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Postmortem

09 Apr- A New High, but a sharp fall afterward. VIX not spiking.Nifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Nifty hits a new ATH and then falls over 155 points, goes below water, and then closes 23 points lower @ 22642. The new ATH is 22768. The main villain again was the NiftyIT sector which had a -1.59% 566 points intraday fall. Firstly it went up 535 points in the opening 20 minutes and then gave all that away to close flat for the day. I am sure how bad the option traders are feeling because I am one of them. We now have a highly unpredictable market and swings that take out the stop losses both ways. The best trade sometimes is no trade. On the 63mts TF, we have 4 consecutive RED candles. 5 out of 6 candles are RED but the reason is that we started the day with a mega gap-up. For tomorrow also we are continuing our bullish view and would like to go neutral if we get a close below 22615. If we fall below 22513, we prefer to go short for the immediate short term.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
08 Apr 2024 - BankNifty also gets a new HIGH, what a RUNBankNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ BankNifty also takes out the recent swing high and a new ATH is in place ~ 48716 @ 13.23. Over the next 2 candles, it lost 217pts ~ 0.45%. The final close was with a nominal gain of 88pts ~ 0.18%. What a run it has been by BN, we have officially it a new higher-high, but it has not finished yet. Only when we retrace a few points, we can mark the new peak. Hope the analysis of the recent days has benefited you in the right direction. --- Algo Trading Our algo trades ended today with a gain of 29172. Most of the credits go to BankNifty which stayed in a narrow range.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
08 Apr 2024 - Nifty get a new ATH, NiftyIT in REDNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: "Today was an inside day with no real momentum and that does not mean that we are not bullish." Nifty does a gap up and then continues the climb to hit a new ATH of 22697 by 13.19. You would be surprised that the majority of those gains did not come from NiftyBank or NiftyIT, it came from Reliance, LT, M&M, and Maruti. I initially thought the momentum was fading as the other 7 top players had no steam. Only Reliance was jumping. One striking observation was the sharp fall between 13.23 & 13.27, we almost gave away 65 points in 8 minutes. Looked like a warning shot to me, but the market participants ensured stability quickly thereafter. On the 63mts TF, there is nothing for the Bears. I can quickly relate to how bad they are feeling. It has been a tough 12 to 15 months for them, every time there is a dip, the buyers jump in and push up the prices further. Short covering ensures further upmoves and an SL hit for the short-sellers ensuring the Bears are running out of funds.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
05 Apr -Algo trades went from profits to loss in last 30mts -BNBankNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ The line we drew yesterday was more or less right. Banknifty respected the trend line and moved ahead when Nifty was trading flat. RBI MPC outcome expectations were not the reason we had the fall yesterday. I can say that with a high level of certainty because today we went past yesterday’s high. And as soon as we cut through that level an additional boost of 300+ points came in via short-covering or long build-up. I guess we discussed a higher-high, higher-low formation last week. I just drew that with the green-colored path lines. Can you spot the HH, HL pattern? All this was possible only after the 47465 resistance was breached. Also, notice how the momentum picked up right after the crossing. The major highlights from the RBI MPC meeting were The Repo rates are unchanged at 6.5% The stance is the withdrawal of accommodation (M3 money supply can be tracked to see if liquidity is getting removed or not) Inflation projected at 4.5% for current FY GDP expected at 7.6% for the current FY – Algo Trading Our algo trades ended today with a loss of Rs3246, things were cruising quite well when BN picked up momentum in the last 30 to 40mts.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
05 Apr - Nifty was Flat, BankNifty picked up momentum!Nifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: “Now take a look at the 63mts chart, and see where the reversal came from ~ 22295 levels. That is the main reason why we said a stance change is required only if 22295 is broken and since we did not do that, we continue to remain bullish.” Nifty had no momentum today, but BankNifty had lots of it. Yesterday SPX & NDQ had a real down day and its spillover effects were visible during the opening minutes. We opened gap-down and then slowly recovered from that. There were no abrupt or wild movements for a change. That takes me to the next question, why did we really have a 300+ point fall yesterday? It was not because of RBI MPC, otherwise we would have passed the swing high. How many of you think it could be because of the worsening situation in the Middle East? Today was an inside day with no real momentum and that does not mean that we are not bullish. We will keep an eye on the Global macros, if the news about the War widening in scope both in Ukraine and Israel is true then it could really kill the optimism. Just before the macros worsen - GOLD prices go up. An escalation of tensions will shoot up the OIL prices as well. At present, we have both.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
04 Apr - BN - The opening RED candle, RBI MPC meet will decode..BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ The beauty of BankNifty today was that its fall did not go below yesterday’s close. Yes, the fall was intense, but the recovery was more elegant - a steady rise showing immense Bull strength. And if you read today’s report along with what we wrote yesterday, you might have become a true fan of the Bulls. A true jump above the 47465 support shows the index is really gearing up for its breakout. Just take a look at HDFC Bank’s chart, the recovery from the recent lows has been really amazing. And when the Elephant is in the mood to run, there is nothing the smaller animals can really do. We wish to start the day tomorrow on the bullish side. The RBI MPC meeting will be closely watched and I would really like to know why we had a strong opening RED hourly candle. There might be something that they know that we dont, let us find that out tomorrow. – Algo Trading Our algo trades ended today with losses of Rs9757. I had to manually override and square off the trades to limit the losses. In Hindsight, that proved like a good decision.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
04 Apr - Nifty - The first candle today came as a shocker!Nifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: “This is because if Nifty50 reverses, there is no way BankNifty can maintain the positive momentum. For tomorrow we wish to start with the bullish stance itself and go neutral if the 22295 levels are not holding.” Absolutely crazy price action today, we fell a whopping 315 points ~ 1.4% after hitting new all-time highs of 22619. The fall was too furious that it would have taken out all the stop losses of Nifty expiry traders. If that did not, then I am very sure the price action from 10.55 to 13.31 would have. That is because we retraced 276 points ~ 1.24% to go above the swing highs of yesterday. A classic V-shaped pattern, something that is rare on an index like Nifty. If you trade BankNifty, you might have gotten used to it already. Now take a look at the 63mts chart, and see where the reversal came from ~ 22295 levels. That is the main reason why we said a stance change is required only if 22295 is broken and since we did not do that, we continue to remain bullish. But deep down it got me thinking, what is the reason we had a BIG RED candle in the opening 1 hour? No way it was related to technical analysis. It should be a news or macro economic event-related, maybe we will get to know in the RBI Governor MPC address tomorrow.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
BN 03 Apr - The bulls are ready to charge, will N50 spoil it?BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ BankNifty also defended its current levels very beautifully today. The open was pretty bad as we dropped to 47278 levels by 09.27. If you observe the charts you can quickly understand that it was well below the support and that should have triggered a further fall if the Bears had an upper hand. Unfortunately, the trend is still in favor of the Bulls as the recovery was intense. A look at the 10.11 candle that cut through the 47465 resistance will give all the proof you require. BN ended up recovering 398 points from the lows and unlike Nifty we closed near the highs of the day. If you ask me, the trend is still favoring the bulls 5 out of the 6 candles today are in GREEN with the odd RED candle being a doji. It might be very unfortunate if Nifty50 has plans to reverse now as BN looks quite ready to break out. We all know how much energy will unwind when N50 and BN are aligned in the same direction. For the last 3 sessions, we have both of the indices upward looking but with no followthrough action. Let us hope tomorrow is that day wherein we expect a directional move. – Algo Trading Our algo trades ended today with a gain of Rs44262, this is the 3rd consecutive day where I had to exit the trades prematurely as the hourly profit targets were hit.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
03 Apr N50 -The Bulls have not given up yet, there is still hopeNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: “We wish to maintain the bullish stance for tomorrow as well, but we will be a bit cautious if Nifty falls below 22393 levels. A stance revision may not be even required till 22295 is broken” As we feared yesterday, we got the drop below 22393 levels but it did not even test the 22295 to mandate a stance change. The intraday low was 22346 from which we recovered 174 points ~ 0.78% to 22520 levels. From there we had a sharp correction of about 96 points ~ 0.43%. This correction would be the excess or the profit booking from those “longs” entered near the swing lows. The final closing was perfectly flat at 22434 levels. This can be considered a big achievement for the Bulls as the opening was pretty bad. I hope we are not making a double top (M pattern) on the 63mts time frame. If the pattern holds then all the efforts taken by the BankNifty index will go down the drain. This is because if Nifty50 reverses, there is no way BankNifty can maintain the positive momentum. For tomorrow we wish to start with the bullish stance itself and go neutral if the 22295 levels are not holding.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
1
BankNifty- 02 Apr - 47465 support defense crucial for UP moveBankNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ BankNifty defends the support of 47465 today also, much-needed confirmation to hold on to our bullish stance. The next leg of the rally should ideally come from the banking sector. But the biggest concern I have is that the actual torch bearer of the directional trend has shifted to NiftyIT from BankNifty. From Jan 2024, BN has been a laggard whereas NiftyIT did drive the Nifty50’s directions. The power struggle was quite obvious as Jan to March was pretty bad for most option traders. Neither the trend following nor the option selling strategies worked out. NiftyIT is currently in a reversing trend. If BankNifty starts to move up and IT moves down and if Nifty sides with IT rather than the banks then we are in for a big disappointment. Let us hope the Banks take back the control from IT, the rationale being it is the sector with the highest weightage. The trend is safer if the highest weighted sector drives the show. The first thing BN has to do is take out the ATH. We wish to start the day tomorrow with a bullish tone and then switch to a cautious mode if 47465 support is getting broken. Tomorrow being expiry, a 100+ quick points move could surge the options premium. As it stands the premiums are not suggesting any directional move. Algo Trading Our algo trades ended today with a gain of Rs31517, again I pulled the plug early to save the transaction costs and book 2/3rd of theoretical profits.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
Nifty 02 Apr- Flat day, consolidating or deciding to reverse?Nifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: “But before we go long, let us give it a day or two because the reaction today may be the after-effect of the adjustments and rebalancing that was done over the last 2 to 3 days due to year-end.” Nifty was falling gradually, almost maintaining the same slope as yesterday. The final 90 minutes saw some activity against that slope, which ensured that we were closing flat for the day. If you consider the 0.71% fall in NiftyIT, it is quite commendable that Nifty and BankNifty held their ground. Honestly, NiftyIT falling was not a good sign - we should be seriously watching that sector to see if there are any weaknesses in the pipeline. NiftyIT is the first sector to react based on global macros (anything except Crude Oil). We wish to maintain the bullish stance for tomorrow as well, but we will be a bit cautious if Nifty falls below 22393 levels. A stance revision may not be even required till 22295 is broken. In fact, Nifty might react more to domestic cues than international macros as elections are getting kicked off. We are going into the campaigns with a historically low VIX of 11.6525, I am quite sure this should start rising pretty soon.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
BankNifty 01 Apr- stance revised to bullish as 47465 brokenBankNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ BankNifty does what was pending for quite a long time i.e break above the 47465 resistance. Despite the sharp correction in the last 45 minutes of the previous working day, BN managed to recoup the losses and close much higher than the swing high. We took out the resistance in the opening candle itself after that there were 2 to 3 attempts to check if the support was strong enough. In the last 55mts we had a smooth surge which gave the impression that the support is here to stay. If we connect the dots from the lows of 12th Feb, it looks like a new higher high in the making. If it does go there, it will be a treat to watch as BankNifty has been lagging behind Nifty for quite a long time now. We wish to change our stance from neutral to bullish as long as 47465 support is held. – Algo Trading Our algo trades ended today with a gain of 41546 as I prematurely closed the trades at 11.22 today.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
01 Apr 2024 - Both indices are aligned in the same direction -UPNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: “In the end, made peace with whatever happened during the day. When we start trading on 1st April, we will start with a bullish stance.” Nifty surprises everybody and recovers the loss of the final 45mts of trade on 28th March. What a good start to the new weekly, monthly, and yearly series. Unlike the previous quarters, I may not compile the daily posts into an ebook to post on Kindle, instead, it will be available on tradingview and my blog for reference & study. Nifty hit a new ATH today - 22529 and after that, the momentum faded slightly, but the downside was protected pretty well. 22443 acted as a good interim support. For all the non-directional option sellers, the first day of the new FY would have given a good green start to their PnL. On the higher timeframe, Nifty looks solidly poised for more bullish momentum. BankNifty went above its resistance today and for the first time in many sessions, we have both the indices facing the same direction i.e. UP. Ideally, we should see some followthrough buying and the index should continue to hit new highs. But before we go long, let us give it a day or two because the reaction today may be the after-effect of the adjustments and rebalancing that was done over the last 2 to 3 days due to year-end.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
28 Mar ’24 — BankNifty has to break 47465 to go bullishBankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ BankNifty made its run today, but nothing as dramatic as Nifty50. We went up 590pts ~ 1.26% and then gave up 443pts ~ 0.93% in the last 45mts. The stance on BN is still neutral. If we had broken the 47465 resistance today and closed above, we would have changed the status to bullish. At one point, breaking 47465 was looking almost certain. 4mts chart If you look at the higher time frame, you would quickly agree with my view. BN has a bullish edge but is still neutral. For a strong bullish move, the resistance has to be broken, and if we do that we might create a new higher high from the bottom made on 24th Jan. When we resume trading on 1st April, we wish to start with a neutral bias, and go long if we breach 47465. 63mts chart - Algo Trading Expecting choppiness today, did not run the Algo trades today. In hindsight, that proved to be the right decision. Otherwise, the entire month’s gain would have been wiped out.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
28 Mar ’24 — Nifty up 5415pts 32% this FY Investors beat tradersNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: “We are still hanging on to the inverse head and shoulders pattern and strongly hope we should have some movement to the 22295 levels by tomorrow.” 4mts chart Unbelievable intraday price action by Nifty50 today. A rise of 369 points ~ 1.67% and then a sharp fall of 250 points ~ 1.11%. This highly volatile price movement is largely attributed to the year-end rebalancing by the mutual funds both DIIs and FIIs. What a fantastic financial year it has been for the investors. Nifty is up 32% ie 5415 points in the current financial year. If you look back and assess objectively, it is way above the average returns made by intraday traders. I can vouch for that as my personal returns are not more than 14 to 16% in this period. Just imagine that, a normal investor who either did the SIP or lumpsum beat an active intraday trader. The former would have gone for a regular job or business and got an additional income whereas the latter would have spent every day (blood, sweat, and tears) in front of the trading terminal and end up underperforming. These numbers are more than enough to drive away the traders - why take the pain if investing is giving above-average returns? One thing is 100% sure, things will not remain like this forever. Benchmarks cannot give 30%+ returns every year if you are counting on that - it is a recipe for disaster. Nifty almost took out the All-time highs today and ended up falling 10pts short. The inverse head and shoulders pattern played out and gave good results. My personal trades today were a total disaster. I was short 22400 CE, rolled up to 22450 CE, and then rolled over to the next weekly as the market was aggressively moving against me. Had to book back-to-back losses. After exiting the 22400 CE by stop loss, it went up another 2244% - totally crazy. And just check what happened in the last 45 minutes - we gave away 250 points. Meanwhile, I decided not to run the Algo’s today and stick with manual trades. If I had gone with the Algos, my entire March month earnings would have been washed out. In the end, made peace with whatever happened during the day. When we start trading on 1st April, we will start with a bullish stance. 1D chart
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
27 Mar ’24 — BankNifty ends flat, but no directional intent yetBankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ BankNifty also started the day with a gap up and then an immediate rise to the 46920 levels. This did not sustain as we gradually fell back to 46690 levels between 10.35 and 15.07. Surprisingly we had a 284pts rally in 15 minutes right back to the 46920 zone. The final close at 46785 looked pretty decent with the major gains coming from HDFCBK, AXIS, and KOTAK. For a brief period, it was interesting to see ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank going the opposite way thanks to the year-end rebalancing. 4mts chart On the higher time frame, BN looks flat, I am totally unable to make out the next direction with the current chart pattern. What was really lacking for the last 3 months was consensus in choosing the direction, among Nifty50, BankNifty and NiftyIT. NiftyIT is so beaten that a quick recovery is ruled out. Only if BN aligns with Nifty50 we can have a breakout. 63mts chart – Algo Trading Due to a production key error, I was not able to set up the execution on AlgoTest today - hence no trades.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
27 Mar ’24 — Nifty takes out 22051 resistance, 22295 next?Nifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: “We drew an inverse Head & Shoulders pattern on the 22nd. If that holds true, we should be getting some assistance tomorrow or the 28th” 4mts chart Nifty did more than okay today, we opened above the resistance level of 22051 and then steadily climbed to 22181 before cooling off. We then had another attempt from 13.11 to 14.15 where we went till 22193 before falling off the cliff. We fell exactly 100 points to 22100 levels and then managed to recover a bit to close at 22147. Ideally, we cannot make out anything significant today as most of the trades would have been year-end rebalancing - both by the DIIs as well as the FIIs. The inflow & outflow and weight adjustments will be there tomorrow as well as it is the last working day of this financial year. We are still hanging on to the inverse head and shoulders pattern and strongly hope we should have some movement to the 22295 levels by tomorrow. NiftyIT is showing too much weakness and if BankNifty also sides to the downside then there is a high possibility that we may not break out. How long can RELIANCE keep supporting this market? We wish to maintain our neutral stance for tomorrow and go long if we are nearing 22295 in the morning session itself. 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
26 Mar ’24 — BankNifty appears more bearish than neutralBankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ BankNifty started the day weak and continued to stay weak. The rebound from the opening low was not as dramatic as N50, we broke the low at 10.03 indicating further weakness. Technically BN only closed 0.56% lower vs Nifty which closed -0.42%, but the visual impact shows more negativity on BN than N50. Firstly because the recovery was almost not there and secondly because we kept on losing the lows. 4mts chart The chart pattern on BN is not bullish anyway. Even though the numbers look flat & neutral, the chart is screaming bearish. But you know we cannot go bearish until the support is broken or a new lower low is formed - so we might have to be contended with what we have. NiftyIT has made a decent reversal from the interim top, if BN also keeps falling then no way can N50 stay at these levels. Sector rotations do work for a limited period but if we have the financials and IT putting its weight on one side, all the other sectors combined cannot pull N50 back. 63mts chart – Algo Trading Our algo trades ended today with a gain of 27404. Exited the trades @ 10.54 and did not want to test my luck after that.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
26 Mar ’24 — Scary opening minutes and broken support at closeNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: “The support of 22051 will be crucial and N50 has to defend it if we wish to go bullish.” 4mts chart No one would really believe it if we said Nifty50 had an opening low of 21947 i.e. 133 points below the last session close. Well, it was just a blip and we quickly regained the 222051 support/resistance level. From 09.19 to 14.31 Nifty was hovering around this zone with no particular intent to go up or down. In the last hour, Nifty made a quick fall of 50+ points went to 22000, and then closed there. The good thing is that we did not retest the opening lows again and the bad thing is that the momentum we had on the last working day is almost gone. We drew an inverse Head & Shoulders pattern on the 22nd. If that holds true, we should be getting some assistance tomorrow or the 28th If N50 is unable to rally despite the IH&S pattern we will quickly change our priority to a small triple top that is forming and go bearish if 21913 support also fails. Tomorrow we wish to maintain our neutral stance. 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
22 Mar ’24 — BankNifty holds ground, when NiftyIT was crashingBankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ BankNifty stays in the neutral zone for yet another day. Even when N50 made its 1.36%, BN went up only by 0.9%. NiftyIT was tanking on one side, but BN was holding its ground from falling. I am seriously confused about whether Nifty or BankNifty has the lower beta. Even the profit booking in the last 40mts did not have a wild impact on BN but it might have taken the profits out of N50 straddlers. 4mts chart We are almost midway between the nearest support & resistance. The slope of the 200 EMA will prove the point that we are neutral, just check its slope - it's almost parallel to the X-axis. This was the major reason why I never went bearish even though we fell 2000+ points from the ATH. We continue to maintain our neutral stance for Tuesday and would like to build fresh positions based on the price action. 63mts chart — Algo Trading Our algo trades ended today with a loss of 7029 rupees, thanks to the swing from Nifty50. So for my current month, the Nifty Algos are in loss whereas BN is in good profits. This takes me back to the earlier question, which one has the lower beta?
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
22 Mar ’24 — Nifty makes a Run, but crucial profit booking @ endNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: “Momentum is still something Nifty50 was not able to find so far, mainly because follow-up buying or selling was just not there.” 4mts chart Nifty has become really unpredictable and is taking all the professional traders on a wild ride. We opened Gap-down, and the 3rd candle went through the support of 21913. Just when we thought we might have a down day, Nifty makes a reversal. Magically the support of 21913 is held and Nifty moves up an impressive 297 points ~ 1.36%. On its way, it spent some time @ 22051 resistance too, but the breakthrough was proof that the animal was a Bull and not a Bear. In the closing 40 minutes, we had a round of profit booking that ensured we fell around 117 points. Nifty creates an inverse head and shoulders on the 63mts chart. IH&S is a bullish pattern. But we are not changing our stance that fast. We will wait for follow-through buying on Tuesday and then go long. The support of 22051 will be crucial and N50 has to defend it if we wish to go bullish. Meanwhile, it is a long weekend for us and that could also mean that global macros could change in between as well. 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
21 Mar ’24 — BankNifty was never bearish, today is proof.BankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ BankNifty gaps up 422pts ~ 0.91% but doesn't go anywhere. We are neither bullish nor bullish again. One thing was quite clear today, the downside was quite absent today. In fact, our lows of 46651 were protected pretty well. The gaps were because of the outperformance by SPX, NDQ yesterday. Yesterday, the US FED decided to keep the rates flat and also indicated there could be up to 3 interest rate cuts this year. Even though it could be an election gimmick, the markets reacted positively and this spillover effect ensured we are also outperforming. But what it really did was abort the bearish flow. BankNifty was never bearish, but Nifty was and that flow got interrupted. 4mts chart On the higher time frame, the bearish setup did not really start but the patterns look promising. What we need to see if we are getting followthrough on the bullish side tomorrow or not. Next week the trading is cut short by 2 days due to Holi & Good Friday, so I am guessing the decision might be taken tomorrow itself. We would prefer to start the day tomorrow with the neutral stance and then take it from there. 63mts chart - Algo Trading Our algo trades ended today with a gain of Rs19360 mostly because BN maintained a small range today.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
21 Mar ’24 — Nifty goes from bearish to neutral, thanks to SPX Nifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: “Momentum is a great thing in technical analysis, the trend starts only when the momentum is in favor because if things stay as it is — markets will recover.” 4mts chart Whatever trap was set up by the Bears, it was busted open today with the gap-up. We opened 167 points ~ 0.76% ensuring we are opening right above the resistance 21913. And that also meant we had to change the stance from bearish to neutral. We discussed how the weak hands and the short covering they create spoil the entire trap. See what happened with the 22051 resistance too, there were 2 strong green candles - 10.03 and 10.07 that would have given the feeling that we are breaking this zone also. If the bear market is still in play, we will reverse sharply tomorrow. On the higher time frame, we created an island day, thanks to the gap-up. Momentum is still something Nifty50 was not able to find so far, mainly because follow-up buying or selling was just not there. Even in the small bearish phase we had, BankNifty’s lack of participation meant our run would be cut short. To resume the downtrend we have to break the swing low i.e. fall below 21690 and we hope if that happens the momentum will kick start. To go long we need to go above 22295 as soon as possible. 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram