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PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 18 APR 2023One thing I noticed this week is the variance in volatility of Nifty50 vs BankNifty. On 99 out of 100 trading days - Banknifty used to have a higher volatility than Nifty & you know what higher volatility brings to the options trading. Yes - option premium anomaly. Probably this variance was there earlier too, since I trade on BankNifty all the time - I rarely check the Nifty50 and FinNifty option premiums. But from the begining of April series - the option premiums were unusually low. I suspected it could be due to the high number of holidays this month. The reality was something different, NSE:BANKNIFTY was trading in a stable manner and the choppiness was visible in Nifty - this uncertainty made Nifty50 more susceptible to unusual option premiums. Banknifty stayed in a range today, the price moves from open to 13.05 was perfectly inline with the trend that was set from the last 3 sessions. Let me zoom out and highlight it. See the blue line, its almost a perfect straight line, the price action after 13.10 caused a blip. A fall of 387pts from the HOD to the LOD.  And why I said bank nifty was showing more signs of stability, this fall got arrested and the final closing was flat with a greenish tint. Whereas NSE:NIFTY showed weakness today also, not because of the IT sector (In fact IT was up 0.59%).  --- 15mts shows no major weakness so far. The chart is still bullish. As long as 41624 is still intact - the chart will not reverse direction. --- 1hr also is looking decently good, Just the 13.15 candle stands out from the trade today. If NSE:NIFTY shows further weakness ahead - I am not quite sure how long NSE:BANKNIFTY can stay in green. --- Just like we started discussing Finnifty Expiry from the last week - lets do it every Tuesdays henceforth. I took the expiry trades today & once the HDFC- NSE:HDFCBANK merger completes - it will be really exciting to trade NSE:CNXFINANCE because the top 4 weightage providing stocks will be the same. So we can take part in 2 expiry days in the same week. This is a blessing for anyone who is actively following the financial sector & banks in India. NSE:CNXFINANCE stayed in the range from the open to 13.25 today. The breakdown from the range came at 13.30, but anyone who looked at the red candles would have taken the trade in the short side. This fall also did not last that long, the LOD was at 13.45 and we closed more or less near the lows. The anomaly came in when the banks were doing good, but the HDFC & BAJFINANCE, BAJFINSV were pulling the index down. Thats why we had a flat day for NSE:BANKNIFTY vs red day for Finnifty. FinNifty support is at 18722 which is where it took support today. Yesterday also the first hourly candle took support at this same level. If this breaks the next support comes at 18458.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 17 APR 2023NSE:BANKNIFTY really held its cool today! During preopen INFY was showing an open rate of -10%, and everybody would have thought we are going to see a massive sell off today. IT sector in total was in focus today as the INFY even though had not so bad results was quoting at 10% lower circuit. I think I saw it go down to 12.3 or 12.5% - since I do not track the IT index that closely, it did not really bother me. However I was excited to see how bank nifty will react. You might be aware that a sell-off in IT will impact the banks the most. A recession or a job loss in IT would mean a lot of NPAs and loan defaults as IT employees are the main people who take exuberant loans at unbelievable valuations. The opening chaos is very visible in the charts of NSE:HDFCBANK , NSE:ICICIBANK and NSE:AXISBANK . NSE:SBIN had a contradicting pattern and surged ahead. NSE:KOTAKBANK was least impacted- the opening volume was unusual and it had a bright day. At 10.05 bank nifty secured its feet and then started climbing. So this blip stayed only 45mts and you would not believe how the price action from the last session continued today also. The 45mts of downward fall was well negated by what followed. I guess the dip buyers were back and immensely supported for a close +130pts today. It will also meaningful to showcase the Nifty50 chart also, since IT index took a huge beating today, it was visible in Nifty50. There was a recovery post 10.05, but the close was in red unlike the bank nifty. --- The options data also requires special mention today, both banknifty and finnifty options were unaffected by the volatility, the NSE:NIFTY options had a good ride today. At a point I saw VIX hovering around the +10%, seeing the recovery in banknifty, I was immediately convinced the best place to take an option trade was Nifty50 instead of BankNifty. This makes an exciting week ahead. If there is further weakness in IT, it will spill over to the financial sector with a delay. --- 15mts on Banknifty says the uptrend is intact and today's blip has made no special impact. We need a support break of 41624 to get some attention of the bears ! --- 1hr also looking promising for the bulls, the next resistance at 42576. In fact in zerodha's TV chart a day high near this resistance level is visible, I am not sure why its missing in the TV chart directly. And today's price action rejection came at the resistance level only.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 13 APR 2023 ExpiryWe will start with the weekly analysis first, that is what happened in the series 7th to 13th April. The revised format is to provide an executive summary per week. This will benefit you for further research. Since 7th April was holiday, I have taken the closing price of 6th April as starting point. We had a 2.8% ~ 1148pts rally in this week. Let me zoom out and provide a perspective of what this means. If you notice we had a breakout from the 41311 levels which was the swing high of 6th April. Also notice how we broke the channel upper band. The beauty of break-outs are that the final leap will be intense - notice how we moved 367pts just in the closing hour today. The real momentum picked up once we crossed the 41624 level which was the swing high from 6th March 2023. Note the M like pattern formed then. And what followed from the was a fall to the 38690 level. From there bank nifty came back strongly & finally took out this resistance today. One particular strike ie 42000 CE stands out today, let me pull its chart here We had a rally of 3335% ie up 129pts from Rs4 today. The real power of options explained in just 1 strike! --- Coming back to the daily analysis now. Bank nifty opened at 41680 and fell for the first 5mts. From there it maintained a flattish pattern till 12.35 near the 41624 support/resistance zone. It was quite clear that if we break out from this level we will have huge momentum. However I was still looking at the bearish side. My analysis made me think bearish & plan that way. Once we started breaking out at 12.45 - there was no stopping. The momentum favored the breakout. Even though I was inclined to take a bullish position, I did not. I simply did not have enough confidence and this is where the market wronged me. As I stated earlier, 42000 CE was in my radar at 4.30 level - the magic by which it closed at 132 level still shocks me - an opportunity lost. For the option sellers who would have sold the 42500 CE and upwards never felt threatened as those strikes did not surge like the 42000 one. --- Now the 1hr chart is also screaming bullish, at least it is out of bear's hold for now. 41600 & 41800 both are safely breached. As most stock markets are skewed in favor of the bulls i.e everyone wants the stock market to go up. So when we see out-performance more people will join in and add funds - the classic FOMO effect. Since tomorrow is a holiday, we would need to wait for Monday to see further action. If we do not get any negative news from the global markets - bank nifty will be rocket-powered next week too.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 12 APR 2023NSE:BANKNIFTY held out to a perfect trend continuation from yesterday.  If we notice closely the pull backs were not strong enough to break the momentum. I sincerely thought we will have a reversal or a bearish day today and had taken PE debit spreads to capitalize.  If we analyze today's pattern closely NSE:BANKNIFTY took some time to take out the 41455 resistance. It was hanging around this SR zone for quite some time. Only at 13.20 did we break away from the area. And once we broke that, banknifty started another leg of rally to the next resistance of 41624. Also notice the pullback from 13.40 to 14.55 gave it good confidence as the support of 41455 held. Now why was I bearish - mostly I went with the contrarian decision to go short before the US CPI data. If you track the US markets you can see SPX is well above the bearish channel. This might give the US agencies to release a hotter CPI data as the markets will be ready to absorb it. So I applied the same logic here, if we were to crash - then the 40800 to 40700 levels looks quite possible.  95% of traders would have made money, excluding people like me as the current situation is of a break-out. And you should always stick to the main trend to keep your pockets full of cash ! What I did today is to go against the trend, try to me a little adventurous. --- 15mts trend is again favoring the bulls. I am so very sure 95% of traders will be looking out for bullish opportunity in bank nifty as the chart cries bullishness. --- On the 1hr chart, a resistance breach of 41624 is going to give bulls immense momentum. Last time we were at that level we had a double top M pattern formed i.e. on 6th and 9th March 2023. And then you know what happened - we fell all the way to the 38690 support level. So tomorrow is going to be a very serious day to have either a decisive breakout from these levels or fall back to range. The jump on 31st March has made all the difference to this chart and has given the bulls a new hope.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 10 APR 2023I am making some changes in the chart layout from today's report. It will be in white background going forward. This is after the feedback I got from the kindle publishing team that images with dark layout will look awkward when made into paperback. note: I will still continue to use the dark-mode chart for my trading purpose, only for the reports I will be using the white-mode NSE:BANKNIFTY opened today at 41116, it might look as a gap-up open but when the price action is considered it looks perfectly in line. The entire market was quite subdued today, the option premium at the lowest when we compare an average Monday. The good-friday holiday might have played its part, but I still think the premiums were restrictive for any option sellers to have made money today. I waited till 10.45 to find any mis-priced option, the moment I saw the premiums were all dead - I called it a day. I was just waiting on the sidelines just waiting for something to happen. From 10.10 to 11.35 NSE:BANKNIFTY tested its first support at 40880 but did not break it. The rejection came at 11.40 when a short surge helped it gain 192pts. The real move came from 12.45 to 14.15, in fact the 5mt candle at 14.15 had a bid dip. In spite of this the options premium hardly felt any threat. I am referring to OTM premiums which captures the threat more evidently. Now we have the 40880 support broken decently as the close was below that level. The next support 40704 did not break today, below which the bears would have exerted some additional pressure. --- 15mts TF does not look bearish yet, NSE:BANKNIFTY might be taking a small break before the bullish continuation.  It could also mean a short term top if the further trades are held below the current levels. Ideally this should be the case wherein the bears get some control on the market & drive up the premiums. --- 1hr was in a perfect downward trend till the moves from 27 March 2023 to 06 April 2023 ruined it. As it stands we have just entered back the top level of the descending channel. Further trades below this channel will give the bears lot of confidence to push down the bank-nifty prices & drive up the options premium. The implied volatility which is staying so low is causing all the trouble for the option sellers.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
Option strategy for Nifty next week here we will create an IRON CONDOR IT is an options strategy consisting of two puts (one long and one short) and two calls (one long and one short), and four strike prices, all with the same expiration date. The iron condor earns the maximum profit when the underlying asset closes between the middle strike prices at expiration. ideally nifty will stay above 17250-200 and below 17850-17900 thus a condor strategy can be applied for next week with Short selling 17250 PE & 17850 CE and making a 200-point away strike as a hedge for any uncalled event!! this will give credit and the yield would be pasted in the comment one can check sharesvalley & my username for getting in touch for more OPTIONS ARE GREAT TOOL FOR hedging
NSE:NIFTY
by pratik2358
Some tips for beginners to get started in stock marketHere are some tips for beginners to get started in the stock market and for those looking to become pro traders--------- Start with the basics: Before diving into the stock market, make sure you have a solid understanding of the fundamentals of investing, such as how the stock market works, how to read financial statements, and the different types of investment vehicles available. Set realistic goals: Determine your investment goals and risk tolerance to create a portfolio that suits your needs. Keep in mind that investing is a long-term strategy, and it's essential to have patience and discipline. Do your research: Conduct thorough research on the companies or sectors you plan to invest in. Look for companies with strong financials, a competitive advantage, and a clear growth strategy. Diversify your portfolio: Diversification is key to managing risk in the stock market. Invest in a mix of stocks, bonds, and other assets to spread your risk across different sectors and industries. Keep an eye on the market: Stay up-to-date with the latest news and trends in the stock market. Monitor your investments regularly and be prepared to make adjustments if necessary. Learn from your mistakes: Investing involves risk, and it's normal to make mistakes. Use your losses as an opportunity to learn and refine your strategy. Consider professional help: If you're new to investing or don't have the time or expertise to manage your portfolio, consider working with a financial advisor or a robo-advisor to help you make informed investment decisions. Keep emotions in check: It's easy to get caught up in the emotions of the market, but it's essential to maintain a level head and stick to your investment strategy. Have patience: Successful investing takes time and patience. Avoid chasing quick gains and focus on long-term growth. By following these tips, beginners can start building a solid foundation for investing in the stock market, while more experienced traders can refine their strategies and continue to grow their portfolios.
NSE:TCSEducation
by zeeshankra
1
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 06 APR 2023 ExpiryYesterday we discussed in detail the RBI MPC possibilities. If you read the article - I was expecting a hike. Surprisingly RBI maintained status quo today. Even when the inflation is at the elevated level a pause in rate hike should not be taken very lightly. An optimist would say it is an excellent decision that RBI is offering some breathing space for the financial markets. But a pessimist will see the decision today as an evident threat to the banks & lenders. In his speech RBI Governor emphasised how the global financial institutions became victim to the rate hikes carried out in advanced economies without naming SVB, Credit Suisse. If we apply the same logic here, it means the banks in our country may be having immense pressure coping up with the NPAs and issue of new loans. They may be at the verge of a breakdown that RBI decided to give them time to recoup. Inflation might have got a free hand here to run a little loose for now. It will be interesting to see how RBI reacts the next quarter. The upcoming summer season, rise in power/electricity utilization, depletion of coal reserves, less than normal monsoon are all parameters RBI takes into consideration along with the projections for crude oil. Download the RBI monetary policy report click here. --- Coming back to our NSE:BANKNIFTY analysis for today. We discussed the possibility of a pull back to the range level which should encourage the bears. Well that came early in the day. I must say we were on track to break the crucial 40880 support & the RBI surprise played spoilsport. Just after the declaration, banknifty jumped 321pts ~ 0.79% to break away from the support level. This ensured the 41500 CE which was just 700pts away from ATM spike 293%. i.e a surge of 18pts. 41000 CE went in the money and surged 208% ~ 151pts in the same time. I wanted to bring to your attention percentage wise 41500 CE gave a higher ROI vs 41000. Whereas 42000 CE did not even go past 93%. Just so that you know how to find the sweet spot ! By 11.10 the momentum faded and we started falling, and we were trading slightly negative between 13.45 to 14.25 before closing flat. I cannot really say the reversal at 11.10 came from the resistance level of 41311 as NSE:BANKNIFTY did not reach there. Even after these events the OTM of call as well as puts were totally dead today. The premiums were very low ruining any chances of arbitrage opportunities as part of weekly expiry. So personally I had a losing day! --- 15mts TF looking strong and bullish. Since it's a holiday tomorrow we would need to wait till Monday to know the next move. If the global markets fall in the next 2 sessions, then we may have a gap down. If everything stays normal then NSE:BANKNIFTY would be rejoicing the resistances it has torn apart & would like to keep moving up. --- 1hr TF has formed the perfect W pattern which leaves us with a question - will bank nifty continue to break the bearish trend it started in 14 Dec 2022 ?
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
#HDFC Looking good for today 15 mar 23#hdfc... ✅▶️ ⛳️⛳️⛳️⛳️⛳️⛳️⛳️⛳️⛳️ Intraday as well as swing trade 🔷All levels given in charts ... we provide stock as well as option level over their 🔷 IF good potential seen then we work in options also 🔷 if activate then possible a huge movement Keep eye on this ... 🔷We take trade only when it activates... 🔻🔻🔻🔻🔻🔻🔻🔻🔻🔻 Possible to give good target 👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍 TRADING FACTS
HShort
by trading_facts96