Can you predict such falls? Fibonacci Retracements - (bad audio)Market fall may have taken few by surprise, but followers of price action techniques should have this scenario in their plan. Trend analysis (or Elliot wave analysis) along with Fib Retracements could be of enormous help if used in tandem with price action. They at least give you minimum target and levels, so that you are able to ride the trend and also do not make impulsive entry decisions.
(Disclaimer: the audio quality is really bad. Somehow the system is not allowing external mic and using internal mic which is capturing lot of noise. Tried typical methods but not working. If you have solution let me know)
Community ideas
Trader's Query - What capital I need to trade better ?Query: I am new to trading. How much capital I need to trade? What I need to trade better?
Trading account: Anybody can open trading account and it needs a small process.
Trading capital: Capital depends on how you trade. If you are completely new, start with small capital as per your financial strength. Because at the early stage you will explore the order types and you will be learning how to use each order type. And also at the initial stage taking trade with confidence is a challenge. For example in this chart lets say your planned entry was 1830 and you missed to enter at the first chance. Then price fall down and again the same level comes. At that point unless you know the trend strength, taking entry is risky as price may be reversed. And by experience you understand about trend in a better way.
Trading Knowledge: Technical knowledge is important to trade better. And when you practice the knowledge with discipline, then you can be profitable.
Chart : Chart is needed to analyse & trade in live market.
Trading Strategy: You need trading strategy which gives you entry, stop and targets. Your trading strategy should be back tested at least for 6 months. Most traders back test their strategy for minimum 4 yrs. I have shared a link, refer it to get an example strategy.
Trading plan: You should be ready with trading plan before market opens as it will reduce the confusion, tension during trading.
What other things help you to trade better?
There are lot of indicators available. You can use any indicator if you understand and back test it. Also updating your knowledge continuously by learning daily will help you to trade better. I have shared a link below, refer it to know about indicator. Dont use too many indicators. Too many indicators will confuse you. 2 or 3 indicators are more than enough.
And lost but the most important thing in trading is, you need proper mind set to trade better.
Review your trades : Daily or weekly review how you traded. It will help you to find your strength and weakness as a trader.
What not to do ?
Dont trade during important news announcement as that time movement will be volatile.
Trading is simple if your strategy is simple with good accuracy and your mind is simple without fear or greed. All the best...
Trader's Queries - How to gain confidence in trading?Query : Although I have read many books on trading and learnt technical analysis and many chart patterns I couldn’t get enough confidence to trade.
How to gain confidence in trading?
Take few mins and answer honestly.
Are you giving your best in trading?
Are you treating trading as a lottery?
Do you have discipline? ----- Now watch the video and write your comment below....
Trader's Query - Over tradingQuery :
How to control over trading? In last 4 sessions I made huge losses
I keep on placing orders, once I get loss.
Trading type : Intraday
Trading Instrument : Index
Reason :
Lack of discipline & knowledge
Lack of fear about money
How to rectify:
Trade based on well tested strategy
Less or no trades on news days
Targets vary depending on market situation
Follow trading rules
Example for trading strategy
When you are ready to pay brokerages, lose money because of over trading, you can spend your time, energy and money to learn about trading.
Trading ExecutionThis post is about simple entry,stop & exit,adapting the market movement. It will be useful to new traders. Watch it fully so that you wont miss important points.
Most of the time we do analysis and market give completely different scenario to handle. In this post I have explained about the trading execution using my yesterday’s analysis. I have explained the entries & stop.
Analysis - Reliance – Double top resistance @ 2400 – 2410. Mildly bearish. Price didn’t fall and went up.
Analysis-HDFC – Trend line support – neutral. Today took support & gave 35 pts move. I have marked the entry in the video.
Analysis-Infy – Consolidation –neutral. Today gave break out of 50 pts.
Analysis-TCS – Trend line support – neutral. Took support.
Analysis-ICICIBank - @ trend line support – neutral. Today gave 15 pts move.
Analysis-HDFCBank – Consolidation – no trend. 40 pts move today.
Analysis-SBIN – Consolidation – no trend. Gave upside break out for 10 pts.
Analysis-Kotak Bank - @ trend line support –neutral. Took support and gave 50 pts move.
Analysis-Axis bank – Descending triangle – bearish. Gave upside break out.
I have shared the link in which I have done the analysis.
Predict Crude oil's next movement with Volume activityPrice action is the Key.
Use Ultra high volume setup/condition for additional confirmation purposes only.
A combination of Daily and Hourly time frames works well.
Highly recommended only if the Daily time frame is Trending.
Lower time frames say less than the hourly chart gives the confused or mixed-signal, so it is recommended to use for overnight positions.
Take trades based on your own risk appetite.
The indicator used is Volume Spread for VSA
Queries are Welcome
How to use Chart Patterns indicators Tradingview has recently introduced new Technical Indicators that can be used to identify chart patterns that can be used to predict future price movements and determine the entry point to a position.
These indicators can be used to find the following chart patterns: Bullish Flag, Pennant, Double Top, Triple Top, Head and Shoulders, Triangle, Rectangle, and Wedge
Wedge is one such pattern that I discussed in this video. After watching this video, you will be able to apply and use this indicator on your charts. A wedge is a price pattern on a price chart that is defined by converging trend lines. Technical analysts regard wedge-shaped trend lines as useful indicators of a potential price reversal.
The best part about these indicators is that you do not have to manually look for these patterns, the alagorithm will do that job for you. I believe this will greatly help beginners in anaysing charts as a lot of manual work is now off your shoulders. Try experimenting with these indicators and I'm very sure it will make a positive impact on the trades you take.
Do let me know of any other stocks where you've discovered similar patterns using these technical indicators.
Why is Closing Price important? Why do I prefer taking trades at 3:25 p.m.?
Most stock prices rise significantly after 3:25 or fall just before 3:25, forcing us to enter at a lower price. Second, we simply want to be as close to the closing price as possible because many intraday positions are squared off at 3:20 p.m. and the price remains somewhat volatile for the next 5 minutes. In my opinion, the most accurate price is at 3:25 pm, which is reflected in the stocks as well, as most of them close at or near the price at 3:25 pm.
Until trading resumes on the following trading day, the closing price is considered the most accurate valuation of a stock or other security. There is a widely held belief that amateurs always open the market and professionals always close it. Opening prices can be influenced by a variety of factors, including global news, gap ups and downs, economic news, and so on. Furthermore, there is always a larger player than you working in the markets alongside you. By "bigger players," I mean people with a lot of money, also known as institutional investors or "smart money." They trade between 9:15 a.m. and 3:30 p.m., the same time as you. They face the same risk when dealing with billions of shares as you do when dealing with a single share. At night, anything can happen. He is basing his holdings on the day's closing price. As a result, it is the most important price. They are certain that it will not result in a gap the following day.
The primary goal of looking at the closing price is to ignore intraday price movement because it allows us to avoid tracking the market for the entire day, make fewer but higher quality decisions, enforce discipline, and reduce the likelihood of false breakouts. There are numerous examples of the market trading in the positive all day but then dipping into the negative at the end. When such movements occur, it indicates that professional money is at work at the time. In most cases, they are probably better at predicting future events than most people, so they are relying on the closing price of their holdings.
When looking at breakouts, we do not consider it very significant if the stock crosses above a certain level and then returns to the previous level. There are numerous intraday breakouts occurring in the markets, and tracking them is, in my opinion, a futile exercise because it is difficult to predict whether they will hold or not.
As only a few people can spot a breakout in live markets, the closing price is the earliest option to enter a trade. 90% of traders will begin researching the stock after the market closes, putting you ahead of the competition and allowing you to capitalise on gap-up opportunities. It aids in determining whether or not the trend is sustainable.
As a result, as you'll see, most of the charts are plotted solely on the closing price, implying that people's attention is drawn once the price closes above a certain level.
How to find SL levels using BREAKOUT INDICATORLearn how to determine SL levels using BREAKOUT INDICATOR.
This indicator not only helps in finding BREAKOUT trades but also helps you determine SL levels, target levels and much more. Combining with 44EMA you can take your trading to the next level.
The best part is that it works on any script, be it cryptocurrencies, commodities or indices.
Never take a SL during the first 15 minutes of market opening, as chances of reversal are high and market is very volatile during that time.
Use alerts on Tradingview to know whenever SL hits.
How good are staggered Investments?HOW GOOD ARE STAGGERED INVESTMENTS?
BACKGROUND
We all know the catchy word “SIP” which stands for Systematic Investment Plan. This may well be the most frequently used word in the Mutual Fund business and for savings as well as investments in general. And there is nothing wrong about it as a large retail investor base would not be able to invest in various avenues of investment in a lump sum manner unless they receive a bumper or out of the ordinary windfall gains.
INTENT
The intent of this post is to introduce the readers to a variant of the SIP which I recently experimented with in the months of Nov - Dec 2021. As mentioned in the earlier para, I received an out of the ordinary large amount in Nov 2021 and I was exploring the avenues for placing it such that I do not risk more and yet am able to get a modest return. The aim was to protect the capital and not earn index beating returns.
WHAT DID I DO
During the course of my weekly analysis, I analyze the Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty scrips in particular using monthly, weekly, and daily timeframes and also several other scrips that form part of my watchlist. While doing so, I realized that there were several scrips that were at a good distance from their swing high which in many cases were the ATH levels when Nifty had hit 18604. The retracements were very significant so I thought why not make small investments in some of the scrips that I had identified.
At that time, I also decided to experiment with staggered or phase-wise but not SIP type of investments in these shares. Beginning 8-11-21, I started the process of such investments and between then and now, I have made 6 such investments. I ensured that I did not blindly add to the losers but had a basis in my mind for the positional trades.
During Nov 2021, Nifty made a low of 16782 and during Dec 2021, Nifty made a low of 16410. On 5-1-22, at the time of writing this post, Nifty is at 17837. This is a good 1427 points above the Dec 21 lows and is now up 8.7% which is a great ROI in 2 months. However, I just reviewed the status of these investments and they have at an aggregate level gone up by 6.36%.
The highest ROI so far is in Mirza Intl @ 68.88%.
The lowest ROI so far is in Tata Consumer @ -10.83%.
CONCLUSION
Obviously, I have no issues with the highest ROI scrip. Neither do I have an issue with the lowest ROI scrip as I have not added to the losing scrip even at lower levels as I did not want to increase the exposure.
My expectations from these unexpected tranches of investments are not much so I am quite happy to receive a 6% gain as of now. I have not beaten the Nifty ETF but that was never the objective.
Many of the scrips where I have invested in the “staggered basket” are those where I would not have ordinarily invested as my universe of investible scrips is limited. So this has helped me know the unknowns as well and that scrip has given the highest ROI!
I am still sitting on some funds out of this lump sum so I can add to the position at any available opportunity even though the indices are at much higher level than what they were in the previous months.
I can move the entire amount out of equity and place them in a Debt Fund and bring it back in when the market / scrips are at attractive levels. This is the approach that I would prefer the most though I am undecided on the course of action for now.
My live experiment with the “staggered” form of investing in my view has been a good one so far and I am satisfied with the outcome. In fact, it is one of the ways to spread the risk and learn to identify good scrips at attractive price levels using technical and or fundamental analysis since the view is positional to long term.
I hope the above helps you know how I prefer to trade the markets and keep exploring the opportunities available in the market to make incremental returns. This post has been shared for educational and informational purposes only.
I welcome your thoughts and insights in case you have also experimented with such/similar way of trading/investing.
Happy Trading/Investing,
Umesh
5-1-22
Not SEBI Regd.