banknifty has higher chances to break upwards. --- 1hr TF shows banknifty trying to build up the momentum to go upwards. Still not clear why we had a drop on 31 May, there is no continuation of negative bias/event/triggers that could take banknifty further lower. All eyes will be on the interest rate decision by the RBI Monetary Policy Committee. Almost all the market participants are expecting a continuation of rate-pause (i.e. current interest rate of 6.5% will continue). I personally feel we might see a hike of 25bps to 6.75%. The main reason being the inability by the banks to stop the loan growth. Liquidity is still abundant in the system which will cast a shadow on "Inflation" by not cutting demand. Inflation which has cooled off, will not need that much of a time to rebound. If RBI is not deciding to hike the interest rate, they need to seriously consider bring down the liquidity. Withdrawal of accommodative stance has to be changed to "Withdrawal stance". I still think RBI has to be equally hawkish as the US & Europe central banks.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram