Simple Trade Setup | RELIANCE | 01-10-2021 [INTRADAY]NSE:RELIANCE
Trade Setup for Date 01-10-2021:
1) Don't Jump in to trade at the beginning of the market. Let it get settle for 15-20min first and judge the price action.
2) Everything is mentioned on the chart. I hope it is easy to understand.
3) All the levels will work as support, resistance, entry and exit w.r.t price action near that level.
4) Avoid gap up or gap down chase. Wait and trade between levels.
Please refer below chart for levels.
Hope I made it easy to understand it.
Do comment your doubt or suggestion.
Note: Trade with Strict SL. It may or may not hit all the levels. So one can book profit / loss at respsective level considering how price action works near that level.
RELIANCE
Was this a staged Closing of the Indices?NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -29-09-21
IN SUMMARY
OHLC
17,657.95
17,781.75
17,608.15
17,711.30
Close = -37.3 / -0.21%
H-L = 174 points
VIX 18.84 / +1.61%
FII DII: Data not available - likely to be negative.
SGX NIFTY @1950h - 17683 / -23 points
Likely open: Please read Insights at the end of the post.
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS - 15 M Chart
A strong gap-down of 90 points and then there was the usual bounce back to test the opening high and then a sell-off which threatened to go and breach 17600 levels but then came some active buying which resulted in the index recovering in a somewhat choppy way.
It was only after 1300h that the index rallied and crossed 17750 and then came another sell-off which brought it below 17700 and then in a dramatic manner it was closed above 17700.
The trading range was down by half than that of yesterday.
NIFTY made a lower high, but a higher low and traded within the peak of yesterday’s close and yesterday’s lows. This is a consolidation before the monthly expiry.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
NIFTY LIFTERS
NIFTY DRAGGERS
SBI
18.00
HDFC
31.00
JSW STEEL
13.00
HDFC BANK
27.00
IOC
12.00
RELIANCE
21.00
POWERGRID
10.00
ICICI BANK
16.00
SUN PHARMA
10.00
KOTAK BANK
11.00
63.00
106.00
Lifter - Draggers = -43
POSITIVES
NIFTY managed to close above 17700.
NIFTY did not breach 17600 despite selling pressure and a retest attempt on the downside was made on multiple occasions.
NEGATIVES
When all the heavyweights go against the upward trend, there is going to be negativity and that is what spooked the indices.
All key drivers were not in the mood to rise today and profit booking and or sell-off seems to have taken place ahead of expiry.
VIX keeps rising indicating more wild moves.
TRADING RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK:
This remains as it is --
NIFTY 17500-18100
BANK NIFTY 37200-38500-800.
INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS
As NIFTY was approaching its P Close at 17748, 17600 CE in which I was trading, also approached its P Close at 180. This is a rare coincidence that I have seen. Usually, Options tend to decay even during the day and here, 17600 CE remained intact despite a choppy AM session where the Index attempted to retest 17600 levels a couple of times and then showed weakness until about 1300h.
However, on a closing basis, there is some variation in the NIFTY and the ITM CE deviation from the P Close. THis may be on account of the weighted average close.
In my view, today’s close was staged as NIFTY topped out just around the closing highs of yesterday and from there it sold off to ensure that it ends below the P Close but above 17700.
Despite FTSE up by 60 points, NIFTY ended in the red. This is surprising. Though FTSE and NIFTY cannot be compared but NIFTY should have ideally followed the cue and closed positive, but instead, it ended red and at 1925h, the SGX is showing -73 even when the US markets are in the green.
Clearly, there is something that is beyond the ordinary eyes to see - i am carrying forward 17600 CE keeping global cues in mind and I could be completely wrong here but I going by what I believe is a mismatch.
What do you feel about this?
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
29-09-21
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
---
Reliance - Breakout (Sleeping Giant awakes for next rally)Reliance Industries NSE:RELIANCE breakout in upper side. Hoping for good move. Looking good for a swing trade. I have mentioned all the targets and stop loss in the above chart. Comment your views ... Trade safely . Thanks for your support.....
Indices in panic mode - A notorious Shake Out of Weak Bulls?NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -28-09-21
IN SUMMARY
O- 17,906.45
H -17,912.85
L- 17,576.10
C- 17,748.60
Close = -106.5 / -0.60%
H-L = 337 points
VIX 18.54 / +2.71%
FII DII: Data not available - likely to be negative by 1000 Crores.
SGX NIFTY @1940h - 17730 / -14 points
Likely open: Flat to mild nrgative.
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS - 15 M Chart
A mild gap-up opening went sideways for a while and then began sell-off so severe that NIFTY broke 17600 levels as well and at one point appeared that even 17600 may be hard to sustain.
But then came a strong bounce back, however, NIFTY is still more than 100 points away from the P Close and below 17750.
NIFTY has thus made lower highs and much lower low which is not a good sign. 17600 is no longer a safe level to bank upon.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
NIFTY LIFTERS
NIFTY DRAGGERS
RELIANCE
15.00
BAJAJ FINANCE
26.00
IOC
7.00
INFOSYS
23.00
TITAN
6.00
ICICI BANK
15.00
KOTAK BANK
6.00
BAJAJ FINSERV
13.00
JSW STEEL
5.00
TCS
11.00
39.00
88.00
Lifter - Draggers = -49
POSITIVES
NIFTY and BANK NIFTY both witnessed a strong bounce back from their day lows.
RELIANCE and KOTAK BANK withstood the intense selling pressure and ended in the green and were mainly responsible for the fast-paced recovery in the indices.
NEGATIVES
NIFTY broke 17600 levels on intraday basis.
17920 also appears to be a level to reckon with.
BANK NIFTY gave up higher levels very easily and also ended below 38000.
TRADING RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK:
As mentioned in yesterday’s post, the range mentioned here proved to be the one that was respected as far as the Support levels are concerned.
NIFTY 17500-18100
BANK NIFTY 37200-38500-800.
INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS
The intense sell-off was caused by the spike in VIX over the last few sessions even as the indices were making new highs. Usually, VIX should turn negative near or around ATH but in our case, it has risen 40%+ from the lower levels. This is not a good sign.
A wild swing was expected this week and that is exactly what happened today. Pre-Covid, Expiry Tuesdays used to be highly choppy and volatile, today was one such Tuesday.
BANK NIFTY High to Low was 1082 points! This is what caused the panic all around.
KOTAK BANK and RELIANCE stood rock solid and yet again proved that they have the tendency to not to follow the market and behave in their own manner.
It may be a good idea to always have a position in these two scrips as these seem to be hedging devices against wild swings in the indices.
What do you feel about this?
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
28-09-21
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
---
INFOSYS drags NIFTY while BANK NIFTY hits new ATHNIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -27-09-21
IN SUMMARY
O / H / L / C
17932.2 / 17943.5 / 17,802.90 / 17,855.10
H-L = 141 points
VIX 18.05 / +6.68%
FII DII: +803 Crores
SGX NIFTY @1917H - 17825 / -30 points
Likely open: Flat to mild positive. 17850-900 is the next hurdle.
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS - 15 M Chart
A gap-up opening was held for a while but NIFTY failed to even retest the ATH hit on last Friday and then gradually sold off led by INFOSYS and TCS.
It then never retested 17900 levels as the selling pressure was intense amidst increasing VIX.
NIFTY made a lower high and a lower low.
NIFTY ended the day flat.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
NIFTY LIFTERS
NIFTY DRAGGERS
RELIANCE
6.00
INFOSYS
6.00
HDFC BANK
4.00
BAJAJ FINSERV
3.00
MARUTI
2.00
HCL TECH
3.00
ICICI BANK
2.00
DIVIS LABS
2.00
TATA MOTORS
2.00
TCS
1.00
16.00
15.00
Lifter - Draggers = +1
POSITIVES
NIFTY held 17850 levels on a closing basis and 17800 as a good support level.
MARUTI & TATAT MOTORS made a strong bounce back from the slumber - especially MARUTI. It rose 6%+.
HDFC BANK and RELIANCE consolidated moved up on a closing basis.
BANK NIFTY outperformed NIFTY and hit a new ATH and also closed at a new ATH.
NEGATIVES
A significant increase in VIX is of concern indicating likely choppiness as well as wild swings in the Indices.
INFOSYS did not recover at all during the day after the fall.
Even AXIS BANK somehow got influenced by the negative sentiment in NIFTY despite its parent index being strong.
TRADING RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK:
NIFTY 17500-18100
BANK NIFTY 37200-38500-800.
INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS
I had bought 17800 CE when NIFTY turned up after hitting P Close at 17853. The premium paid was 154. The day end was flat and the premium for the day was at 138.
17800 CE is an ITM CE at the close and was so when I bought. Despite this, I lost at least 16 points even when VIX was up by 6.68%!
This is puzzling.
MARUTI shot up by 6%+ and yet had almost zero impact on NIFTY which is surprising. I have not seen such an imbalance for a long time.
What do you feel about this?
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
27-09-21
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
---
Reliance reversal setupReliance recently rallied heavily and needed a correction . All time high has been broken and reliance is managing to sustain above all time high with also a harmonic bullish bat pattern of a minor swing and also important fib numbers of different swings . Anything above 2360 levels in RIL is a reversal.
Simple Trade Setup | RELIANCE | 27-09-2021 [INTRADAY]NSE:RELIANCE
Trade Setup for Date 27-09-2021:
1) Don't Jump in to trade at the beginning of the market. Let it get settle for 15-20min first and judge the price action.
2) Everything is mentioned on the chart. I hope it is easy to understand.
3) All the levels will work as support, resistance, entry and exit w.r.t price action near that level.
4) Avoid gap up or gap down chase. Wait and trade between levels.
Please refer below chart for levels.
Hope I made it easy to understand it.
Do comment your doubt or suggestion.
Note: Trade with Strict SL. It may or may not hit all the levels. So one can book profit / loss at respsective level considering how price action works near that level.
Stock analysis #1 Reliance Industries Reliance Industries is one of the most heavyweight and most recognize stock of nifty50. I am analyzing reliance from last 2-3 weeks and i found above patterns and each patterns perform very well. Now Reliance is in a ascending triangle also from last couple of days overall market sentiment is confusing, so trade the breakout side with proper stoploss and target.
Note-
Their is two possibilities :-
> Ascending triangle breakout
> Trendline support breakout
In first case we can go long and our target will be near 2440-50 level with a stoploss of 2400.
In second case we can make a short position for the target of 2780-70 and our stoploss is above 2410.
Swing Trading Opportunities for W/B 27-9-21TRADING WATCHLIST FOR W/B 27-9-21
INTENT
I will only be sharing the time frame and the scrip name. I will leave the trade basis aside as the intent is to engage the reader in learning the basics of finding good scrips. You can have a look at the charts and place your favorite indicators and check out if any of these fit your trade plan.
ON MY WATCHLIST FOR W/B 27-9-21 --
This is a weekly review of the available opportunities so my time frame for analysis moves from Daily to Weekly and from Hourly to Daily. Here are the likely candidates for the week -
WEEKLY TIME FRAME- FOR LONG POSITIONS
NIFTY WEEKLY CHART EOD Close 24-9-21 @ 17853.2
ACC
BLUESTAR
DHANUKA
EMAMI
FORCE MOTORS
GM BREWERIES
INOX LEISURE
PAGE IND
PGHH
PHOENIX MILLS
RAYMOND
STR TECH
UDAIPUR CEMENT
CAPRI GLOBAL
BPCL
CIPLA
ONGC
TATA STEEL
ULTRA TECH
ACCELYA
DCW
IDEA
WALCHANDNAGAR
SECTORS LOOKING GOOD FOR LONG POSITIONS-
AUTO
BANK NIFTY
MEDIA
METALS
PRIVATE BANKS
Ideally, the best candidate would be the one that features in both lists. I may / may not take these trades as not every opportunity should / can be traded.
I believe that it is better to help someone learn the technique of selecting good scrips than giving tips - in any case, I am not SEBI regd so I do not have the authority as well to do so.
In case you are able to spot the setup and the trade basis, please do share so that together we can learn.
Thank you for your time and Happy Learning,
Umesh
26-9-21
Disclaimer -- This post is shared for learning and educational purposes only and in no way acts as a recommendation. I am not a SEBI regd trader so please either decide your trades/investments on your own or consult your financial advisor before making any trades.