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GBPUSD: Sellers approach multi-month-old support before US dataGBPUSD is slipping from last week’s bounce off a six-month support line. Traders are watching for Tuesday's US Consumer Confidence report, while the strong US Dollar and cautious mood ahead of the US Q3 GDP figures, inflation data, and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are putting pressure on the Pound Sterling. Bears lose momentum While GBPUSD buyers aren’t gaining traction, sellers will struggle to take control. There are multiple support levels, and indicators like the RSI (14) and a weakening bearish MACD signal may hinder the bear’s progress. Key technical levels to watch Watch for the upward support line from late April around 1.2935, followed by the 200-SMA near 1.2800, as near-term key levels to watch for the GBPUSD sellers. If the bears push below 1.2800, look for support at the August and June lows around 1.2665 and 1.2610. GBPUSD needs to break the ascending trend line from early March near 1.3080 for a recovery. Additional resistance levels include the psychological barrier at 1.3000 and the 50-SMA at 1.3140. Lastly, a horizontal resistance zone near 1.3240 serves as a crucial barrier for buyers. Further downside appears less convincing With the bearish trend losing momentum, expectations for fewer rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve could change if upcoming data doesn't support US Dollar strength. This uncertainty calls for caution among GBPUSD sellers.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD: Bears face limited downside ahead of BoE's Bailey speechOn Tuesday morning, GBPUSD is testing the 100-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) support, pulling back from last week's bounce. Traders are on alert as they await comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. Sellers keep the reins but have limited downside room available While GBPUSD’s failure to stay above the 100-EMA and bearish MACD signals encourage sellers, a declining RSI (14) and a six-month-old ascending support line suggest only limited room for further decline. Key technical levels to watch The GBPUSD pair is currently supported by the 100-EMA around 1.2985 and an upward trend line near 1.2950, limiting immediate downside potential. If these levels break, the 50% Fibonacci retracement from April to September at 1.2865 could attract sellers, followed by the 61.8% retracement and August low at 1.2730 and 1.2665. On the upside, the 50-EMA and the 23.6% Fibonacci level around 1.3085 and 1.3165 will be crucial barriers. However, the key focus will be the horizontal resistance zone near 1.3230-40. If GBPUSD can hold above 1.3040, the next target could be around 1.3315-20, with the previous monthly high at 1.3435 acting as a potential stopping point. Bears approach key support zone GBPUSD is nearing important support levels as traders wait for comments from BoE’s Bailey, along with this week’s UK and US PMIs and Durable Goods Orders. With a more hawkish stance from the Fed compared to the BoE and concerns about the UK’s economic strength relative to the US, the pair is likely to maintain its downward trend, even if the downside potential seems limited.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD: Testing key support as Cable traders await major UK dataGBPUSD pokes a three-month support region as pressure builds ahead of the UK employment and inflation data, as well as the US Retail Sales, set to release this week. Pound Sterling bears flex muscles Despite several technical levels testing the GBPUSD sellers, a potential bear cross between the 100-bar and 200-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) keeps the bears optimistic. The weakening bullish momentum in the MACD and a steady RSI support the downside outlook. Additionally, a sustained break below an ascending support line from early August, now acting as resistance, favors the bears. Key technical levels to watch The GBPUSD pair is currently held up by a three-month support zone around 1.3040-30, just above the psychological level of 1.3000. If it drops below 1.3000, a quick decline to the late July swing high around 1.2940 and then to early August peaks near 1.2870-60 could follow. In a case where the Pound Sterling remains bearish past 1.2860, it becomes vulnerable to slump toward August’s bottom of near 1.2665. On the flip side, GBPUSD recovery remains elusive below the 100 and 200 EMAs, currently near 1.3145 and 1.3150. A seven-week horizontal resistance zone near 1.3230-40 and a previous support line around 1.3330 also pose challenges for Cable buyers. If bulls can push past 1.3330, a rally toward the last monthly high near 1.3435 is possible. Sellers stay in control While robust technical support is challenging GBP/USD sellers, a dovish outlook for the Bank of England and anticipated weak UK data, alongside rising hawkish sentiment from the Fed, may keep bears in control. Upcoming data could create some volatility, but the bearish sentiment remains strong.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD: “Rising Wedge” signals selling pressure on PoundGBPUSD experienced its biggest decline in a week the previous day as the US Dollar strengthened ahead of the September jobs data. The Pound Sterling tested a bearish rising wedge pattern but managed to bounce back from the lower line of this formation. Despite this slight recovery, traders are cautious and watching closely as they await the US ADP Employment Change report on Wednesday, followed by the important Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data on Friday. Sellers flex muscles… Besides the US Dollar’s rebound before the key US data, bearish MACD signals also keep the GBPUSD sellers hopeful. However, the nearly oversold conditions of RSI (14), the quote’s sustained trading beyond the 200-SMA, and downbeat expectations from the US statistics suggest a long and bumpy road for the bears. Technical levels to watch… If GBP/USD falls below 1.3240, it will confirm a bearish rising wedge pattern, making this level critical for traders. Another important support level is the 200-SMA at 1.3180. Should the pair break below this, it may target the horizontal support zone around 1.3030, with 1.3000 serving as a psychological level. Further declines could lead to August's low near 1.2665 and possibly down to the wedge's target of 1.2370. On the upside, the GBPUSD pair faces resistance at 1.3310 and 1.3360, with the latest peak around 1.3435. If the pair breaks above 1.3435, it will encounter the top line of the rising wedge near 1.3465. Successfully moving past 1.3465 could set the stage for a rally toward the February 2022 high of about 1.3645. Expect a price pullback, but not a significant drop Overall, the GBPUSD buyers appear to be losing momentum, with sellers positioned near the bottom of the wedge and the 200-SMA. However, potential weakness in US data and several support levels make it challenging for sellers to gain full control.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD: Post-FOMC optimism stays intact despite pre-BoE retreatGBPUSD consolidates Fed-induced gains as traders await monetary policy announcements from the Bank of England (BoE). That said, the Cable pair reached a fresh 30-month high after the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 0.50% rate cut that drowned the US Dollar across the board. Buyers stay optimist Although the Pound Sterling struggles to hold at a 2.5-month high, not to forget its failure to provide sustained breakout of a month-old horizontal resistance, the quote defends the mid-month breakout of a descending resistance line from late August, now support. Also keeping buyers hopeful is the pair’s recent rebound from the 100-SMA and steady RSI conditions. It’s worth noting, however, that the bearish MACD signals and a likely status-quo of the BoE could join the key upside hurdle to challenge the bulls. Technical levels to watch For GBPUSD buyers, the immediate resistance to watch is a month-old range between 1.3230 and 1.3240 if the BoE sounds hawkish. After that, the focus will shift to the 1.3300 level. If the Cable price stays above 1.3300, the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci Extension (FE) levels around 1.3305 and 1.3375 could attract buyers. On the flip side, GBPUSD sellers need a clear break below the 1.3150-45 support zone, which includes the 100-SMA and a month-old previous resistance line, to weaken buyer’s confidence. If they succeed, the next tests will be the 1.3100 level and the 200-SMA at 1.3025, as well as the key psychological level of 1.3000. Upward bias seems favorable Whether due to an expected hawkish pause from the BoE or the market's response to the Fed's dovish surprise, along with GBPUSD trading above the 1.3150-45 resistance-turned-support, the pair is likely to stay bullish unless the UK central bank surprises traders.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD hovers at 29-month high on UK Bank HolidayGBPUSD licks its wounds at the highest level since March 2022 as the overbought RSI line jostles with an upside break of the ascending resistance line, now support around 1.3060. This breakout, along with strong MACD signals and a weaker US Dollar, could push the pair towards the 1.3440 level, where it meets the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement from May 2021 to September 2022. However, reaching the 1.3620 resistance level might be challenging for buyers. On the flip side, the aforementioned resistance-turned-support line puts a floor under the GBPUSD prices around 1.3060. That said, the 1.3000 psychological magnet also acts as a short-term support for the Cable pair traders to watch. In a case where the Pound Sterling bears keep the reins past 1.3000, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, also known as the Golden Fibonacci Ratio, near 1.2780, quickly followed by the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) surrounding 1.2730, will act as the final defenses of the buyers. Overall, GBPUSD is gearing up to test a long-term resistance line. With the UK on holiday and a cautious market awaiting US inflation data, the pair might pause its advance early this week.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD buyers can ignore pullback from one-month highGBPUSD snaps a three-day winning streak by easing from its highest level in a month as the US Dollar licks its wounds at the multi-month low. Despite this retreat, the Cable pair is still trading within a long-term upward trend channel and above important support levels. The positive signals from the RSI and MACD suggest that the Pound Sterling could still rise. The immediate support is a 10-day-old rising support line surrounding 1.2880, with further support at 1.2800 from the 50-SMA. If the price drops further, the next supports are at 1.2675 (200-SMA) and 1.2450 (trend channel bottom). On the upside, the GBPUSD pair’s ability to break through the yearly high and the upper trend channel near 1.3045-50 will be tested to keep buyers on the table. The 1.3000 level is also a key resistance point, with the potential to push towards 1.3100 and the mid-2023 peak of around 1.3145 later on. Overall, GBPUSD remains an appealing option for buyers, even if short-term gains slow down.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD drops to resistance-turned-support with eyes on Fed, BoEGBPUSD remains pressured after refreshing a three-week low the previous day. In doing so, the Cable pair extends the mid-week retreat from a year-long horizontal resistance while posting the first daily closing beneath the 21-SMA since July 02, 2024. Apart from that, the bearish MACD signals and the RSI line’s hovering around the 50.00 region also suggest the Pound Sterling’s further weakness. However, a previous resistance line stretched from late July 2023, close to 1.2835 at the latest, restricts the immediate downside of the quote. Following that, 50-SMA and a three-month-old ascending trend line, respectively near 1.2780 and 1.2760, will act as the final defenses of buyers before giving control to the sellers. Meanwhile, GBPUSD buyers will need validation from the 21-SMA hurdle of 1.2872 and monetary policy announcements of the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England (BoE). Even so, the 78.6% Fibonacci ratio of its July-October 2023 downturn and the aforementioned horizontal resistance region, close to 1.2910 and 1.3000 in that order, will be tough nuts to crack for the Pound Sterling bulls. If the Cable pair stays firmer past 1.3000, the previous yearly peak surrounding 1.3145 will be in the spotlight. To sum up, the GBPUSD pair is likely to decline further but the road toward the south appears long and bumpy.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD bulls run out of steam near 1.3000, UK inflation eyedGBPUSD seesaws at the highest level in a year ahead of the UK’s monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June. In doing so, the Cable pair justifies the overbought RSI (14) line as buyers struggle around a one-year-old horizontal resistance zone, close to 1.2995-3000. It’s worth noting, however, that the bullish MACD signals and the quote’s sustained trading beyond a downward-sloping resistance line from July 2023, now support around 1.2840, keeps the bulls hopeful. Even if the pair drops beneath the 1.2840 resistance-turned-support, the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of 1.2627 will be the last defense of the bulls. It should be observed that the 78.6% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracements of the quote’s July-October 2023 downturn, respectively near 1.2910 and 1.2720, are additional downside filters to watch during the bear run. Alternatively, GBPUSD bulls need validation from the upbeat UK inflation clues and the 1.2995-3000 upside hurdle to keep the reins. Following that, the Pound Sterling could rise toward the previous yearly high of 1.3142. However, the 1.3100 threshold may act as an intermediate halt during the rise. In a case where the quote remains firmer past 1.3142, the late 2021 swing low of around 1.3150-55 and the 1.3200 round figure can test the bulls before directing them toward the January 2022 low of near 1.3355. Overall, GBPUSD appears overdue for a pullback but the bullish trend could remain intact.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD pokes key upside hurdles as UK/US PMI, Fed Minutes loomGBPUSD struggles to defend the five-day uptrend early Wednesday as traders await key activity numbers from the UK and the US, as well as Minutes of the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting. It’s worth noting that the US Dollar’s weakness past Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech propelled the quote’s previous rebound from a two-month-old horizontal support, enabling buyers to poke the 100-bar SMA. Also underpinning the upside bias are the firmer RSI conditions and the bullish MACD signals. However, the 100-SMA’s bearish cross of the 200-SMA, known as the death cross, challenges the Cable buyers unless crossing the broader moving average, namely the 200-SMA hurdle of 1.2715. Following that, the mid-June swing high of around 1.2740 and 1.2800 become imminent targets for the Pound Sterling buyers before aiming for the previous monthly high of around 1.2860. Meanwhile, GBPUSD sellers need firmer US data and hawkish Fed Minutes, as well as a successful break of the aforementioned two-month-old horizontal support surrounding 1.2610-15. Following that, the Cable bears will aim for the 1.2550 and the 1.2500 thresholds ahead of challenging May’s bottom surrounding 1.2445. It should be observed that the Pound Sterling’s sustained weakness past 1.2445 will make it vulnerable to challenge the yearly low marked in April surrounding 1.2300. To sum up, the GBPUSD bulls are at a crossroads and need a fundamental push to keep the reins.
by MTradingGlobal
1
GBPUSD defends week-start recovery as UK employment data loomsGBPUSD stays defensive above 1.2700 as traders await the UK’s monthly employment data early Tuesday. In doing so, the Pound Sterling keeps the previous day’s recovery from a seven-week-old rising support line and the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Monday’s rebound also justifies an uptick in the RSI (14) line but fails to gather momentum amid bearish MACD signals. As a result, the Cable pair is likely to mark another attempt to cross a descending resistance line from July 2023, close to the 1.2800 threshold at the latest. However, any further upside appears lacking acceptance, which if takes place could challenge the yearly high marked in March around 1.2895 and the 1.2900 round figure. Should the buyers keep the reins past 1.2900, the 1.3000 psychological magnet and late 2023 peak of 1.3142 will be in the spotlight. On the contrary, the 21-day EMA level of 1.2710 and the aforementioned rising support line, close to the 1.2700 mark, restrict the short-term downside of the GBPUSD pair. It’s worth noting, however, that the Pound Sterling’s sustained weakness beneath 1.2700 will direct sellers toward the early May swing high of nearly 1.2635 and then to the 50% Fibonacci ratio of the pair’s July-October 2023 fall, near 1.2590. Following that, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of around 1.2455 and an upward-sloping trend line from October 2023, near 1.2400, will act as the final defense of the bulls. Overall, the GBPUSD pair is likely to extend the latest recovery ahead of the UK employment data but the upside room appears limited, which in turn suggests the need for strongly positive statistics to defend the buyers.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD crosses key resistance to refresh 11-week highGBPUSD rises to the highest level since mid-March by crossing an 11-month-old descending resistance line, now immediate support near 1.2800. The bullish MACD signals and the Pound Sterling’s ability to trade successfully beyond the 100-SMA also underpin the upside bias. It’s worth noting, however, that the nearly overbought RSI (14) line challenges the quote’s further advances, highlighting the yearly peak marked in March around 1.2895, quickly followed by the 1.2900 threshold, as the key upside hurdles. In a case where the Cable remains firmer past 1.2900, the 1.3000 psychological magnet will be the last defense of the bears before directing buyers toward the late 2023 peak of surrounding 1.3145. Conversely, a daily closing beneath 1.2800 will defy the GBPUSD pair’s latest resistance break. The same could direct the sellers toward a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the July-October 2023 downturn, near 1.2720. Even so, the Pound Sterling bears need to wait for a clear downside break of the six-week-old rising support line, close to 1.2655, as well as the 100-SMA level of 1.2635, to retake control. Should the Cable drop beneath 1.2635, it becomes vulnerable to drop toward February’s low marked around 1.2520. Overall, GBPUSD gains the buyer’s attention as it clears the key upside hurdle. However, the room toward the north appears limited.
by MTradingGlobal
Overbought RSI, 1.2810 hurdle will test GBPUSD bullsGBPUSD rises for the third consecutive day while refreshing the two-month high. In doing so, the Cable pair cheers a pullback in the US Dollar, as well as the recent hawkish commentary from the Bank of England (BoE) officials. However, the overbought RSI (14) conditions will join a downward-sloping resistance line from July 2023, close to 1.2810 by the press time, to test the buyers. In a case where the quote remains firmer past 1.2810, the yearly high marked in March around 1.2895, quickly followed by the 1.2900 threshold, will precede the 1.3000 psychological magnet to attract the bids. Alternatively, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the GBPUSD pair’s July-October downside, near 1.2720, acts as immediate support to watch during a fresh pullback. Following that, April’s high near 1.2710 and the 100-SMA level surrounding 1.2630 should lure the Pound Sterling bears. It’s worth noting, however, that the Cable pair’s bearish trend remains elusive unless witnessing a daily closing beneath a convergence of the 50-SMA and a five-week-old rising support line, close to 1.2580 as we write. Overall, the GBPUSD pair marches toward the key upside hurdle as most traders return to their desks after a long weekend in the US and the UK.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD bulls jostle with key upside hurdles within rising wedgeGBPUSD struggles to extend the biggest weekly gains since early March while confronting a five-week-old horizontal resistance area surrounding 1.2700-2710 early Monday. In doing so, the Pound Sterling takes clues from the overbought RSI (14) and the sluggish MACD signals while hovering near the upper end of the one-month-old rising wedge bearish chart formation. It’s worth noting that the pair’s upside clearance of 1.2710 won’t be an open invitation to the Cable buyers as the stated wedge’s top-line surrounding 1.2720 will test the upside momentum. Following that, the quote’s advances toward the late March high of near 1.2800 and then to the yearly peak of around 1.2895 can’t be ruled out. It’s worth mentioning, however, that the oscillators suggest a pullback in the GBPUSD price and hence a horizontal resistance area comprising the tops marked since early May, close to 1.2635-45, gains the market’s attention. In a case where the Cable prices drop beneath the 1.2635, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of March-April fall, surrounding the 1.2600 threshold, will lure the sellers. Above all, a convergence of the 200-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the aforementioned rising wedge’s lower line, close to 1.2565-60, appears a tough nut to crack for the pair sellers, a break of which will confirm the bearish chart pattern suggesting a theoretical fall targeting the area surrounding mid-1.2100s. In summary, the GBPUSD pair will likely witness a pullback in the prices but the bears need validation from the 1.2565-60 and the UK inflation/PMI data.
by MTradingGlobal
2
GBPUSD pokes nine-week-old resistance as key UK/US data loomGBPUSD regains upside momentum, after posting the first weekly loss in three, as buyers defend the previous week’s reversal from the 20-SMA to poke a downward-sloping resistance line stretched from early March, close to 1.2560 at the latest. The Cable pair’s recovery also takes clues from the bullish MACD signals and the upbeat RSI conditions, not overbought. With this, the Pound Sterling is likely to cross the immediate upside hurdle and aim for the 100-SMA resistance of 1.2633. Following that, the 1.2700 threshold and late March’s swing high near 1.2800 could test the buyers before directing them to the yearly top surrounding 1.2895. Meanwhile, the quote’s pullback needs validation from the 20-SMA support of 1.2495 to convince sellers. Even so, the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci ratios of the Cable pair’s run-up from October 2023 to March 2024, respectively near 1.2460 and 1.2365, will challenge the bears. It’s worth noting that the yearly bottom marked in April, close to 1.2300, appears the last defense of the GBPUSD buyers, a break of which will open doors for the pair’s gradual fall toward the late 2023 swing low of near 1.2030 and then to the 1.2000 psychological magnet. Overall, GBPUSD remains on the front foot despite last week’s failure to cross the aforementioned resistance line. However, the technical formation also needs support from the UK employment report and the US inflation clues to convince the bulls.
by MTradingGlobal
100-SMA prods GBPUSD bears on BoE Super ThursdayGBPUSD stays defensive at the lowest level in a week, snapping a two-day losing streak, as the pair traders await the Bank of England’s (BoE) Monetary Policy Announcements, as well as the quarterly monetary policy report that makes the day a “Super Thursday”. It’s worth noting that the 100-SMA puts a short-term trading floor under the prices near 1.2480, especially amid the downbeat RSI suggesting a pause in the previous fall. However, the bearish MACD signals and the quote’s sustained downside break of a two-week-old support line, now immediate resistance surrounding 1.2515, and clear trading beneath a downward-sloping trend line resistance stretched since mid-March, at 1.2585 at the latest, keeps the sellers hopeful. Even if the Pound Sterling gains support from the BoE and rises past 1.2585, the monthly high of 1.2634 will be the last defense of the bears before giving control to the bulls. Meanwhile, a downside break of the 100-SMA support of 1.2480, as well as the BoE’s inability to convince the GBPUSD bulls, will resume a south run targeting the 1.2400 threshold. In a case where the Cable bears keep the reins past 1.2400, the yearly bottom marked in April surrounding 1.2300 and the 61.8% Fibonacci Extension (FE) of the quote’s March-May moves, near 1.2265, will be in the spotlight ahead of the late 2023 bottom of near 1.2067. Overall, the GBPUSD pair remains in a bearish trend on the BoE Super Thursday despite the latest consolidation. Hence, even a surprise rebound should not be considered a bullish sign.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD bull’s journey to retake control appears long and bumpyGBPUSD grinds higher past 50% Fibonacci retracement of October 2023 to March 2024 upside as traders await more clues about Friday’s US employment report for April. In doing so, the Pound Sterling extends the late April rebound from a 61.8% Fibonacci ratio surrounding 1.2365, also known as the golden Fibonacci ratio. That said, the bullish MACD signals and a steady RSI (14) line also underpin the Cable pair’s recovery moves targeting the 200-SMA hurdle of 1.2550. In a case where the quote remains firmer past 1.2550, a five-month-old support-turned-resistance line around 1.2570 will test the buyers before directing them to a downward-sloping resistance line stretched from March, close to 1.2600. Following that, the 100-SMA hurdle of 1.2650 will act as the final defense of the sellers ahead of giving up control. Alternatively, the GBPUSD pair’s pullback could aim for the 50.0% and 61.8% Fibonacci ratios, respectively around 1.2465 and 1.2365. However, Pound Sterling’s fall past 1.2365 will make it vulnerable to drop toward the yearly low marked in April around 1.2300. It should be noted that the pair’s weakness past 1.2300 won’t hesitate to challenge the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.2220 and the late 2023 low of around 1.2035. Overall, the GBPUSD pair is likely to extend the latest recovery but there are multiple resistances to challenge the bull’s confidence.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD rebounds from Golden Fibonacci ratio, “Falling Wedge” eyeGBPUSD bears take a breather after a two-week downtrend as the quote bounces off the lowest level since mid-November 2023. In doing so, the Pound Sterling takes a U-turn from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its run-up from October 2023 to February 2024, also known as the “Golden Fibonacci Ratio”, while justifying the traders’ consolidation ahead of this week’s key UK/US catalysts. That said, the oversold RSI line and a receding bearish bias on the MACD favor the quote’s further rebound, which in turn highlights the monthly falling wedge bullish chart formation. However, the pair’s successful trading beyond 1.2440 becomes necessary to lure the buyers. Even so, a 4.5-month-old previous support line and the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), respectively near 1.2545 and 1.2560, will be the key upside hurdles to test the Cable’s north-run. On the contrary, the aforementioned key Fibonacci retracement support restricts the immediate downside of the GBPUSD pair to around 1.2360. Following that, the stated falling wedge’s bottom line, near 1.2345 at the latest, quickly followed by the October 2023 peak of 1.2337, could act as the final defense of the Pound Sterling buyers before surrendering to the sellers. In that case, the 78.6% Fibonacci ratio surrounding 1.2220 will be in the spotlight before the late 2023 bottoms around 1.2070 and 1.2037. Overall, the GBPUSD pair’s corrective bounce appears overdue but the road toward the north will be long and bumpy.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD hovers at five-month low, UK Inflation, BoE’s Bailey eyedGBPUSD traders lick their wounds at the lowest level in five months early Wednesday as the monthly UK inflation data, namely the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and a speech from Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey loom. Apart from the pre-data anxiety, the oversold RSI (14) also challenges the Pound Sterling sellers at a multi-day bottom. With this, the corrective bounce can aim for the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the Cable’s run-up from September 2023 to March 2024, close to 1.2465, if backed by upbeat UK data and hawkish comments from BoE’s Bailey. It’s worth noting, however, that an ascending resistance line from early December, previous support around 1.2545, will precede the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of 1.2565 to test the buyers afterward. Above all, a convergence of the 50-EMA and a five-week-old downward-sloping trend line, near 1.2625 at the latest, appears a tough nut to crack for the bulls before retaking control. On the contrary, downbeat UK inflation clues and BoE Governor Bailey’s failure to convince policy hawks could join the bearish MACD signals to exert downside pressure on the GBPUSD pair. In that case, a horizontal area comprising lows marked in November 2023, close to 1.2370-75, will lure the Pound Sterling bears. Following that, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and October 2023 peak, respectively near 1.2365 and 1.2330, could test the sellers. In a case where the quote remains weak past 1.2330, the odds of witnessing a southward trajectory toward the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and then to the previous yearly low, near 1.2220 and 1.2035 in that order, can’t be ruled out. Overall, GBPUSD bears appear running out of steam but the road toward the north appears long and bumpy.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD sellers attack 1.2540 key support ahead of UK/US dataGBPUSD fades bounce off the yearly low, marked the previous day, following its failure to cross the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ahead of top-tier UK/US data on Friday. Apart from the failure to cross the key EMA hurdle, the bearish MACD signals and lackluster RSI (14) line also suggest a continuation of the Cable pair’s south-run. However, a daily closing beneath an upward-sloping support line stretched from December 2023, close to 1.2540 at the latest, becomes necessary for the bears to tighten the grip. Even so, February’s low of 1.2520 and late 2023 trough surrounding the 1.2500 threshold could challenge the Pound Sterling’s further downside. It’s worth noting, however, that the quote’s weakness past 1.2500 will make it vulnerable to plunge toward mid-November 2023’s low of near 1.2375. Alternatively, the GBPUSD pair’s recovery needs a daily closing beyond the 200-EMA level of 1.2567 to convince short-term buyers. Even so, a five-week-old descending resistance line and the monthly high will challenge the Pound Sterling’s further upside around 1.2645 and 1.2710 in that order. It’s worth noting that the pair’s upside beyond 1.2710 enables it to confront a four-month-long horizontal resistance area surrounding 1.2790-2805. Following that, the Cable buyer’s ability to renew the yearly high, currently around 1.2900, can’t be ruled out. Overall, the GBPUSD pair is on the way to bear’s platter as a slew of monthly UK data dump and the US UoM Consumer Sentiment Index occupy Friday’s economic calendar.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD rebound remains unconvincing below 1.2700Wednesday’s broadband US Dollar weakness allowed GBPUSD bulls to extend the week-start rebound from an upward-sloping support line stretched from December 2023. The Cable pair’s recovery also gained support from the upbeat RSI (14) line and bullish MACD signals. However, the 100 and 200-bar Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), respectively around 1.2650 and 1.2665, guard the immediate upside of the pair. Following that, a one-month-old descending resistance line surrounding 1.2700 will be the last defense of the sellers. In a case where the quote remains firmer past 1.2700, the odds of witnessing a run-up toward the late March swing high of 1.2800 and then to the yearly peak of 1.2893 can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, a slew of technical levels stands ready to challenge the GBPUSD bears beyond the 1.2600 threshold. Even if the Pound Sterling drops beneath the 1.2600 support, the aforementioned multi-day-old support line, near 1.2540 as we write, will restrict the quote’s further downside. It’s worth noting that the 2024 low and December 2023 trough could act as the last hurdles for the sellers around 1.2520 and 1.2500 in that order, a break of which could make the prices vulnerable to slump toward the 1.2400 mark. Overall, the GBPUSD pair is likely to witness further upside but the reversal of a month-long bearish trend needs validation from the 1.2700 breakout, as well as the downbeat US data.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD sellers need validation from 1.2565 and UK/US GDPGBPUSD prints mild losses around 1.2630 while paring the first weekly gains in three, so far, as traders await Thursday’s final prints of the UK and US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2024. In doing so, the Pound Sterling struggles to defend the previous week’s rebound from the 200-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) amid downbeat RSI (14) line. However, the bearish MACD signals and the Cable pair’s sustained trading beneath the convergence of 50-EMA and previous support line stretched from early February, around 1.2680 at the latest, keep the sellers hopeful. That said, the quote needs to provide a daily closing beneath the 200-EMA level of 1.2565 to confirm the further downside. Following that, the yearly low of 1.2518 and December 2023 bottom surrounding 1.2500 will act as the final defense of the bulls. On the flip side, a daily closing beyond the 1.2680 resistance confluence comprising the 50-EMA and the previous support line could recall the GBPUSD pair buyers. Should the quote remain firmer past 1.2680, the 15-week-old horizontal resistance zone will challenge the bulls around 1.2795-2805. In a case where the Pound Sterling rises beyond 1.2805, the yearly peak of 1.2893 and the 1.3000 psychological magnet will be in the spotlight. Overall, the GBPUSD pair remains bearish ahead of the key UK/US GDP data but the downside room appears limited.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD bulls keep eyes on 1.2900 and BoEGBPUSD bulls take a breather at a weekly high, after rising the most in a fortnight the previous day, as traders await the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy announcements on Thursday. Also important will be the preliminary UK S&P Global/CIPS PMIs for March. That said, the quote’s successful break of a two-week-old descending resistance line, now support, as well as the 50-SMA, joins the bullish MACD signals to keep the buyers hopeful. However, a horizontal resistance area comprising tops marked since March 08, close to 1.2820-25, will join the overbought RSI line to challenge the Pound Sterling’s further upside. In a case where the Cable pair remains firmer past 1.2825, the odds of witnessing a quick run-up toward the monthly high surrounding 1.2900 can’t be ruled out. On the flip side, the 50-SMA and the aforementioned resistance-turned-support line could restrict the short-term downside of the GBPUSD pair to around 1.2760 and 1.2740 respectively. Following that, a convergence of the 200-SMA and a five-week-old rising trend line, near 1.2670 by the press time, will be a tough nut to crack for the Cable sellers. Should the quote remain bearish past 1.2670, the monthly low of around 1.2600 and the previous monthly bottom surrounding 1.2520 will be in the spotlight. To sum up, the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) dovish halt allowed GBPUSD to cross the short-term upside hurdle and lure the buyers ahead of the key UK PMIs and the BoE monetary policy decisions. It’s worth noting that the BoE isn’t expected to offer any change in the current monetary policy but can push back the rate cut bias toward late 2024 and help the British Pound (GBP) to defend the latest run-up.
by MTradingGlobal