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Pause

Market Reactions to Fed’s “Hawkish Pause” Market Reactions to Fed’s “Hawkish Pause” Today the Federal Reserve chose not to proceed with an 11th consecutive interest rate hike, opting instead to assess the effects of the previous 10 hikes. However, the Fed announced that it anticipates implementing two additional quarter percentage point increases before the year concludes. While the pause was largely expected, the fact that policy makers see rates at 5.6% at year-end was what caught the market off-guard. The combination of the pause with the suggestion of two more 25 basis points hikes has been dubbed the “hawkish pause”. Following the decision, stock market closing results were mixed. The Dow Jones closed more than 230 points lower, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq experienced gains of 0.1% and 0.4% respectively. The Nasdaq Composite was primarily bolstered by the gains made in AI-adjacent stocks of Nvidia and AMD. The day began with Bitcoin surpassing $26,000. However, it has since retraced to a 24-hour low of $25,791. Some analysts are predicting an inevitable drop to $25,000 based on recent cryptocurrency news that is dominated by discussions on regulation. Meanwhile, gold prices initially rose to touch $1959 per ounce in the session but later trimmed gains, trading around $1945. The dollar has weakened across the board, with the DXY down 0.32%. The NZD is the biggest mover, rising by more than one percent to a 3-week high of $0.6211. Gains in EUR and GBP were more modest, at +0.39% each.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
'RESUME' the trend journey with a 'PAUSE' candleDefinition:- As the name suggests pause candle is the candle formed in between the trend, the change is usually opposite the trend i.e. if the underlined script is moving in an uptrend then the pause candle will be of negative change and the color will be red and vice-versa. The pause candle indicates a pause in fresh positions by market participants and an entry chance for players expecting reversals. Also, it's an opportunity for new players to enter the trend i.e. for those who have missed the initial trend. Rules or Characteristics of a pause candle:- 1. Prior candles should be aggressive i.e. large candles of the opposite color. 2. It is generally of very small size as compared to the previous one and of the opposite color. 3. Volume is considerably low as compared to previous candles. 4. The RSI level of the spot where this candle originates is usually between the band of 35-75. The psychology behind the pause candle:- In the market everything has a cause and a reason similar pause candle also conveys its message to the market players. The generation of the pause candle signifies that there is fatigue among the participants who were driving the stock or are taking some break. Also, it alerts that new hands have entered into the trend and are trying to offer resistance. Those who are looking for reversals spot this candle and enter into trade with the hope of reversals, they are generally weaker hands. Bigger hands those who were the driving force of the trend also want the new player to enter the trend so that they hunt them down and resume the rally at a lower price. How to trade pause candle:- Now, as small players, we don't know what goes inside but try to predict the message through the candle. If a pause candle is formed it doesn't mean the exhaustion of trend or reversal rather indicates a pause in fresh market position. But, here the aggressive trader enters with trades opposite to the trend. At this stage, two cases arise, note talking for an uptrend:- -> The next candle's high crosses above the high of the pause candle: Maximum times this is the case that arises, here the candle after the pause candle crosses the high of the pause candle now what does this indicate? The indication is that the trend drivers or bigger hands are active again and those who have taken a position against the trend are trapped and will try to escape hence, the move will be much sharper as compared to the initial trend. How to benefit in this case? When you spot such a pause candle that is formed after a continuous trend set it to alert candle and wait for the next candle to form. If the next candle crosses the high of the pause candle take the position along the trend and your stop would be the low of the pause candle which is generally too small and ride the sharper trend which is usually equal to the initial one. -> The next candle's low crosses below the low of the pause candle: Though not arises usually sometimes it does occur, here the candle after the pause candle crosses the high of the pause candle now what does this indicate? The indication is that the trend drivers or bigger hands are in the backseat and are not seeing further upside also there is a chance that they can book profits at this level. How to benefit in this case? When you spot such a pause candle that is formed after a continuous trend set it to alert candle and wait for the next candle to form. If the next candle crosses below the low of the pause candle take the position against the trend and your stop would be the high of the pause candle which is generally too small and ride the reversal trend which is usually half of the initial one. This case comes under the reversal candlestick patterns on which earlier an article was published by me but here we are concerned about a pause candle after which rally resumes. Here, is an example of a different scenario though it doesn't match the above said cases but still the background is of a pause candle. HIL was trading above a rising trendline and suddenly breakdown the line after which we see continue 2-3 red candles following the candles a pause candle is formed with all the above-discussed properties but rather than showing the sharp downfall it again forms a pause candle but note stop loss is not triggered. Here 3-4 pause candles are formed and finally it breakdown all the low with a big red candle and then afterward we saw a huge, sharp downfall. The motive to explain the above example was that though sometimes we don't see rapid action but if your stop is not triggered and the candles are with the low volume then you can assure that a sharp move is pending and sooner or later it will happen. Note: The only constraint is to identify the correct pause candle for which you can refer to the above-said rules are very important. Sometimes the candle after the pause candle crosses both the high and low of the pause candle in that circumstance you have to check the color of the candle, for uptrend it should be green then you can take the position else if it's red then wait for the next candle, and vice-versa for the downtrend.
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NSE:NIFTYEducation
by Chaser30
5
MINDTREE, TRENDLINE BREAKOUT, PRICE-ACTION VOLUME-PROFILE,Disclaimer -: 1. FOR WHOM VOLUME PROFILE AND MY METHOD IS A LITTLE NEW OR BLURRY . I WILL SOON PUT UP AN EDUCATIONAL POST WITH DETAILS AND EXAMPLES. WE CAN HAVE A SERIES OF DISCUSSIONS THERE TOO. DO FOLLOW MY ACCOUNT TO GET NOTIFIED. 2. Do ask your questions in the comments if any. Volume Profile -: Using Volume Profile one can identify probable accumulation or distribution regions by comparing the historical Volume at Price and current Volume at Price. 2. If the current volume is low, its mostly a pause before the trend resumes 3. If the current volume is higher or equivalent to historical levels then either the trend will resume or it may reverse. If it resumes then we have more strength in trend due to more accumulation. So a breakout/breakdown will confirm in this case Firstly Mindtree has been rallying nicely with 1-2 nice accumulation regions in between. Recently there was a pause with up-sloping trend lines i:e higher highs and lows. It has just given breakout with nice volume. OBSERVATIONS 1. Recent volume as per volume profile is less compared to previous accumulation and rally which means this was not a distribution region but a small pause. Breakout of which will continue the trend nicely. 2. Since the pause was in up-sloping price action and the buying(green) volume is more than the selling(red) volume , it makes sense to assume current region was a brief accumulation i:e buying took place. Which gives us more conviction that the up-trend will continue and risk is less. TARGET WITH LOGIC 1-2 accumulations have happened since the uptrend started. Regions marked in violet. So since the current volume is comparable to previous accumulation so it makes sense to consider the expected uptrend to be of equivalent magnitude. That is more the accumulation, greater the strength, so the more the move. So I used a Fib Extension from that level till now and chose a 168% as target. But this target is above all-time-high so its a provisional target level. Entry Confirmatory breakout has happened but price is still there giving us space and favourable RR ratio to enter. So entry at CMP. MY APOLOGIES I was supposed to post this earlier but was unable to. There is still space to enter it now. STOP-LOSS Since we are expecting a nice uptrend to continue with target high enough and again as it is swing trade, a conservative stop-loss will be better Since 1950 is a nice support levels and just above the previous accumulation during 18Dec 2020- 5Mar 2021, so i would prefer the stop-loss around that level. Keep trailing stop-loss as per you strategy. Using Moving Averages with ATR(Average True Range) as buffer is one the ways. EXIT Since the target is above all time high. Its a provisional target level. So it doesn't make sense to exit at target rather hold on to it as much as possible and keep conservatively trailing stop-loss. Following can be used as exit signals or bearishness signals. 1. If there is bearish candlestick pattern in 1D timeframe, stop-loss can be trailed to a nearby support level .(Like Candle Low) 2. If there is RSI Divergence in 1D timeframe, better to exit at close of 1D since afterwards there can be long consolidation or reversal. 3. If the trailing stop-loss is hit, please exit **IF YOU LIKE MY ANALYSIS, KINDLY GIVE A THUMPS-UP AND SHARE IT IF POSSIBLE, HELPS A LOT :) **I WILL POST NECESSARY , SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS THREAD LIKE ADDITION TO POSITION, EXIT SIGNALS, BREAKOUT ETC. TO AVOID MISSING OUT ON UPDATES PLEASE REMEMBER TO FOLLOW THE POST AND MY ACCOUNT. **YOU CAN TURN ON NOTIFICATION TO BE UPDATED OF CHANGES **ANY COMMENT ON THE ANALYSIS WILL BE HIGHLY APPRECIATED. NSE:MINDTREE
MLong
by VPA_TRADER
2
PENNANT-BREAKOUT-UPTREND-PRICE-ACTION-VOLUME-PROFILEDisclaimer-: 1. FOR WHOM VOLUME PROFILE AND MY METHOD IS A LITTLE NEW OR BLURRY . I WILL SOON PUT UP AN EDUCATIONAL POST WITH DETAILS AND EXAMPLES. WE CAN HAVE A SERIES OF DISCUSSIONS THERE TOO. DO FOLLOW MY ACCOUNT TO GET NOTIFIED. 2. Do ask your questions in the comments if any. Volume Profile-: Using Volume Profile one can identify probable accumulation or distribution regions by comparing the historical Volume at Price and current Volume at Price. 2. If the current volume is low, its mostly a pause before the trend resumes 3. If the current volume is higher or equivalent to historical levels then either the trend will resume or it may reverse. If it resumes then we have more strength in trend due to more accumulation. So a breakout/breakdown will confirm in this case POC-: The red line in volume profile is called Point of Control. This is the level where max volume of transactions have taken place. IMPORTANT OBSERVATIONS-: 1. Stock formed a big triangular pattern, gave breakout and then rallied. 2. Recent it formed a flag-pennant-like pattern i:e a brief pause. 3. That can be confirmed by the volume in that region. Mark the low volume as compared to the high volume when it started rising.This confirms that the current pennant pattern was just a pause. And thus when breakout happens the uptrend will resume. TARGET WITH LOGIC-: Since its a brief pause. and within that pause buying ( green,blue) volume is more than selling (red )volume. There is a high chance the current expected up-move should be kind of equivalent to previous move (could be more too). So a Fib Extension 100% target seems feasible. ENTRY-: Entry at CMP since it has just given a breakout out of the small triangular pattern with trend-lines tested at least 3 times gives us a nice conviction. STOP_LOSS 1450 and 1165 are good support levels. But since 1450 is too close to CMP , it will be a narrow stop-loss. Thus a conservative stop-loss is better for a swing trade in 1W. So 1165 could be a good spot. Its necessary to trail stop-loss as per your strategy. You may use Moving Average with ATR(14) as buffer. EXIT Since the target is above all time high. Its a provisional target level. So it doesn't make sense to exit at target rather hold on to it as much as possible and keep conservatively trailing stop-loss. Following can be used as exit signals or bearishness signals. 1. If there is bearish candlestick pattern in 1W timeframe, stop-loss can be trailed to a nearby support level .(Like Candle Low) 2. If there is RSI Divergence in 1W timeframe, better to exit at close of 1W since afterwards there can be long consolidation or reversal. 3. If the trailing stop-loss is hit, please exit **IF YOU LIKE MY ANALYSIS, KINDLY GIVE A THUMBS-UP AND SHARE IT IF POSSIBLE, HELPS A LOT :) **I WILL POST NECESSARY , SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS THREAD LIKE ADDITION TO POSITION, EXIT SIGNALS, BREAKOUT ETC. TO AVOID MISSING OUT ON UPDATES PLEASE REMEMBER TO FOLLOW THE POST AND MY ACCOUNT. **YOU CAN TURN ON NOTIFICATION TO BE UPDATED OF CHANGES **ANY COMMENT ON THE ANALYSIS WILL BE HIGHLY APPRECIATED.
NSE:MCXLong
by VPA_TRADER
2
TRIANGULAR-BREAKOUT-UPTREND-PRICE-ACTION-VOLUME-PROFILEDisclaimer-: 1. FOR WHOM VOLUME PROFILE AND MY METHOD IS A LITTLE NEW OR BLURRY . I WILL SOON PUT UP AN EDUCATIONAL POST WITH DETAILS AND EXAMPLES. WE CAN HAVE A SERIES OF DISCUSSIONS THERE TOO. DO FOLLOW MY ACCOUNT TO GET NOTIFIED. 2. Do ask your questions in the comments if any. Volume Profile-: Using Volume Profile one can identify probable accumulation or distribution regions by comparing the historical Volume at Price and current Volume at Price. 2. If the current volume is low, its mostly a pause before the trend resumes 3. If the current volume is higher or equivalent to historical levels then either the trend will resume or it may reverse. If it resumes then we have more strength in trend due to more accumulation. So a breakout/breakdown will confirm in this case OBSERVATIONS-: 1. Triangular Breakout and then resistance at 1024 level. 2. But the recent volume is comparable to the historical volume that accumulated before the long rally happened. 3. So the current could be a consolidation->breakout=long position. ENTRY-: Confirmatory breakout above 1024 level. TARGET-: Since the expected rally could be as big as previous one since the accumulation is highest in the current region so we aim for at least 100% Fib Ext Level- 1450 STOP-LOSS 865 is the best recent support level tested multiple times. So stop-loss somewhere around that level. EXIT Since the target is above all time high. Its a provisional target level. So it doesn't make sense to exit at target rather hold on to it as much as possible and keep conservatively trailing stop-loss. Following can be used as exit signals or bearishness signals. 1. If there is bearish candlestick pattern in 1D timeframe, stop-loss can be trailed to a nearby support level .(Like Candle Low) 2. If there is RSI Divergence in 1D timeframe, better to exit at close of 1D since afterwards there can be long consolidation or reversal. 3. If the trailing stop-loss is hit, please exit **IF YOU LIKE MY ANALYSIS, KINDLY GIVE A THUMBS-UP AND SHARE IT IF POSSIBLE, HELPS A LOT :) **I WILL POST NECESSARY , SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS THREAD LIKE ADDITION TO POSITION, EXIT SIGNALS, BREAKOUT ETC. TO AVOID MISSING OUT ON UPDATES PLEASE REMEMBER TO FOLLOW THE POST AND MY ACCOUNT. **YOU CAN TURN ON NOTIFICATION TO BE UPDATED OF CHANGES **ANY COMMENT ON THE ANALYSIS WILL BE HIGHLY APPRECIATED. NSE:KAJARIACER
NSE:KAJARIACERLong
by VPA_TRADER