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Sobha (W): Bullish, Breakout ConfirmationThe stock has decisively broken a 17-month angular downtrend line, signaling a major change in character. The underlying momentum on higher timeframes (Weekly & Monthly) is strong, suggesting this is the start of a new bullish leg. 📈 1. The Long-Term Context - The 2024 Peak: After hitting its All-Time High (ATH) in June 2024 , the stock entered a prolonged 10-month correction. - The 2025 Bottom: This downtrend found its bottom in April 2025 , and the stock has been in a reversal/recovery phase since. - The Resistance: This recovery was consistently blocked by a strong, angular resistance trendline formed from the June 2024 ATH. 🚀 2. The Decisive Breakout (This Week's Action) This week, the 17-month pattern was broken: - The Move: The stock decisively broke out and closed above this long-term angular resistance trendline for the first time. - The Surge: This breakout was confirmed with a +5.10% surge for the week, backed by 1.2 Million in total weekly volume. - Volume Context: This breakout comes after a period of low, consolidating volume, which often precedes a significant move. 📊 3. Key Technical Indicators The underlying momentum on higher timeframes strongly supports this breakout: - EMAs: Short-term Exponential Moving Averages are in a "PCO" (Price Crossover) state on both the Monthly and Weekly charts, confirming a bullish trend. - RSI: The Relative Strength Index is rising on both the Monthly and Weekly timeframes, showing that buying strength is building and sustaining. 🎯 4. Future Scenarios & Key Levels to Watch This breakout provides a clear road map based on identified levels: 🐂 The Bullish Case (Momentum Continues) - Trigger: If the current momentum is maintained, the breakout is confirmed. - Target: The first major target is the ₹2,060 level, which represents the next significant resistance zone near the 2024 highs. 🐻 The Bearish Case (Re-test Scenario) - Trigger: The initial momentum is lost, and the stock pulls back to verify the breakout. - Confirmation: A "re-test" where the stock drops to touch the old resistance trendline, which should now act as new support. - Support: This re-test level is at approximately ₹1,620 . A bounce from this level would be a secondary, high-conviction buy signal.
NSE:SOBHALong
by Learn_with_Pth0mas
Thangamayil (M): Strongly Bullish, Blue-Sky BreakoutThis is a high-conviction breakout. The stock has broken out of a year-long consolidation base, created a new all-time high, and is supported by explosive volume and powerful fundamental results. 📈 1. The Long-Term Context (The "Big Picture") - Logarithmic View: On a long-term logarithmic chart, this move is a continuation of a major uptrend. - The Consolidation: After hitting its previous All-Time High (ATH) in October 2024, at ₹2,567.50, the stock entered a year-long sideways consolidation. - Drying Volume: During this phase, volume "dried up," which is a classic bullish sign of seller exhaustion and accumulation by new buyers. 🚀 2. The Decisive Breakout (The November 2025 Event) - The Surge: In the first week of November 2025, the stock shattered this consolidation with a massive +40.17% surge. - High-Conviction Volume: This move was backed by exceptional, non-speculative volume of 3.67 Million shares, confirming strong institutional interest. - New ATH: This surge pushed the stock into "price discovery" mode, creating a new all-time high. 📊 3. The Fundamental Catalyst (Why it's Breaking Out) This powerful technical breakout is fully supported by blowout fundamental news, which gives the move high validity: - Massive Profit: The company reported a sharp Q2 profit turnaround (from a net loss last year to a ₹58.5 Cr net profit). - Record Sales: The company also announced record-breaking sales in October , crossing the ₹1,000 Cr mark for the first time in a single month. 🎯 4. Future Scenarios & Key Levels - Bullish Indicators: The short-term EMAs are in a PCO state and the RSI is rising , confirming the momentum is strong and on the side of the buyers. 🐂 The Bullish Case (Price Discovery) - Trigger: If this momentum is sustained, the stock is in "blue-sky" territory with no overhead resistance. - Target: Projected target of ₹4,150 is a logical next-level based on technical extensions. 🐻 The Pullback Case (Support Test) - Trigger: If the momentum pauses or a pullback occurs (which is healthy after a 40% surge). - Support: The most critical level to watch is the old resistance-turned-support zone at ₹2,560 - ₹2,570 . A re-test and "bounce" off this level would be a textbook confirmation of the new support and an ideal entry point for those who missed the initial breakout.
NSE:THANGAMAYLLong
by Learn_with_Pth0mas
Hero MotoCorp: Wedge Signals Wave 5 ExhaustionAfter a strong five-wave impulse from ₹3,344 to ₹5,717, Hero MotoCorp appears to have completed a textbook rally, with Wave (5) showing all signs of exhaustion. The final leg developed into a rising wedge , a common terminal pattern that often precedes short-term pullbacks. Momentum loss is also visible on the RSI , which has been forming lower highs within a descending channel — a classic sign of fading strength. From an Elliott Wave perspective, the advance from Wave 4 (₹4,195) to Wave 5 (₹5,717) aligns closely with the 1.0 Fibonacci projection of internal Wave (1), suggesting a complete internal impulse. Should a correction unfold, the 0.382–0.5 retracement zone (₹4,810–₹4,530) — measured from the entire rally (₹3,344–₹5,717) — could become a potential accumulation area for the next bullish sequence (Wave 2 or B). Summary : Wave 5 likely completed inside a rising wedge RSI bearish divergence confirms exhaustion Next potential buy zone: ₹4,810–₹4,530 Structure remains bullish over the long term, but a short-term correction looks due Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
NSE:HEROMOTOCOShort
by WaveXplorer
Fibonacci in Action – A Lesson from J.K. CementFibonacci retracement is one of the simplest yet most consistent tools for studying how markets correct within trends. To understand it better, here’s a clean example from J.K. Cement . After a strong uptrend from the March 2025 swing low to ₹7,565 , the stock began to retrace. Notice how price behavior respected the Fibonacci structure: It bounced from the 0.382 level , illustrating a temporary reaction point. Later, it faced resistance near 0.236 , where rallies often stall during corrective phases. The 0.5 retracement zone now serves as a classic testing ground that often helps define trend continuation or deeper correction. Even the RSI pattern offers insight — price forms a higher low while RSI makes a lower low, a textbook positive reversal setup that often aligns with trend studies. The purpose of this example isn’t prediction, but to show how Fibonacci ratios and RSI behavior interact — highlighting rhythm, structure, and market psychology in motion. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
NSE:JKCEMENTEducation
by WaveXplorer
Godrej Consumer Products: Wave (4) Double Combo Testing SupportWave (4) seems to have evolved as a double combination (W–X–Y), with prices now testing the W–Y trendline support near the 0.618 retracement (~₹1,096). The structure has been slow and overlapping — typical of a Wave (4) correction. RSI too rests at channel support , hinting at momentum exhaustion. A steady hold above this zone could pave the way for Wave (5) , but confirmation is still pending. Invalidation remains below ₹979.50 . Strategy: Watch price behavior near the current support zone. Patience here pays more than prediction. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
NSE:GODREJCPLong
by WaveXplorer
2
Ramco Systems (M): Extremely Bullish, Multi-Decade BreakoutThis stock is displaying one of the most powerful bullish technical signals possible: a decisive breakout from a 25-year angular resistance trendline . This is a major, long-term secular trend change. 📈 1. The Long-Term Context - The 25-Year Pattern: Since its peak in April 2000, the stock has been held down by a massive, multi-decade angular resistance trendline. - The Bottom & Reversal: The stock formed its ultimate bottom in March 2009. Since then, it has been in a slow, 16-year recovery, forming a pattern of Higher Lows against this unbreachable resistance. - Volume Contraction: Volume was declining (or contracting) during the final phases of this consolidation. This is a classic sign of seller exhaustion right before a major breakout. 🚀 2. The Decisive Breakout In October 2025, this 25-year pattern was shattered: - The Surge: The stock surged +26.61% in a single month. - High-Conviction Volume: This move was backed by a massive spike in volume ( 2.77 Million shares), confirming strong institutional interest and the validity of the breakout. - The Close: Most importantly, the stock closed firmly above the 25-year trendline, signaling the "lid" has finally been broken. 📊 3. Key Technical Indicators The underlying momentum supports this new long-term trend: - RSI: The Relative Strength Index is rising, showing that strong buying momentum is accelerating. - EMAs: The short-term Exponential Moving Averages are in a "PCO" (Price Crossover) state, confirming the new bullish trend is in effect across timeframes. 🎯 4. Future Scenarios & Key Levels to Watch This breakout provides a very clear road map. 🐂 The Bullish Case (Confirmation) - Confirmation: The "gold standard" for a breakout of this magnitude is a successful "re-test." We want to see the price pull back to the old trendline (now new support, around ₹560 ) and "bounce," confirming the breakout is genuine. - Target: Once confirmed, the next logical technical price target is ₹787 . 🐻 The Bearish Case (Breakout Failure) - Trigger: If the momentum is not sustained, and the breakout is a "fakeout" (a "bull trap"). - Confirmation: The stock fails to hold its gains and closes back below the broken trendline (around ₹560 support level) on high volume. - Target: This failure would invalidate the immediate thesis and likely lead to a sharp sell-off.
NSE:RAMCOSYSLong
by Learn_with_Pth0mas
City Union Bank (M): Strongly Bullish, Testing All-Time HighThis is a powerful long-term breakout setup. After a 4.5-year consolidation, the stock has broken its primary resistance and is now challenging its 2020 all-time high. The bias remains strongly bullish as long as the key support at ₹200 holds. 📈 1. The Long-Term Context - The 2020 Peak: After hitting its All-Time High (ATH) in January 2020, the stock experienced a significant fall, losing nearly half its value. - Multi-Year Base: For the next 4.5 years (from late 2020 to 2025), the stock traded in a wide, sideways consolidation range. - The "Lid": This entire consolidation was capped by a formidable horizontal resistance trendline (formed since Nov 2020) at approximately ₹200-₹210 . 🚀 2. The Current Breakout (The Decisive Move) - Initial Breakout: The stock first broke above this multi-year resistance in June 2025. - Confirmation: After the breakout, the stock successfully "re-tested" this old resistance level multiple times, confirming it had flipped into new support. - The Surge: The surge in October 2025 confirmed this new support was valid, pushing the stock decisively away from the breakout zone and confirming the move was not a "fakeout." 📊 3. Key Technical Indicators - Volume: Volume contracted (dried up) during the long 3-month consolidation phase before the October surge. This is a classic bullish sign of accumulation. - Long-Term EMAs: The stock is trading well above its 100-day and 200-day EMAs, confirming the long-term trend is firmly bullish. - Short-Term Indicators: Note: Following a minor pullback from the October highs (from ~₹240 to ~₹228), the very short-term indicators have cooled off. The short-term EMAs and RSI (Relative Strength Index) have dipped from "overbought" to neutral, which is a healthy reset before a potential next move. 🎯 4. Future Scenarios & Key Levels to Watch The path is now defined by two critical levels: 🐂 The Bullish Case (ATH Breakout) - The Hurdle: The final hurdle is the ATH resistance zone from January 2020 (approx. ₹249 ). The stock is currently less than 10% below this level. - Trigger: A decisive, high-volume breakout and close above the ₹250 mark. - Target: A successful breakout would put the stock into "blue-sky" price discovery target of ₹335 . 🐻 The Bearish Case (Breakout Failure) - Trigger: The stock fails to break the ATH, and momentum fades. - Confirmation: A high-volume rejection from the ATH, followed by a break below the critical support. - Support: The most important level to watch is the old resistance-turned-support at ₹200 . A break below this would invalidate the bullish breakout thesis.
NSE:CUBLong
by Learn_with_Pth0mas
Navin Flourine (M): Strongly Bullish, Multi-Year BreakoutThe stock has decisively broken out of a multi-year consolidation phase, backed by exceptional volume. This move signals the end of its sideways trend and the potential start of a new, major bull market. 📈 1. The Long-Term Context - Primary Uptrend: The stock was in a powerful primary uptrend from July 2013 to May 2021. - Multi-Year Consolidation: Since May 2021, the stock has been in a wide and long sideways consolidation phase. - The "Lid": This entire consolidation was capped by a formidable horizontal resistance line formed in September 2022. This level rejected multiple breakout attempts over the last three years. - Volume: Volume during this long consolidation was average, suggesting a balance between buyers and sellers as the stock built its base. 🚀 2. The Decisive Breakout (The October 2025 Event) This month, the entire multi-year pattern changed: - The Surge: The stock surged +23.06% in a powerful, decisive move. - High-Conviction Volume: This breakout was accompanied by 6.9 Million in volume, confirming strong institutional interest and the validity of the move. - The Close: Most importantly, the stock closed firmly above the multi-year horizontal resistance, signaling the "lid" has finally been broken. 📊 3. Key Technical Indicators The underlying momentum strongly supports this bullish breakout: - RSI: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is rising, showing that buying strength is accelerating. - EMAs: The short-term Exponential Moving Averages are in a "PCO" (Price Crossover) state, confirming the new bullish trend. 🎯 4. Future Scenarios & Key Levels to Watch ⚠️ A Note of Caution (The "Fakeout" Risk) The primary risk after a powerful breakout is a "fakeout" (or "bull trap" ). This happens when the price breaks out, lures in buyers, but then fails to hold its gains and falls back below the broken resistance level. 🐂 The Bullish Case (Breakout Confirmation) - Confirmation: The bullish momentum continues. The "old resistance" level (around ₹4,938 ) must now prove to be the "new support." A small pullback to retest this level, followed by a bounce, would be the strongest confirmation. - Target: If the breakout is sustained, the next logical price target is ₹7,445 . 🐻 The Bearish Case (Breakout Failure) - Trigger: The momentum fails, and the breakout is confirmed as a "fakeout." - Confirmation: The stock falls and closes back below the critical resistance-turned-support line. - Target: This failure would trap the new buyers and likely lead to a sharp sell-off, with the price falling back toward the lower end of its old trading range, starting with the ₹4,495 level.
NSE:NAVINFLUORLong
by Learn_with_Pth0mas
PayTM (M): Strongly Bullish, Pending BreakoutThe stock has completed a major trend reversal from its 2024 all-time lows. It is now challenging a critical, multi-year resistance level. All technical indicators suggest that pressure is building for a significant bullish breakout. 📈 1. The Long-Term Context - Major Reversal: After hitting its all-time low in May 2024, the stock has reversed its trend and has been in a sustained uptrend for over a year. - Multi-Year Base: This entire move has built a massive base, leading to the current showdown at a key horizontal resistance line formed in January 2022 . - Recent Consolidation: For the past three months, the stock has consolidated just below this major resistance. The volume has been "drying up" during this period, which is a classic bullish sign of seller exhaustion. 🚀 2. The Current Setup (The Decisive Move) - Price Compression: The stock is currently coiling in a tight range, less than 5% below this critical multi-year resistance. - Building Momentum: The surge in October ( +15.96% on 63.19M in volume ) showed a strong rejection of lower prices and a powerful move back up to test the "lid" of this pattern. 📊 3. Key Technical Indicators The underlying momentum strongly supports a bullish resolution: - RSI: The Relative Strength Index is in a clear rising state, showing that buying strength is building. - EMAs: The short-term Exponential Moving Averages are in a "PCO" (Price Crossover) state, confirming the bullish momentum is intact across timeframes. 🎯 4. Future Scenarios & Key Levels to Watch The setup provides two very clear scenarios. The immediate action is to watch for the breakout. 🐂 The Bullish Case (Breakout Confirmation) - Trigger: A decisive, high-volume close above the horizontal resistance line (approx. ₹1,350 - ₹1,370 ). - Confirmation: This would confirm the multi-year base is complete and the stock is entering a new, long-term bull market. - Target: The next logical price target would be ₹1,725 . 🐻 The Bearish Case (Breakout Failure) - Trigger: The stock fails to break the resistance and momentum is not sustained. - Confirmation: A high-volume rejection from this level, followed by a break below the recent consolidation. - Target: This failure would likely see the stock fall to retest its immediate support level at ₹1,090 .
NSE:PAYTMLong
by Learn_with_Pth0mas
HindPetro (M): Strongly Bullish, Breakout in ProgressThe stock has decisively broken out of a 10-month accumulation phase on high volume, signaling a potential new leg up. The bullish indicators are all aligned, and the focus now shifts to whether this breakout can be sustained. 📈 1. The Long-Term Context - Consolidation Phase: The stock has been in a broad sideways trend since January 2024, building a large base. - Key Resistance: A horizontal resistance line formed in September 2024 has acted as a "lid," rejecting all price advances for the past year. - Drying Volume: volume has been "drying up" during this consolidation. This is a classic sign of seller exhaustion and accumulation by buyers. 🚀 2. The Decisive Breakout - The Surge: In October, the stock finally broke this pattern with a decisive 7.35% surge. - High-Conviction Volume: This move was backed by massive, high-conviction volume of 106.56 Million shares, confirming strong institutional interest and the validity of the breakout. - The Close: Most importantly, the stock closed firmly above the horizontal resistance trendline , turning that old "lid" into a new potential "floor" (support). 📊 3. Key Technical Indicators The underlying momentum supports this bullish move: - EMAs: Short-term Exponential Moving Averages are in a "PCO" (Price Crossover) state, confirming strong, positive momentum. - RSI: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is rising, showing that buying strength is accelerating with the price. 🎯 4. Future Scenarios & Key Levels to Watch ⚠️ A Note of Caution Instead of a "double-top," the key risk to watch for is a "fakeout" (or a "look above and fail"). Also watch for bearish divergence 🐂 The Bullish Case (Breakout Confirmation) - Confirmation: The stock must now hold above the old resistance level (the breakout point). A successful retest of this level would be the strongest bullish confirmation. - Target 1: ₹565 - Target 2: ₹700 (if upside momentum accelerates) 🐻 The Bearish Case (Breakout Failure) - Trigger: If the current breakout is a "fakeout," the price will fail to hold and will drop back below the resistance line it just broke. - Target: A failure here would likely see the stock fall to retest the immediate support level of ₹375.
NSE:HINDPETROLong
by Learn_with_Pth0mas
Tata Power (M): Coiling Spring Ready for an ATH Breakout?Tata Power is displaying a classic and very clean technical setup. After its parabolic run to an All-Time High (ATH) in September 2024 (around ₹490 ), the stock has entered a healthy, multi-month sideways consolidation. This is a bullish "coiling spring" or "accumulation" pattern. 📊 The Technicals 1. The Range (The "Box"): The battle lines are clearly drawn. - Resistance: A strong horizontal supply zone at the ATH, around ₹405 - ₹415 . - Support: A firm demand zone and the bottom of the range at ₹365 . 2. Volume is Key: The most bullish signal here is the volume contraction . Throughout this sideways "box," the volume has been drying up. This indicates that sellers are becoming scarce, and the stock is being absorbed by buyers in preparation for the next move. 3. Momentum Indicators: - EMAs: Short-term EMAs are in a "PCO" (Price Crossover) state, showing bullish momentum. - RSI: The RSI is rising, indicating that buying strength is building up under the surface. 4. Recent Price Action: The surge in October (+4.18% on high volume) was an attempt to break this resistance. It failed, which confirms that the ₹415 level is a formidable barrier that will require significant volume to overcome. 🎯 The Scenarios This is a "wait and watch" setup where we let the price tell us what to do next. - 🐂 THE BULLISH CASE (Trigger) I am watching for a decisive daily close above the ₹415 resistance level . This must be accompanied by a high-volume spike (higher than the October attempt) to confirm that the supply has finally been absorbed. - Target 1: ₹490 . - Next Target: Price discovery. - 🐻 THE BEARISH CASE (Invalidation) If the stock fails to break out and instead breaks down with conviction, the setup is invalidated. - Trigger: A daily close below the ₹365 support level . - Target: A deeper correction. Conclusion: The indicators and volume profile suggest a bullish resolution. The stock is coiling, and the pressure is building. The smart money is waiting for the high-volume breakout above ₹415 for confirmation.
NSE:TATAPOWERLong
by Learn_with_Pth0mas
HindCopper (M): Very Bullish, but at a major inflection pointThe stock has successfully completed a multi-decade base breakout and is now challenging its final long-term resistance. The momentum is bullish, but a new ATH will require a confirmed break of the 2010 trendline. 📈 1. The Long-Term Context (The "Big Picture") - Parabolic Uptrend: After hitting its all-time low in March 2020, the stock has been in a massive bullish uptrend, surging over 2,170% from its bottom. - Brief Correction: This major move was followed by a healthy, brief downtrend/consolidation that found its low in May 2025, allowing the chart to reset for its next move. - Recent Rising Volume: Critically, trading volume has been rising significantly in recent months, confirming strong investor interest in this new trend. 🚀 2. The Current Breakout (The Decisive Move) The stock is currently navigating two of the most significant resistance levels on its multi-decade chart: 1. Jan 2012 Horizontal Resistance: A major structural level that capped all rallies for over 12 years. 2. Jan 2010 Angular Resistance: A long-term downtrend line that forms the final barrier to a new price discovery phase. In September and October, the stock achieved a major milestone: it broke out and closed above the 12-year horizontal resistance line . During October, the stock successfully retested this old resistance as new support . While it finished the month with a 3.28% gain on exceptionally high volume , it also formed an "inverted hammer" candle. This candle at a new support level is a sign of a "battle," where sellers tried to push the price down but buyers ultimately stepped in, defending the breakout. 📊 3. Key Technical Indicators The underlying momentum on higher timeframes supports a bullish resolution: - RSI: The Relative Strength Index is rising on the Monthly chart, indicating strong, sustained buying momentum. - EMAs: The short-term Exponential Moving Averages are in a "PCO" (Price Crossover) state on the Monthly timeframe, confirming the long-term trend is powerfully bullish. 🎯 4. Future Scenarios & Key Levels to Watch The stock is currently coiled less than 15% below its final angular resistance from 2010. 🐂 The Bullish Case (Final Breakout) - Trigger: A decisive, high-volume breakout and close above the 2010 angular resistance trendline . - Confirmation: This would confirm the start of a new, long-term bull market and put the stock into "blue-sky" price discovery. - Target: The next logical technical price target is projected to be ₹415 , with a high probability of a move toward a new ATH. 🐻 The Bearish Case (Breakout Failure) - Trigger: The stock fails to break the 2010 trendline and, more importantly, loses its new support (the 2012 breakout level). - Confirmation: A high-volume close below the ₹320 support level. - Target: This failure would signal a fake breakout and could lead to a sharp correction, retesting the next major support level at ₹225 . Conclusion This is a high-conviction breakout setup. The successful retest of the 12-year resistance is a very bullish sign. All eyes should now be on the 2010 angular trendline . A break above it would be the final confirmation, while a failure and drop below ₹320 would invalidate the immediate bullish thesis.
NSE:HINDCOPPERLong
by Learn_with_Pth0mas
Vedanta (M): Bullish, but at a critical decision point.The stock is currently consolidating in a tight range after a historic, multi-decade breakout. The price is now coiling for its next major move. The key is whether the old resistance at ₹490 holds as new support. 📈 1. The Long-Term Context (The "Big Picture") - Historic Breakout: After a long sideways trend, the stock finally broke its 14-year resistance line (dating back to April 2010) and subsequently set a new All-Time High (ATH) in December 2024. - Consolidation Phase: Since that ATH, the stock has not rallied further but has entered a healthy sideways consolidation. This is a common pattern where a stock "digests" its massive gains and builds a new base. - Failed Attempts: As you noted, there have been several attempts to break out of this new, smaller consolidation channel, but all have failed so far. 🔍 2. The Current Setup (The Decisive Range) This consolidation has created two very clear levels that define the stock's next move: - Short-Term Resistance: The ATH set in late 2024 (around Sep/Dec). - Critical Support: The old long-term resistance level at ₹490 . This is the most important level to watch. The recent surge this month ( +5.96% on 236.66 Million in volume ) was another test of the top of this channel, which was not yet successful. 📊 3. Key Technical Indicators The underlying momentum supports a bullish resolution: - RSI: The Relative Strength Index is rising, showing that buying strength is quietly building. - EMAs: The short-term Exponential Moving Averages are in a "PCO" (Price Crossover) state, signaling positive momentum. 🎯 4. Future Scenarios & Key Levels to Watch The price action in the coming days and weeks is critical. Monitor these two potential scenarios: 🐂 The Bullish Case (Continuation) - Trigger: A decisive, high-volume breakout and close above the short-term resistance (the post-2024 ATH). - Confirmation: This would confirm the consolidation phase is over and the next leg of the primary uptrend has begun. - Target: The next logical price target is projected to be ₹650 . 🐻 The Bearish Case (Breakdown) - Trigger: The breakout fails, and selling pressure pushes the stock below the critical support floor. - Confirmation: A high-volume close below ₹490 . This would be a significant failure, as the "resistance-turned-support" level would have broken. - Target: This breakdown would signal a deeper correction. Conclusion The bullish indicators (RSI, EMAs) combined with the recent high-volume surge suggest buyers are accumulating. The primary focus should be on the ₹490 level . As long as it holds, the bias remains bullish, and this is just a pause before the next rally to the ₹650 target.
NSE:VEDLLong
by Learn_with_Pth0mas
BHEL (D): Strongly Bullish, on a high-volume trendline breakoutThe stock has shown a significant character change, breaking a long-term corrective downtrend with exceptional force. All short-term and long-term indicators are aligning, suggesting a new bullish leg has begun. 📉 1. The Long-Term Context (The "Big Picture") - Massive Run-Up: After a parabolic 1,720% surge from its March 2020 bottom, the stock hit a major peak in July 2024. - Corrective Downtrend: This was followed by a healthy 8-month correction (Jul 2024 – Feb 2025), which allowed the stock to build a new base. - Reversal Pattern: In recent months, the stock has reversed this trend by forming a clear pattern of Higher Lows , indicating that selling pressure has been absorbed and accumulation has taken place. 🚀 2. The Current Breakout (Today's Decisive Action) Today's price action is the most significant bullish signal for the stock this year. - High-Volume Surge: The stock surged +6.48% on massive volume of 75.43 Million shares, indicating strong institutional interest. - Major Trendline Break: The price gapped up above the angular resistance trendline (formed since the July 2024 high) and, most importantly, closed firmly above it . - Short-Term Breakout: This move also broke and closed above a minor, short-term resistance, adding to the bullish conviction. 📊 3. Key Technical Indicators The underlying momentum across all timeframes supports this breakout: - RSI: The Relative Strength Index is rising on the Daily, Weekly, and Monthly charts, showing broad-based, building momentum. - EMAs: Short-term Exponential Moving Averages are in a "PCO" (Price Crossover) state on all three timeframes, confirming the trend is strongly bullish. 🎯 4. Future Scenarios & Key Levels to Watch The path forward is now defined by two clear levels: 🐂 The Bullish Case (Breakout Confirmation) - Immediate Hurdle: The next major test is the horizontal resistance at ₹265 . - Confirmation: A decisive close above ₹265 would confirm the breakout and open the door for a significant rally. - Target: If this momentum is sustained, the next logical price target is the ₹300 level. 🐻 The Bearish Case (Fake Breakout) - Trigger: If today's move is a "fakeout," the price will fail to breach ₹265 and fall back below the broken angular trendline. - Confirmation: A close back below the gap-up level (today's open) would be a bearish sign. - Target: This failure would likely see the stock fall to retest its closest support at ₹245 . Conclusion Today's high-volume, gap-up breakout above a multi-month downtrend line is a powerful bullish event. The indicators are all aligned, suggesting this is the start of a new upward move. The key level to watch for confirmation is ₹265 .
NSE:BHELLong
by Learn_with_Pth0mas
MRPL (D): At a Critical ResistanceOverall Context and Current Setup After reaching its all-time high in February 2024, MRPL entered a pronounced downtrend. However, a potential reversal has been forming since March 2025, marked by the stock establishing a clear pattern of Higher Lows . The stock is currently challenging a critical, long-term horizontal resistance line that originated in October 2024. This level has repelled multiple breakout attempts in the past. Today's Price Action Today, the stock showed significant bullish intent, surging 4.26% on massive volume of 31.2 million shares . Despite this strength, the price action revealed a key struggle: - The stock broke above the resistance line intraday but failed to secure a close above it. This indicates that significant selling pressure still exists at this level. Bullish Indicators Several indicators support a potential bullish breakout: - Volume: Buying interest has been increasing, with surging volume over the past few days. - SMA: A Golden Crossover (e.g., 50-day SMA crossing above the 200-day SMA) confirmed just three days ago, signaling potential long-term bullish momentum. - EMAs: Short-term Exponential Moving Averages are in a positive crossover state (showing bullish alignment) across the Monthly, Weekly, and Daily timeframes. - RSI: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is rising on all three timeframes, indicating strengthening upward momentum. Potential Scenarios The current setup presents a classic conflict between strong bullish indicators and a powerful overhead resistance. 1. Bullish Scenario: The primary confirmation signal to watch for is a decisive daily close above the resistance line, supported by high volume. If the stock can achieve this, it would signal a confirmed breakout, with the next potential target near the 195 level . 2. Bearish/Consolidation Scenario: If the breakout fails and momentum wanes, the stock is likely to pull back. The most significant support level to watch would be at 138 , which aligns with the recent structure of higher lows. Conclusion: The battle at this resistance line is critical. The price action in the coming days will be key to determining whether the bullish momentum is strong enough to finally break through or if the stock will reject this level once again.
NSE:MRPLLong
by Learn_with_Pth0mas
Vintage Coffee (D): Breaks Out of Consolidation on High VolumeAfter a powerful 125% rally since March 2025, Vintage Coffee (VINCOFE) entered a healthy sideways consolidation phase in July. Today, that consolidation has been decisively resolved to the upside, signaling a potential continuation of the primary uptrend. Today's Decisive Breakout The stock has been capped by a stubborn horizontal resistance trendline since July, with multiple previous breakout attempts failing* at this level. Today's price action (Wednesday, October 29, 2025) was different: - Strong Price Surge: The stock rallied by +7.82% . - High-Volume Confirmation: The move was supported by a strong volume of 7.53 million shares. - Key Resistance Breach: Most importantly, the stock closed above the resistance trendline , a significant technical victory for the bulls. This breakout is particularly convincing because it follows a classic volume pattern: volume dried up during the consolidation and then surged in the past couple of days, fueling today's successful move. Underlying Technical Strength The breakout is well-supported by key momentum indicators on the Weekly and Daily timeframes: - The short-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are in a bullish Positive Crossover (PCO) state. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in a rising trend. Outlook and Key Levels to Watch With the consolidation now broken, the path of least resistance is higher. - Bullish Target: If this bullish momentum is sustained, the next logical area of resistance and potential target is the ₹180 level. - Critical Support: The old resistance level, around ₹155 , is now the most critical new support zone. As you rightly noted, the ideal scenario would be a successful re-test of this ₹155 level. A bounce from this "resistance-turned-support" would provide the strongest confirmation for the next leg up.
NSE:VINCOFELong
by Learn_with_Pth0mas
Adani Green (D): Surges 10.79% But Fails at Key ResistanceAfter being in a downtrend since June 2024, Adani Green is showing clear signs of a potential trend reversal. Since March 2025, the stock has been building a bullish base by forming a constructive pattern of Higher Lows . However, this new uptrend is now facing its most significant test. Today's Battle at Resistance The stock's upward progress has been blocked by a major horizontal resistance trendline . Today's session (Wednesday, October 29, 2025) saw a powerful attempt to break this level: - The stock surged by an impressive +10.79% . - This move was backed by a very strong volume of 36.23 million shares . Critically, despite the significant buying pressure, the stock was unable to close above this key resistance level , indicating that sellers are still actively defending this zone. A Mixed Technical Picture The technical indicators paint a picture of a new uptrend that is still fighting to confirm itself: - Bullish Signals: - The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is in a rising trend across the Monthly, Weekly, and Daily timeframes. - A long-term SMA Golden Crossover has been in effect for the past month. - Lagging/Cautionary Signals: - The short-term EMAs have not yet formed a bullish Positive Crossover (PCO) state on the Daily and Monthly charts. This suggests the new uptrend is still in its early and unconfirmed stages. Outlook and Key Levels to Watch The stock is at a classic "prove it" moment. The battle at this horizontal resistance is the key. - Bullish Scenario: A decisive, high-volume close above the resistance trendline is required to confirm the breakout and validate the new uptrend. If this occurs, the path could open for a move toward the *₹1,445 level. - Bearish Scenario: If today's move was a "bull trap" and momentum fades, a rejection from this level could send the stock back to test its recent support, with a potential downside to ₹995 . Given that the stock is attempting to reverse a significant downtrend, this resistance is a major hurdle. Caution is warranted until a successful breakout is confirmed with a strong daily close above the line.
NSE:ADANIGREEN
by Learn_with_Pth0mas
2
Gujarat Gas Ltd – A Major Correction Nears CompletionAfter a volatile two-year decline, Gujarat Gas Ltd (NSE: GUJGASLTD) may be approaching the final leg of a prolonged corrective structure — a setup that aligns beautifully across both monthly and daily timeframes. The Bigger Picture – Monthly View From the 2016 lows near ₹94 , Gujarat Gas advanced in an impressive impulsive manner , peaking around ₹786. What followed has been a deep and time-consuming correction that unfolded as a double zigzag (W–X–Y) structure. Wave W bottomed at ₹403.55 in early 2021. Wave X retraced sharply to ₹689.95 — a typical counter-trend rally. Wave Y then extended lower and now appears to be terminating near ₹360. This region coincides with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the entire 2016–2021 uptrend, an area often associated with exhaustion in larger corrective waves. Price action has also turned subdued, with narrower candle bodies and waning momentum — a sign that the multi-year correction may be approaching completion. Zooming In – Daily Structure The daily chart reveals the internal five-wave pattern within Wave C of Y nearing its end. The final sub-wave (5) has reached a confluence between 0.618 (₹411.7) and 0.786 (₹389.1) retracements, forming a technical Buy Zone. However, traders may consider waiting for bullish confirmation before acting. Watch for reversal signs such as Hammer, Bullish Engulfing patterns to confirm that buyers are stepping in from support. Importantly, the RSI shows bullish divergence — a classic sign that downside momentum is losing steam even as price makes marginal new lows. Confluence and Context Structural Alignment : Monthly W–X–Y correction appears mature. Fibonacci Support : Key retracement cluster at ₹389–₹412. Momentum Shift : RSI divergence adds conviction. Price Trigger : Wait for bullish candle confirmation from the Buy Zone. Risk Clarity : Invalidation below ₹372. Together, these factors indicate that the correction could be ending, setting the stage for a medium-term trend reversal. The Road Ahead If price sustains above ₹440–₹460 after a confirmed reversal signal, it could mark the beginning of a new upward phase — potentially the start of a larger impulsive leg. Failure to hold above ₹372 would, however, invalidate the bullish case and shift focus back to ₹340–₹360. In essence: Gujarat Gas is positioned at a confluence of structural, Fibonacci, and momentum supports — a zone where long-term corrections often end and new trends begin. Confirmation through bullish price action could validate the start of a new recovery leg. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
NSE:GUJGASLTDLong
by WaveXplorer
7
Sai Silks (D): Confirms Major Breakout with Successful RetestAfter a long downtrend that ended in May 2025, Sai Silks (Kalamandir) has been in a clear trend reversal, establishing a constructive pattern of Higher Lows . This new uptrend has now achieved a significant technical milestone. The Breakout and Confirmation The stock's primary challenge was a long-term horizontal resistance trendline that had been in place since May 2024. This level has now been decisively cleared in a two-step process: 1. The Breakout (Yesterday): The stock successfully broke out and closed above this key resistance, signaling a major victory for the bulls. 2. The Confirmation (Today): Today, this breakout was put to the test. The stock gapped up at the open, but bears tried to push the price back down, resulting in a re-test of the old resistance line . In a very strong bullish sign, the level held. The stock closed positive at +2.28% on massive volume of 72.88 million shares, confirming that the old resistance has successfully flipped into new support. Broad-Based Technical Strength This powerful "Breakout and Retest" pattern is strongly supported by a complete alignment of momentum indicators. The short-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are in a Positive Crossover (PCO) state, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is rising across all three timeframes: Monthly, Weekly, and Daily . This multi-timeframe alignment confirms that the underlying momentum is broad, synchronized, and strengthening. Outlook and Key Levels to Watch The successful re-test is a high-conviction signal that the primary trend has shifted and is poised to continue upwards. - Bullish Target: If this bullish momentum continues, the next logical area of resistance and potential price target is the ₹270 level. - Critical Support: The most immediate support level to watch is now ₹191 . A failure to hold above this level would be a cause for concern and would suggest the breakout has failed.
NSE:KALAMANDIRLong
by Learn_with_Pth0mas
State Bank of India – Breakout, but With CheckpointsWeekly Chart View State Bank of India has staged a strong breakout above the consolidation zone near ₹835, with weekly RSI showing healthy momentum and no bearish divergence yet. This breakout suggests that Wave 3/C is in progress , keeping the short-term outlook bullish. Key Observations: Wave 2/B: The recent sideways move looks like a triangle. While triangles are unusual for Wave 2, they are common in Wave B — raising the possibility that this could be part of a larger corrective flat. Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance sits at the Wave B high (₹875.45) , followed by the all-time high (₹912). The ATH retest will be critical in determining whether the structure continues impulsively or morphs into a flat. Support & Invalidation: The breakout remains valid as long as price stays above ₹786.55 (Wave 2/B low). A decisive break below this level would invalidate the current bullish structure and force reevaluation. Momentum: RSI is supportive, showing strength and no sign of divergence yet. Summary: The bias remains bullish in the short term , but this rally will be tested at the higher resistance levels. If the stock pushes through the ATH, we may confirm an impulsive sequence. If not, a 3-3-5 flat could be in play. Either way, this is a key checkpoint zone for SBI. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
NSE:SBINLong
by WaveXplorer
SBI Life (D): Breaks Consolidation, Now Faces All-Time High TestAfter a long consolidation phase that began in May 2025, SBI Life has delivered a decisive breakout. This move signals a potential end to the sideways action and a resumption of the primary uptrend, but it now faces its most significant hurdle. 1. The Breakout from Consolidation Today's session (Monday, October 27, 2025) was a clear win for the bulls: - The stock gapped up at the open, clearing the consolidation range's resistance. - It surged to close with a gain of +3.44% on a solid volume of 2.87 million shares. This action has propelled the stock to less than 2% below its major long-term resistance level formed by the All-Time High (ATH). 2. The Bullish Undercurrent The potential for a successful breakout to new highs is strongly supported by a powerful alignment of momentum indicators across all major timeframes (Monthly, Weekly, and Daily): - Short-Term EMAs: All three timeframes are in a bullish Positive Crossover (PCO) state. - RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is also in a rising trend on all three timeframes. This multi-timeframe alignment shows a broad and synchronized bullish momentum building under the key ATH level. 3. A Critical Warning: The "Bull Trap" Scenario As you've insightfully noted, a breakout to a new high is not automatically a "buy" signal. A critical "what-if" scenario must be monitored closely, as the price is approaching a level that could form a Double Top or Triple Top (a bearish reversal pattern). Traders should watch for these two warning signs at the ATH level: 1. Bearish Divergence: The price pushes to a new high, but the RSI fails to, creating a lower high. This is a classic sign of weakening momentum. 2. Low Volume: The breakout occurs on low or unconvincing volume, suggesting a lack of genuine conviction from institutional buyers. If this combination occurs, it would signal a high probability of a "bull trap" and a potential bearish reversal. Outlook This is a time for patience and careful observation. The stock has broken its immediate resistance but now faces the final boss. Before any action, the key is to wait for the price-action at the All-Time High. A failed breakout with divergence would be a bearish signal. A confirmed , high-volume breakout would be the true signal that the uptrend is resuming.
NSE:SBILIFE
by Learn_with_Pth0mas
BPCL (D): Forms Bullish MorningStar, Challenges Major ResistanceAfter reversing from a short-term downtrend, BPCL (Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd) has flashed a powerful bullish signal. However, this newfound momentum is now running directly into a major, long-term resistance trendline that has capped its progress, setting the stage for a critical battle. The Bullish Setup: A Morning Star at Support Today's price action (Monday, October 27, 2025) was highly constructive for the bulls: - Price & Volume Surge: The stock rallied +3.80% on a strong volume of 11.77 million shares . - Classic Reversal Pattern: This move completed a "Morning Star" candlestick pattern . This is a classic three-candle bullish reversal pattern that often signals the bottom of a downtrend and a new shift in momentum. Broad-Based Technical Strength This bullish pattern is strongly supported by a powerful alignment of indicators across all major timeframes (Monthly, Weekly, and Daily): - Short-Term EMAs: All three timeframes are in a bullish Positive Crossover (PCO) state. - RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is also in a rising trend on all three timeframes. This multi-timeframe alignment indicates that the underlying momentum is broad, synchronized, and strengthening. The Immediate Hurdle: Long-Term Resistance Despite these bullish signals, the stock is now positioned less than 2% below a major long-term resistance trendline formed since its All-Time High. This line represents a significant historical barrier for the stock. Outlook and Key Levels to Watch The stock is at a clear "prove it" moment. The outcome of the battle at this resistance will likely determine the next major move. - Bullish Breakout Scenario: A decisive close above the long-term resistance on high volume would confirm the breakout and validate the Morning Star pattern. This would signal a continuation of the new uptrend, with a potential next target of ₹375 . - Bearish Rejection Scenario: If the stock fails to breach this resistance and momentum fades, it could be rejected. The first key support level would be the bottom of the Morning Star pattern, around ₹325 . In conclusion, the price action in the coming days is critical. All eyes should be on this key resistance level for either a confirmed breakout or a rejection.
NSE:BPCLLong
by Learn_with_Pth0mas