RELIANCE
18 Jul ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty - Reliance's impact on nifty50?Nifty50 had a surprising comeback today, we opened gap up and then there was a strong rally till 11.05 where we set a new all time high of 19819.45. From 11.05 to 12.05 we had a decent fall of 129pts ~ 0.65%.
Surprisingly the falling stopped right there and we bounced back quite strong. NiftyIT took part in the rally post 13.30 which helped Nifty stay green. BankNifty was not that supportive though (we will discuss in detail below).
Today’s price action shows someone will come up to support nifty in its pursuit, if the banks fail, IT supports. If IT underperforms then RELIANCE or ITC will support. The last 800pts rally would have really sucked the soul out of the bears. No matter what they do, they cannot push down the prices.
I was waiting for Nifty to fall below the 19600 to go short, I did not want to go long because I was scared of heights 🙂. How Reliance demerger will plan out on 19th July is another question. The current stock value of Reliance is considered as the sum of reliance + jio financials. On 19th both the entities will be delisted and on 20th only reliance will be relisted. So whatever price difference between the closing price of 19th and pre open price of 20th is considered the share price & percentage of Jio financials.
In an ideal case Nifty50 index should take a big hit - I am yet to find out how they are hard coding to prevent this from happening. Thats because Jio Financials as a separate entity is not eligible to be part of Nifty50 & Reliance will have a reduced market cap & pricing which should create outflows.
The hourly chart is looking bullish and no worries so far. I am so inclined to be a contrarian and take a short position near the 19600 levels, not because I am bearish but because I am so shocked to see this rally. Believe a profit booking is overdue.
17 Jul '23 Post Mortem on Nifty 130pts up after 11.25Remember how we closed on Friday? — up 110pts in 30mts. I seriously thought we would be seeing some profit booking today. So I carefully watched the opening price levels and exited my long position by 11.10.
All the trading indicators, technicals were saying more bullishness for nifty50. Even the options flow indicated the same. At 11.10 Nifty was looking bullish & banknifty was showing only sideways movement.
2 major global news hit the market
China’s lower GDP
Russia not extending the Ukraine grain deal
On a normal day, similar news could paint the markets in red & I did not want to take a risk, that is why I sold off the long position by 11.10 and waited on the sidelines.
It turned out to be a disaster, nifty went up another 129pts ensuring my position would have returned 750% returns if I hung on. The rally was kick started by Reliance & then HDFCBK joined the party with impressive Q1 results.
The chart, moving averages & other technical indicators are all showing immense bullishness now also. However I wish to stay out of this party for this expiry week.
Reliance - Classic morning star pattern formationReliance Industries Ltd is trading in a price range of 2200 - 2800 since Sep 2021.
In between this a strong support and resistance formed where 2200 act as a support and 2800 as a resistance.
Last week a bullish candlestick pattern formed in Reliance called Classic Morning Star at support level.
Here are the characteristics of a classic Morning Star pattern:
1. The first candle is a long bearish candlestick, indicating that the bears are in control of the market.
2. The second candle is a short candlestick that gaps down from the previous day's close. This candlestick is also known as a "Doji" and represents indecision in the market.
3. The third candle is a long bullish candlestick that gaps up from the previous day's close. This candlestick represents a shift in momentum from the bears to the bulls.
Morning star candlestick with inverted hammer at support level indicating a lot more.
Reliance Price Volume analysisReliance on Daily time frame broke down important support level and gave a weak closing on 15th March, although there are some more supports placed below but if I look at current price vs volume relationship and whatever my understanding and view is that even though the volumes were on higher side today in comparison to last two day's session, the price couldn't broke Previous day low in today's session. This is probably a sign of good accumulation by strong hands and getting weaker hands out of the market probably.
As they say operators buy in red candles and sell in green candles or basically sell in strength and buy in weakness is the theory they apply :)
I will be keeping a watch here to understand whether this was really a climax candle in selling or not.
Reliance Industries Fresh BreakoutNSE:RELIANCE has given a fresh breakout and looks good for accumulation. A stop loss around 2735 looks good. It is a double trendline breakout. A lot of news around reliance these days, keep on radar and one can go long on this one. Will pull Nifty up along with this move.
RELIANCE - Ichimoku BreakoutStock Name - Reliance Industries Limited
Ichimoku Cloud Setup :
1). Today's close is above the Conversion Line
2). Future Kumo is Turning Bullish
3). Chikou span is slanting upwards
All these parameters are showing bullishness at Current Market Price
and more bullishness AFTER crossing 2622
#This is not Buy and Sell recommendation to any one. This is for education purpose and a helping hand to learn trading in Market.
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Reliance case studyReliance spot cmp 2618
weekly time frame
chart pattern study
Descending parallel channel pattern fromation
As per resistance trend line of structure, counter would face resistance around 2650 levels
if we observe last 2 swing in this channel ,last time counter reversed after retracing around 78.6% of previous swing, this time 78.6% of last swing lies around 2632 levels,
RSI when ever weekly RSI touches levels of 60-61 it tends to make top and give sharp reversal.
So as per this we can say the uptrend for counter that started around 2200 levels is about to end and as per past 2 swing history counter can give a dip to lower levels,,
Bulls time to step out of party,, bears at door step.. keep watch...
Reliance inds- parallel channel- swingDon't be aggressive
.
if there is possibility for bullish--
entry: 2520
target-2550-2600-2640
.
If down trend starts
entry:2480
t1-2450-t2-2400
.
possibility for stoploss hunting will be there.
.
Don't trade in "no trade zone"
Trade carefully.
.
after breaking green box mentioned,
trend will be confirmed.
.
.
refer old ideas.
NMDC Long 3 reasons for a positive outlook.
1- NMDC is trying to bounce back from the Fibbo 50% level.
2- Price has given the breakout of the falling trend line and trading above the breakout level.
3- MACD has turned positive after positive diversion.
It looks suitable short term trading with favorable RR ratio.
Disclaimer - I am not a SEBI-registered technical analyst and advisor so contact your financial advisor and make a self-decision. I will not be responsible for any profit and loss