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7th Dec ’23 - tomorrow's RBI meet- more liquidity drain ???BankNifty Analysis The opening candle was very similar to the Nifty’s. The low set in the opening minutes ended up as the low of the day. In a way, it shows the bulls are still in control. The pattern was quite similar to yesterday. Weak open and then range-bound trade. 4mts chart link - click here Banks will be on their toes tomorrow huffing and puffing to the RBI Governor’s announcement. I feel he will bring in some measures to cut down the liquidity. The 2 last attempts by varying the iCRR and CAR did not go that well. Bank stocks reacted pretty badly but recovered and hit new highs. Paytm fell 20% today when it said it might cut back on small value loans ~ Rs50000. I guess this impact came from the hike in CAR weightage from the last meeting. 63mts chart link - click here I guess there is no clue from the chart here, will have to spend the time in front of the TV tomorrow to hear from the RBI governor directly. Since I am already neutral on BankNifty, my level to go short for tomorrow will be 46341.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
2nd Nov ’23 - When NEWS flows, technical analysis goes for spinNifty Weekly Expiry Analysis Between the last expiry and today, Nifty has accumulated 299pts ~ 1.59% points. Most importantly it has broken away from the crucial support of 18880. As it stands Nifty is below the resistance of 19310 - but with the momentum it has gathered, seems like it will get tested this weekly series. Nifty Today’s Analysis Recap from yesterday: “Check out the daily time frame, does that not look bearish to you? Since we had a red candle today also, it seems like the bearish momentum could build up pretty quickly. We have the FOMC interest rate decision at 23.30 today and US FED comments may spook or lift the markets. Definitely, that will spill over to our markets tomorrow. As of now, SPX is in green trading with gains of 0.53%. Until 18880 is not broken, I wish to maintain my neutral stance.” Nifty opens today with a gap up of 138pts ~ 0.73%, rallies to 19175 by 09.40. This was totally sponsored by the FED with its FOMC decision & the commentary that followed. Markets in the US got the feeling that this was going to be the last of the hikes and were overjoyed. We need to get some background on this topic to understand the real impact. Even if the FED says no more hikes, it doesnt mean the rate cuts will begin soon. If the rates are held at this 5.25 to 5.5% for longer - there is nothing bearish like that. So the reaction that is seen now could just be a temporary phenomenon. The longer FED keeps the rates high - the higher the money that will get sucked out of equity. Also, watch the small and medium-scale businesses - they are the first to go under when the cost of borrowing stays high. No, I am not spoiling the bullish party - I am just being practical. Coming back to India, RBI cannot cut rates when the US holds its line. If we do, more money will flow out from India, further depreciating INR. If RBI also holds the rate at this level long enough - our SME universe will also be impacted. On the 1hr TF, Nifty has formed an island today. The 3rd hourly candle was quite RED - but the fall was arrested soon enough. The levels have not changed from yesterday, the first resistance is at 19226 and the 2nd one is at 19310. I am staying neutral till 19226 is not taken out, seems like it could be even done in the forenoon session. Visit my tradingview minds section, for updates during trading hours tomorrow.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
EURUSD has more downside room amid pre-Fed USD strengthEURUSD dribbles around a monthly low after breaking the six-week-old horizontal support. That said, the downward sloping RSI (14) line, not oversold, joins bearish MACD signals to also hint at the major currency pair’s further downside. With this, the sellers brace for the yearly low surrounding 1.0350. However, the RSI line and nearness to the Fed may restrict the quote’s downside below the same, if not then the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of late March-May moves, around 1.0270, will gain the market’s attention. On the contrary, corrective pullback needs to sustain beyond the immediate support-turned-resistance, around 1.0460-70, to convince short-term EURUSD buyers. Following that, the 20-DMA level near 1.0650 will precede the monthly top of 1.0773 to challenge the pair’s further upside. It’s worth noting that May’s top near 1.0790 acts as a validation point for the quote’s run-up towards late April swing high near 1.0935. Overall, broad US dollar strength ahead of the Fed’s widely anticipated rate hike keeps EURUSD pressured towards refreshing the yearly low marked in May.
by MTradingGlobal
NZDUSD drops back towards 0.6900 despite RBNZ rate hikeRBNZ leads the developed-world central banks with a 0.25% rate hike on Wednesday but couldn’t lift the NZDUSD prices. The reason can be linked to the broad US dollar strength amid risk-off mood and firmer Treasury yields. Technically, the Kiwi pair’s failures to cross the 10-DMA hurdle joined the bearish MACD signals and downward sloping RSI line to weigh on the quote. However, a horizontal area established from mid-June near 0.6915-25, becomes the key barrier for the pair’s further downside towards an ascending support line from August 20, around 0.6870. Also acting as a support is the latest swing low close to 0.6860 that can question the sellers before offering the yearly bottom of 0.6805. On the contrary, a clear upside break of the 10-DMA, at 0.6857 by the press time, won’t be enough for the NZDUSD bull’s welcome as a three-week-old resistance line near 0.7015 holds the gate for entry. In a case where the pair cross the trend line resistance, the 0.7080-85 region comprising multiple levels marked since late July may act as a buffer before propelling the quote to the last month’s high near 0.7170.
Short
by MTradingGlobal