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Buy Bank NIfty for the target of 44750+Indian market and all the global market looking positive today. Indian Banking Sector roaring today, Bank nifty has given a breakout and hit all time high today, Price and action showing a sharp move towards 45k+ in bank nifty. Right now Banknifty trading at 44365 and this is the best entry for go long for the target of 44750+,,so buy from here and go for the target levels which i have mention on chart. i have a option writing trade for the entire week. Sale Banknifty 1st june 44400 PE at 250 now and hedge with Buy Bank Nifty 1st june 43900 PE at 90 now Maximum profit we can get in this trade per lot 3988 rs. keep in mind if you see 4000 loss in this trade please exit your 44400 PE position that will be only your stop loss, So risk and reward in trade will be 1:1,,Please hold this trade till expiry or when you see profit 3000+ per lot you can start booking your profits; Chances of profit is very high as banknifty has given a breakout. If anyone wants to go naked option i have trade for them also:- Buy 1st june Banknifty 44200 CE at 348 keep stop loss at 218 Target we can see in above 450/530/650+ Please follow strict stop loss in naked option. If you guy's like my work then please hit the like button and follow for the next update. And please comment your thoughts on this trade. Thankyou. Disclaimer:- Always consult with your financial advisor before taking any decision of buying sailing or do your own analyse.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by TraderRahulPal
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 25 MAY 2023 expiryThose who trade banknifty & nifty expiry will be excited to trade bankex & sensex expiry on 26 May 2023. I guess it will be the first expiry to be opened to retail traders ! I just checked the zerodha kite app, the option chain is still not integrated it seems, also the weightage of bank stocks of banknifty (NSE) is not same as bankex (BSE) - so request you to monitor the accurate component stocks before making a wrong decision. --- Weekly Analysis From 18th to 25th of May 2023, banknifty has dropped only 89pts ~ 0.2%. Traders who had taken weekly short straddles or short iron fly would have been highly benefited. Banknifty is able to hold its ground very well. After 11th May, it has not even fallen back to its first legitimate support level of 43253. Thats where we need to credit the bulls. I strongly felt we might breach support today, but the 14.15 hourly candle (+181pts) really surprised me. --- Today's analysis We opened inline and fell in the perfect slope as per the momentum set yesterday. There was no surge in volatility or abrupt moves, the fall was linear, steady and slow. At 11.30 there was a brief recovery till 12.20. The fall after that from 43601 to 43390 was looking like a possible candidate for further follow-up selling. Unfortunately that did not come and instead we had a reversal of 323pts that helped banknifty close the day with no loss. We have been seeing the 14.30 to close moves on all expiry days, it seems its very easy for the big boys to play out their strategy late in the day. The option premiums are unaffected as the decay has eaten into all the juice and just the near ATM strikes are all that matters. The real moves only if it comes early in the day will set a directional trend. Since we have expiries very often now, its quite possible to get the results with very little disruption. Although its good for option sellers in the short term - what it does is reduce the premiums in the long run. --- 15mts chart is the perfect range bound flattish pattern. There was a brief period when we just broke down from the usual range. Due to this break, I was assuming we will have more downward momentum. Only to have ended the day with worthless PUTS. --- 1hr has formed an odd shaped triple top, due the the awkwardness of this shape - I am not even pretty sure if it will work or not. This is formed near the ATH. Again the value of something bigger happening is highly dependent on the support levels of 43253 getting broken. As long as that level remain intact - whatever pattern that gets formed will not count.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 24 MAY 2023So we have some good news from one of the broker. Zerodha has enabled SENSEX & BANKEX futures & options trade. Those options expire every fridays. Most likely other brokers also will follow suit. So if you plan properly you get an expiry day-trade set up on  Tuesdays - FinNifty Wednesday - MidCapSelect Nifty (Poor liquidity) Thursday - Nifty50 & BankNifty Friday - Sensex & Bankex The biggest advantage I see is that you can try your option strategies 4 out of 5 days without taking positions overnight. This will help people who are wishing to become a full time trader! --- BankNifty had a down day today, fell more than Nifty comparatively. But not enough as we all anticipated. Yesterday US markets fell - SPX -1.12%, NDQ -1.2%. Other Asian and European markets also had big cuts, and our markets were still holding its ground.  Till 11.25 Nifty was rallying not falling - how is that for a change? The options data on Nifty was showing more upside potential, but we really hit a dead-end by 11.30. BankNifty options on the other hand was not as volatile as nifty, I was finding it difficult to gauge the direction from the options flow today. Only after 11.30, I came to know that banknifty is starting to reverse. Even then it did not spook the options premium. The PE premiums were well within its normal wednesday range, there was no unusual spike. The bulls in India were not worried with a global meltdown? I am starting to think the bulls here are too stubborn, they may dig themselves an early grave. --- 15mts shows the trading range converging, but no bias change as of now. Unless the support of 43253 is broken there will not be momentum. And you all know there is no resistance - so its an easy journey upwards. A small trigger/news/event will do to conquer new heights. --- 1hr shows the wedge formation quite decently. When the range converges, what follows is a quick expansion. Guessing the direction is not that easy because we are near all time highs. --- 2 days back we discussed how nifty broke the head & shoulders pattern to trade higher. What has formed today is a classic double top (M pattern). It has a higher weightage because the rejection is right at the resistance level of 18419.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 23 MAY 2023 FINNIFTYToday's price action on the 3 indices NSE:NIFTY , NSE:BANKNIFTY and NSE:CNXFINANCE were conflicting due to which none of them really went anywhere. NiftyIT had a down day that doused the fire in Nifty50 to break-through the resistance of 18419. Similarly Finnifty was unable to get past 19421. From the start there was huge shorting on banknifty on CE side which may have set the tone for the day. Nifty50 started gap-up and had gone to the resistance level by 10.15, but the shorting on bank & financials limited Nifty's gains. Banknifty also opened gap-up at 43978 and there was a move upwards, something that we can expect with how the day closed yesterday. This momentum faded out at the 44080 levels and from there BN was not going anywhere. There was a fall of 243pts between 14.25 & close. Nothing major to complain, but we all know why the last 1hr move today does not mean anything. Yes, it was finnifty expiry day. The big-boys knew this at the open itself, I got to know the shorting intensity after 1hr of open. A little bit of that was due to the Finnifty expiry - which we will discuss separately today. --- 15mts TF shows range bound move ahead, it did not show the shorting intensity, neither can we make out from the chart pattern so far. The bias has not changed to bearish mode, it will only if the 43253 support is broken. Do the shorts have enough strength to bring BN down to that levels - we will get to know by tomorrow. --- 1hr is still showing a converging chart pattern, just a continuation from yesterday. There is no change in bias as of now. --- Finnifty Expiry special Finnifty was the weaker among the 3 indices - Nifty, BankNifty & Finnifty. That was obvious as the expiry day traders would want the market to expire near previous close as much as possible. This will give them max gains for straddles. When Nifty50 was racing ahead, finnifty stayed quite flat. It was trading around the 19421 Support/Resistance zone but did not have any momentum to push it either way. The last 1 hr session was different from the rest of the day, we had a drop of 0.56% ~ 108pts to ensure Finnifty expires as flat as possible (0.06% gains). Also after 14.30 the premiums of both CE and PE were almost dead which made perfect sense for a small directional move. The option sellers would not have been hurt so much.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 19 MAY 2023 There was so much of hidden meaning in today's price action. Both banknifty and Nifty50 opened gap-up and then started falling. Banknifty fell 0.97% from High to Low, whereas Nifty fell 0.66% only.  This fall is the 1st anomaly, this happened at a time when NiftyIT was roaring! It opened gap-up and was shooting up. Which goes to prove that either Reliance or BankNifty had to fall to enable Nifty50 to continue its price action from the previous day. It was not normal to expect banknifty to keep falling as it has been creating continuous higher lows for a long time now. The question was when will it reverse, because my marked SR level is 43253, and other than the 1hr red candle there was no follow through. Banknifty took some time to gain strength and then started breaking out at 13.50, it went up 393pts by 15.10 and almost hitting the recent swing high.  What this did to N50 is the 2nd anomaly, it helped it snap out of the bearish sentiment. Sometimes a 40% weighted component like BN can pull so much of weight to turn the bias of N50 (really fascinating). This small momentum could help Nifty conquer the 2 resistances in the upcoming week. The options data was not hinting at this reversal, till 13.00 - the CEs were getting aggressively written. And once this sentiment changed more participants started writing PEs. Why is there so much buying at the top levels, I do not really know. Is FOMO fever back? Saw a news DAX (Germany) hit a new 52wk high. So the bearish cloud is starting to disappear for real? (to view all 6 charts & indicators visit viswaram. com) --- From a trading perspective these need not bother you. Longer term investments can be done via SIPs or lumpsum based on whether your main income is from salary or self-employment. Traders are in the business of speculation, i.e in the short-term where the markets are likely to go (or not go). And factually traders need not have FOMO - just need to get your views backed by solid research. If you are just starting out, go ahead with credit spreads in weekly expiries. It will give you learnings if your view is wrong & earnings if its right.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 18 MAY 2023 expiryWeekly Analysis In this expiry week, 12th to 18th May banknifty has moved up only 0.61% ~ 263pts. We have hit an important milestone this week though, 0.10 pts shy of all time high - 44151.7 on 15th. Banknifty is immensely bullish considering how Nifty50 is behaving. A trader on 15th or 16th would have normally expected BN to surpass the ATH to hit new records. The pull back of 380pts from the swing high is mainly because of the negative sentiment of Nifty50.  It could even be a normal profit booking after a breathless run, and as banknifty has not tested the support on 17th or today - the bull run should stay intact. --- Today's Analysis We had a gradually declining day today after the gap up open at 44006. The price action may appear negative due to the falling shape, but we still ended the day in green. There was a 272pt abrupt fall between 13.40 to 13.50 i.e. in the 10mts window - this looked like a warning shot. esp because the volumes also surged. Later on I read the news that SBIN results were declared. An there was a swing of 2.61% ~ 15.5 pts in this period. Luckily 43800 PE spiked helping many traders book a zero-to-hero kind of profit. This surge came totally unexpected. It surged 591% from 14.55 to 101.9. It also goes to prove that option sellers should not take things lightly - surges like this could really wipe out the hard earned money. --- 15mts TF is not looking fully bullish, although today's gap up would have given lot of hope for the bulls - it did not really sustain. Also a falling price action may also indicate the tiredness. Is the ATH breaking out getting delayed and markets in a phase of indecisiveness? --- 1hr TF is not really showing signs of slowing down either. Visually examining the moving average will also give you a fair idea - the slope is good and its increasing in value. The shorter term EMA once it starts dipping will give us a fair warning to reconsider our bullish stance.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 11 MAY 2023 expiryWeekly Expiry Analysis From the 4th of May till 11th, NSE:BANKNIFTY has fallen 0.3% ~ 131pts. Headline does not really indicate what went behind. We fell 1028pts in 1 single day i.e. 5th and then scaled back 870pts in the remaining 4 days. How can I not credit the bulls? You might be bored with me praising the bulls everytime - sadly that is the reality. The bears are really unable to move the needle, this week I seriously thought we will take out the 42576 session - but that did not happen! --- Today's Analysis Would you believe the gap-up open of 43535 today? We hit the same level as of 04 May on which NSE:BANKNIFTY had made an interim top. Needless to say the 5th May selling on HDFC-HDFCBK news took out some gains, but we have bounced back quite strongly. That gapup stands as an anomaly, otherwise the price action is perfect, showing a higher-high formation. And then we had a flattish session afterwards.  From an expiry standpoint we did not have big movements (unusual), but we had 2 or 3 intense volatility surges even with a flattish movement (again unusual). The IV surge helped the options premium spike 2 or 3 times giving excellent opportunity to traders today. Example 42000 PE which was OTM by 1500pts ~ 3.4% away from strike had 2 swings. 1st one from 09.30 to 10.30 where its premium surged 99% and then 13.10 to 13.48 where it surged 67%. Did the market make any abrupt move during that time - absolutely not.  --- 15mts are still having a minor bullish tone, but it will quickly fade out if new highs are not made. Are the bulls tired after a long run - seems like that. Nearest support is still 43253. --- 1hr is more bullish than 15mts TF thats because the trailing price action shows strong upwards momentum. It also has a vulnerability to form a double top at 43750 levels - but for that we need some bad news. The only bad news we can expect in May is the Karnataka elections results!
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 09 MAY 2023 finniftyThe real move came a little late today, from 12.45 to close wherein NSE:BANKNIFTY gave up 403pts ~ 0.93%. I was expecting the fall to come in the morning session - but the finnifty expiry trades would have limited this damage to a great extent. For some reason Axis Bank and IndusInd bank was quite strong today counter balancing the fall in SBI. Remember the Fibonacci discussion we had yesterday - seems like its playing its part, but not until all the strike premiums got eroded on NSE:CNXFINANCE .  The late movements on the index has become a mainstay these days - it is a safe strategy for the big boys not to burn their pockets. So today banknifty has taken out 1 support level at 43253, at 15.10 (5mts TF). All that while the markets were slowly grinding up, I was also quite surprised by the strength showed by the bulls today - with a negative sentiment prevailing they were not giving up. It took 4 red candles from 13.45 to 14.00 just to shake them. --- 15mts TF has not turned bearish yet, we would need a close below 42576 for that. At any point in the next 3 sessions if NSE:BANKNIFTY is able to take out 43700 levels then the chart will look bullish. So if the bears has to do something - now is the time. --- 1hr TF is shown with the FIB levels, today's reversal came at 78.6% retracement level and not at 61.8% (so my first assumption was wrong). Also the strength of the bulls were too strong that my bearish opinions were weakly held. --- Finnifty had a similar pattern to banknifty, but the support provided by HDFC in the early part of the day was quite evident. The FIB levels are exactly same for both the indices - today's reversal came exactly at the resistance zone of 19421. From an expiry stand point, the margin requirements on finnifty options are comparatively lower giving a higher returns for the same risk vs banknifty. Will NSE:CNXFINANCE gain more popularity than banknifty due to this??
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 08 MAY 2023I am still keeping my hopes pinned on the Fibonacci levels marked as in the chart below. 43739 recent swing high, 42581 last session swing low and 43296 the 61.8% retracement level. It really looked like a short-selling setup as the bull momentum faded out after 11.15 - we went up 1.46% ~ 622pts today but it really felt like the thrust to go up further was missing. I am still not denying that the medium term trend is still bullish - but the overhang of the selling of Friday is still in the hunt. 5hr 50mts i.e barring 4 5mts candles, the rest of the trade was in a narrow range 43171 to 43390. I got the feeling that the bulls & bears has not really negotiated who is winning, thats when I checked the FIB levels. NSE:BANKNIFTY made 670pts jump in the opening 45mts of which 537pts ~ 80% of the move came inside 20mts - looks like a short covering rally. The squaring off of short CE positions were evident in the opening minutes and whoever had taken those positions overnight would have been rewarded quite well. But most of them would not have expected the range bound trade to follow after the initial spike. Since its Finnifty expiry tomorrow, there was no sign of new positions getting created to play. Guess the participants were happy to leave NSE:BANKNIFTY alone today. --- 15mts TF may have dented the hopes of few weak bears today as 2 resistances were taken out i.e. 43012 & 43253 - which leaves banknifty at a similar level as on 03 May. And most of you would remember what happened on the next day - the mighty rally of 372pts to close the ATH gap. --- 1hr even though bullish has to answer this question, will the next few sessions take NSE:BANKNIFTY below 42576 to create a lower low & make today's level as a lower high? Or will it zoom past 43750 to nullify the blip that just got created. On 5th we discussed the possibility that the news/event driven trade spoiling the technical analysis. So now we need to wait till sanity returns (mostly we will get it right on 9th May during Finnifty expiry) --- NSE:NIFTY is not looking bearish at all, its more positive than banknifty and is showing more willingness to go to 18419 levels soon. Now we all know only 1 outcome is possible - and banknifty has more than enough strength to cancel out nifty50's plans too.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 02 MAY 2023Signs of tiredness visible in the price action today. To start with, never expected that our indices will close in green today, even though the momentum is slowing, it is pushing up the bulls inch by inch. Nifty50 was having more positive price action vs banknifty today - that may be because there are 2 more resistance zones to go for Nifty50 to reclaim the ATH whereas I do not have another resistance level for banknifty. Also the NiftyIT was providing some additional support today. If NSE:NIFTY has to go up further, the additional points has to come outside of the financial sector. NSE:BANKNIFTY opened gap-up, but the price action formed is continuous as the first candle retested last closing level. From there we had a narrow band sideways market. For 5h 50mts today we had a narrow traded range of 43362 to 43476. The upside was capped as the buying momentum was missing. The downside was protected as the bulls were quite strong. So literally we did not have any place to go today. Only in the last 1 hr we had some pattern forming indicating a profit-booking or an interim top like formation. Just a minor 180pts fall from HOD. Why I say there could a bit more selling to come is mainly because the volume of credit spreads that were getting created on the call side. --- Nifty50 also had a flattish pattern and unlike the banknifty the last 1 hr selling was not visible. It was a perfect day to get into a straddle today as the opening and closing prices are near same. Nifty50 traded in the range 18136 to 18175 today with no pressure to pick a direction. --- 15mts on banknifty is still bullish pattern. And its looks like a rounded top is getting formed. We would need further trades to happen below 43253 to have a change in bias. --- 1hr is still bullish and we would need a close below 42576 to have a change in bias. I do not have a resistance zone above the current levels. However it is quite unlikely that just banknifty moves up without Nifty50 crossing the 2 more resistance lines. --- NSE:CNXFINANCE expiry special. The open was gapup same like bank nifty and the traded range was again pretty narrow. However the selling pressure in 3 candles via 14.45, 15.00 and 15.15 was quite strong. These 3 came at a time when the options premiums were all near zero, so assuming these were un-windings of the positional trades taken for expiry. I am starting to spend more time on finnifty for Tuesdays as its much easier to trade than just banknifty. Atleast the certainty that the options will go to zero is still there. This is more relevant now as the banknifty options premiums are at their lowest levels. Unless the volatility rises the premiums of banknifty will remain subdued.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
Banknifty: Brace yourself for 43000.BankNifty is poised to potentially achieve a new high above the 43000 level. Our analysis indicates that it has been consistently making higher highs, while failing to establish a new low, indicating a trending market for the past few days. We have observed heavy put writings on levels below 42900, suggesting that a little bullish momentum could still provide opportunities to enter on retracement around the 42860 to 42920 range. Currently, I am holding at 42800 and am already in profit. I will be closely monitoring the 42921 to 42938 range, where a double top formation could signal a potential reversal. However, for this scenario to materialize, we will need to break below the 42781 level to confirm a bearish outlook. closely observing the market to see how it unfolds.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by Doinel33
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 26 APR 2023I am sure most of the traders would be surprised with the kind of bullish price action we saw after 10am. Since SP:SPX closed -1.58%, NDQ -1.89% yesterday - most of them including me expected NSE:NIFTY and NSE:BANKNIFTY to close in deep red today.  The gap down opening at 42559 was perfectly at the support level and from there we wont only 163pts down to reverse the direction & sentiment. We had a rally of 1.01% ~ 426pts from the LOD. The price action at the SR level is worth mentioning as we spent 55mts there before breaking out. There is no surprise with banknifty closing in green as bullish is the prevailing trend on the 1hr chart - but to have outperformed the US markets is real something.  Although I do not know what is the reason - it is worth researching on as the US market dips were due to the banking sentiment yesterday - First republic bank, UBS. This literally had no impact on our banks is something thats worth mentioning. --- Nifty50 had a similar chart with banknifty but it looks more positive. It has caught up to the recent swing high of 13th April indicating the weakness in IT may have got overshadowed by other performers. --- 15mts chart is now looking bullish again after yesterday's subdued performance. The next resistance is seen at 43012. The support of 42576 which held its ground today will give the bulls a lot of hope today. --- 1hr is also looking strongly bullish. The independent islands formed by the gap-ups shows the strong momentum too. Although hard to believe - banks in India are proving to be very strong & resilient to global bad news. My question is are the foreign institutional investors also thinking so?
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 24 APR 2023By 09.15 around 90% of traders would have guessed how NSE:BANKNIFTY is going to trade today. Thats because NSE:ICICIBANK had an excellent quarterly results to boast for. The predictability of banknifty is, one leading bank is enough to pull up the sentiment of others. Same on the downside as well. Opening was gap up at 42469, and it took a while before it started climbing to the resistance zone. Till 12.40 there was no directional bias - banknifty was maintaining the opening gap and not yielding ground. There was no attempt to close the gap too, meanwhile NSE:NIFTY went to slightly negative zone. Just compare the price action of banknifty vs nifty50, banks did not show any weakness at all whereas nifty50 was unable to maintain the gap. --- From 12.40 banknifty took-off breaking the resistance of 42576 very easily, It just required a small upmove of 287pts to get rid of this important resistance. There was also a test of support at 14.35 to 15.05 - but the momentum was too strong and bank nifty held its ground. I am starting to wonder how are these banks able to provide this stellar results? How are Indian firms able to outperform the global peers so efficiently and effortlessly? Unbelievable. The global banking fear of Silvergate, SVB, Credit Suisse has not lifted a finger in India. Not even a glitch! --- 15mts TF get a new bullish tone after today's move and the resistance getting broker. This temporarily gives the bull the edge from the rangebound trade we had till 21st Apr. --- 1hr chart is scaling new heights, with the next resistance seen at 43012. You would have noticed banknifty usually uses gaps to move the distance from 2022 onwards. Only rarely we see banknifty making huge moves during the day. This has cooled off the options premium again, I shorted few PUT options today very well knowing that they are already near the fair value. I was not surprised to end the day in losses as there was no further decay left in the options I traded. Literally pointing that option-selling is getting very unattractive at low volatility levels.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
NIFTY 50Nifty it's following it's FIB level along supported by trendline Nifty : 17550 is support, Nifty hurdle 17666 then 17717 & 17777 VWAP of series is near to 17635, we are near to the same Nifty 17600 call formed a Doji and making lower high - lower lows from last six days, so need to negate for swings Nifty 17600 put moving in between 45 to 100, so only above 100 any chance of dips in market Below 45, index can head towards 17717 & 17777 Disclaimer : Posts are for educational purposes only ; not any buy or sell recommendations. Please consult your financial advisor for initiating any trades
NSE:NIFTY
by YashhikaAggarwall
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 20 APR 2023 ExpiryNSE:BANKNIFTY has gained 0.29% ~ 123pts from the last Thursday to today. Except for the 1st hourly strong candle on 17th, the rest of the trading was range bound with a slight positive bias. The range banknifty traded in (max swings) indicated below. It just had a maximum swing of 1.28% and this explains why the options premium had no air in it. --- NSE:NIFTY on the other hand fell 1.14% ~ 203pts this week. The 1st candle of 17th basically set the tone for this week. The rest of the trades were contained within the shadow of this 1hr candle.  --- 20th April Analysis BankNifty is struggling to break-out from this level. Might be its taking a rest before the next move - but as it stands its out-performing Nifty50 quite strongly. Even though bank nifty was unable to take out the recent swing high, the downside protection is seen as quite strong. No matter what happens - bank nifty is not falling to the 41624 levels. Nifty50 on the other hand is going through a weak sentiment, triggered by the IT QoQ results. --- Looking at the option's premium data I strongly felt we have a down-trend post 12.30 - but the lows were strongly protected on both the indices. I must say my debit spread again went to zero ! --- 15mts chart is looking strong as ever, today's price action has confirmed that bulls are still in control. Yesterday I was of the impression that the support of 41624 could get taken out by 20th or 21st - thats because of a weak global sentiment. Seems like bank nifty has no intention to give up the gains! --- 1hr chart is also looking quite strong, the 14.15 candle of today (+156 pts) ensured that the swing-low of 42034 is not getting taken out. Also this candle gave so much of confidence to the bears - I could say with confidence that this move ensured even the Nifty50 is closing in green today! To view all the 7 charts visit viswaram. com
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 19 APR 2023NSE:BANKNIFTY had a narrow range based trade today with a minor negative bias. Yesterday's swing low was breached by 13.40, but it does not pose a major scare yet! The pattern may look bearish on the 5mts TF, but it actually isnt. Banknifty is comparatively outperforming the Nifty50 and NiftyIT index for the last 3 days. NSE:BANKNIFTY did not have enough momentum to take out the swing high or breach the 42576 levels. This along with the weak sentiment in Nifty50 would have prompted the bulls to take a small break today. There was no violent price moves or support/resistance breaks - this again ensured that the option prices remain low on the penultimate day of weekly expiry. --- The unusual low options premium in bank nifty options are nudging traders like me to switch back to Nifty50 options. I am hoping that this decoupling of banknifty with nifty50 may not last long and the volatility will normalize in the days ahead. --- The 15mts chart has not turned bearish yet. What we see could just be a consolidation. If banknifty is planning to reverse direction at this level - the the first support of 41624 has to be taken out in the next 2 days. Only if the support is taken out quickly, the momentum will favor the dip. --- 1hr chart is still looking strong, the 2 prominent gap-ups standing out boldly. It might be interesting to watch out how the global markets react to the EURO, UK CPI data today. If there are more rate hikes in pipeline - then we may have a weak global sentiment again!
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 18 APR 2023One thing I noticed this week is the variance in volatility of Nifty50 vs BankNifty. On 99 out of 100 trading days - Banknifty used to have a higher volatility than Nifty & you know what higher volatility brings to the options trading. Yes - option premium anomaly. Probably this variance was there earlier too, since I trade on BankNifty all the time - I rarely check the Nifty50 and FinNifty option premiums. But from the begining of April series - the option premiums were unusually low. I suspected it could be due to the high number of holidays this month. The reality was something different, NSE:BANKNIFTY was trading in a stable manner and the choppiness was visible in Nifty - this uncertainty made Nifty50 more susceptible to unusual option premiums. Banknifty stayed in a range today, the price moves from open to 13.05 was perfectly inline with the trend that was set from the last 3 sessions. Let me zoom out and highlight it. See the blue line, its almost a perfect straight line, the price action after 13.10 caused a blip. A fall of 387pts from the HOD to the LOD.  And why I said bank nifty was showing more signs of stability, this fall got arrested and the final closing was flat with a greenish tint. Whereas NSE:NIFTY showed weakness today also, not because of the IT sector (In fact IT was up 0.59%).  --- 15mts shows no major weakness so far. The chart is still bullish. As long as 41624 is still intact - the chart will not reverse direction. --- 1hr also is looking decently good, Just the 13.15 candle stands out from the trade today. If NSE:NIFTY shows further weakness ahead - I am not quite sure how long NSE:BANKNIFTY can stay in green. --- Just like we started discussing Finnifty Expiry from the last week - lets do it every Tuesdays henceforth. I took the expiry trades today & once the HDFC- NSE:HDFCBANK merger completes - it will be really exciting to trade NSE:CNXFINANCE because the top 4 weightage providing stocks will be the same. So we can take part in 2 expiry days in the same week. This is a blessing for anyone who is actively following the financial sector & banks in India. NSE:CNXFINANCE stayed in the range from the open to 13.25 today. The breakdown from the range came at 13.30, but anyone who looked at the red candles would have taken the trade in the short side. This fall also did not last that long, the LOD was at 13.45 and we closed more or less near the lows. The anomaly came in when the banks were doing good, but the HDFC & BAJFINANCE, BAJFINSV were pulling the index down. Thats why we had a flat day for NSE:BANKNIFTY vs red day for Finnifty. FinNifty support is at 18722 which is where it took support today. Yesterday also the first hourly candle took support at this same level. If this breaks the next support comes at 18458.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram