Strong hands defending 25900–25950 bulls carry index above 26000The last two sessions have told a very clear story about who is in control of this market. Friday started as a negative-bias day, but at 3 pm Nifty printed a violent 5–15 minute thrust of nearly 170 points and completely flipped the tone. That late burst was not random noise – it was the breakout leg of this whole move.
The important detail is where that move paused. The large 3 pm candle on Friday left behind a reference zone around 25,900–25,950, with an intraday base near 25,913. On Monday, the index opened with only a mild gap-up and then spent the entire session respecting that level. On the 5-minute chart not a single candle managed a close below the 25,913 area. Every small dip into that band was bought, and from 11:30 onwards Nifty bounced off this zone and went on to make a series of higher highs and higher lows through the day.
This tells us two things. First, the buyers who stepped in aggressively late on Friday were not short-term scalpers; they are still defending their territory. Second, Friday’s last 15 minutes were not just short-covering – they marked the start of a new leg in the prevailing uptrend.
There was also a clear technical hurdle on the chart: the 26,009 region, which had earlier acted as a rejection point, and the broader 25,700–25,750 band that had been tested multiple times. Today the index finished the session around 26,014, closing above that prior supply zone. That is a constructive signal – the market has absorbed selling where it previously failed and is now accepting prices above 26,000.
On the daily timeframe, Nifty is riding a clean positive structure. Shorter moving averages are stacked above the longer ones and sloping up, confirming trend strength. The last several sessions have formed a rising sequence of lows from the 25,350–25,400 region up to the 25,900 area, while price keeps leaning against the 26,000 ceiling. Effectively, the index is carving out a rising base with horizontal resistance – an “ascending-triangle style” behaviour just under the old high zone. As long as 25,700–25,750 holds on a closing basis, this pattern favours an eventual breakout rather than a collapse.
The weekly chart only reinforces that picture. Nifty has logged multiple positive weeks in a row and is now trading very close to its record zone from late 2024. The broader setup is that of a market recovering from a deep correction earlier in the year and now grinding back towards the top of the range. With weekly momentum turning up and price holding above key moving averages, the burden of proof is on the bears.
Flows and macro data back this up. Foreign institutional investors have swung back to the buy side in the last session, and domestic institutions and mutual funds continue to provide strong support, more than offsetting earlier foreign outflows. That steady domestic bid has been one of the main reasons the index has been able to climb back to the 26,000 handle even when global cues have occasionally been shaky. Corporate earnings have been broadly supportive, especially in financials and select large caps, and recent upgrades from major global houses on India’s medium-term outlook are adding another layer of confidence.
Globally, the environment is not euphoric but it is no longer as hostile as it was earlier in the year. US indices are off their extremes, commodity prices are not in a runaway spike, and the dollar has cooled from its peak, all of which reduces pressure on emerging markets. At the same time, there are enough macro uncertainties left to keep traders disciplined – which is why every move into new high ground will still be tested.
From a trading perspective, the key reference zones now are:
Intraday support (5-min): 25,913 – as long as this area holds, dips on smaller timeframes are likely to find buyers.
Short-term support (daily): 25,700–25,750. A daily close below this band would be the first sign that the current breakout attempt is failing.
Immediate resistance: 26,100–26,200, which lines up with the previous all-time high zone. A strong close above this pocket would open the door for a fresh leg higher.
Deeper support (swing): 25,350–25,400 – the origin of the recent leg, and a line the bulls will not want to surrender.
Psychologically, the tape over the last two sessions shows a market where bad news and intraday dips are being used as opportunities to build long exposure rather than exit it. Friday’s late surge signalled that strong hands were stepping in aggressively; Monday’s action confirmed that they were willing to defend their entry zone and push the index to a higher close above prior resistance. Until we see a decisive break back below 25,700 with heavy volume and persistent selling, the path of least resistance remains up.
In simple terms: Nifty is in a healthy uptrend, strong money is clearly visible behind the last move, and the market just proved it can hold above 26,000. The next big test will be how it behaves when it gets closer to the 26,100–26,200 record area – but for now, the bulls still have the ball.
