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PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 11 MAY 2023 expiryWeekly Expiry Analysis From the 4th of May till 11th, NSE:BANKNIFTY has fallen 0.3% ~ 131pts. Headline does not really indicate what went behind. We fell 1028pts in 1 single day i.e. 5th and then scaled back 870pts in the remaining 4 days. How can I not credit the bulls? You might be bored with me praising the bulls everytime - sadly that is the reality. The bears are really unable to move the needle, this week I seriously thought we will take out the 42576 session - but that did not happen! --- Today's Analysis Would you believe the gap-up open of 43535 today? We hit the same level as of 04 May on which NSE:BANKNIFTY had made an interim top. Needless to say the 5th May selling on HDFC-HDFCBK news took out some gains, but we have bounced back quite strongly. That gapup stands as an anomaly, otherwise the price action is perfect, showing a higher-high formation. And then we had a flattish session afterwards.  From an expiry standpoint we did not have big movements (unusual), but we had 2 or 3 intense volatility surges even with a flattish movement (again unusual). The IV surge helped the options premium spike 2 or 3 times giving excellent opportunity to traders today. Example 42000 PE which was OTM by 1500pts ~ 3.4% away from strike had 2 swings. 1st one from 09.30 to 10.30 where its premium surged 99% and then 13.10 to 13.48 where it surged 67%. Did the market make any abrupt move during that time - absolutely not.  --- 15mts are still having a minor bullish tone, but it will quickly fade out if new highs are not made. Are the bulls tired after a long run - seems like that. Nearest support is still 43253. --- 1hr is more bullish than 15mts TF thats because the trailing price action shows strong upwards momentum. It also has a vulnerability to form a double top at 43750 levels - but for that we need some bad news. The only bad news we can expect in May is the Karnataka elections results!
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
43485 Make or break level in Banknifty Here I provide a detailed analysis of Banknifty for Monday, May 8, 2023. In this video, I delve into the key levels and potential scenarios that traders and investors should watch out for. During my analysis, I discovered a crucial make or break level at 42500. This level holds significant importance as it will determine the next move for Banknifty. Additionally, I observed substantial call writings around the 43000 level, which may act as a strong resistance, potentially preventing the price from surpassing it. Consequently, I advise viewers to exercise caution when considering buying Call Options (CE) at this stage. On the other hand, I also highlight the possibility of a bearish scenario. If Banknifty breaks yesterday's day low, it could open the door for further downward movement. This provides an opportunity for traders to consider Put Options (PE) to capitalize on potential downside momentum. Join me in this insightful video as I analyze the current market conditions, key levels, and potential trading strategies. Stay informed, stay alert, and make informed decisions based on the analysis provided. Remember, the market is dynamic, and risk management should always be a priority. Subscribe to my channel to stay updated with the latest market analysis and trading insights. Let's navigate the exciting world of finance together!
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by Doinel33
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 05 MAY 2023Finally some volatility to keep the bears alive. This entire week the technical analysis was saying keep buying. See how a fundamental change can alter the sentiment. "MSCI tweaks spook HDFC twins, merged entity may see $150-200 million outflows" The MSCI news hit just before the start of the day and NSE:HDFCBANK and HDFC were down 5% in pre-open. The biggest loser was NSE:CNXFINANCE index compared to NSE:BANKNIFTY & NSE:NIFTY during the preopen session. Even after such bad news the other banks did hold banknifty up till 12.55 after which the banks had a near free fall. The open was gap down, but it recovered very neatly till 10.20, there was volatility visible in CE options premium, but PE premiums were still under control. Obviously the near ATMs had huge spikes as the gapdown itself was an uncertainty in itself. The pattern formed after 10.20 was a perfect 2 legged down-fall. The 2nd leg had a depth of 1.6% ~ 695pts. Banknifty was holding its ground near the 43253 support at the start as well as from 11.05 to 12.55. In this period of 2 hours the options premiums started decaying.  Right after the 1pm move there was a broad-based selling on other banks as well. And what it did was to ensure banknifty's fall was matching the Finnifty's percentage drop. Its true that both of them fell exactly 2.34% today. However the HDFC which fell 5.58% is just present in Finnifty. Somehow to the naked eye I am not convinced how banknifty had an equivalent fall as finnifty. The only positive contributor to finnifty was SBILIFE which has a small weightage. Seems like IndusInd & Federal bank which has weightages of 5.4% and 1% would have made the difference. I am still not convinced :( --- 15mts TF is showing banknifty has broken 2 supports 43253, 43012 today and was stopped at 42576 support. This is the first time in many sessions that we had a decent retracement. Since its fundamental/news driven, the technical analysis wont really work here.  --- 1hr shows the top formation quite clearly. The nearest support of 42576 if broken will open up a free-fall gap of 952pts till the next decent support at 41624. If that happens we can start taking bearish trades. --- Nifty50 chart pattern is not bearish even after the blip today. The nearest support is at 17976 and the next support is 3% lower at 17429. Interestingly this 3% gap between 2 SR zone is similar to banknifty as well showing a vulnerability. If the indices can hold its ground very well we will not have a snowballing effect.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 04 May 2023 - expiryWeekly Analysis NSE:BANKNIFTY has gone up by 1.58% ~ 678pts from last Thursday to today. It has taken out 2 crucial resistance points in the process and nearing the ATH now. Really impressive performance - the banks in India are standing out with their outperformance. Global financial institutions are melting down and many US banks are trading less than 50 to 60% below their ATHs --- Today's Analysis Banknifty opened inline today and had a parabolic upside move, something that we usually see during range breakouts. At present banknifty is not in a range, so the price action could even be due to short covering. Of the 0.86% gained today, 0.71% aggressive move came between 14.15 to 15.10 - once the HDFC declared its results. Since today was an expiry day, the last 1 hr move would have shocked many.  43500 CE option chart would have amazed many by a 530% upmove between 14.15 to close. When the VIX is low, volatility is at its lowest point - the option buyer gets a rag-to-riches kind of story like this every week. The same spike was available on 18200 CE Nifty50. I was not really interested in fishing for these opportunities even though the risk:reward looked interesting. Mainly because I prefer to sell the options first rather than buy. --- 15mts TF is showing today's move quite prominently. Once it took out the swing high of 02 May there was no stopping. Most of the option traders would be frustrated as the moves are coming only in the last 1 hr - this would spoil their trading plans. Also during low volatility & low option premium periods - positional trading gives far more returns than intraday. --- 1hr TF shows the new higher-high that got formed. In yesterday's report we discussed the possibility of the same happening. What is more surprising is how it happened today even after FED raised interest rates to 5.25% & SP:SPX tanked 0.7% overnight. --- NSE:NIFTY has also created a higher-high and closed above 17976 conclusively. The next resistance is at 18419
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
Banknifty: Brace yourself for 43000.BankNifty is poised to potentially achieve a new high above the 43000 level. Our analysis indicates that it has been consistently making higher highs, while failing to establish a new low, indicating a trending market for the past few days. We have observed heavy put writings on levels below 42900, suggesting that a little bullish momentum could still provide opportunities to enter on retracement around the 42860 to 42920 range. Currently, I am holding at 42800 and am already in profit. I will be closely monitoring the 42921 to 42938 range, where a double top formation could signal a potential reversal. However, for this scenario to materialize, we will need to break below the 42781 level to confirm a bearish outlook. closely observing the market to see how it unfolds.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by Doinel33
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 26 APR 2023I am sure most of the traders would be surprised with the kind of bullish price action we saw after 10am. Since SP:SPX closed -1.58%, NDQ -1.89% yesterday - most of them including me expected NSE:NIFTY and NSE:BANKNIFTY to close in deep red today.  The gap down opening at 42559 was perfectly at the support level and from there we wont only 163pts down to reverse the direction & sentiment. We had a rally of 1.01% ~ 426pts from the LOD. The price action at the SR level is worth mentioning as we spent 55mts there before breaking out. There is no surprise with banknifty closing in green as bullish is the prevailing trend on the 1hr chart - but to have outperformed the US markets is real something.  Although I do not know what is the reason - it is worth researching on as the US market dips were due to the banking sentiment yesterday - First republic bank, UBS. This literally had no impact on our banks is something thats worth mentioning. --- Nifty50 had a similar chart with banknifty but it looks more positive. It has caught up to the recent swing high of 13th April indicating the weakness in IT may have got overshadowed by other performers. --- 15mts chart is now looking bullish again after yesterday's subdued performance. The next resistance is seen at 43012. The support of 42576 which held its ground today will give the bulls a lot of hope today. --- 1hr is also looking strongly bullish. The independent islands formed by the gap-ups shows the strong momentum too. Although hard to believe - banks in India are proving to be very strong & resilient to global bad news. My question is are the foreign institutional investors also thinking so?
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 24 APR 2023By 09.15 around 90% of traders would have guessed how NSE:BANKNIFTY is going to trade today. Thats because NSE:ICICIBANK had an excellent quarterly results to boast for. The predictability of banknifty is, one leading bank is enough to pull up the sentiment of others. Same on the downside as well. Opening was gap up at 42469, and it took a while before it started climbing to the resistance zone. Till 12.40 there was no directional bias - banknifty was maintaining the opening gap and not yielding ground. There was no attempt to close the gap too, meanwhile NSE:NIFTY went to slightly negative zone. Just compare the price action of banknifty vs nifty50, banks did not show any weakness at all whereas nifty50 was unable to maintain the gap. --- From 12.40 banknifty took-off breaking the resistance of 42576 very easily, It just required a small upmove of 287pts to get rid of this important resistance. There was also a test of support at 14.35 to 15.05 - but the momentum was too strong and bank nifty held its ground. I am starting to wonder how are these banks able to provide this stellar results? How are Indian firms able to outperform the global peers so efficiently and effortlessly? Unbelievable. The global banking fear of Silvergate, SVB, Credit Suisse has not lifted a finger in India. Not even a glitch! --- 15mts TF get a new bullish tone after today's move and the resistance getting broker. This temporarily gives the bull the edge from the rangebound trade we had till 21st Apr. --- 1hr chart is scaling new heights, with the next resistance seen at 43012. You would have noticed banknifty usually uses gaps to move the distance from 2022 onwards. Only rarely we see banknifty making huge moves during the day. This has cooled off the options premium again, I shorted few PUT options today very well knowing that they are already near the fair value. I was not surprised to end the day in losses as there was no further decay left in the options I traded. Literally pointing that option-selling is getting very unattractive at low volatility levels.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
NIFTY 50Nifty it's following it's FIB level along supported by trendline Nifty : 17550 is support, Nifty hurdle 17666 then 17717 & 17777 VWAP of series is near to 17635, we are near to the same Nifty 17600 call formed a Doji and making lower high - lower lows from last six days, so need to negate for swings Nifty 17600 put moving in between 45 to 100, so only above 100 any chance of dips in market Below 45, index can head towards 17717 & 17777 Disclaimer : Posts are for educational purposes only ; not any buy or sell recommendations. Please consult your financial advisor for initiating any trades
NSE:NIFTY
by YashhikaAggarwall
clear head & shoulder in bankniftyIn the case of #BankNifty, we can see that the pattern has recently emerged, with a clear head and shoulders formation that is currently in the process of inverting. In 5 minute chart we can clearly see The left shoulder was formed, followed by a sharp drop and a bounce-back that established the head of the pattern. This was followed by a pullback that formed the right shoulder, with the neckline running through the range of 42110-42140. If the neckline is broken decisively, it would confirm the inverted head and shoulders pattern, and indicate a potential bullish reversal in the market. In this scenario, traders may consider entering long positions with a target of 42555 or even higher.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by Doinel33
2
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 20 APR 2023 ExpiryNSE:BANKNIFTY has gained 0.29% ~ 123pts from the last Thursday to today. Except for the 1st hourly strong candle on 17th, the rest of the trading was range bound with a slight positive bias. The range banknifty traded in (max swings) indicated below. It just had a maximum swing of 1.28% and this explains why the options premium had no air in it. --- NSE:NIFTY on the other hand fell 1.14% ~ 203pts this week. The 1st candle of 17th basically set the tone for this week. The rest of the trades were contained within the shadow of this 1hr candle.  --- 20th April Analysis BankNifty is struggling to break-out from this level. Might be its taking a rest before the next move - but as it stands its out-performing Nifty50 quite strongly. Even though bank nifty was unable to take out the recent swing high, the downside protection is seen as quite strong. No matter what happens - bank nifty is not falling to the 41624 levels. Nifty50 on the other hand is going through a weak sentiment, triggered by the IT QoQ results. --- Looking at the option's premium data I strongly felt we have a down-trend post 12.30 - but the lows were strongly protected on both the indices. I must say my debit spread again went to zero ! --- 15mts chart is looking strong as ever, today's price action has confirmed that bulls are still in control. Yesterday I was of the impression that the support of 41624 could get taken out by 20th or 21st - thats because of a weak global sentiment. Seems like bank nifty has no intention to give up the gains! --- 1hr chart is also looking quite strong, the 14.15 candle of today (+156 pts) ensured that the swing-low of 42034 is not getting taken out. Also this candle gave so much of confidence to the bears - I could say with confidence that this move ensured even the Nifty50 is closing in green today! To view all the 7 charts visit viswaram. com
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 19 APR 2023NSE:BANKNIFTY had a narrow range based trade today with a minor negative bias. Yesterday's swing low was breached by 13.40, but it does not pose a major scare yet! The pattern may look bearish on the 5mts TF, but it actually isnt. Banknifty is comparatively outperforming the Nifty50 and NiftyIT index for the last 3 days. NSE:BANKNIFTY did not have enough momentum to take out the swing high or breach the 42576 levels. This along with the weak sentiment in Nifty50 would have prompted the bulls to take a small break today. There was no violent price moves or support/resistance breaks - this again ensured that the option prices remain low on the penultimate day of weekly expiry. --- The unusual low options premium in bank nifty options are nudging traders like me to switch back to Nifty50 options. I am hoping that this decoupling of banknifty with nifty50 may not last long and the volatility will normalize in the days ahead. --- The 15mts chart has not turned bearish yet. What we see could just be a consolidation. If banknifty is planning to reverse direction at this level - the the first support of 41624 has to be taken out in the next 2 days. Only if the support is taken out quickly, the momentum will favor the dip. --- 1hr chart is still looking strong, the 2 prominent gap-ups standing out boldly. It might be interesting to watch out how the global markets react to the EURO, UK CPI data today. If there are more rate hikes in pipeline - then we may have a weak global sentiment again!
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 18 APR 2023One thing I noticed this week is the variance in volatility of Nifty50 vs BankNifty. On 99 out of 100 trading days - Banknifty used to have a higher volatility than Nifty & you know what higher volatility brings to the options trading. Yes - option premium anomaly. Probably this variance was there earlier too, since I trade on BankNifty all the time - I rarely check the Nifty50 and FinNifty option premiums. But from the begining of April series - the option premiums were unusually low. I suspected it could be due to the high number of holidays this month. The reality was something different, NSE:BANKNIFTY was trading in a stable manner and the choppiness was visible in Nifty - this uncertainty made Nifty50 more susceptible to unusual option premiums. Banknifty stayed in a range today, the price moves from open to 13.05 was perfectly inline with the trend that was set from the last 3 sessions. Let me zoom out and highlight it. See the blue line, its almost a perfect straight line, the price action after 13.10 caused a blip. A fall of 387pts from the HOD to the LOD.  And why I said bank nifty was showing more signs of stability, this fall got arrested and the final closing was flat with a greenish tint. Whereas NSE:NIFTY showed weakness today also, not because of the IT sector (In fact IT was up 0.59%).  --- 15mts shows no major weakness so far. The chart is still bullish. As long as 41624 is still intact - the chart will not reverse direction. --- 1hr also is looking decently good, Just the 13.15 candle stands out from the trade today. If NSE:NIFTY shows further weakness ahead - I am not quite sure how long NSE:BANKNIFTY can stay in green. --- Just like we started discussing Finnifty Expiry from the last week - lets do it every Tuesdays henceforth. I took the expiry trades today & once the HDFC- NSE:HDFCBANK merger completes - it will be really exciting to trade NSE:CNXFINANCE because the top 4 weightage providing stocks will be the same. So we can take part in 2 expiry days in the same week. This is a blessing for anyone who is actively following the financial sector & banks in India. NSE:CNXFINANCE stayed in the range from the open to 13.25 today. The breakdown from the range came at 13.30, but anyone who looked at the red candles would have taken the trade in the short side. This fall also did not last that long, the LOD was at 13.45 and we closed more or less near the lows. The anomaly came in when the banks were doing good, but the HDFC & BAJFINANCE, BAJFINSV were pulling the index down. Thats why we had a flat day for NSE:BANKNIFTY vs red day for Finnifty. FinNifty support is at 18722 which is where it took support today. Yesterday also the first hourly candle took support at this same level. If this breaks the next support comes at 18458.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
Basics of Option's Delta: With ExamplesOption's DELTA represents the change in price of an option with respect to change in price of an underlying. Let's understand briefly with the help of Nifty example. 1️⃣ In the above Nifty example, 17750 is an At the Money CE option. Delta of ATM CE is near 0.5 Which means that if spot moves 10 points, 17750 CE will move 5 points. Normally ATM options are highly volatile options. 2️⃣ 17700 is slightly In the Money CE. Delta is 0.7, means if spot moves up 10 points, the CE option will move up by 7 points. Volatility is fairly high in this one too but less compared to 17750. ⚡If you open the chart of the above options, you will see spikes with lot of wicks above and below the candles (if market stays around these levels). Also, there will be a lot of breakout/breakdown failures over the swing highs and lows in the intraday. This is due to highly volatile nature of ATM options. 3️⃣ 17650 and 17600 are deeper In the Money CE options. You can see that the delta is around 0.9 It means that if index moves 10 points, these CE option will move 8-9 points also. These options are less volatile compared to ATM options. ⚡The deeper the CE option, the higher would be the delta, but the value of Delta never exceeds 1. You should note that deep ITM options just behave like the underlying Futures. Means a 1-point movement in the underlying equals 1 point move in the option. So, if you don't want to trade futures for some reason, you can trade with deep ITM options. ⚡⚡Remember that Delta varies as the market moves. Ex if market moves down by 100 points, in this example, then Delta of 17650 CE will become 0.5 as it will be ATM at that point. This behavior along with higher Theta of ATM needs more attention. ⚡Needless to mention, the Delta of Out of the Money CE options remains less than 0.5 and it keeps on decreasing as we move deeper into OTM CE options. Ex Delta of 17900 CE is 0.05 while publishing this post on the expiry day. This is the reason that an OTM CE will have bare minimum movement with respect to movement in the underlying. Disclaimer: I don't call myself an option expert and I am not much into complex option strategies. But this is the least that one should know as an option trader. Do like for more informative posts in the future. Regards
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by Bravetotrade
21
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 13 APR 2023 ExpiryWe will start with the weekly analysis first, that is what happened in the series 7th to 13th April. The revised format is to provide an executive summary per week. This will benefit you for further research. Since 7th April was holiday, I have taken the closing price of 6th April as starting point. We had a 2.8% ~ 1148pts rally in this week. Let me zoom out and provide a perspective of what this means. If you notice we had a breakout from the 41311 levels which was the swing high of 6th April. Also notice how we broke the channel upper band. The beauty of break-outs are that the final leap will be intense - notice how we moved 367pts just in the closing hour today. The real momentum picked up once we crossed the 41624 level which was the swing high from 6th March 2023. Note the M like pattern formed then. And what followed from the was a fall to the 38690 level. From there bank nifty came back strongly & finally took out this resistance today. One particular strike ie 42000 CE stands out today, let me pull its chart here We had a rally of 3335% ie up 129pts from Rs4 today. The real power of options explained in just 1 strike! --- Coming back to the daily analysis now. Bank nifty opened at 41680 and fell for the first 5mts. From there it maintained a flattish pattern till 12.35 near the 41624 support/resistance zone. It was quite clear that if we break out from this level we will have huge momentum. However I was still looking at the bearish side. My analysis made me think bearish & plan that way. Once we started breaking out at 12.45 - there was no stopping. The momentum favored the breakout. Even though I was inclined to take a bullish position, I did not. I simply did not have enough confidence and this is where the market wronged me. As I stated earlier, 42000 CE was in my radar at 4.30 level - the magic by which it closed at 132 level still shocks me - an opportunity lost. For the option sellers who would have sold the 42500 CE and upwards never felt threatened as those strikes did not surge like the 42000 one. --- Now the 1hr chart is also screaming bullish, at least it is out of bear's hold for now. 41600 & 41800 both are safely breached. As most stock markets are skewed in favor of the bulls i.e everyone wants the stock market to go up. So when we see out-performance more people will join in and add funds - the classic FOMO effect. Since tomorrow is a holiday, we would need to wait for Monday to see further action. If we do not get any negative news from the global markets - bank nifty will be rocket-powered next week too.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram