Niftybank moments for option trading 19/nov/2024Niftybank moments for option trading 19/nov/2024
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BANKNIFTY241009P53500parallel channel formation in BANKNIFTY241009P53500
if sustain above the upper line then it may give good move
Nifty: Chart set up and trading strategyNifty
- Nifty has given a breakout from the Blue box and is now trading in the yellow box
- 252 day EMA @ 17396
- 63 day EMA near 17540
- Line of Resistance 17620 odd levels around 20 April 2023
- 21 day EMA around 17240
- Lower level of Yellow box 17220 odd levels
- RBI Policy Announcement on 6th April 2023
- Result Calendar to begin soon
View: Rangebound for the next 2 weeks
Trading Strategy: Short Strangle for Nifty 13 April / 20 April expiry
Expected trading range for Nifty till 19th April 2023
- 17620 on the upside
- 17240 on the downside
Take care & safe trading...!!!
Disclaimer
- The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
Nifty: But I still haven't found what I'm looking for...Nifty
Yesterday if we observe in daily candlestick charts Nifty formed a Doji candle - suggesting indecisiveness.
Today on a 15 min candle we observe Nifty struggling to stay above yesterday's high as of now.
Based on data analysis, FIIs were once again seen selling Index Futures. That makes it clear why Nifty has struggled so far. Now that Nifty is near their cost, will we see FIIs covering their Shorts?
Mind you the Long:: Short ratio of FIIs in Index Futures is 1::7.8 This ratio is similar what I have seen in early Mar 2020, 3 weeks before the Lock down announcement.
Either they know something that we don't know or we might see them covering their short in a day or two.
For Bulls to have any hope, Nifty needs to above 17131 odd levels and sustain above 17065 for 2 more days thereafter.
Plan your trade accordingly and focus on managing your risk.
Reliance: Chart set up and trading strategyReliance
We are looking at Daily chart of Reliance Industries
Observations
- 2420-2450 has the potential to act as resistance
- One may also look at the Red Line of Resistance as potential supply zone
- 2180-2220 has the potential to provide support to the stock
- The Green Line of Support comes around 2163
Given the chart setup,
My view : Rangebound between 2220-2450
My trading strategy: Short strangle strategy for Mar 2023 series
Sell 29 Mar 2500 Call option &
Sell 29 Mar 2200 Put option
Understanding risk profile and reward potential
The strategy has a profit potential of approximately 14.5% till 29 Mar 2023 on Margin requirement and has in built loss protection
- for a fall up to 2142 on the downside and
- for a rise up to 2558 on the upside
Review points for me
2220 on the downside &
2450 /2485 on the upside
The review points should give ample scope to adjust / exit in case view is getting invalidated.
Take care & safe trading...!!!
Disclaimer
- The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
Nifty: Nifty expiry Target of 17564 done for us!!!Nifty
17564
If you have been following me,
Nifty has respected most of the levels identified with the help of Technical Analysis
The yellow zone above 18000 has been drawn long back. You can check my previous post
Thereafter, I have been suggesting this case: if Nifty starts trading below the blue line then probability is very strong for Nifty testing the red line.
I had given a figure of Nifty closing below 17836-17854 odd levels could be a cue of Nifty testing 17564.
We cannot time the market but when time comes we can sure make the most of it.
I was expecting this test to happen on Thursday but market has it's own way. It has done that today itself. However it gave ample opportunity to entry. We had positioned earlier with a Bear Call Spread strategy. When Market gave signals by breaking below the Blue line we took some aggressive bets as well by Buying Mar series Put options as well. Yesterday Nifty closed a tad below 17836 levels at 17826.
Results are in front of you... How doing your study well can reward you... We have booked profits in stages today with complete profit booking done when Nifty came to 17564
This is not a case of any fresh trade but a post to make you understand that when times are tough study will help you and can keep you ahead .
Invest your time in learning...!!!
Trust my analysis has been of help...🙏
Like and Follow To trade with me...!!!
Take care & safe trading...!!!
Nifty: How I am looking at closing. Did my analysis helped? Nifty
- When Nifty was at 18060-18065 odd levels short was recommended.
Currently Nifty is down 170 odd points.
For Positional play, today's close is very important
- Watch out for 17860-17800 odd levels on the downside. If taken down, it could trigger more selling pressure. Bears might start tightening their grip
- Between 17860-17965 odd levels and the Battle of Bulls and Bears is still in balance
- above 17965 Bulls might have an upper hand
- going forward closing above 18035 on daily charts and I would consider exiting my short position
- below 17800 doors might open up for fall up to 17484 odd levels
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Take care & safe trading...!!!
Disclaimer
- The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
Nifty: Budget time and chart set upNifty
Chart set up
- In the last 2 days Nifty has closed in positive territory, however it has found it difficult to close above 50% of last red candlestick which comes at 17740 odd levels
- a lot of resistance between 17740-18140
- on the lower side Nifty has a risk of falling towards 17331 / 17188 / 17096 odd levels
Derivative Data
- FIIs have gone in to the Budget day with negative bias
My view
Given the data and chart set up, I'm not too optimistic about the reaction to Budget announcement.
Trading strategy
I would be playing this market defensively.
- Trade with low capital
- Reduce Long positions
- Take calculative short positions which would have inbuilt protection till 18250 odd levels
Trust you would find the analysis and insights helpful.
Take care and play safe
Disclaimer
- The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
Nifty: Wait for clarity to emerge before directional trade Nifty
On 29 Dec expiry day, I had suggested a Long trade which was squared off once Nifty touched 21 day EMA. It's there in the timeline.
Now, we are looking at Daily candlestick chart pattern
1. Nifty yo-yoing between 21 day EMA (Currently around 18252) and 63 day EMA ( around 18083)
2. Given breakdown below the blue trend line and now retesting it
3. Resistance area blue line and 21 day EMA
4. 63 day EMA and yellow horizontal zone providing support for time being
5. No clear direction in Nifty as of now...
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Trigger points that can give direction
- Result season to begin soon
- Budget expectations to be built in
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We have a non directional trade still active which is in profits of roughly 76 points as of now. We continue to hold it and look to adjust in case we sense a direction emerging.
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In case of a Breakout we are looking at 18720 odd levels as our target level
in case of a breakdown we are looking at a possibility of roughly 17294 odd levels.
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PLs note: Logic behind using 21 day EMA and 63 day EMA instead of standard 20 day EMA and 50 day EMA
- In a month we have 30 days.
- barring Saturday / Sunday we have roughly 22 days
- 1 holiday session factored in per month
- That gives us 21 trading sessions in a month
- Multiply by 3 months we get 63 days
For me, this represents 1 month and 3 month average trade more precisely, than standard 20 day EMA and 50 day EMA. You are free to follow your own instincts and what works best for you...!!!
Trust you find this useful.
Take care & happy trading...!!!
Disclaimer
- The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- I have been wrong in the past and can be wrong again in future too
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
Asian Paints: How to play a channelAsian Paints
The Chart set up
- Since Oct 2022 the stock has been trading in a channel
- chart is not strong but with crude prices stabilizing at lower side it favors the sector as oil is one of the major raw material.
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Trading plan
One way to trade this is : Wait for the stock to give a sustained breakout from the channel. Ideally a 3 day close beyond the channel limits should be good cue. Then play for the size of the channel in that direction (roughly 150-180 points in the direction of breakout can be looked as target in this case)
Second way to trade this
Play for a Non directional trade
The limits of the channel are roughly 3240-3244 on the upside and 3018-3030 on the downside
Given the set up, consider a short strangle strategy to start with.
Sell 3250 Call and
Sell 3000 Put
In case stock moves out of range, have a plan to Adjust your strategy to a directional one.
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Understanding reward potential and risk profile
In scenario 2:
The Strike Price chosen covers the known risk (Channel limits)
It provides a profit potential of approximately 13400 per strategy lot (approximately 11.5% ROI on margin requirement). Take advantage of time decay in case the stock stays within the range.
In addition, there is in built protection against loss for a fall up to 2933 on the downside and 3317 on the upside till 25 Jan 2023 expiry day.
This should give ample scope to adjust strategy in case stock moves out of range.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Do let me know if you find the analysis and insights helpful.
To trade with me Like and Follow for more trading ideas like these...!!!
Take care & safe trading...!!!
Disclaimer
- The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- I have been wrong in the past and can be wrong again in future too
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
Asian Paints: Is the colour fading...!!!Asian Paints
CMP 3158
63 day EMA is at 3179
21 day EMA at 3158
Stock is struggling to sustain above 63 day EMA
Given the set up one may consider to sell Asian Paints Dec expiry 3200 Call option currently around 52
SL / Exit if closing in Spot is above 3226
Take care & safe trading...!!!
Like and share
Disclaimer
- The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- I have been wrong in the past and can be wrong again in future too
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
Nifty: 18350-18400 crucial zone to watch out forNifty
The level of 18350-18400 has acted as crucial resistance in the past
Immediate Support at 18258 odd levels
High risk traders may consider buying Nifty 17 Nov expiry 18300 Put option between 58-66 (CMP 62.50)
Target 84 / 96 / 102
SL 51.50
Disclaimer
- The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
SBIN: Chart analysis, view and trading strategySBIN
We are looking at weekly chart of SBIN stock
Observations
- SBIN is yet to give a weekly closing above the Sept 12 - Sept 19 weekly high
- support at 554 / 545 / 530 zone
Given the set up
One can wait for SBIN to close and sustain above 579 on a weekly closing basis or for at least 3 days before taking for fresh long position
Otherwise 530-540 zone could be a better place to enter
Derivatives Strategy
One may consider a Bear Call Spread strategy in SBIN for November series
Sell 600 Call option
Buy 630 Call option
Net receivables 6 points
Lot size 1500
Max Profit Potential of Rs 9000 per strategy lot till 24 Nov 2022
Profit potential of 12.5% approximately on Margin requirement
Take care & safe trading...!!!
Like, follow, share for more trading ideas like these
Disclaimer
-The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- I have been wrong in the past and can be wrong again in future too
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
Nifty: Is Nifty Feeling the October heat near resistance zone?Nifty
- We are looking at daily candlestick chart
Observations
- On 16 Sept Nifty opened gap down between 17877 to 17796
- coincidently Nifty 76.4% retracement level is also around same level 17777
- for 4 consecutive days Nifty is struggling at 17800 levels
- With 1 hour's trade to go today volume is on a lesser side
Given the conditions, fresh longs in Nifty can be avoided.
Have bought a few Put options for 24 November expiry.
Review points for me - View gets invalidated if Nifty trades above 17880
Please follow your risk management measures
Take care & safe trading...!!!
Disclaimer
-The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- I have been wrong in the past and can be wrong again in future too
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
Ambuja Cement: Chart set up, view and trade potential Ambuja cement
We are looking at weekly chart of Ambuja Cement
- weekly closing high 539.35
- low made thereafter 471.05
The stock has possibly done its short term target on the upside (Jitna neeche utna ooper)
View: Rangebound
Given the set up one may consider a Bear Call Spread strategy
Sell 560 Call option currently around 8.3
Buy 600 Call option currently around 3.1
Lot size 1800
Net receivables Rs 9360 per strategy lot
Margin requirement approximately 91K
Profit potential approximately 10.25% on Margin till 24 Nov 2022.
Protection for a rise up to 565.2 till 24 Nov expiry.
Review point for me, If weekly close is above 544. It gives ample scope to adjust / exit in case stock behaves in a different way. Do follow your risk management measures
Take care & safe trading...!!!
Like and follow for more trading ideas like this
Disclaimer
-The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- I have been wrong in the past and can be wrong again in future too
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
ICICI Bank: Chart set up and trading strategyICICI Bank
We are looking at daily candlestick chart pattern
Observations
- ICICI Bank chart reflects it made a gravestone doji on September 15, 2022 (indicates previous buyers were happy to sell at 936 odd levels)
- subsequently we saw profit booking in the stock
- now the stock is back at 920-940 odd levels
- we see ICICI Bank still not making a decisive move above the September 15 high
View going forward
- so far as ICICI Bank is below 945 odd levels we might see ICICI Bank rangebound
- support at 868 / 844
Given the set up one may consider a Bear Call Spread strategy in ICICI Bank
Sell 960 Call option currently around 12
Buy 1000 Call option currently around 4
Net receivables 8 points
Lot size 1375
Net profit potential Rs 11000 per strategy lot
Margin requirement - approximately 93500
Yield Potential - 11.75% approximately
Review point for me: If ICICI Bank closing is above 943.
It gives ample scope to adjust / exit in case stock moves otherwise. Pls follow your Risk management measures.
Take care & safe trading...!!!
Like and follow for more trading ideas like these
Disclaimer
- The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- I have been wrong in the past and can be wrong again in future too
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
Ambuja Cement: Chart set up and trade potentialAmbuja Cement
- After a big euphoric rally the stock seems to be consolidating now in the yellow channel box
21 day EMA is around 500
53 day EMA is around 464 and rising by around 1 point
My trading strategy is for a range bound market scenario.
Giving a profit potential of 11% till expiry as well as keeping loss limited
For details Like and message me
Take care & safe trading...!!!
Disclaimer
-The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- I have been wrong in the past and can be wrong again in future too
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
Nifty: Chart set up for November series and trading strategyNifty
- we see Nifty trading above 21 day EMA, 63 day EMA and well above 252 day EMA
- Line of resistance around 18200 odd levels
- Line of Support around 16800
- So is the 200 day EMA support around 16780
Right now we are in the middle of the range
Trading strategy
Given the set up one may consider a Short Strangle strategy for Nifty for November series
Sell 18300 Call option currently around 93
Sell 16500 Put option currently around 79
Net receivables 172 points. Yield potential of approximately 9% on Margin deployed in strategy till 24 Nov 2022.
Loss in strategy if Nifty closes above 18472 or below 16328 on 24 November.
Review points for me, 18030 on the upside and 16800 on the lower side. This would give ample time to exit / adjust in case need be. You decide on your Risk Management part.
Take care & safe trading...!!!
Do Like and Follow for more such trading ideas!
Disclaimer
- The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- I have been wrong in the past and can be wrong again in future too
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be