28th Dec ’23 - 94% of Q3 gains came in DEC - BankNifty AmazingBankNifty Quarterly Analysis
Surprisingly BankNifty rose only 9.56% ~ 4232pts compared to 11.6% by Nifty. There are 2 reasons for this.
RBI’s I-CRR and CAR weight adjustments decisions rocked the boat and BN fell much more than N50
NiftyIT rose to the occasion and supported N50, in the same period NiftyIT gained almost 12%
1D chart link - click here
BankNifty Monthly Analysis
94% of the Quarterly gains came in the December series alone. It was like a relay race and during the last lap, BN ran so fast that it made up for the losses in the earlier 2 months.
1D chart link - click here
BankNifty Analysis
The gap up really helped BankNifty to cross the top boundary of the ascending channel. After that happened, all BN had to do today was to resist falling below that inclined support level. In fact BN did that beautifully today and in the process hit a new ATH of 48636.
4mts chart link - click here
The monthly options expiry is much better than the weekly ones. Primarily because the premiums are pretty high when Nifty and BankNifty have expiry on the same day. From a trader’s perspective, the earnings are directly proportional to the premiums the strike carries. During volatile expiries like today, the premium is too sugary to resist.
63mts chart link - click here
BN trade above the ascending channel top line is not that clear from the chart as the line is seen as cutting it through. On a lower TF, you can clearly see the difference. For tomorrow also, we are going with the bullish stance.
Optionstrading
BANKNIFTY MATHEMATICAL LEVES FOR THIS EXPIRY (28 DEC )Hey ,
These Levels are based on purely mathematical calculations.
Validity of levels are upto expiry of current week.
How to use these levels :-
* Mark these levels on your chart.
* Safe players Can use 15 min Time Frame
* Risky Traders Can use 5 min. Time Frame
* When Candle give Breakout / Breakdown to any level we have to enter with High/Low of that breaking candle.
* Targets will be another level marked on chart
* Stop Loss will be Low/High of that Breaking Candle.
* Trail your SL with every candle.
* Avoid Big Candles as SL will be high then.
* This is one of the Best Risk Reward Setup.
For Educational purpose only
20th Dec ’23 - BankNifty falls 967pts - stance is now bearish 🐻BankNifty Today Analysis
It all started with BankNifty today, the options flow was indicating immense bearishness. But Nifty50 options flow was showing strong bullishness. This contrasting directional bias barely works in our market. And 9 times out of 10, Nifty50 mends its way to go as per BankNifty’s directional bias. The reason is, BankNifty is still the leader of the pack.
4mts chart link - click here
So first, the collusion again with NiftyIT to get Nifty50 to get to a new top and then a meltdown. BankNifty shaved off 967pts intraday after getting a gap up open. The candle at 13.27 ensured we were re-entering the ascending channel. Just like we discussed yesterday - the directional move came and we were not caught off guard.
You might have guessed when we went short today, yes as soon as the ascending channel top line was breached. The ensuing momentum gave us confidence in the bearish bets. What was more surprising was the breach of the bottom line of the ascending channel - I honestly did not see that coming.
63mts chart link - click here
Technically Banknifty has not moved that much today, we just dropped 0.89% compared to 1.41% of Nifty50. There were some outliers today, ADANIENT -5.35%, ADANIPORTS -5.76%, RELIANCE -1.21%, LT -2.3%.
And the subsectors were all in RED. I seriously do not know if it is a serious correction phase as the runup so far has been like a dream. The chances of something happening like this were quite evident today. BankNifty options premiums were screaming bearishness - I thought it was because of the expiry. And Nifty50 was showing strong bullishness. I bet my money on Nifty as the options prices were more rational as it was not expiry related. But since the BankNifty’s premium’s were not dropping - It gave me the warning shot. Quite fortunately was able to catch the top and low of a few strikes correctly. Also was able to switch between BN and N50 strikes quite seamlessly to take advantage of the mispricings. Who in the world will believe 22700 CE of Nifty50 had a premium of Rs3 for 1 DTE i.e. a strike 1500pts above spot?
19th Dec ’23 - BankNifty and NiftyIT collusion to get N50 to ATHBankNifty Analysis
Going neutral on BankNifty worked out pretty well today. But things were not looking in favor till we got the reversal at 10.03. Till then BN was following the falling price action from yesterday. I was kind of worried that we may even re-renter the ascending channel today.
4mts chart link - click here
How and why we got the reversal - No clue. But BN climbed an impressive 369pts ~ 0.78pts to 48010 levels before giving up gains to close flat. The final close is 0.01% - how much more neutral can we be??
4mts chart link - click here
The ATH on Nifty50 looks like was planted. NiftyIT was falling pretty strongly and it was looking like a one-way trip down. NiftyIT recovered an impressive 423pts ~ 1.21% to help N50 take out the ATHs. So the Sync between NiftyIT, Reliance, and BankNifty was perfectly aligned to get the job done. And after that - things went back to normal. NiftyIt gave up 239pts and BN also dropped 227pts.
63mts chart link - click here
The neutral zone is highlighted by 2 horizontal blue lines. Since tomorrow is BankNifty expiry - I am really looking forward to seeing a directional attempt. I wish to stay neutral till then. BankNifty options premiums were looking pretty good today and were unlike the usual Tuesdays we see. VIX near the 14 range is really helping the option sellers.
15th Dec ’23 - 273pts massive upmove, Nifty50 hits new ATH 21492Nifty Analysis
Recap from yesterday: “Nifty has shown it is stronger than thought by bouncing off the channel’s upper boundary. For tomorrow, my stance is revised to bullish. Since we are at ATH, I do not have an upper target, but my support level will be 21037.”
4mts chart link - click here
Results continue to amaze and amuse me. Never have I been rewarded so beautifully for the technical analysis. I strongly do not think it's because my analysis is getting better, but Nifty50 is becoming more predictable.
Even if you bought this morning right at the gap up of 21298, you would have made another 158-point gain. Nifty’s new ATH is 21492.3. Normally Gap-ups are either held or sold into, and when it rallies after the gap - it shows a fundamental shift in sentiment. Frankly, I am curious to know - who is buying at these levels, or is it just FOMO?
I played the Sensex expiry trades today, the PUT option I sold went up another 84% despite the strike moving up. Usually Puts appreciate when the market falls, but in my case, the spike came when the market was surging. I guess it had to do with the liquidity & new credit spreads getting written. Anyway, it was a treat to watch.
63mts chart link - click here
Nifty has formed a new island at a gap-up showing breakout momentum. My stance continues to be bullish with the first support level revised to 21341. All we can do now is trail the stop loss and let the winners run. I stopped trading today at 15.00 when Nifty crossed 20400, would you believe we even went up another 92pts before settling at 21456. The reason I pulled out early was because of the unreal speculation & euphoria. The PUT options were looking pretty seducing to short, but I decided to pass. Good to go into a 2 day holiday due to the weekend and reclaim some sanity. Talk to you guys on Monday.
CDSL Buy for 40% Gain...- CDSL is India’s largest securities depository in terms of number of accounts with the highest - -share of incremental growth of demat accounts.
- The total number of demat account investors in India reached over 12 crores, with more than 9 crores registered with CDSL.
- Highest Ever Quarterly revenue of 207 crore.
- Highest every net profit of 109 crore in sept. quarter.
- Making cup and handle pattern.
- target 1975, 38 % from current price.
Future Initiatives:
The company is assessing the potential for loan against insurance policies and the adoption of e-insurance frameworks
Warning - not a buy or sell recommandation ask your financial adviser before investing.
"Mastering Options Trading: A Comprehensive Guide"Welcome to the exciting world of options trading, where every move counts and knowledge is your strongest ally. As the renowned Indian investor Rakesh Jhunjhunwala wisely puts it, 'Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing.' So, let's unravel the intricacies of options trading, breaking it down into easy-to-understand steps.
What Are Options?
Think of options as your special toolkit in the financial universe. These tools give you the power to choose (without the obligation) to buy or sell assets like stocks or currencies at a fixed price before a specific date. It's a game-changing tool for making strategic financial moves.
Getting to Know the Basics
In the realm of options, a single ticket is called an 'Option,' and if you have a bunch, they're simply 'Options.' It's like having your own set of magic keys to unlock opportunities in the market.
Real-Life Application
Let's bring this down to everyday scenarios. Imagine you're Rahul, dreaming of owning a home but uncertain about prices and loans. Enter options! You talk to the seller, like Mrs. Kapoor, and strike a deal that gives you time to decide if you want to buy the house – a trial period for your dream home.
The Magic of Token Money
Now, what's this 'Token Money'? It's a small deposit showing you're serious about a deal. In our case, the money you pay for an options contract is like saying, 'I'm genuinely considering buying this.'
Unveiling Your Superpower
Options give you superpowers in the financial world. You have rights, but you're not obliged to use them – a special skill indeed.
The Game Begins
Now that you know the rules, let's dive into the game of options trading! It's like navigating through a chessboard of financial opportunities.
Exploring the Practical Uses of Options
Options, those versatile tools we discussed earlier, serve multiple purposes in the market. Let's understand them further, using relatable examples.
**1. Speculation:**
Options let you take a bet on where prices are heading. Imagine you believe an Indian company's stock will rise soon. Instead of buying shares, you can get call options on the stock, potentially making a profit without a big upfront investment.
*Example:* You predict XYZ Company's stock will rise from Rs. 100 to Rs. 120. Instead of buying 100 shares at Rs. 100, you buy call options at a lower cost, say Rs. 5 each. If the stock hits Rs. 120, you can use your options to buy and make a profit.
**2. Hedging:**
Options act as a shield against potential losses. If you own a stock and fear its price might drop, buying a put option puts a limit on your potential losses.
*Example:* You own shares of ABC Ltd., but you're worried the market might dip. You buy a put option at Rs. 95. If the stock drops to Rs. 90, you can still sell it at Rs. 95, minimizing your losses.
**3. Income Generation:**
Options can be your financial side hustle, generating income while managing risk. Techniques like volatility spread theory or max pain theory allow traders to collect premiums regularly.
*Example:* You sell options contracts and earn premiums regularly. If all goes well, you pocket the premiums. However, if the market moves against you, there's a risk of potential losses.
**4. Risk Management:**
Options serve as a safety net, helping you set limits on buying or selling assets, ensuring you won't lose more than you're comfortable with.
*Example:* You own a bunch of shares in a tech company and worry about a market downturn. You buy put options at a strike price of Rs. 150. If the stock falls below Rs. 150, the put options kick in, limiting your losses.
Options are like versatile tools in your financial toolkit. They offer flexibility and can be tailored to fit your goals and risk tolerance. However, it's crucial to understand them well before diving in.
Meet the Key Players: Buyers and Sellers
Now, let's meet the main characters in the options market – the buyers and sellers. Their roles are pretty simple, so let's break it down without the jargon.
**Option Buyers:**
These are folks who buy options hoping to make a profit. It's like getting a special ticket to potentially buy or sell something later.
- No Obligation: Buyers have the ticket but aren't forced to use it.
- Unlimited Profit Potential: If things go well, the sky's the limit.
- Limited Risk: They only risk what they paid for the option.
- Common Strategy: Buying options is like taking a guess on where prices are heading.
**Option Sellers:**
On the flip side, these are the sellers – they sell options hoping to pocket the premium paid by the buyer.
- Obligation: Sellers promise to sell or buy if the buyer decides to use the option.
- Limited Profit Potential: Sellers' earnings are capped at the premium.
- Unlimited Risk: Depending on the market, risks can go big.
- Common Strategy: Selling options is often about making regular income or safeguarding against potential losses.
Now, if we throw in Put Options and Call Options, we get four types:
1. **Call Buyers:** These buyers bet on prices going up.
2. **Call Sellers:** Sellers here aim to make money from the premium, predicting stable or falling prices.
3. **Put Buyers:** Buyers in this category anticipate prices going down.
4. **Put Sellers:** Sellers here collect premiums, hoping for stable or rising prices.
Stay with us as we explore this fascinating world together, keeping it simple and crystal clear.
If you found this guide helpful, give it a thumbs up 👍 and share it with your friends who might also be intrigued by the magic of options. Let's demystify finance together!
YOUR NEXT MOVE?So well NIFTY is currently trading at 20068 points with
-BIG Support levels at
1.19207.75
2.18832.75
-Resistance levels at
1.19877
2.19983
3.20228
The index well is near its highest resistance level that is 20228 which was actually achieved because of the G20 summit that was held in india that had crossed resistance levels at 19983.
Now looking at the RSI levels we can determine that the index has used up all its strength and energy at 82.07rsi levels which was the previous RSI resistance level. What we can conclude through this is that nifty wont be crossing nifty levels of 20228 and will start its downward journey because of lack of power it needs to be in a upward trend. Well Nifty could be seeing levels as low as 18832.75 to 19207.75.
Well for my trade in options:
-Expiry- 28 DEC
-Strike price-19550 .
-PUT SELL
Smiplified Bank Nifty Analysis! - 7th Nov'23Looks Bulls are entering which kept market floating for past 2 days might get good movement by tomorrow or expiry, if open without gaps or open in previous days range.
- As per trend analysis bulls making lower highs as support may hit 43800
- Bullish move above 43800 , Resistance at 43970
- 43600 may act as support & resistance both.
- 43400 support on down side
Note - do your own analysis before making any trade or investment!
Automation using TradingView Webhooks, I got hooked on Dhan!Brokers are the last people on earth to whom we would like to give credit. Social media is flooded with posts that say “My broker did not help me square off positions…”, “My broker’s app stuck in between..”, “My broker did not help me login…” etc. I believe 99 out of 100 support tickets they get every day would be problems, glitches, and issues. Being a broker is such a thankless job, even if you are doing okay - their customers would say “They just meet the expectations..”
Maybe they should change their name from “brokers” to “platforms”, because when we hear the word broker - we relate it with commissions. It all started in real estate purchases and rentals. If you wish to rent a property, you need to pay 1 month’s rent as brokerage to the person who showed you the apartment. Similarly, the broker in stock trading connects you to the exchange - so that word rhymes with the concept of giving out some money as commissions.
My topic today is not about reducing the commissions or abolishing the list of taxes every trader faces, but something about giving credit for a job done well. This list is tracking 128+ brokers in India. Together they handle about 3,24,94,922 active customers. I assume that should be 95% of all traders. The top 10 brokers handle 80% of the customers. The top 20 handles 90%. This means around 108+ brokers handle just 10% of the customers.
Every broker has some pros and some cons. Switching from one broker to another is not that easy, so the customer will only do that if the new broker offers something extraordinary - a new tech or a pricing advantage. I am here to talk about one such tech that got me interested - Trade via Charts.
@TradingView (TV) is a firm that provides app/web based charting solutions for most of the stocks, indices, currencies, and commodities out there. Most of the brokers provide a free integration with TradingView charts. Even trade from charts is not that new - it was there for quite some time now.
@Dhan is one of the first brokers (15th in this list) that provided the TradingView integration via Webhooks. This means if we set some levels on the TV chart, it could place the orders directly on the Dhan app. This means a lot if you are serious about automating your trading plan. All we need to do is set the right levels on the TV charts via price alerts, pass the JSON script, and then set a corresponding order on Dhan app. If the stock/index crosses that price level - the system automatically places the order for you.
Dhan made this revolutionary integration and then quietly but suddenly it started gaining a lot of customers. Automated trading will attract the office-goers, self-employed professionals and part-time traders because they can set these levels on the chart and then forget it. This feature will help them take their eyes away from the trading screen and focus on their main job. Lesser screen time for trading combined with a higher focus on their main profession.
Lesser screen time also ensures lower stress levels. Sitting in front of the computer monitor for 6 to 7 hours watching the charts is not a child’s play. It not only eats up our energy but often prompts us to over-trade or exit prematurely.
This is how I created the price alert. In the message box you need to pass the correct Json as provided by the broker (for sample I have mentioned it as just TESTING..). Once this price alert is correctly set up - it places an order if Nifty50 falls below 18900. All I need to do is create a basket with the items that need to be part of the order. For example, see image below - I created a test basket with name: 111 that will place an order of 1 lot on 18900 PE when Nifty50 falls below 18900 on the TV chart.
If you are new to coding or automation - it may take some time to get a grip on what is happening. But once you have done the homework, it should work like a charm. I had no plans to open a Dhan account earlier, but as soon as this feature became stable - I wanted to try it. Now that I have been using it for half a year - I am really loving it. Once I got it working, the speed of placing the order was much better than my manual entries. I saved some slippage costs as well.
The important takeaway here is that automation is highly possible, but you need to set the command correctly. Automation is not a tool to help you make profits if you were losing manually. The logic of what should happen and when it should happen should be decided by you, how it will happen is what's getting automated.
Also, trading is a tough job. Less than 5% succeed. 99% of trading money deployed ends up in the hands of 1% of traders. The real clue is to get your research worked upon. Work hard to find your edge. If you are employed somewhere, use your spare time or weekends to research. Once you are ready with a good plan - you may be able to deploy this feature. If you get it programmed correctly - it may even give you peace of mind.
27th Oct ’23 - A Day to Rest & Reload - Nifty PostMortemNifty Analysis
Recap from yesterday: “For tomorrow, I wish to maintain my bearish stance and expect Nifty to trade between 18880 and 18762. If we break 18762, my next target would be 18597.”
Nifty took a breather today, opened gap up around the 18930 area and rose steadily. We did not retouch or break the low of 25 Oct ie 19075 zone, slightly indicating that the bottom may not be in place. Since my bearish view went into loss today, I had to square it off. My current view is neutral and would like to go bearish if the swing low of 18837 is broken again. The moment Nifty climbs back above 19170, I wish to go long.
Usually in periods of aggressive directional moves, strong indices usually take a breather to regain the strength. I wish to see it that way for the time being. The price actions of Monday and Tuesday will give us more clarity and we will be able to deploy better strategies then.
A simple Fibonacci level places the 23.6% retracement level at 19083 and 38.2% at 19227. Ideally, the bearish trend could still be intact until 19227 but the problem is that we cannot predict with certainty if that would come in this weekly series or not. For Monday, I wish to go with a neutral stance and choose the direction based on how markets move in the forenoon session. Personally, I prefer the markets to go lower as the rising VIX would lift the options premium.
25th Oct ’23 - Pure support & resistance play - 42576 nxt level?BankNifty Analysis
BankNifty was a pure support and resistance play today. If you had seen my charts earlier - you would have seen the marked SR zones and noticed how we reacted to 3 of those levels today. Open was gap-up above the 43253 SR level. We went up to 43404 zone and got rejected and came back.
We spent some time back at the 43253 levels with no special directional intent. The options flow was perfectly in sync with this non-directional bias for this short period. The rejection of 43253 came at 12.00 (strong red candle) and we cut through the 43012 SR level by 12.40 (another strong red candle). From there we retested the 43012 level at 14.10 & 14.15 only to be rejected.
One of the reasons BankNifty held its ground today was due to these closely stacked support/resistance levels if not we should have fallen more than Nifty50 today.
On the 1hr TF, the next level to watch out is 42576. Below that there is a big gap till 41624, which means if we manage to break 42576 tomorrow - the next fall is going to be steep enough. BN will have its expiry along with Nifty50 tomorrow and I wish to maintain my bearish stance.
21 Sep ’23 Post Mortem on BankNifty - will 44429 get broken ?BankNifty Analysis
One thing that really gave me confidence in the bearish move was the build up of momentum in banknifty. I did not get this feedback from Nifty, but Banknifty’s pulse gave me hope that further down moves are highly possible.
Since I rely on options flow also to gauge the sentiment - the intensity of CE shorts were too good today especially in the last 1 hour of trade.
Nifty had a flattish day after the 1st hourly candle - but take a look at banknifty. The 3rd candle onwards everything was in RED. 567pts out of 760 came in this period - and the rest points actually came in gap-down. When the market falls in normal trading hours - it gives a boost of confidence vs fall via gap-downs. That is because traders prefer to see the sentiment changing hands.
For tomorrow I am continuing the bearish stance with the first target being 44429 and then 44236. If 44068 gets taken out in next 2 sessions - it is going to be a game changer
High probability Ascending triangle can be formed. Hi banknifty trader. there is a high probability that banknifty can form ascending triangle pattern and continue its bullish trend. also, it is forming this bullish at its all-time high region.
so upside momentum can be good if breakout will happen.
Banknifty ( only for minimum 250-300 points target)Banknifty. (Only for Experienced traders" )
Enter after " Breakout and Retracement ".
.
.
For " long "
entry: 44575 / 45025
target: 45030 - 45250 - 45760
stoploss: 44430
.
.
For " Short"
entry: 44430
target: 44250, 44030
stoploss: 44580
.
Enter only if market Breaks
"Yellow box" mentioned.
.
Wait for proper reversal and conformation.
.
Don't make complicated trade set-up.📈📉
Keep it " Simple, Focus on Consistency "💹.
Refer our old ideas for accuracy rate🧑💻.
Valuable comments are welcomed-✌️
.
.
[ i]Disclaimer:
Our Trading style is not to capture "10-20" points per trade.📊
We take entry only for min "200-300" points without any distractions.💹
So, our ideas may not be preferable for small traders, who just focusing on too much of support and resistance.📈📉📈
So, please consider others ideas.
This is for educational purposes.🧑💻
Nifty Setup Analysis Market broke down in last trading session after gap up on previous session, US market closed in green zone post US FED meet with no rate hike, expected to open in green zone but 19240 level is crucial support which have tested too many times. VIX is also rising. So follow chart for proper entry and exit levels.
BANKNIFTY and HDFCBANK Best Intraday Trade🤑💲💸✔#HDFCBANK #BANKNIFTY #NIFTY50 #NIFTY #SENSEX #TATA
Intraday trading involves buying and selling options within the same trading day, rather than holding them for an extended period. By adopting this approach, traders can make profits by capitalizing on the short-term price movements of the underlying asset.22-Apr-2023
Is option buying good for intraday?
Trading intraday options can be a great way to benefit from short-term market fluctuations and make quick money. Before you dive headfirst into the fast-paced world of intraday options, it's important to have a sound strategy with an understanding of risks and rewards.
The long black candlestick is 'the mother' and the small candlestick is 'the baby'. The smaller the second candlestick, the stronger is the reversal signal. The shadows of the second candlestick do not have to be contained within the first candle's body.
Which candle is best for option trading?
Here are the top 5 candlestick patterns that traders must know:
Doji. The Doji pattern is formed when the Open Price and Close Prices are the same or almost the same, and there is Low and High Price, so the candle has nearly nobody with a lower and upper wick. ...
Hanging Man. ...
Hammer. ...
Morning Star and Evening Star.
Technical analysis and options trading can go hand in hand. Many of the best practices for options trading come directly from technical analysis concepts. Technical analysis focuses on price. Fundamental analysis does not solely focus on price.
RBI Forex Reserve Grow is this Good or Bad ?
1st 140 Billion loss hua hai or ab 20 Billion Grow hua hai to hai to abi bhi loss mai
Gover..t abi losss mai hai