Get started

Postmortem

29 Feb ’24 BankNifty still looks bearish until the resistance...BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish ⬇️ BankNifty ended the day in GREEN, up 157pts, but we are still bearish as the resistance line was not taken out (bearish trend line). Also, we are in the bearish channel, the longer we stay in it - the stronger the BEARS grows. 3 candles between 09.59 to 10.07 gave away 498pts ~ 1.08%. And we really thought, it could be the beginning of a longer bear attack. Well, our short call for today did not work out as planned - we were able to cover up some losses as the expiry trades gave outsized premiums due to a spike in IV. The last 30 minutes added 394pts ~ 0.86pts. 4mts chart A part of the spike in volume could be attributed to the monthly rebalancing. That also means a portion of the price action could be manipulated as well. We will get to know in detail during the opening hours tomorrow. We wish to maintain the bearish stance as long as the sloping blue resistance is not taken out. To go bullish, BN has to rally all the way up above the double-top pattern. 63mts chart Algo Trading Due to the monthly expiry, I did not have spare funds to deploy for Algo trades, instead, I put them on the forward test mode. It showed a profit of 19858 I am a registered financial advisor & would be happy to be of assistance to you. DM me for more details.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
29 Feb ’24 Nifty reclaims the lost Support, back with a message!Nifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: “If Nifty50 had broken the 21913 today, we would have changed the stance from bullish to bearish right away. Hence we are going with a neutral stance tomorrow and would immediately go bearish if we have a gap down opening or sustained trades below the 21913 after the opening hour” 4mts chart One of the good points about drawing the support and resistance lines is that we can guess with a higher accuracy when the markets will pause/reverse or cut through. See what happened today - flat opening, a small bump upside, and then a ferocious downward action. Looking at those 2 RED candles, I really thought the 21913 support would give away. The candles at 11.07 and 11.11 almost gave away the clue that support would not get rejected again. The most surprising aspect of today’s price action was the action in the last 30 minutes. Nifty rallied right from the 21913 support to the 22051 resistance and then ran out of time. The recovery today almost confirms that the BEARS are going empty-handed. On the higher timeframe, the last candle of the day stands out, ample GREENery for the Bulls to feast. We are not removing the double top (M pattern) for now, because to negate that Nifty50 has to take out the ATH. If the momentum stalls in either direction - the prevailing beast wins, so both the Bulls and Bears have to be careful. We wish to go with the neutral stance tomorrow and then take a call based on the opening 63 minutes of action. 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
28 Feb ’24 — BankNifty goes bearish, next stop 45399BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish ⬇️ There is no doubt that the stance on Banknifty is anything but bearish. Even though we started quite okay, we quickly gave up the gains. After 10.23 the intensity of selling was quite strong. And once we came back to the bearish channel the depth of the RED candles kept on increasing. Banks were the first to react to the bad news along with RELIANCE. NiftyIT was still going on strong and was at the GREEN end of the turf. In fact, NiftyIT went into RED only after 11.43. 4mts chart The double top M pattern and the bearish channel are better explainable on the higher timeframe. BankNifty’s next support comes at 45399, the momentum for the Bears will really pick up if we are to break that by tomorrow. That would also mean we are going back to the levels as of 18th Jan 2024. We are also quite sure, that could be a pain area for many traders who would have taken a monthly position. HDFC Bank was very special today, it hit a low of 1405 by 10.59 - but the recovery after that was more than amazing. Till 14.27, things were not looking that bad either. However, the final 1 hour ensured that the selling on this counter was far from over. HDFCBK has a higher weight on Nifty50 than RELIANCE. Also it commands 2 other indices - BankNifty and FinNifty also. So if this elephant starts rolling, it would be a treat to watch for the BEARS. 63mts chart Algo Trading Our algo trades ended today with a gain of 15606. This is the 3rd day that we have exited the Algos prematurely. Today, we closed the trades @ 10.07 as my gut feeling said something was fishy.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
28 Feb ’24 — Nifty takes out 22051 support, quite unexpected ➡️Nifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: “They need to take out the 22051 and 21913 support levels, which is only possible if we have a macro level bad news. Banks are the only sector that could give away such an opportunity. Already the FIIs are not so happy with the future prospects of the financial sector in India. A small trigger could set the ball rolling and before long it could become an avalanche.” 4mts chart Nifty did fall today and the trigger was a news/event. AMFI issued a circular to all the Trustees to “protect the interest of investors of small-cap and mid-cap schemes”. And then gave a 21 day window to disclose this instruction on the respective websites. Ideally, this shouldn't impact the large-cap companies, but since it did - we may have to reassess the total risk to SIP inflows and outflows. Coming back to technicals, Nifty50 fell 314 points today ~ 1.42%. The first pause Nifty50 had today was at the 22051 support level, from 10.59 to 14.15 this level was at play. Even though we got the 2nd leg of fall from 12.51 to 13.11 - the pullback ensured we retraced up to the 22051 erstwhile resistance. And guess what, Nifty had its next halt right at the 21913 support level. Literally saved by the bell. On the higher timeframe, today’s move negates the flag pattern and instead, we have a double top (M pattern). Since this M pattern’s both legs are sitting at 21913 - the priority should be higher than the bullish flag set earlier. If Nifty50 had broken the 21913 today, we would have changed the stance from bullish to bearish right away. Hence we are going with a neutral stance tomorrow and would immediately go bearish if we have a gap down opening or sustained trades below the 21913 after the opening hour. Since we have the monthly expiry tomorrow - there is no better day to go bearish. The options premium will go up and it should be an option sellers day tomorrow. 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
27 Feb ’24 — Banks are still neutral, but in the Bearish ChannelBankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ BankNifty is still managing to stay below the bearish trend top line and that means we are in the bearish channel as of now. You might wonder if we are in the bearish channel - why is our stance still neutral? The answer is that, even though we have entered the bearish channel, BN has not shown any signs of breakdown. We are still knocking the resistance level and trying to keep up with Nift50’s direction. 4mts chart Over the last 2 months, most of my directional bets have gone awkwardly wrong. On investigation, I came to know that it is because of NiftyIT. The level of uncertainty and the swing range of IT stocks are really taking a toll on the stability of Nifty50. Either we need to have FnO enabled on NiftyIT so that we can hedge and tide over the problems it is causing or the Banks have to take charge and cast them out. 63mts chart On the higher timeframe, BN is still following the double-top pattern with the trades being conducted in the bearish channel. To go bullish, BN has to reclaim the 47465 resistance whereas to go bearish all it has to do is just fall another 650 to 700 points. We wish to look out of neutral trades till the directional clues emerge. Algo Trading Our algo trades ended today with a gain of 17460. We closed the trades prematurely as 85% of the day’s target was hit within 11.29 and did not want to risk the lead.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
27 Feb ’24 — Nifty fights it out and resolves on the upsideNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: “Ideally, we should expect the leg2 to start soon, but the premiums are not indicative. Also, we have the monthly expiry this week and things could get a bit volatile before we find a clear trend.” 4mts chart Nifty50 would have given enough choppiness for those bullish today to test your courage. But N50 ended up defending yesterday’s low and resolved on the upside. We started the day gap-down, but we did not have enough momentum to break the swing low. And by the 3rd candle, we went into the green territory. From there we had one more attempt to go underwater i.e. from 11.39 to 12.11 - but this attempt was quickly bought into. Interestingly, N50 took this as the reversal point and then started climbing steadily. On the 4 minutes chart, it formed a nice 2-legged upmove. On the higher time frame, the ATH is the only thing that stands in the way of the Bulls. Whereas, Bears have 2 to 3 tasks to do to get the scale tipped in their favor. They need to take out the 22051 and 21913 support levels, which is only possible if we have a macro level bad news. Banks are the only sector that could give away such an opportunity. Already the FIIs are not so happy with the future prospects of the financial sector in India. A small trigger could set the ball rolling and before long it could become an avalanche. What we can do is wait for more clarity to appear and then play along. As of now, we wish to play bullish on Nifty and neutral on BankNifty. 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
26 Feb ’24 — Banks showing some weakness, below the bearish lineBankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ BankNifty on the other hand was looking weaker. Technically BN only lost 0.5% vs Nifty 0.41% - but the price action & visual impact showed the Banks ceding their bullish control. If you look at the sloping bearish trend line, we opened below that went up for a brief time and then fell back below water. We rejected the resistance twice today showing some signs of the steam cooling off. 4mts chart On the higher timeframe, we have not yet broken away from the bearish resistance line. But the double top formation also leaves a visual clue. If the bulls had more control of the situation, they should have knocked out the 47465 resistance by now. It all depends on how BN will trade tomorrow and Wednesday. This time around, the torch bearer for Nifty50’s directional trend was all NiftyIT. BankNifty was the laggard and with 37% of weightage, it is quite impossible to rule out the strength of the banks. The first thing we would like to do tomorrow is to find some non-directional trades if BN stays in the bearish channel. To go bullish, BN will have to take out the peak of the double top formation i.e. 47250+ levels. 63mts chart Algo Trading Our algo trades ended today with a gain of Rs19367 today, we manually squared off the trades by 14.45 to protect the profits.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
26 Feb ’24 — Except Energy, all the other sectors down in N50?Nifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: “We are not suggesting that all “roads lead to Rome theory” i.e. everything is bullish, but the probability of things going up seems higher than cutting through the supports of 22051 & 21913. You know us, the moment the supports are broken, we will exit the bullish position at a loss and go neutral.” 4mts chart Almost all the sectors looked weak today, NiftyIT was the main villain - at a point, it was like 1.7% down. The energy sector ended the day with some meaningful gains, excluding that then everything was either in RED or flat. Interestingly, Nifty did not touch or break the 22051 support level today and due to that we do not think a status change is required. The near ATM CALLs side had exorbitant premiums last week, most analysts would have even extrapolated to have a 22500+ close this expiry. Today’s price action ensured normalcy returned to these CALL premiums. Meanwhile, the PUT premiums are not elevated as well, so we do not expect a major breakout or breakdown soon. On the higher timeframe, the flag pattern seems to have played out as per script. Ideally, we should expect the leg2 to start soon, but the premiums are not indicative. Also, we have the monthly expiry this week and things could get a bit volatile before we find a clear trend. We wish to stay bullish and as soon as the 22051 support gets broken - we wish to change our stance to neutral. If 21913 is getting broken in 1 to 2 days - we would even go bearish as the flag pattern will be totally negated. 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
23 Feb ’24 — BankNifty rejects the bearish trend line.BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ BankNifty fell 108pts today and still, it looks bullish for us. The reason is, the bearish trend line was rejected and as long as we stay on top - we are immune to bear attack. A few candles were quite abnormal today, with the price action from 10.19 to 10.38 and then the 13.19 candle that single-handedly took out 193 points. Even after all that, the bears were not able to get a close below the support line. 4mts chart On the higher time frame, BN has made a double top at 47200 levels. We will be considering that with a pinch of salt as we do not know what technical pattern gets a higher priority - the double top or the support rejection. We might have to go with the trend here and assume the direction is upward. We will only get to know this when BN attempts the next resistance of 47465. A resistance rejection would tip the scale in the Bear’s favor. 63mts chart
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
23 Feb ’24 — Indices take a pause - yet again. Only to jump up?Nifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: “As soon as the 22051 resistance gave away, we had to change our stance from neutral to bullish. We would now like to see how higher the markets can go, we are assuming the momentum may not take us to 22700 for the monthly expiry.” 4mts chart All 3 indices - Nifty50, BankNifty, and NiftyIT- were stuck in a tight range today, something that we usually see after a fast & furious move. The experts usually call it a flag pattern where a slight downward day occurs after a steaming UP day. Technically a pause also made sense - markets may be recalibrating between the short covering yesterday and a possible long build-up for next week. As long as the global macros remain positive, Nifty should remain charged up and ready to roll. The indices staying flat would have ensured the straddlers would have made some money today, BN was quite shaky though - most likely it would have ended up hitting both stop losses. Nifty was far more stable today. The flag pattern is quite prominent on the higher timeframe. We are not suggesting that all “roads lead to Rome theory” i.e. everything is bullish, but the probability of things going up seems higher than cutting through the supports of 22051 & 21913. You know us, the moment the supports are broken, we will exit the bullish position at a loss and go neutral. Till then we are going to keep looking upwards. 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
22 Feb ’24 — BankNifty is bullish even though we had a RED DayBankNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ BankNifty did not have as much of a wild swing as Nifty50 had today, interestingly the SR trendline (blue sloping line in the below chart) was in action. We fell below this support at 09.59 and stood there till 14.59. Only in the last 30mts we managed to go above this level. If you notice in detail it is when BN crossed this resistance that N50 surged past its 22051 SR. Let us not steal the credit as it was all NiftyIT that helped N50 do its magic. BankNifty even though ended with a loss of 0.21% - we are still bullish on it. 4mts chart In fact, we had one 63mts candle below the blue trend line today and ideally, we should have changed the status from bullish to neutral. Had BN stayed lower and not reclaimed its lost ground, we would have 100% gone with a neutral stance for tomorrow. As it stands the next resistance is at 47465 and it is a tough level. If the euphoria from the US markets is spilling to ours tomorrow (SPX +1.96%, NDQ +2.87% as of writing) - then we might even have an outlier GREEN session tomorrow. 63mts chart
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
22 Feb ’24 —Back to winning ways, grass is greener at the Bull’sNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: “Since Nifty50 fell below our support line, we had to reverse the stance back to neutral. In case Nifty50 climbs back up tomorrow and hits a new ATH, today’s move will just appear as a blip, and the stance will go back to bullish.” 4mts chart Honestly speaking, we fell into the bear trap today as the forenoon session was immensely negative. Look at the first 2 encircled regions. The first circle between open and 09.51 wherein we gave away to the 22051 support. The next 4 candles were also RED and we did not stop till the main support of 21913 was hit. We got our bias wrong as we gave weightage to the price action between 22051 & 21913, we thought the selling may not stop there. The 2nd encircled area was at the 21913 region i.e. from 10.03 to 11.35. When we saw the markets were not cracking further, we adjusted our “short CALL” positions, and as markets started recovering, we trailed the “short PUT” positions to offset the gain in the short CEs. Again our view went absolutely wrong when the markets did not stop at 22051, even though we had a pause between 13.47 and 14.27. What then followed was the dream of an option buyer and a nightmare for option sellers like me. The momentum was so strong that we took out the ATH. Nifty had an intraday swing of 378 points ~ 1.73%. The swing was so wild that it would have taken out any stop loss set on premiums, over the last few days - markets are really testing the nerves of option traders. Between the last expiry and today, N50 has gained 291pts ~ 1.33%. The moves of the last 4 days were recreated in just today’s session - must be a new record. As soon as the 22051 resistance gave away, we had to change our stance from neutral to bullish. We would now like to see how higher the markets can go, we are assuming the momentum may not take us to 22700 for the monthly expiry. 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
21 Feb ’24 — BankNifty is bullish as long as its > 46886 ⬆️⬆️⬆️BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Although BankNifty created a double top (M pattern) on the 4 mts time frame today, the stance is still bullish. The reason we did not change the stance for BN even though we downgraded N50 was that BN did not even test the support level today. Despite the selling pressure on all other counters, the Banks did not attempt to re-enter the bearish channel nor break the trendline. Ideally, it had to fall below 46833 to go into a bearish zone and today’s low was 46886. We know a 50pts margin is not that adequate, but when we switch to a higher time frame chart - you may agree with us. 4mts chart If you look at the chart below, even after adjacent RED candles, BN is still above the blue trend line. Tomorrow’s opening 63 minutes is very crucial as the major reason why BN did not participate in the fall today could be attributed to expiry day trades. When the selling came, the volumes of the top 4 banks had spiked accidentally revealing that it could be the start of something big. We guess the torch-bearer status of BankNifty has to be kept on the back burner as NiftyIT is calling the shots now. February is proving to be equally volatile as January 2024. Both the indices are now hunting for the stop losses and it seems like the ATM non-directional traders are going through another drawdown phase. For tomorrow we wish to start the day with a bullish bias and not get into any aggressive bets. Will wait for the first 63mts candle to appear and then take things from there. If we stay below the blue trend line - the status would be changed to neutral immediately. 63mts chart — Algo Trading Our algo trades ended today with gains of 11395. We booked the profits early i.e. by 11.34. Would have to backtest and find out tomorrow if our decision to prematurely exit was worth it or not. Yesterday also we exited prematurely and the backtests proved we made the right choice.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
21 Feb ’24 — First Real Threat for Bulls Today - Nifty50Nifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: “On the 63mts TF, N50 is still looking strong — we would keep our first support level(weak) at 22051 and the main support at 21913.” 4mts chart Bulls were roaring and seemed like the entire territory was under their control and then suddenly from nowhere, we got a flash crash. Nifty50 hits a new ATH of 22249 and then falls 252 points ~ 1.13%. Yesterday we talked about the shallow support at 22051, it was interesting to see the 14.39 RED candle just did not respect that level and fell aggressively. After hitting a low of 21997 we had a pullback of 101 points, but that got sold into. The closing was strongly in favor of the Bears. Technically Nify50 has just fallen 141 points ~ 0.64% and even after that, it is still bullish on the higher timeframes. We need to really find out what was the reason we had a flash crash today - it did not feel like a profit-booking stunt. It appeared more like a news/event released to a selected few participants. Since Nifty50 fell below our support line, we had to reverse the stance back to neutral. In case Nifty50 climbs back up tomorrow and hits a new ATH, today’s move will just appear as a blip, and the stance will go back to bullish. On the higher timeframe, Nifty is below the 22051 resistance and above the strong support of 21913. If the Bears are planning for another attack tomorrow just like the one we had today - then we strongly feel that the 21913 level should be tested and even broken. Ideally, the opening 1st & 2nd candles will give away the directional trend. Interestingly, BankNifty did not participate in the downward trend today, most likely it may be attributed to the expiry and the aggressive positions taken by the smart money. Anyway, we will get to know by tomorrow if the Bears are back or not. 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
20 Feb ’24 — Stance revised to bullish for BankNifty ⬆️⬆️⬆️BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Yesterday we discussed the possibility of HDFC Bank making a move and quite fortunately that came true today. We rallied an impressive 769pts ~ 1.66% today to take out the first resistance (bearish trendline break). Would you believe the elephant jumped 2.63% today along with AXIS Bank 2.41%, Kotak Bank 1.8%. ICICI Bank & SBI was not that stimulated today, even then we managed to rally hard today. Notice the blue-encircled regions where we spent time today trying to break out. The momentum from 14.03 to close was the main and the only reason we had that break through today, otherwise we would have spent the time following the resistance slope. 4mts chart On the higher timeframe, the break above the bearish channel is loud and clear. But we are below the 47465 resistance line (orange color). Since we have an expiry tomorrow and because BN attained the bullish stance today, we expect those levels to be tested and broken by tomorrow itself. Being in trading, we cannot always remain optimistic and expect things to happen our way - that's why we engineer stop losses and fix reversal levels. In case something like that happens tomorrow, we will see if the bears are keeping BN below the blue channel line - if yes, we will reverse our stance back to neutral and wait for the next trigger. 63mts chart Algo Trading Our algo trades ended today with a gain of Rs6904. We stopped the algo at 14.24 as a breakout was looking imminent. We will have to backtest it tomorrow to see if it was the right decision.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
20 Feb ’24 — Another milestone, 22000 conquered - Nifty50 flyingNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: “On the 63 mts time frame, Nifty looks strong and pumped up. We continue to hold on to our bullish stance, if BN or IT index joins N50 — the build-up in momentum will be a treat to watch.” 4mts chart Exciting times as Nifty50 has conquered a new milestone “22000” and BankNifty just turned bullish today. At present, both N50 and BN are facing northwards and that usually is a sign of further momentum build-up. Having said that, SPX and NDQ are trading negatively in the US with losses of 0.84 & 1.39% respectively. FII sell value for today is 1335 crores and the other European markets are trading mostly in RED or flat. So we are in a unique position where Indian markets are looking optimistic and roaring to go whereas global markets are a bit subdued. Unusually high inflows of SIP via domestic mutual fund AMCs are the primary reason we are staying afloat. Even after so much money making its way to the financial markets, we are in no way close to the bank's fixed deposit volume & volume growth. One thing we are not sure about is whether this money inflow is due to the blind trust in the current Govt’s fiscal policies, reforms, and the certainty to return to power. Or is this a structural change and India is truly becoming a financial powerhouse? If you look at the price action today by N50, we had a RED opening candle which was bought into by 10.15 and then we had one more round of selling between 13.31 to 13.59. But what stood out was the surge of 78 points in the last 30 minutes. It took out yesterday’s swing high and created the new ATH record. On the 63mts TF, N50 is still looking strong - we would keep our first support level(weak) at 22051 and the main support at 21913. With 2 days to go, will N50 take out the 22500 levels? Reply with your comments below. 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
4
19 Feb ’24 — BankNifty is still not bullish, 47016 has to break.BankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Even though the 4mts chart looks bullish as the moving averages have a positive slope, the reality is quite different. BankNifty has not managed to find the fire to go “BOOM BOOM”, it is totally lazy and lethargic at its current levels. Today we ended up gaining 150 points ~ 0.32% but a few of the major banks like HDFC Bank, Kotak, and AXIS were not that excited. ICICI on the other hand was totally on another orbit today. If you look at the chart below you can see the fear of heights (blue markers). The best way to get through is with a mega gap-up, which will force the weak hands to run for cover. 4mts chart Make no mistake, BN has rallied 2094 points ~ 4.69% from the recent swing low. But visually that rally is not bullish yet, that is because the time factor is at play. BN is very near the top of the bearish channel. A break above 47016 and then 47465 will give it sufficient momentum to surge through. The biggest factor that is holding up is HDFC Bank which has fallen after its results. We guess the bulls are waiting for HDFCBK to regain its footing so that the index itself can break free. The only way Nifty can get past 22500 is with the help of BankNifty. We do not remember the last time where Nifty50 kept making new highs without the support of BN. 63mts chart Algo Trading Our BankNifty algo trades ended today with a gain of Rs3793.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
19 Feb ’24 — A New All-Time Highs - 22186 Nifty50 ⬆️⬆️⬆️Nifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: “From 15th Dec 2023 to 15th Feb 2024 — Nifty was in a narrow range of 21491 to 21913 with a couple of false breakouts/breakdowns. So we are keeping our fingers crossed this time to validate whether it works out. One way to do that is to check for follow-through price action. Blips do not last that long and we usually fall below the resistance (just like what happened on the last 2 occasions).” 4mts chart The price action today was totally predictable. The break above the resistance of 21913 had an impact on Indian stock markets. Even though SPX & NDQ ended their last session with a loss of 0.48 & 0.9% respectively, it did not stop us from hitting a new all-time high of 22186 today. We even started gap-up followed by sensible price action to close the gap, get the footing, and then rally to new highs. Once we hit the HOD, there was a minor profit booking and we ended the day only with a gain of 81 points. BankNifty did not show its strength today, ICICI Bank looked in top-class form but none of the other major banks supported it. BankNifty as an index is still not bullish, on top of that NiftyIT was in the RED today. That is something that we don't witness every day, N50 hitting new highs without the support from BankNifty and NiftyIT. On the 63 mts time frame, Nifty looks strong and pumped up. We continue to hold on to our bullish stance, if BN or IT index joins N50 - the build-up in momentum will be a treat to watch. Having said that we are not quite sure if we have enough firepower to take out 22500 in this weekly series. 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
16 Feb ’24 — BankNifty will have to support N50 next week for ⬆️BankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ The move BankNifty made did not correlate with Nifty50 today. BN’s gap-up was sold into and then we recovered once the gap was closed. Yes, there was no selling pressure which was common to both. The straddles on BN were progressing better than expected when we had a quick surge and an equivalent fall between 13.31 and 14.11. We assume it may be connected with a news/event that broke about Paytm & selection of any of the banks for its payment settlements. 4mts chart On the higher timeframe, you can notice how BN is making progress to its next resistance level of 47465. Since it is inside a descending (but not parallel) channel, it need not even break the resistance for a stance revision to bullish. All it has to do is take out the 47016 levels soon and break the upper end of the channel. Since Nifty50 has made its intention clear to go long, BankNifty willingly or not would have to support that cause. We wish to maintain a neutral stance till then and go bullish as and when the conditions specified are fulfilled. 63mts chart Algo Trading Our BankNifty algo trades ended today with a gain of 3835 points.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
16 Feb ’24 — Nifty stance upgraded to Bullish, BN NeutralNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: “A gap-up is ideal as it will quickly tip the balance to the Bulls as short sellers will have to run for cover. We wish to change the status from neutral to bullish only if we get a 63mts candle above the 21913 resistance line.” 4mts chart We all knew it would be a gap-up today and see how the bears ran for cover when we opened 93 points ~ 0.43% above yesterday’s close. The spike in CALL premiums was enough to show the fear of short covering. Secondly, there was no attempt to close the gap - which would have left the Bears with no choice but to abandon their short position or roll over to the next week and find a similarly priced strike. Fortunately, most would not have made a heavy loss as the “real breakout” did not happen today. Nifty was just contented to hold the ground and not concede the territory. After the first 63-minute candle we revised our stance to bullish, if you have read our last few reports - you would understand the rationale too. See the island formed above the resistance level of 21913. It is a classic breakout formation. From 15th Dec 2023 to 15th Feb 2024 - Nifty was in a narrow range of 21491 to 21913 with a couple of false breakouts/breakdowns. So we are keeping our fingers crossed this time to validate whether it works out. One way to do that is to check for follow-through price action. Blips do not last that long and we usually fall below the resistance (just like what happened on the last 2 occasions). Today is the first time I guess Nifty made the move ahead of BankNifty for a direction change. BankNifty has a lot of headroom left and if it catches up to its ATH - the impact on Nifty is going to be more than awesome. 63mts candle
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
15 Feb ’24 — BankNifty has to scale above 47016 to go bullishBankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ BankNifty also does not get a stance revision today, but the progress it has made in the bullish direction is commendable. The first thing it did today was to defend the descending trendline (see encircled region). And from there it almost followed a steady 45-degree climb - showing strength. Except for the first 45 minutes, we did not have a selling pressure or a bear attack. It seems like the bears had thrown in the towel yesterday itself. 4mts chart In the 63mts chart, BN’s ability to defend the support is second to none. The only reason it is stuck in the neutral zone is because of the bear attack it had on 17th Jan. We are almost getting to those levels now. BankNifty’s contribution is very crucial to help Nifty’s next move. Since N50 is waiting to go bullish, a mere push from BN will give a multiplier effect due to the weightage it carries. For tomorrow we wish to start the day with a neutral stance and go bullish only of 47016 trend line is getting broken. 63mts chart Algo Trading Our BankNifty algo trades ended today with a loss of Rs3190
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
15 Feb ’24 — Nifty within kissing distance of a Bullish breakoutNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: “In the 63mts chart, see the encircled region — the strength of the green candles stands out prominently. This has given Nifty a total makeover, till yesterday we were neutral with a moderate bearish bias. Today we are still neutral but with a bullish bias — as the resistance of 21913 is much closer than the support of 21491.” 4mts chart Nifty has lived up to the expectation today, the momentum it gained yesterday post 14.07 was legitimate. Not only did Nifty hold its ground today but showed intent to take out the 21913 resistance. The open was right at that zone but we quickly lost a few points. The candle at 09.47 carried the hidden message that a breakout was in the cards. That single candle had a swing range of 73 points. Even though we did not do anything unusual till 13.31 - the options premium was going crazy. One mistake I made was to switch to the next-weekly instead of the current one as I felt a breakout would happen post 3 PM. The break came early at 13.35 and what it did was shoot up the CE premiums, nothing unusual in that. But the PEs were not dropping in value. So on one side, my short CEs were trading in deep RED whereas the short PEs were not going into green. Meanwhile, the breakout did not prove successful - but it definitely woke up the bulls. Almost all the top 8 components were reacting positively to this break. The final close was right near the 21913 SR zone. Over the last week, Nifty rose 166 points ~ 0.76% and if you notice the 63-minute time frame - it has formed a triple bottom-like formation on a descending trendline. Since Nifty already retraced back to the resistance level - we assume it is ready for the next leg of outperformance. The first thing it has to make sure tomorrow is to defend the 21913 levels - if it falls below that, the bullish breakout will not pick up pace. A gap-up is ideal as it will quickly tip the balance to the Bulls as short sellers will have to run for cover. We wish to change the status from neutral to bullish only if we get a 63mts candle above the 21913 resistance line. 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
14 Feb ’24 — BankNifty takes out the resistance and goes neutralBankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ BankNifty does the impossible today, the reason we are saying this is because, despite a UP day yesterday, BN was unable to get past the resistance of 45399. See what happened today - we opened gap-down and by 10.55 we were back at the resistance level of 45399. The rejection made sense then as the mood was still bearish and little we did know what the remainder of the day had in store. The elongated encircled region is when BN was still negotiating in and around the SR level. Once it got past that - the next test was at the purple descending trend line (which we drew yesterday). That was also kind of accurate as on 3 instances we had a contact. 4mts chart The climb of 670pts from 14.07 to 14.39 made all the difference today. It drove our algo into a tailspin and ensured that we booked the highest intraday loss till now. You might already know most algos prefer to play straddle or strangles and today being the expiry day created more trouble. The calls when sold were damn cheap and when the stop loss got hit - it appreciated more than 100 to 200%. Yesterday we pointed out the unusual skew in the PUT and CALL premiums, the calls staying cheap. Today we fell victim to that. 63mts chart We have another W pattern today and since the resistance is breached, it is a good sign for the bulls. Overall our stance is now revised to neutral from bearish. What is more interesting is that BN has a perfect at-par close with the last expiry i.e. 7th Feb. The first thing we will be looking out for tomorrow is to see if there is follow-up buying or whether what we witnessed today was just a blip. Algo Trading Our BankNifty algo trades ended today with a loss of 11805.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram