Kotak Mahindra Bank - Range ConsolidationKotak Mahindra Bank Limited offers a range of banking services covering commercial and investment banking on the wholesale side and transactional/branch banking on the retail side.
Book Value Per Share: 562.55
Dividend Yield: 0.08
TTM EPS: 86.40
TTM PE: 21.12
P/B: 3.25
Sector PE: 25.38
Positives:
Company with high TTM EPS Growth
Effectively using Shareholders fund - Return on equity (ROE) improving since last 2 year
Efficient in managing Assets to generate Profits - ROA improving since last 2 year
Growth in Net Profit with increasing Profit Margin (QoQ)
Increasing Revenue every Quarter for the past 4 Quarters
Annual Net Profits improving for last 2 years
Book Value per share Improving for last 2 years
Company with Zero Promoter Pledge
Companies with current TTM PE Ratio less than 3 Year, 5 Year and 10 Year PE
Brokers upgraded recommendation or target price in the past three months
Decrease in NPA in recent results
Mutual Funds have increased holdings from 9.45% to 9.63% in Sep 2023 qtr.
Negatives:
Declining Net Cash Flow: Companies not able to generate net cash
Seems to be overvalued vs the market average
Lagging behind the market in financials growth
Net Profit TTM Growth % - Low in industry
Price to Book Ratio - High in industry
Promoters have decreased holdings from 25.94% to 25.93% in Sep 2023 qtr
NOT A RECOMMENDATION. JUST FOR EDUCATION.
Parallel Channel
08 Jan ’24 — Nifty Breaks the Trendline This Time — PostMortemNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish ⬇️
Recap from yesterday: “Our stance is still neutral with equal possibilities in either direction. Since Nifty50 is following the ascending channel’s top trend line — the chances of going up look more probable. To go down — we need news flow/event as there is no technical weakness.”
4mts chart link
The gap up open today and a thrust upwards gave the false impression that we might have an up day. What happened on the contrary was a breach of the trend line. See the circled portions on the chart. At 09.47 the attempt was unsuccessful but at 10.51 the support gave away. Once we breached it, the price action started to pick up momentum.
63mts chart link
The breach of the upper trend line of the ascending channel is quite visible in the higher time frame. Ideally, it is not a pure bearish signal as we are technically still in the bull market. We are changing the stance to bearish from neutral for the ultra-short-term only. If Nifty50 manages to crawl back up the top line - we will have to reverse the stance to neutral. In case Nifty manages to fall further - it will be interesting to see how it reacts to the bottom line of the channel.
Nifty Weekly View- Three PatternsNifty Weekly View 📊
In this insightful analysis of the Nifty, we'll explore three crucial patterns that are currently dominating the charts. These patterns provide valuable insights into the future direction of this key market index. 📈🧐
1. Ascending Triangle Pattern (Yellow Highlighted) 📈
Ascending triangles are bullish chart patterns characterized by higher lows and higher highs within a narrowing range. This pattern signifies increasing buying pressure, with buyers showing a willingness to enter the market at lower prices while sellers are content to sell at higher prices. It's a strong indication of positive sentiment. 📈📈🚀
++ Nifty has formed an Ascending Triangle breakout and its in Bull control
2. Channel Formation (Blue Highlighted) 📊
An upward channel, another bullish chart pattern, takes shape when prices move within a confined range defined by parallel trendlines. The upper trendline represents resistance, while the lower trendline signifies support. This pattern reflects a balanced power dynamic between buyers and sellers, with buyers stepping in at lower prices and sellers offloading at higher prices. A clear sign of market stability. 📊💹🛡️
++ Nifty is travelling in an upward channel and approaching the upper trendline of channel plus its above the centre line of the channel. Again bull is taking control.
3. Rising Wedge (Pink Highlighted) 📉
On the flip side, a rising wedge is a bearish chart pattern where prices create higher highs and higher lows, but the upper trendline steepens more rapidly than the lower trendline. This indicates mounting selling pressure, as sellers become increasingly willing to sell at higher prices. A potential bearish signal to watch out for. 📉📉📉💔
-- Nifty has some underlying issues of forming an internal rising wedge, though it gets activated below 19200 only, so its far away from present levesls.
Now, let's discuss the potential price movement of Nifty for the remainder of 2023 based on these patterns. If Nifty manages to hold above the crucial 19,200 levels on a daily closing basis, we could witness an upward rally. 📈💼💼
Expected Targets with Dates 📆
First Target - 20,453 by 9th Oct'23 🚀🎯
A promising start to the upward momentum.
Second Target - 21,224 by 6th Nov'23 🌟💫
Steady progress towards higher levels.
Final Target - 22,420 by 26th Dec'23 🎯🎉
A potential year-end surge.
As we closely monitor these patterns and targets, remember that the world of technical analysis is dynamic and ever-evolving. Keep learning and stay tuned for further updates. Your comments and insights are always appreciated. 📚📈💬👀
05 Jan ’24 —Nifty50 takes support at the trendlineNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️
Recap from yesterday: “The first thing we had to do was to change the stance from bearish to neutral. To go bullish we need some more momentum, if it comes up in the forenoon session — I will update you via TV minds.”
4mts chart link
Two things happened today
A gap-up open - which did not make any sense.
The rejection from the trend line - that made every sense.
We repeated this earlier - our markets may be the only one that frequently opens gap-up or gap-down. The bulk of the action happens outside of the trading hours - seems like we need to grow up & mature. Today’s gap-up did not make any sense, even the opening candle. By 10.35 we lost the steam and started falling. Took a minor pause at 11.15 and then by 13.55 we went underwater.
We got a nice rejection right at the trend line between 14.15 to 14.31. We are quite sure that many traders would have thought we might be falling further and that's when the reversal came. It was so intuitive to watch Nifty50 take support at the trendline and retrace the fall. Finally, we ended the day with a gain of 0.24%
63mts chart link
Our stance is still neutral with equal possibilities in either direction. Since Nifty50 is following the ascending channel’s top trend line - the chances of going up look more probable. To go down - we need news flow/event as there is no technical weakness.
04 Jan ’24 — Unexpected reversal takes out my Stop Loss - NiftyNifty Weekly Analysis
Between the last expiry and today, Nifty50 has fallen only 99pts ~ 0.46%. Credits to the recovery today that made up 141 of the lost points. N50 also has managed to bounce off the channel top line indicating further signs of strength.
63mts chart link
Nifty Today Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️
Recap from Yesterday: “On the higher time frame, you can see how N50 is just entering the channel. If the conditions stay like this for tomorrow — we can see a good trending move tomorrow. The first threat to keep in mind is the rejection that came on 21st Dec when N50 bounced from the channel topline.”
4mts chart link
We were totally shocked to see a gap-up open of 89pts ~ 0.42% followed by a strong intent to go up. Since yesterday, we have been looking for bearish opportunities and what the gap-up open did was to take out the stop loss. Just like the 21st Dec, we got a perfect bounce off from the trend line showing sheer strength.
Bears like me got trapped and were running for cover, this made the followthrough rally much easier today. A total swing of 161pts ~ 0.75% for today. And that too when NiftyIT was flashing red and green. BankNifty took the bulk of the weight today.
63mts chart link
The first thing we had to do was to change the stance from bearish to neutral. To go bullish we need some more momentum, if it comes up in the forenoon session - I will update you via TV minds. Kindly make sure you are following @viswaram handle to get the updates via email.
Indiabulls real estate for longThe chart looks good because of following reasons:
1. Crossing above all EMAs in monthly, Weekly & Daily TF.
2. Breaking out of Parallel Channel
3. Near previous swing highs
4. Good Volumes near top line of parallel channel.
5. Good reward Ratio
Tomorrow's weekly close will decide whether the plan is activated or not.
Dharmaj- c&h breakoutDharmaj- Textbook Cup and handle formation done on daily. Went into a parallel channel while forming handle. Today slight breakout of parallel channel is done.Still Entry should be taken only after weekly close above 280 only for the target of 400.
Note: This is for educational purpose only.
Gulf Oil Lub - Falling channel patternGulf Oil Lubricants India Ltd - CMP: 464
Technically:
Falling Channel Pattern
Consolidating in a zone for some months now
Ideal time to accumulate for long term
Target 1: 558
Target 2: 673
Target 3: 838
Stop Loss: 375
Fundamentally:
Strong Promotor Holding
The Co has bought back its 14,16,667 equity shares at Rs 600 per equity share in cash on Feb'22
Consistency in Net profit
Undervalued Stock
channel breakout - GNFCPlease look into the chart for a detailed understanding.
Consider these for short-term & swing trades with 2% profit.
For BTST trades consider booking
target for 1%-2%
For long-term trades look out for resistance drawn above closing.
Please consider these ideas for educational purpose
Please note that, if there are some big targets, those are drawn thinking for long term.
GAIL - Multi-year breakout in Monthly TimeframeGAIL has showcased a remarkable multi-year (16 years) breakout, establishing itself as a standout performer in the financial markets. This breakthrough is not merely a fleeting uptick but signifies a strategic ascent by successfully breaching key resistance levels that had acted as formidable barriers for 16 years.
Worth noting - VOLUMES Surge: What sets this breakout apart is the substantial surge in trading volumes accompanying the upward move. The volume increase provides a compelling validation of the market's confidence and reinforces the conviction behind the stock's newfound trajectory.






















