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PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 13 JUN 2023 FinNiftyAnother day went by where the last 1 hr changed the sentiment of the day. Banknifty rallied 188pts ~ 0.43% from the LOD to the HOD all in 65 mts 14.20 to 15.25. Till that point the view was bearish and open for shorting opportunities. Just check the encircled area, banknifty was struggling to go past the resistance of 44068. The set up seemed almost perfect for a short-sell opportunity, it even had follow through when the 13.50 and 13.55 shaved off 114pts ~ 0.26%. Even the BN options data was showing weakness ahead. But Nifty50 had other plans, you would have noticed how strong it was even in the morning session. And it was not due to NiftyIT's support alone, RELIANCE, ASIANPAINT, ITC, HUL were all amassing gains. The option data for nifty was showing bullishness - the mistake I did was to anticipate nifty to fall once banknifty started its descent.  In fact the real opposite happened, Nifty50 pulled banknifty up, helped it cross the resistance with ease. My decision to go short was taken in a hurry to capitalize on the Finnifty expiry - but what it did was to take out the stop loss. Technically today banknifty and finnifty crossed the resistance whereas nifty50 has few more points to go i.e. till 18762. To an extent the last hour rally would have been due to the positive expectancy from US CPI data. Moreover SPX is at a 52wk high (not at all time high though). --- 15mts chart of BN still shows its trading in a range. Was expecting the lower end to break down today, but that did not happen. --- 1hr TF is also continuing in the same range. The upper band is at ATH levels - crossing that would mean a breakout trade and for that to happen banknifty would have to build lot of momentum. --- Finnifty Expiry Special Finnifty had a chart similar to banknifty. 19421 was the crucial SR zone for today, earlier in the day the trading was happening above this level. Between 13.50 to 13.55 there was a sudden fall back to the SR level. Again I assumed it will break this level and fall below the recent swing low. What actually happened was a rocket-style surge 90pts ~ 0.47% to ensure finnifty closed at the high of the day. From an expiry perspective, the options premiums were decent enough and had adequate juice till 14.00. 19450 CE which closed in the money would have been a jackpot strike if the buyer got in at Rs6 to Rs7 levels as it went up 3x.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 12 JUN 2023Quite an unexpected performance by NiftyIT today up +1.51% which would have spoiled the party for the Nifty50 bears. Last week as it ended was looking pretty negative for Nifty and flattish for BankNifty. Banknifty had a steady day today, down only 0.1% but the prices were consistently falling giving the impression that selling is still not over. From a technical perspective, banknifty has broken no support nor was looking dangerous. It just looked like a day where banknifty did not want to rally! HDFCBK and ICICIBANK were struggling to keep Nifty50 flat whereas INFY & TCS were pulling it to the top. Even nifty50 did not do anything technically today, although the first candle looked dangerous and had given the impression we will have a lower low today. The option prices on Nifty50 was again more volatile than Banknifty, I am starting to think which one has a higher beta these days. From an option seller's perspective it makes no sense in trading banknifty at these premium levels. BN spot is at 44000 and 45000 CE has a premium of Rs12 with 3 days to expiry. Usually I see a price of Rs12 for a strike 1000pts away on wednesday close, imagine the same value on a monday close. Nifty50 options premium even though low is far better than banknifty - there is enough juice to be squeezed. --- 15mts TF is still range bound, but we have a peak formation inside this range. The prices have hit the lower & upper end of the range multiple times now. This could indicate a range expansion soon!  --- 1hr shows a double top like pattern formed at the all time high zone. The pull back we had from ATH could be entirely technical due to positioning. We will wait for the lower end of the range to break to conclude if a new downward trend is starting or not. to view the 4 charts in discussion today, visit viswaram. com
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 09 JUN 2023Banknifty was fighting hard to stay in green, Nifty50 on the other hand was vulnerable to fall. Another day went by wherein Nifty was proving to be more volatile than banknifty.  Percentage wise both banknifty and nifty fell around 0.5% between 12.30 to 14.30 but the perceived fall for nifty50 was higher as the prevailing price action gave it more momentum. Banknifty on the other hand showed a flattish pattern and ended the day just 0.01% down vs nifty 0.38% down. The option premiums were dragging for both banknifty as well as nifty earlier in the day. This was mainly because of no directional trend getting established. If you observe closely, banknifty went below yesterday's close only for short intervals. I am not quite clear why and how banknifty managed to hold on today when NiftyIT, Reliance, ITC, HINDUNILVR were dragging. I thought the fall in Nifty was purely technical, but banknifty not participating - keeps my doubts unanswered. --- 15mts TF showing no emotions as of now, the chart looking flattish with no particular bias. Banknifty unable to take out the 44068 resistance today might be something the bears could be cheering about. --- 1hr TF is still upward looking and no downside threats so far. The next support is 725+ points away and any inclination to close that gap will send the options premium spiking. Even after a 70+ point fall in Nifty50 today, the India VIX was still not rising. And at 11.12% its trading near the lowest levels. Option sellers might be facing a tough time to find high probability trades in a falling VIX environment. Even option buyers will not be rewarded unless their direction is accurate & there is a quick movement. And its expected - when markets are near all time highs, the volatility should be near all time lows.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
1
Bank Nifty Futures 28th May 2023 LevelsSpecial markings in Red, blue and Green solid lines are very important areas and opening of the trade in the morning gives us a reasonable idea along with other factors as to how the day should proceed. If you have been following the levels from the previous charts by now you would have seen the importance of how correctly marked areas worked . we can visualize from the chart where a trade with defined risk can be taken. The dotted lines in red blue and green can be tagged incase of a break on either side. The dotted lines ate the untouched VAH, VAL or poc which can be tagged. If you carefully watch the previous charts you will understand how the dotted lines get tagged during the course of the day Keep following for live market updates.
NSE:BANKNIFTY1!
by SABMR
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 25 MAY 2023 expiryThose who trade banknifty & nifty expiry will be excited to trade bankex & sensex expiry on 26 May 2023. I guess it will be the first expiry to be opened to retail traders ! I just checked the zerodha kite app, the option chain is still not integrated it seems, also the weightage of bank stocks of banknifty (NSE) is not same as bankex (BSE) - so request you to monitor the accurate component stocks before making a wrong decision. --- Weekly Analysis From 18th to 25th of May 2023, banknifty has dropped only 89pts ~ 0.2%. Traders who had taken weekly short straddles or short iron fly would have been highly benefited. Banknifty is able to hold its ground very well. After 11th May, it has not even fallen back to its first legitimate support level of 43253. Thats where we need to credit the bulls. I strongly felt we might breach support today, but the 14.15 hourly candle (+181pts) really surprised me. --- Today's analysis We opened inline and fell in the perfect slope as per the momentum set yesterday. There was no surge in volatility or abrupt moves, the fall was linear, steady and slow. At 11.30 there was a brief recovery till 12.20. The fall after that from 43601 to 43390 was looking like a possible candidate for further follow-up selling. Unfortunately that did not come and instead we had a reversal of 323pts that helped banknifty close the day with no loss. We have been seeing the 14.30 to close moves on all expiry days, it seems its very easy for the big boys to play out their strategy late in the day. The option premiums are unaffected as the decay has eaten into all the juice and just the near ATM strikes are all that matters. The real moves only if it comes early in the day will set a directional trend. Since we have expiries very often now, its quite possible to get the results with very little disruption. Although its good for option sellers in the short term - what it does is reduce the premiums in the long run. --- 15mts chart is the perfect range bound flattish pattern. There was a brief period when we just broke down from the usual range. Due to this break, I was assuming we will have more downward momentum. Only to have ended the day with worthless PUTS. --- 1hr has formed an odd shaped triple top, due the the awkwardness of this shape - I am not even pretty sure if it will work or not. This is formed near the ATH. Again the value of something bigger happening is highly dependent on the support levels of 43253 getting broken. As long as that level remain intact - whatever pattern that gets formed will not count.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 23 MAY 2023 FINNIFTYToday's price action on the 3 indices NSE:NIFTY , NSE:BANKNIFTY and NSE:CNXFINANCE were conflicting due to which none of them really went anywhere. NiftyIT had a down day that doused the fire in Nifty50 to break-through the resistance of 18419. Similarly Finnifty was unable to get past 19421. From the start there was huge shorting on banknifty on CE side which may have set the tone for the day. Nifty50 started gap-up and had gone to the resistance level by 10.15, but the shorting on bank & financials limited Nifty's gains. Banknifty also opened gap-up at 43978 and there was a move upwards, something that we can expect with how the day closed yesterday. This momentum faded out at the 44080 levels and from there BN was not going anywhere. There was a fall of 243pts between 14.25 & close. Nothing major to complain, but we all know why the last 1hr move today does not mean anything. Yes, it was finnifty expiry day. The big-boys knew this at the open itself, I got to know the shorting intensity after 1hr of open. A little bit of that was due to the Finnifty expiry - which we will discuss separately today. --- 15mts TF shows range bound move ahead, it did not show the shorting intensity, neither can we make out from the chart pattern so far. The bias has not changed to bearish mode, it will only if the 43253 support is broken. Do the shorts have enough strength to bring BN down to that levels - we will get to know by tomorrow. --- 1hr is still showing a converging chart pattern, just a continuation from yesterday. There is no change in bias as of now. --- Finnifty Expiry special Finnifty was the weaker among the 3 indices - Nifty, BankNifty & Finnifty. That was obvious as the expiry day traders would want the market to expire near previous close as much as possible. This will give them max gains for straddles. When Nifty50 was racing ahead, finnifty stayed quite flat. It was trading around the 19421 Support/Resistance zone but did not have any momentum to push it either way. The last 1 hr session was different from the rest of the day, we had a drop of 0.56% ~ 108pts to ensure Finnifty expires as flat as possible (0.06% gains). Also after 14.30 the premiums of both CE and PE were almost dead which made perfect sense for a small directional move. The option sellers would not have been hurt so much.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 22 MAY 2023First time in many weeks, banknifty underperformed nifty50. Ideally this move should have come last week when nifty50 had 2 more resistances to break and banknifty was near ATH. Better late than never. Nifty50 shooting pass banknifty is actually good for the entire stock markets in India. Only when all the components have caught up - a bullish trend is synchronized. This will pave the way for further breakouts. Friday we went home with the news that Rs2000 denominated currency notes are getting removed from circulation w.e.f Sep 30 2023.  Theoretically this should be good news for the banks - approx. 2-3 lakh crore stashed cash is going to return to the banking sector. Majority of this will flow into fixed deposits, debt mutual funds, equity mutual funds & stocks. From a formal economic perspective - this may be the best decision ever made. Ideally Rs500 currency also should be withdrawn in the next 3 to 5 year (according to me) so that the digital migration will gain more momentum. Having said that, I assume the economists & advisors has taken into consideration what will happen to the informal economy which is the silent backbone of real economic activity in India. Nobody has any clue how much of turnover is happening there - but its still huge! Kirana shops, road side vendors, dalals, brokers, drivers, maids, caretakers, chaiwalas etc are all from the informal sector. I am not really sure how many of them even have a bank account, leave alone financial investment opportunities. My grandfather used to carry cash with him, keep some in almari & some in the cash-pot near pooja room. Usually when the number of notes goes up - he exchanged it for the highest denomination available & stored it. He did not use a bank account then! I assume there would be lot of people in India who does the same even today (hope they get saved). --- Coming back to our analysis, as per the options data there was lot of fresh shorts taken at CE side. Mostly in the afternoon session. This contradicts with the nifty50 view which has got some new hope as the H&S pattern was negated today. The encircled traded region which just nullified a bearish chart pattern would have caused lot of momentum shift. Again as per options data shorts were created on the PE side. As I see it, market participants are long on nifty and short on banknifty. A real tough scenario to play out as banknifty has 38% weightage. Possible options are niftyIT to outperform (12% weightage) along with Reliance (10%) & LT + ITC (8%).  This should be a mega fishing week for the option sellers as a strong breakout could only emerge if there is short-covering on banknifty. Nifty by itself may not be able to pull all the weight. Tomorrow's Finnifty expiry may lead the way when few positions in HDFC & Bajaj twins gets unwound. --- 15mts is in a range based trade as of now which kind of makes it a good reward:risk for non-directional option strategies ultra short term. --- 1hr shows the trading range getting narrowed, the lows are getting shifted higher and the highs are getting lower. What follows is usually a range expansion. Chart may say the break would be on the upside, but the reality could be dependent on even macro/news events.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 17 MAY 2023Once again banknifty has outperformed Nifty50, the intraday recovery from 14.30 to close facilitated by the bulls of the banks. The price action formed today is interesting, but it is not compelling for a sentiment change to bearish as the support of 43253 is still untouched. If you look at the chart pattern today, it was a decent continuation of the trend from yesterday. We can conclude with a 60% confidence that the rounded top like formation made yesterday could be here to stay. The W like pattern formed in 5mts is not really important, but you should keep it in mind. The bulls are quite strong to give away their lead, thats quite the reason we had a 268pts pullback after a 547pts fall earlier in the day. --- 15mts TF shows the perfect rounded top that got formed. Keep in mind these are temporary levels just for intraday, banknifty is at ATH levels and there is no marked resistance - which means that a small trigger can breakout BN to new highs. --- 1hr is still bullish, we will be eagerly waiting for the 1st support break. I was expecting it to be taken out today esp when Nifty50 was looking quite dangerous. But banknifty proved more stronger than thought - not only did it recover, it helped N50 also to reduce the losses. --- Just look at the Nifty50 1 hr chart, continuous red candles till 13.15. Total drop of 1.81% from the swing high. It makes an interesting case here, if the further trades are held below the current levels we will have a bullish trend negation pattern, even while banknifty is continuing in bullish sentiment.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 11 MAY 2023 expiryWeekly Expiry Analysis From the 4th of May till 11th, NSE:BANKNIFTY has fallen 0.3% ~ 131pts. Headline does not really indicate what went behind. We fell 1028pts in 1 single day i.e. 5th and then scaled back 870pts in the remaining 4 days. How can I not credit the bulls? You might be bored with me praising the bulls everytime - sadly that is the reality. The bears are really unable to move the needle, this week I seriously thought we will take out the 42576 session - but that did not happen! --- Today's Analysis Would you believe the gap-up open of 43535 today? We hit the same level as of 04 May on which NSE:BANKNIFTY had made an interim top. Needless to say the 5th May selling on HDFC-HDFCBK news took out some gains, but we have bounced back quite strongly. That gapup stands as an anomaly, otherwise the price action is perfect, showing a higher-high formation. And then we had a flattish session afterwards.  From an expiry standpoint we did not have big movements (unusual), but we had 2 or 3 intense volatility surges even with a flattish movement (again unusual). The IV surge helped the options premium spike 2 or 3 times giving excellent opportunity to traders today. Example 42000 PE which was OTM by 1500pts ~ 3.4% away from strike had 2 swings. 1st one from 09.30 to 10.30 where its premium surged 99% and then 13.10 to 13.48 where it surged 67%. Did the market make any abrupt move during that time - absolutely not.  --- 15mts are still having a minor bullish tone, but it will quickly fade out if new highs are not made. Are the bulls tired after a long run - seems like that. Nearest support is still 43253. --- 1hr is more bullish than 15mts TF thats because the trailing price action shows strong upwards momentum. It also has a vulnerability to form a double top at 43750 levels - but for that we need some bad news. The only bad news we can expect in May is the Karnataka elections results!
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
43485 Make or break level in Banknifty Here I provide a detailed analysis of Banknifty for Monday, May 8, 2023. In this video, I delve into the key levels and potential scenarios that traders and investors should watch out for. During my analysis, I discovered a crucial make or break level at 42500. This level holds significant importance as it will determine the next move for Banknifty. Additionally, I observed substantial call writings around the 43000 level, which may act as a strong resistance, potentially preventing the price from surpassing it. Consequently, I advise viewers to exercise caution when considering buying Call Options (CE) at this stage. On the other hand, I also highlight the possibility of a bearish scenario. If Banknifty breaks yesterday's day low, it could open the door for further downward movement. This provides an opportunity for traders to consider Put Options (PE) to capitalize on potential downside momentum. Join me in this insightful video as I analyze the current market conditions, key levels, and potential trading strategies. Stay informed, stay alert, and make informed decisions based on the analysis provided. Remember, the market is dynamic, and risk management should always be a priority. Subscribe to my channel to stay updated with the latest market analysis and trading insights. Let's navigate the exciting world of finance together!
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by Doinel33
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 05 MAY 2023Finally some volatility to keep the bears alive. This entire week the technical analysis was saying keep buying. See how a fundamental change can alter the sentiment. "MSCI tweaks spook HDFC twins, merged entity may see $150-200 million outflows" The MSCI news hit just before the start of the day and NSE:HDFCBANK and HDFC were down 5% in pre-open. The biggest loser was NSE:CNXFINANCE index compared to NSE:BANKNIFTY & NSE:NIFTY during the preopen session. Even after such bad news the other banks did hold banknifty up till 12.55 after which the banks had a near free fall. The open was gap down, but it recovered very neatly till 10.20, there was volatility visible in CE options premium, but PE premiums were still under control. Obviously the near ATMs had huge spikes as the gapdown itself was an uncertainty in itself. The pattern formed after 10.20 was a perfect 2 legged down-fall. The 2nd leg had a depth of 1.6% ~ 695pts. Banknifty was holding its ground near the 43253 support at the start as well as from 11.05 to 12.55. In this period of 2 hours the options premiums started decaying.  Right after the 1pm move there was a broad-based selling on other banks as well. And what it did was to ensure banknifty's fall was matching the Finnifty's percentage drop. Its true that both of them fell exactly 2.34% today. However the HDFC which fell 5.58% is just present in Finnifty. Somehow to the naked eye I am not convinced how banknifty had an equivalent fall as finnifty. The only positive contributor to finnifty was SBILIFE which has a small weightage. Seems like IndusInd & Federal bank which has weightages of 5.4% and 1% would have made the difference. I am still not convinced :( --- 15mts TF is showing banknifty has broken 2 supports 43253, 43012 today and was stopped at 42576 support. This is the first time in many sessions that we had a decent retracement. Since its fundamental/news driven, the technical analysis wont really work here.  --- 1hr shows the top formation quite clearly. The nearest support of 42576 if broken will open up a free-fall gap of 952pts till the next decent support at 41624. If that happens we can start taking bearish trades. --- Nifty50 chart pattern is not bearish even after the blip today. The nearest support is at 17976 and the next support is 3% lower at 17429. Interestingly this 3% gap between 2 SR zone is similar to banknifty as well showing a vulnerability. If the indices can hold its ground very well we will not have a snowballing effect.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 04 May 2023 - expiryWeekly Analysis NSE:BANKNIFTY has gone up by 1.58% ~ 678pts from last Thursday to today. It has taken out 2 crucial resistance points in the process and nearing the ATH now. Really impressive performance - the banks in India are standing out with their outperformance. Global financial institutions are melting down and many US banks are trading less than 50 to 60% below their ATHs --- Today's Analysis Banknifty opened inline today and had a parabolic upside move, something that we usually see during range breakouts. At present banknifty is not in a range, so the price action could even be due to short covering. Of the 0.86% gained today, 0.71% aggressive move came between 14.15 to 15.10 - once the HDFC declared its results. Since today was an expiry day, the last 1 hr move would have shocked many.  43500 CE option chart would have amazed many by a 530% upmove between 14.15 to close. When the VIX is low, volatility is at its lowest point - the option buyer gets a rag-to-riches kind of story like this every week. The same spike was available on 18200 CE Nifty50. I was not really interested in fishing for these opportunities even though the risk:reward looked interesting. Mainly because I prefer to sell the options first rather than buy. --- 15mts TF is showing today's move quite prominently. Once it took out the swing high of 02 May there was no stopping. Most of the option traders would be frustrated as the moves are coming only in the last 1 hr - this would spoil their trading plans. Also during low volatility & low option premium periods - positional trading gives far more returns than intraday. --- 1hr TF shows the new higher-high that got formed. In yesterday's report we discussed the possibility of the same happening. What is more surprising is how it happened today even after FED raised interest rates to 5.25% & SP:SPX tanked 0.7% overnight. --- NSE:NIFTY has also created a higher-high and closed above 17976 conclusively. The next resistance is at 18419
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
Banknifty: Brace yourself for 43000.BankNifty is poised to potentially achieve a new high above the 43000 level. Our analysis indicates that it has been consistently making higher highs, while failing to establish a new low, indicating a trending market for the past few days. We have observed heavy put writings on levels below 42900, suggesting that a little bullish momentum could still provide opportunities to enter on retracement around the 42860 to 42920 range. Currently, I am holding at 42800 and am already in profit. I will be closely monitoring the 42921 to 42938 range, where a double top formation could signal a potential reversal. However, for this scenario to materialize, we will need to break below the 42781 level to confirm a bearish outlook. closely observing the market to see how it unfolds.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by Doinel33