Reliance Industries: Opportunity in a Demand Zone ConfluenceReliance Industries Limited (RIL), one of India’s largest conglomerates, has recently experienced a drop in its share price. In the second quarter of FY25, the company reported a 5% decline in consolidated net profit, down to Rs 16,563 crore. While this has weighed on the stock price, it also presents a buying opportunity for traders.
Chart Analysis: A Confluence of Demand Zones
Let’s take a closer look at the technical picture. If you analyze the weekly chart of Reliance Industries, you’ll notice that the stock is currently trading in a demand zone . This zone is an area on the chart where there is strong buying interest, and it could potentially support the price, leading to a bounce.
What makes this setup more attractive is that the stock is also sitting in a daily demand zone , creating a confluence between the two timeframes. Confluences like this increase the probability of a successful trade since multiple factors align in the same direction.
Entry 1: Reversal Candlestick Pattern at the First Demand Zone
The first potential entry point for a trade comes from the RBR (Rally-Base-Rally) zone , which is the current demand zone on the weekly chart. If you observe a reversal candlestick pattern , this could signal the start of a move higher.
Wait for a confirmation of the reversal pattern before entering the trade. This pattern could serve as a signal that the market is ready to rally from the current demand zone. Let’s call this Entry 1 .
Entry 2: The Second Demand Zone - A Stronger Opportunity
If the price continues to drop, there’s a second RBR demand zone below the current one, and this could provide an even better buying opportunity. What makes this zone particularly strong is that it coincides with a previous resistance level, which could now act as support again .
This is known as the Act of Polarity , where old resistance becomes new support & this is also confluence. Entry 2 is compelling because the stock had previously been in a tight consolidation, and this demand zone formed as the price broke out of that consolidation. Now, as the price approaches this zone again, it’s a high-probability area for a bounce.
For Entry 2, you can place a stop-loss just below the demand zone, allowing a small buffer. This will protect your trade if the price falls further. Your first target could be the daily supply zone around 2928.
Despite recent setbacks, Reliance remains one of the strongest companies in India, with diversified business interests across sectors like telecom, retail, and energy. The current pullback is more of a short-term correction rather than a sign of fundamental weakness.
The confluence of demand zones on the weekly and daily charts offers traders a high-probability setup in Reliance Industries. While waiting for a reversal candlestick pattern at the first demand zone is a more conservative approach, the second demand zone presents a stronger opportunity due to confluence of its location at a previous resistance level, which now acts as support. Proper risk management with a stop-loss below the second demand zone ensures that traders are protected if the price drops further.
Lastly, thank you for your support, your likes & comments.
Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purposes and is not intended as a trading or investment recommendation. I am not a SEBI registered analyst.
RBR
Force Motors: A Technical and Fundamental Play in Demand ZoneWelcome traders! Today, we're diving deep into Force Motors, a stock currently sitting in a significant demand zone. Let’s break down the technical and fundamental aspects that make this stock an interesting opportunity.
Monthly and Weekly Demand Zones:
When we look at the monthly chart , Force Motors is currently trading in a strong Rally Base Rally (RBR) demand zone . This zone is a crucial area where price often finds support and can lead to a bounce back.
If we zoom into the weekly chart , we notice that the price has already reacted from a weekly RBR demand zone nested inside the monthly zone. Last week’s candle formation is notable because it’s an absorption candle , indicating that the selling pressure has been taken over by buyers.
📊 Volume Analysis:
The presence of large green volume bars compared to smaller red bars further suggests that the selling is minimal, showing a clear sign of strength.
The price is currently in a healthy pullback from its all-time high, which often provides a great buying opportunity for savvy traders.
🧠 Fundamental Strength: A Company on the Rise 💪
Force Motors is not just looking good technically; its fundamentals are also rock solid. The company's Piotroski F-score is 9, indicating strong financial health. This score assesses several financial criteria, including profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency, confirming that the company is fundamentally sound.
Recent quarterly (June 2024) numbers are impressive:
Net Sales: Rs 1,884.90 crore in June 2024, up 26.71% from June 2023.
Net Profit: Rs. 115.70 crore in June 2024, up 68.76% from June 2023.
EBITDA: Rs. 264.13 crore, up 37.52% from June 2023.
EPS: Increased to Rs. 87.81 from Rs. 52.04 in June 2023.
These numbers reflect not just growth but also consistent performance. Such fundamentals often provide a safety net for technical setups, adding an extra layer of confidence.
🔍 Institutional Interest: The Big Players Are Watching 👀
We always like to see where institutional money is flowing because it often moves the market. For Force Motors, the institutional investment data is promising:
FII/FPI holdings have increased from 6.34% to 7.78% in the June 2024 quarter.
Number of FII/FPI investors rose from 124 to 160.
Institutional Investors’ holdings jumped from 7.20% to 8.80%.
This surge in institutional interest tells us that the big players are finding value in Force Motors at these levels. Their buying can lead to further price appreciation as they tend to have a long-term view.
The current price is trading in area where institutions have increased their stakes most probably, indicating that these monthly and weekly demand zones are genuine footprints of smart money. This means we are aligning our trades with institutional players. The likelihood of the price falling from this area is quite low because institutions typically protect their positions. These demand zones suggest that there may be pending or unfilled buy orders from smart money, so entering a trade here means we are trading alongside these big players.
💡 Trade Setup: A Clear Plan for Traders 🗺️
Based on the technical and fundamental analysis, here’s a potential trade setup:
Entry: You can consider buying at the current price level, which is within the strong demand zone.
Stop Loss: Place your SL below the demand zone or, if you don't want to take big risk, just keep SL below last week’s candle low with a buffer.
Target: Aim for at least a 1:2 risk-reward ratio. You can ride the rally by trailing your stop-loss, ensuring you lock in gains as the stock moves in your favor
⚠️ A Word of Caution: Always Manage Your Risk
Trading is about probabilities, not certainties. Even the best setups can fail, so always manage your risk. This analysis is for educational purposes only. I'm not a SEBI registered analyst, and you should do your own research before making any trading decisions.
🔥 Keep Trading and Keep Growing! 📈💪
"Success in trading is not about being right, but about managing your risk and emotions." 💡
Thank you for your support, likes, and comments. Feel free to ask any questions! Your interaction keeps me motivated to share more valuable insights.
Happy trading, and may the markets be ever in your favor! 🎯🚀
IRCTC Long Trade OpportunityIRCTC stock is in a strong Uptrend & forming new highs.
There is a Rally-Base-Rally Demand Zone formation around 1045.
If the stock retraces to the demand zone , it will offer a good opportunity to go long and join the uptrend.
Stop Loss to be placed slightly below the demand zone, preferably on a candle closing basis.
First target will be the immediate swing high , where one can book partial profits & trail the rest for bigger gains.
Unlocking Potential: A Deep Dive into Elecon Engineering's ChartWelcome to today's analysis of NSE:ELECON , where we explore a compelling trading scenario fuelled by recent stock activities.
📊 The Breakout Story
Elecon Engineering hit a record high in its previous Friday trading session, breaking past its former resistance with impressive volume. The surge was marked by a robust breakout candle, signalling strong buyer interest.
Following this significant high, the stock opened the today with a sizeable gap up. Interestingly, the subsequent movement saw the stock retrace downwards on notably lower volumes. This behavior is typically indicative of a 'retest' of the breakout level.
The retest scenario presents a potential buying opportunity at a specific demand zone identified on the 15-minute timeframe. This strategy focuses on the Rally-Base-Rally pattern, suggesting a tactical entry around 1130.
📈 Strategic Trade Setup
Entry Point: The proposed entry is at the Rally-Base-Rally demand zone, calculated around the 1130 level.
Stop Loss: A stop loss is advised at a 3% decrease from the entry point to limit potential downside.
Profit Target: The initial target for taking profits is set at a 10% gain from the entry level, offering a risk-reward ratio of over 1:3.
Management Strategy: To maximize gains, a trailing stop loss is recommended, which allows profits to run while safeguarding against sudden downturns.
📉 Recent Financial Highlights
Elecon Engineering has recently announced its consolidated financial results for the quarter ending March 2024:
Net Sales: Rs. 564.62 crore, a surge of 32.99% compared to Rs. 424.54 crore in March 2023.
Net Profit: Rs. 103.65 crore, up 52.55% from Rs. 67.95 crore in the same quarter last year.
EBITDA: Rs. 148.40 crore, reflecting a growth of 47.43% from Rs. 100.66 crore in March 2023.
These financial metrics not only reflect a robust growth trajectory but also bolster the stock’s attractiveness in the eyes of potential investors and traders.
Lastly, Thank you for your support, your likes & comments. Feel free to ask if you have questions.
🌟 “Every day is a new opportunity to reach that goal.” 🌟
This analysis is purely for educational purposes and does not constitute a trading or investment recommendation. Please note that I am not a SEBI registered analyst.
🎯 Unveil the power of Demand Zones with ACE! Catch the wave📊 Fundamental Key Points:
Action Construction Equipment Ltd engages in manufacturing and marketing hydraulic mobile cranes, tower cranes, construction equipment, and agricultural machinery. The company offers a diverse product portfolio to meet various customer requirements.
Financials: Market Cap ₹17,094 Cr, Current Price ₹1,428, Stock P/E 61.7, ROCE 26.2%, ROE 18.8%.
Pros: Debt-free status, expected good quarterly performance, consistent profit growth of 24.9% CAGR over 5 years, improved debtor days.
Cons: Trading at 16.4 times its book value, decrease in promoter holding over the past 3 years.
Peer Comparison: Compared to peers in the Capital Goods sector, ACE shows favorable metrics like ROCE at 26.17% and solid profit growth.
Quarterly Results: Dec 2023: Net Profit ₹88 Cr, EPS ₹7.41, reflecting positive growth trends over the quarters.
Balance Sheet: Shows steady growth in assets over the years, with a well-managed debt profile.
Shareholding Pattern: Promoters hold majority stake, with FIIs and DIIs showing consistent interest over time.
*️⃣ Understanding the Basics - Technical Analysis
First, let's break down some key terms you'll encounter in this analysis:
RBR Zones (Rally Base Rally): This pattern signifies an upward price movement, followed by a period of consolidation (stabilization without significant price changes), before another upward movement occurs.
Demand Zone: A price area where buyers tend to enter the market, causing the price to increase.
Bullish Pin Bar Candle: A type of candlestick that indicates a potential reversal of a downward trend to an upward trend.
📈 In-Depth Analysis of ACE
ACE is currently trading in a very significant area, known as a Demand Zone. This zone is not just any area on the chart; it's a powerful RBR Zone formed on both the daily and weekly charts. Here’s why this is crucial:
The formation of the RBR zone was followed by the price reaching all-time highs accompanied by high volume, showing strong buying interest.
Currently, the price has retraced back to this zone, accompanied by low volume, which could mean a potential reversal or continuation of the upward trend.
Yesterday's price action closed with a Bullish Pin Bar Candle right at the Demand Zone, which often signals a turning point.
💹 Key Trading Strategy
For those looking to trade ACE, here’s a straightforward approach:
Entry Point: Current Market Price (CMP) at 1428.
Stop Loss (SL): Below 1340, to protect against unexpected downward movements.
First Target: Aim for 1600 as an initial profit target.
Risk Management: Consider trailing your stop loss to lock in profits as the price moves favorably.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only. I am not a SEBI registered analyst. Please do your own research or consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Concluding Thoughts
Thank you for your engagement and feedback. Remember, trading is a journey of continuous learning and application. Feel free to ask questions or share your thoughts on this analysis!
"In trading, as in life, the risk you take is a measure of the success you seek. 🚀"