Stock analysis #1 Reliance Industries Reliance Industries is one of the most heavyweight and most recognize stock of nifty50. I am analyzing reliance from last 2-3 weeks and i found above patterns and each patterns perform very well. Now Reliance is in a ascending triangle also from last couple of days overall market sentiment is confusing, so trade the breakout side with proper stoploss and target.
Note-
Their is two possibilities :-
> Ascending triangle breakout
> Trendline support breakout
In first case we can go long and our target will be near 2440-50 level with a stoploss of 2400.
In second case we can make a short position for the target of 2780-70 and our stoploss is above 2410.
RELIANCE
Swing Trading Opportunities for W/B 27-9-21TRADING WATCHLIST FOR W/B 27-9-21
INTENT
I will only be sharing the time frame and the scrip name. I will leave the trade basis aside as the intent is to engage the reader in learning the basics of finding good scrips. You can have a look at the charts and place your favorite indicators and check out if any of these fit your trade plan.
ON MY WATCHLIST FOR W/B 27-9-21 --
This is a weekly review of the available opportunities so my time frame for analysis moves from Daily to Weekly and from Hourly to Daily. Here are the likely candidates for the week -
WEEKLY TIME FRAME- FOR LONG POSITIONS
NIFTY WEEKLY CHART EOD Close 24-9-21 @ 17853.2
ACC
BLUESTAR
DHANUKA
EMAMI
FORCE MOTORS
GM BREWERIES
INOX LEISURE
PAGE IND
PGHH
PHOENIX MILLS
RAYMOND
STR TECH
UDAIPUR CEMENT
CAPRI GLOBAL
BPCL
CIPLA
ONGC
TATA STEEL
ULTRA TECH
ACCELYA
DCW
IDEA
WALCHANDNAGAR
SECTORS LOOKING GOOD FOR LONG POSITIONS-
AUTO
BANK NIFTY
MEDIA
METALS
PRIVATE BANKS
Ideally, the best candidate would be the one that features in both lists. I may / may not take these trades as not every opportunity should / can be traded.
I believe that it is better to help someone learn the technique of selecting good scrips than giving tips - in any case, I am not SEBI regd so I do not have the authority as well to do so.
In case you are able to spot the setup and the trade basis, please do share so that together we can learn.
Thank you for your time and Happy Learning,
Umesh
26-9-21
Disclaimer -- This post is shared for learning and educational purposes only and in no way acts as a recommendation. I am not a SEBI regd trader so please either decide your trades/investments on your own or consult your financial advisor before making any trades.
What a strong comeback by the INDICES! NIFTY batting 17822!NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -23-09-21
IN SUMMARY
O / H / L / C
17670.85 / 17843.90 / 17646.55 / 17822.95
H-L = 86 points
VIX 16.6 / +0.67%
FII DII: +1530 Crores
SGX NIFTY at 1930h - 17853 +22 points
Likely open: Flat to mild positive. Profit booking may kick-in in the PM session.
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS - 15 M Chart
A strong gap-up open and a sustained rally that ended the day a few points above the new ATH of 17843.9.
It was after a long time that NIFTY was supported well by BANK NIFTY and other sectors as well.
NIFTY yet again ends in the proverbial uncharted territory.
The daily chart shows that today’s candle is up in the air like a rocket fired by someone.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
The Weight Lifters
RELIANCE 42
HDFC BANK 32
HDFC 30
BAJAJ FINSERV 28
ICICI BANK 19
TOTAL 151
The Draggers
HDFC LIFE 02
ITC 02
NESTLE 02
DR REDDY’S 01
BRITANNIA 01
TOTAL 08
Lifter - Draggers = +143
POSITIVES
RELIANCE chose to join hands with the HDFC twins and then what comes out was a blockbuster.
BANK NIFTY also joined the party and has gained the lost ground in a matter of just one session.
There are plenty of positives and the list would be long so I am not writing it here.
NIFTY ends on yet another ATH and for the first time close above 17800.
NEGATIVES
As a mark of respect to the bullishness and positivity shown by the markets, let me not even think of any negativity at least for today’s analysis.
TRADING RANGE FOR 24-09-21
I am not sure what to state about NIFTY levels. So I will let it settle down in the new terrain and will see where it ends the week before stating any levels.
The spike in BANK NIFTY has torn apart all the levels on the downside so will wait for the index to end the week before stating them. The resistances are obviously at 38000 and then around the ATH of 38100+.
INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS
All constituents of BANK NIFTY ended in the green.
FMCGs are known as the defensives and today when the Indices were on a roll, there was mild profit booking in the sector as HUL, ITC and BRITANNIA ended in mild red.
TATA MOTORS at one stage was up 4% and as against that MARUTI could barely move in to the 1st gear and struggled throughout the day drifting towards the P Close several times.
For the last 2 days, similar price action had happened in the HDFC twins and today we know what happened! Will MARUTI follow their example tomorrow?
RELIANCE may take its time to reach 2500 as it made an ATH of 2497 just around one of the FIB extensions.
Peak margin rules would get invoked from tomorrow morning. So for retail traders like me, as regards Stock Options are concerned, the month would be expiring tomorrow around lunch as thereafter, many retailers like me, would start exiting thereby put pressure on the downside as regards Option premia are concerned.
What do you feel about this?
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
23-09-21
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
---
Simple Trade Setup | RELIANCE | 24-09-2021 [INTRADAY]NSE:RELIANCE
Trade Setup for Date 24-09-2021:
1) Don't Jump in to trade at the beginning of the market. Let it get settle for 15-20min first and judge the price action.
2) Everything is mentioned on the chart. I hope it is easy to understand.
3) All the levels will work as support, resistance, entry and exit w.r.t price action near that level.
4) Avoid gap up or gap down chase. Wait and trade between levels.
Please refer below chart for levels.
Hope I made it easy to understand it.
Do comment your doubt or suggestion.
Note: Trade with Strict SL. It may or may not hit all the levels. So one can book profit / loss at respsective level considering how price action works near that level.
BANK NIFTY heavyweights drag NIFTY in to a Red CloseNIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -22-09-21
IN SUMMARY
O / H / L / C
17580.9 / 17610.45 / 17524 / 17546.65
H-L = 86 points
VIX 16.49 / -0.18%
FII DII: Not available till 1845h. May be flat to negative.
SGX NIFTY at 1830h - 17587 +33points
Likely open: Flat to mild positive.
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS - 15 M Chart
A mild gap-up open was immediately sold in to and then around 17530, buying stated and then the index was on a choppy ride for rest of the day.
It was a very narrow range day - 86 points only.
Late sell-off in BANK NIFTY dragged the index below P Close and ended the day just below 17550.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
The Weight Lifters
RELIANCE 20
TECH MAHINDRA 10
TATA MOTORS 08
JSW STEEL 07
HINDALCO 05
TOTAL 50
The Draggers
HDFC BANK 24
HDFC 22
ICICI BANK 18
NESTLE 08
KOTAK BANK 08
TOTAL 80
Lifter - Draggers = -30
POSITIVES
RELIANCE and MARUTI also helped NIFTY. Despite NIFTY being choppy, RELIANCE was level-headed and that saved the day for NIFTY.
17500 levels were held on for the day despite severe selling in the banks.
NIFTY made a higher high and a higher low.
NEGATIVES
BANK NIFTY easily gave up 37000 on a closing basis.
Private banks were under severe pressure.
HDFC is under serious selling pressure as every rise is sold in to.
TRADING RANGE FOR 23-09-21
17300-17350 is now restored as the support line. Resistances at 17600-30-700.
BANK NIFTY supports lines were breached so now the support line is redrawn as 36200-500. Resistances at 37000-200-500.
INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS
HDFC BANK seems to have become the punching bag today as well. I now feel that the scrip would go up only late on Friday or next week. Tomorrow is the last day for Option Buyers to exit trades in Stock Options without attracting additional margins. This is what I have been observing for some time now - I myself being one such trader.
NIFTY 17500 CE is now priced in line with the underlying. Usually, this should happen closer to the EOD on the weekly expiry day.
The range for NIFTY was quite narrow and if someone was able to make even modest gains in CE / PE long, the person is quite good at picking the levels.
BANK NIFTY and HDFC BANK charts look more or less similar on 5 minutes chart. I was trading both so I know. It was interesting to see how a scrip can move the index on its own weight.
After 1515h, I could see that there was some adjustment in the Option prices of 37100 CE as even though BANK NIFTY went down and then recovered, the corresponding premium appreciated instead of going down.
Most interestingly, even though the European markets are good green, our markets ended in the red. So will the indices play a catch-up game tomorrow?
What do you feel about this?
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
22-09-21
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
---
Levels for - 22 Sep 2021 EXPLANATION : This is a 15 Min time frame chart of RELIANCE , It has been in a consolidate for days and has formed an Ascending Triangle Pattern . If give a strong breakout and broke its supply zone with high volumes and retest the same , I am bullish on RELIANCE . If stock break the trend line we plan to short , downside levels marked in chart .
If you like this analysis of Stock give a Thumbs up // Like , let me know in comments below :)
RELIANCE INTRADAY FALLING CHANNELReliance after a big fall, is stuck in a falling price channel . Good move on either side (short or long) could be achieved after the breakout of this price channel .
Entry should be initiated if reliance gives closing of 15 mins candle breaking the channel . No entry should be taken if reliance takes support and comes back into the channel without giving closing outside the channel.
The targets for upside and downside are given in the chart and trailling stoploss should be used as we achieve our targets.
This is an intraday trade and not a swing trade .
DIIs spoil the party, Drag NIFTY from around 17800NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -17-09-21
IN SUMMARY
O / H / L / C
17709.65 / 17792.95 / 17537.65 / 17585.15
H-L = 255 points
VIX 15.23 / +5.69%
FII DII: +130 Crores
Likely open: Flat to negative. This is based on the SGX NIFTY and as the US markets close was in negative. A bounce-back is more likely as FIIs have bought in good numbers.
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS - 15 Minutes Chart
A good gap up with a retest of the opening lows was then bought in to and NIFTY almost touched 17800 but there was immediate and sharp sell-off from 1030 that led to NIFTY falling 225+ points from the day high.
After the first sell-off, it turned rangebound, but then as the market close was nearing, there was another sell-off which meant NIFTY ended below 17600.
It was indeed surprising that the level was given away so quickly.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
The Weight Lifters
KOTAK BANK 17
HDFC BANK 17
HDFC 04
BAJAJ FINSERV 03
BHARTI AIRTEL 02
TOTAL 43
The Draggers
RELIANCE 22
TCS 13
ICICI BANK 08
TATA STEEL 08
INFOSYS 07
TOTAL 58
Lifter - Draggers = -15
POSITIVES
NIFTY went very close to 17800 but failed to clear the line.
BANK NIFTY made a high above 38100.
KOTAK BANK & HDFC BANK outperformed all the other leaders.
HDFC appears to have found some support around 2800.
FIIs have bought in large numbers.
NEGATIVES
INFOSYS is suffering from 1700+ Syndrome as it is unable to hold on to the level for more than a day at a time.
RELIANCE was doing good but late afternoon sell-off brought it below 2400 yet again.
VIX has gone up to 15+ after quite a few weeks.
DIIs have sold heavily.
TRADING RANGE FOR W/B 20-09-21
17300-17350 is the new support base. For now, 17800 may well prove to be a major resistance as the fall from just below that level was sharp and severe.
BANK NIFTY support lines are 37200-400 and resistances at 38000-38200.
INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS
NIFTY was clearly hijacked by RELIANCE, TCS & INFOSYS. There was extreme volatility and fast movement in NIFTY making it a hard day for the traders.
HDFC BANK retested 1560 levels and then shot up more than 1% to close above 1580 and this along with KOTAK BANK closing above 2000 saved the day for BANK NIFTY as it ended in the green and in the process, helped NIFTY from sinking further.
Clearly, BANK NIFTY is now looking stronger than NIFTY and may well hold the key to NIFTY holding higher levels.
RELIANCE ended the day 65 points lower than the day high which is more than 2% and that is what spooked NIFTY.
SGX NIFTY is showing a gap down of almost 100 points but this is not entirely reliable as we have seen in the past. Since FIIs have bought in large numbers, a gap-down is more likely to be bought into unless there is something else that happens between 19-9 evening and the market open.
Social Media is very quick to signal that the top was made on Friday and now NIFTY is heading down. When August was in good green, it was said that September would be a washout and now when NIFTY kept scaling ATH after ATH in Sep, a fall of 44 points is being called out as end of the road.
The fact is no one really knows and there is no point doing guesswork as in a matter of 23 hours, the day would have ended and clarity would have emerged.
The best approach would be to keep all news and views aside and react to the price action by sticking to the right process that has given you success in the past.
That is what matters in the end.
What do you feel about this?
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
19-09-21
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
Simple Trade Setup | RELIANCE | 17-09-2021 [INTRADAY]NSE:RELIANCE
Observations:
1)On Daily Time frame: we can see that the retracement is over now and today it gave good bullish candle as a reversal. Now it will go continue it's bullish trend.
Please refer below chart : Daily time frame.
-------------------------------------
Trade Setup for Date 17-09-2021:
1) Don't Jump in to trade at the beginning of the market. Let it get settle for 15-20min first and judge the price action.
2) Everything is mentioned on the chart. I hope it is easy to understand.
3) All the levels will work as support, resistance, entry and exit w.r.t price action near that level.
Please refer below chart for levels.
Hope I made it easy to understand it.
Do comment your doubt or suggestion.
Note: Trade with Strict SL.
BANK NIFTY tears apart 37K, Lifts NIFTY past 17600NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -16-09-21
IN SUMMARY
O / H / L / C
17539.2 / 17644.6 / 17510.45 / 17629.5
H-L = 134 points
VIX 14.41 / +4.95%
FII DII: +826 Crores
Likely open: Flat to mild positive. All eyes would be on BANK NIFTY - whether it can hold higher levels and attain ATH as the week draws to a close.
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS - 15 Minutes Chart
A mild gap-up open was immediately sold in to and the P Close was retested but then, NIFTY never looked back though the upside move was quite choppy when compared to BANK NIFTY.
The daily chart indicates that there was a strong buying that led the rise to the levels above 17600 even though the range was somewhat less when compared to BANK NIFTY.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
The Weight Lifters
RELIANCE 47
ITC 34
ICICI BANK 24
SBI 23
HDFC BANK 15
TOTAL 143
The Draggers
TCS 15
BPCL 12
INFOSYS 09
GRASIM 05
JSW STEEL 05
TOTAL 46
Lifter - Draggers = +97
BPCL turned ex-dividend so the fall. It is best to ignore the same. Once we do that, the strong upmove is explained easily.
POSITIVES
NIFTY closed at a new ATH and also hit a new ATH.
And both are above 17600.
BANK NIFTY tore apart 37000-37200 resistance with fury and was responsible for lifting NIFTY along with RELIANCE.
BANK NIFTY ended on a new ATH and so did SBIN.
FIIs have bought in good numbers so the momentum is likely to continue in the short term.
NEGATIVES
INFOSYS keeps coming down.
HDFC made a lower close than yesterday.
VIX has gone up by almost 5%.
TRADING RANGE FOR 17-09-21
17300-17350 is the new support base. For the resistances, we will have to let a few days go by to see how and where it gets formed.
BANK NIFTY tore apart the barriers in typical style and is now facing resistance at 37800-38000-38200.
INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS
And as mentioned yesterday, the Banking giants roared and in style today to tear apart the resistance of 37000-37200 and the short covering may have fueled further upside in the index.
The fury was evident as in the AM session, even when HDFC BANK was in the red, BANK NIFTY kept rising gradually and held on to the opening low.
For the last 2-3 days I have been observing that HDFC BANK is unable to make a significant impact on the indices. I am not sure if the weight has changed or the other members of the indices group have gathered all-around support. This is a good sign as any dependency on one or two scrips is not a good sign from index strength POV.
A few days ago, I made an entry into IDEA at 7.3 and then gradually added few shares with every rise. Today cumulative ROI was seen at 43%! On a scrip that had trouble all over at that time, but my decision was very simple - MA-based.
So the next time when your process tells you to go long/short, just go ahead. Eventually, following the right process will lead you to the right outcome.
What do you feel about this?
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
16-09-21
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.