Gold price rebounds from 50-SMA ahead of Fed inflationGold consolidates weekly loss while posting a corrective bounce from the lowest level in 13 days as traders await the US Core PCE Price Index for June, also known as the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge. In doing so, the precious metal takes a U-turn from the 50-SMA but stays on the way to posting a second consecutive weekly loss after refreshing the all-time high during mid-July. Despite the latest rebound in prices, the commodity’s sustained trading below a month-old rising support line, now resistance near $2,428, joins the bearish MACD signals and steady RSI (14) line to keep the sellers hopeful. However, a clear downside break of the 50-SMA level of $2,359 becomes necessary to recall the bullion sellers. Following that, the 100-SMA level of $2,324 and an upward-sloping support line from early May, near the $2,300 threshold, appear as some of the last defenses of the buyers. It’s worth observing that lows marked in May and June around $2,285 and $2,277 will act as additional downside filters for the metal traders to watch during its declines past $2,300.
Meanwhile, the 21-SMA level of $2,388 and the $2,400 threshold guard the immediate upside of the Gold price ahead of the support-turned-resistance line surrounding $2,428. Following that, May’s high of $2,450 and the latest peak surrounding $2,484 could entertain the XAUUSD bulls. However, an upward-sloping trend line resistance from early April, near $2,490 as we write, quickly followed by the $2,500 round figure, appear tough nuts to crack for the bullion buyers.
To sum up, Gold is likely to remain pressured within a trading range established since April. However, the trend line breakdown can join upbeat Fed inflation to please short-term sellers.
PCE
USDJPY retreats within rising wedge on US holidayUSDJPY snaps a three-day winning streak early Monday even as markets lack momentum amid holidays in the US and the UK. In doing so, the Yen pair pares the previous weekly gains as mixed concerns about the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) next move join a cautious mood ahead of this week’s key inflation clues from Japan and the US.
It should be observed that the USDJPY pair’s latest pullback takes place from the resistance line of a three-week-old rising wedge bearish chart pattern. The retreat also gained support from the RSI (14) line’s fall from the overbought territory and the bearish MACD signals, which in turn suggests a continuation of the quote’s latest declines toward the 156.00 threshold. However, a convergence of the stated wedge’s bottom line and the 200-SMA, near the 155.25-15 region, closely followed by the 155.00 round figure, will be strong support for the bears to conquer before taking control. Should the pair remain weak past 155.00, a five-week-old rising support line near 152.6 and the monthly low of near 151.85 will be in the spotlight.
Meanwhile, the USDJPY pair’s fresh recovery needs a clear rejection of the rising wedge bearish chart pattern by crossing the 157.30 immediate hurdle. Even so, the monthly high near 158.00, the 160.00 threshold, and the recent peak of near 160.20, as well as the year 1990 top surrounding 160.40, will offer intermediate halts during the quote’s further run-up.
Overall, USDJPY is likely to witness a pullback in prices but the downside remains elusive beyond 155.00.
USDJPY eases from key resistance, focus on US, Japan inflationUSDJPY remains pressured towards 151.00 while keeping the previous day’s U-turn from a five-month-old horizontal resistance zone amid Monday’s sluggish Asian session. In doing so, the Yen pair justifies the RSI (14) line’s divergence with the latest high in prices. However, the bullish MACD signals and the quote’s successful trading above the resistance-turned-support line stretched from mid-November 2023, close to 150.30 by the press time, challenge the pair sellers. Even if the quote drops below 150.30, the 150.00 psychological magnet and January’s high of 148.80 will test the bears before directing them toward the 200-SMA support of 146.70.
On the contrary, the USDJPY pair buyers need to provide a daily closing beyond the multiple tops marked since October 2023 near the 151.90-70 region to retake control. Even so, the year 2022 peak of around 151.95 and the 152.00 threshold will challenge the Yen pair buyers before directing prices toward the tops marked in 1990 around 155.80 and 160.40. In doing so, the quote will also need to jostle with the 160.00 round figure. Apart from the multiple hurdles toward the north, the US Core PCE Price Index and Japan’s Tokyo CPI also act as the key challenges for the pair buyers to tackle to keep the reins.
Overall, the USDJPY buyers need strong catalysts to defend the latest run-up.
Euro steady ahead of US inflationThe euro is almost unchanged on Friday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.2190, down 0.02% on the day.
In Germany, Covid-19 cases have been declining in recent weeks, as the vaccine rollout has gathered steam. Some states have eased lockdown conditions and the reopening of the largest economy in the eurozone should continue in the coming months.
Despite this optimistic outlook, the German consumer remains in a dour mood. The GfK Consumer Climate index has been mired in negative territory for over a year, as consumers remain pessimistic about economic conditions. In May, the index came in at -7.0, weaker than the forecast of -5.3 points. The ongoing weakness in consumer confidence is in sharp contrast to business confidence levels, as companies remain optimistic about the German economy. German Ifo Business Climate rose to 99.2 in May, its highest level since April 2019.
In the eurozone, the data calendar is light. France's numbers were a disappointment. Consumer Spending in April plunged 8.3%, worse than the consensus of -4.1%, marking a second straight decline. As well, GDP for the first quarter came in at -0.1%, missing the forecast of +0.4%. This is a second straight decline, which means that the eurozone's second-largest economy is technically in a recession.
Will we see a return to inflation jitters? Investors are keeping a keen eye on the Core PCE Price Index, which will be released later on Friday (12:30 GMT). PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, so a strong rise could reignite speculation that the Fed could tighten policy by reducing its massive stimulus programme. The consensus is for PCE to rise to 2.9% YoY in April, up from 1.8% a month earlier. If the release is within expectations, the US dollar could respond with gains.
EUR/USD faces resistance at 1.2242. Above, there is resistance at 1.2303. On the downside, there is support at 1.2123, followed by 1.2065