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Bitcoin (BTC): technical and fundamental analysis. Altseason.📈 Technical analysis BTC/USDT The Bitcoin price is trading within a narrowing price range, formed after an unsuccessful test of the major resistance block at $100,000, followed by a correction to the 0.23 Fibonacci retracement level and subsequent consolidation. This has resulted in the formation of a pattern known as a narrowing wedge, the breakout of which could indicate the next direction for BTC price movement. If buyers, supported by fundamental factors, manage to break through the psychological resistance level of $100,000, we can expect a strong upward momentum toward the next resistance zones at $110,000–$120,000 and a test of the global trendline resistance. Conversely, if sellers push the price below the $90,000 support block and establish themselves beneath the EMA 200 line, we anticipate a corrective move toward the 0.5–0.61 Fibonacci retracement levels. These levels coincide with Imbalance zones, where consolidations are needed to close gaps in horizontal volume levels. 📉 Bitcoin market global analysis. When does the altseason start? Bitcoin's dominance has begun a rapid decline, and we are currently witnessing an attempt to break out of a parallel price channel. If it manages to consolidate below the lower boundary of the channel, we can expect further declines in dominance, which would indicate the start of significant capital flows from Bitcoin to altcoins. What are Bitcoin's long-term growth targets? Above the current all-time high (ATH), there are no resistance levels based on historical data. Therefore, to determine growth targets, we will rely on trendlines, Fibonacci extension levels, analysis of large order block clusters in exchange order books, and, of course, indicators: Fibonacci Extension Levels: The nearest growth targets for Bitcoin are the 1.61 and 1.78 Fibonacci extension levels, which lie in the range of $104,000–$112,000. Global Trendline: The next target could be the global trendline drawn based on the peaks of the previous growth cycle. A test of this trendline might occur around the $120,000 level. RSI Analysis: The RSI indicator is currently about 18% away from its resistance trendline. Translating this to Bitcoin’s price chart, this corresponds to a range of approximately $114,000–$120,000. This is where a test of the resistance line may occur, as observed in all previous Bitcoin market cycles. 💠 Analysis of liquidity zones and levels The Fear and Greed Index remains in the Greed Zone at 76. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has grown to $3.37 billion, while the Bitcoin Dominance Index has fallen to 56.18. According to the analysis of the accumulation of large order blocks in the order books, the largest blocks are at levels 100,000 and 120,000, and the supply and demand zones are located at the following levels: 🟢 Demand zone: 80,000 - 90,000 🔴 Supply zone: 100,000 - 150,000 Levels for long positions: 90,000 - psychological support level 88,000 - large support block 60,000 - large support block Levels for short positions: 100,000 - largest resistance block 110,000 - large resistance block 120,000 - 100,000 - ascending trend line of resistance 📊 Fundamental analysis In November, Bitcoin ETFs recorded an inflow of $6.1 billion—the highest monthly figure since the instrument's launch in January. This indicates growing investor confidence in the asset while favoring the security of regulated ETFs over direct BTC purchases. Record inflows into Bitcoin ETFs could support a BTC rally above $100,000. Ethereum and Altcoin Investment Trends Investment inflows into Ethereum (ETH)-focused products reached $634 million, pushing the total for this year to over $2.2 billion, surpassing the previous record of $2 billion set in 2021. Similarly, Ripple (XRP)-based crypto funds received record-breaking investments of $95 million. This surge may be linked to preparations for ETFs on other cryptocurrencies, potentially accelerating the onset of an altseason. Regulatory and Macroeconomic Developments SEC Leadership Announcement: Tomorrow, information may emerge regarding the new chair of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), a key financial regulator overseeing the crypto market. Under current chair Gary Gensler, the SEC has intensified crypto market regulation. The appointment of a crypto-friendly commissioner could boost market sentiment and further support the start of an altseason. U.S. Labor Market Data: Labor market reports are set to be released this week, serving as a critical indicator for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. A continuation of rate cuts by the Fed would likely bolster overall growth in the cryptocurrency market. 🌐 Upcoming Events in the Global Economy We expect increased volatility in both stock and cryptocurrency markets on the following dates: ➤ 12/04, 21:45 - Speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. ➤ 12/06, 21:45 - US Unemployment Rate for November. ➤ 12/18, 21:00 - New Fed Interest Rate Decision. ➤ 12/18, 21:00 - US GDP (q/q) (Q3) ➤ 01/29/2025, 21:00 - New Fed Interest Rate Decision. 📈 Statistics of signals from our AI trading indicator: In November, the price of Bitcoin was in an upward trend. Our trading indicator, as always, warned about this in advance! And even during the flat period it gave good entry points. Thanks to the latest updates, all signals have become profitable, and built-in Anti-Flat System prevented losses from manipulative market movements. 😎 Total price movement by all signals: + 54.92% Maximum price movement: + 42.10% Average price movement: + 13.73% In addition, I would like to share the forecast of the latest Bitcoin price action by our AI, which not only indicates the direction, but also builds the trajectory of further price movement:
by TradeINEX
Bitcoin (BTC): technical and fundamental analysis📈 Technical analysis BTC/USDT The Bitcoin price has reached a new all-time high (ATH) following Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election. This price movement has fully validated the scenario outlined in our previous analysis. Now we expect a correction of the latest growth wave in the near future. Key targets for this correction could initially be the dynamic support levels at EMA 50 and EMA 200. The first 1H Imbalance zone is near EMA 50, where gaps on the horizontal volume levels need to be filled through trading consolidations. If sellers manage to push through the 70,000 support level, where the EMA 200 line also lies, we anticipate the start of a full correction of the November growth. In this scenario, the price may drop to the next 4H Imbalance zone, situated between the 0.61 and 0.78 Fibonacci retracement levels, where corrections typically conclude and a reversal occurs. For BTC to continue its upward trend, it needs to surpass the 77,000 level, which would open the path for a test of the significant resistance block at 80,000. 📉 Bitcoin market global analysis On the daily logarithmic chart, it’s crucial for Bitcoin’s price to hold above the 70,000 level with a weekly close to support continued growth. Otherwise, BTC may face a correction. This is further indicated by the beginning of a divergence on the RSI indicator, which has been in the extreme overbought zone for an extended period. What are Bitcoin’s long-term growth targets? Above the current ATH, there are no resistance levels based on historical data. To determine growth targets, we’ll rely on trend lines, Fibonacci extension levels, analysis of large order block clusters in order books, and, of course, indicators. According to the MVRV Deviation Pricing Bands indicator, the next target for Bitcoin is 85,000, where the first Fibonacci extension level of 1.23 is also located. In the 90,000 - 100,000 range lies a global trend line constructed from the peaks of Bitcoin’s previous two cycles, aligning with the 1.38 Fibonacci extension level. The highest trend line, situated between the 1.61 and 1.78 Fibonacci levels, could be tested starting from the 100,000 level. 💠 Analysis of liquidity zones and levels The Fear and Greed Index is in the Greed Zone - 75. The total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market has grown to $2,531 billion, and the Bitcoin Dominance Index has increased to 59.73. According to the analysis of the accumulation of large order blocks in the order books, the largest blocks are at levels 77,000 and 80,000, and the supply and demand zones are located at the following levels: 🟢 Demand zone: 50,000 - 70,000 🔴 Supply zone: 80,000 - 90,000 Levels for long positions: 70,000 - psychological support level 65,000 - large support block 60,000 - large support block Levels for short positions: 77,000 - large resistance block 80,000 - largest resistance block 90,000 - 100,000 - ascending trend line of resistance 📊 Fundamental analysis Bitcoin-Based Spot ETFs Set a New Record. On November 7th, Bitcoin (BTC) spot ETFs reached a new milestone, attracting $1.38 billion in a single day—the largest daily inflow since their launch in January. This record-breaking inflow was fueled by Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election, as many investors believe his re-election will positively impact the crypto industry. Another factor driving Bitcoin’s growth was the recent decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), which lowered the key interest rate by 25 basis points during its latest meeting. What Changes Are Expected in the Crypto Community After Donald Trump's Victory: - Bitcoin could become one of the strategic reserve assets of the U.S.; - Token classification systems may change, with most cryptocurrencies likely to be considered commodities rather than securities; - Crypto investors might enter the market more actively; - Banks could gain more freedom to provide services to crypto startups and interact openly with the crypto industry; - Spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) based on Solana (SOL). 🌐 Upcoming Events in the Global Economy We expect increased volatility in both stock and cryptocurrency markets on the following dates: ➤ 11/13, 4:30 PM - US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October. ➤ 11/14, 11:00 PM - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech. ➤ 11/27, 4:30 PM - GDP data (q/q) (Q3). ➤ 12/18, 9:00 PM - New Fed interest rate decision. ➤ 01/29/2025, 9:00 PM - New Fed interest rate decision. 📈 Statistics of signals from our AI trading indicator: In October 2024, the Bitcoin price continued to recover its positions, thanks to positive expectations from the US elections and further reduction in the key interest rate of the Fed. Our trading indicator, as always, warned about this in advance! And even during the flat period it gave good entry points. Thanks to the latest updates, all signals have become profitable, and built-in Anti-Flat System prevented losses from manipulative market movements. 😎 Total price movement by all signals: + 41.89% Maximum price movement: + 13.77% Average price movement: + 7.58% In addition, I would like to share the forecast of the latest Bitcoin price action by our AI, which not only indicates the direction, but also builds the trajectory of further price movement:
by TradeINEX
Bitcoin (BTC): technical and fundamental analysis📈 Technical analysis BTC/USDT Bitcoin started the new trading week with growth. After a corrective wave down to the 0.5 Fibonacci level, triggered by the escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel, BTC has managed to hold above the EMA 200 and EMA 50 lines. Today, the price is retesting the nearest resistance block at $64,000 - $65,000, and the outcome of this retest will determine the direction of BTC's next move. If the price can hold above this level, we expect an upward move towards a test of the upper boundary of the descending price channel, where Bitcoin has been trading for the past 7 months. On the other hand, if BTC fails to break through, the price could continue its correction towards the 0.78 Fibonacci level, where it would test the descending trendline support near the major support block at $56,000 - $57,000. This scenario may unfold if the conflict in the Middle East escalates. 📉 Bitcoin market global analysis On the daily logarithmic chart, Bitcoin's price has been moving within a descending price channel for 7 months. The descending wedge pattern is typically a bullish corrective figure. Holding above the 200-day moving average suggests a strong likelihood of BTC breaking out of the price channel upwards, barring any disruptive fundamental factors like the escalation of conflict in the Middle East. This breakout would pave the way for a test of the major resistance block at $70,000. If BTC can hold above this level, it is likely to surpass its current all-time high (ATH). Beyond the current ATH, there are no significant historical resistance levels. To identify growth targets, we will use trendlines, Fibonacci extension levels, and analyze clusters of large order blocks in exchange order books. The first Fibonacci extension level, 1.23, is at $80,000. In the $90,000 - $100,000 range, there's a global trendline based on the peaks of Bitcoin’s previous two cycles, along with the 1.38 Fibonacci extension level. The highest trendline, corresponding to the 1.61 - 1.78 Fibonacci levels, may be tested starting from $100,000. 💠 Analysis of liquidity zones and levels The Fear and Greed Index is in the neutral zone - 50. The total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market has grown to $2188 billion, and the Bitcoin Dominance Index has increased to 58.11. According to the analysis of the accumulation of large order blocks in the order books, the largest blocks are at levels 50,000 and 70,000, and the supply and demand zones are located at the following levels: 🟢 Demand zone: 50,000 - 60,000 🔴 Supply zone: 70,000 - 80,000 Levels for long positions: 60,000 - large support block 57,000 - support trend line 52,000 - large support block Levels for short positions: 65,000 - large resistance block 65,000 - downward resistance trend line 70,000 - large resistance block 80,000 - large resistance block 📊 Fundamental analysis Bitcoin started the new week with a rise. Investors had previously attributed BTC's recent negative trend to the escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel. However, this early-week growth has rekindled the hopes of the crypto community for a new all-time high (ATH) this year. Several fundamental factors could contribute to Bitcoin's price surge: - The U.S. Federal Reserve’s potential decision to lower the key interest rate. - China’s plans to support its banking sector with a $142 billion liquidity injection. - The effects of the Bitcoin halving, which could increase cryptocurrency scarcity, pushing its price higher. - Historically, the crypto market often shows positive performance in the fourth quarter. The U.S. presidential election, scheduled for November 2024, is also boosting demand for Bitcoin. Political instability and potential shifts in economic policy may trigger volatility in financial markets, driving investors toward assets that are less dependent on government or central bank actions. Additionally, on October 8, HBO will air the film "Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery," which may shed light on the identity of Bitcoin’s creator, Satoshi Nakamoto. This event could further fuel media interest in Bitcoin. 🌐 Upcoming Events in the Global Economy We expect increased volatility in both stock and cryptocurrency markets on the following dates: ➤ 10.10, 15:30 - US Consumer Inflation Index (CPI) for September. ➤ 05.11, 00:00 - US Presidential Election. ➤ 07.11, 21:00 - New Fed Interest Rate Decision. 📈 Statistics of signals from our AI trading indicator: In September, the price of Bitcoin began to recover its positions. Our trading indicator, as always, warned about this in advance! And even during the flat period it gave good entry points. Thanks to the latest updates, all 5 signals have become profitable, and built-in Anti-Flat System prevented losses from manipulative market movements. - Total price movement by all signals: + 37.94% - Maximum price movement: + 10.42% - Average price movement: + 7.58% In addition, I would like to share the forecast of the latest Bitcoin price action by our AI, which not only indicates the direction, but also builds the trajectory of further price movement:
by TradeINEX
$BTCUSDT consolidating within a falling wedge.Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) is currently consolidating within a falling wedge pattern on the 1 hour chart. The price is approaching a breakout point, with two potential scenarios: 1. **Bullish Breakout**: If the price breaks above the descending trendline, the target area is around **66,488 USDT**. 2. **Bearish Breakdown**: If the price falls below the lower support line (~65,472), the target area could drop to around **65,109 USDT**. Watch for a decisive move beyond these key levels to confirm the breakout or breakdown."
Long
by SanelRyan
Bitcoin (BTC): technical and fundamental analysis📈 Technical analysis BTC/USDT The price of Bitcoin continues to fall and has remained below the EMA 200 and EMA 50 moving averages for over a week. A hidden bearish divergence is forming on the RSI indicator. If the support level at $56,000 fails to hold against selling pressure, we expect a move into the Imbalance 1H zone, where the gaps on the horizontal volume levels need to be filled through trading. In the range of $50,000 - $52,000, we anticipate the correction to conclude and the trend to reverse. Otherwise, the price may head into the next Imbalance 4H zone, where it could experience a deep freefall, potentially leading to a retest of the global upward trend line. This is due to the lack of significant resistance blocks and large gaps on the horizontal volume levels in this area. For the price to resume its upward movement, BTC needs to break above the dynamic resistance line of the EMA 200 and secure a position above the ascending trend line. This would pave the way for a retest of the $65,000 resistance level and further movement towards the global trend line and the major resistance block at $70,000 - $75,000. 📉 Bitcoin market global analysis On the daily logarithmic chart, Bitcoin's price continues to move within a broadening wedge pattern. Currently, the price is approaching a retest of the 200-day moving average, and the outcome of this retest will determine its future direction. Globally, the descending wedge is considered a bullish corrective pattern. However, before breaking out upwards and resuming its growth, BTC may test the lower boundary of the wedge near the 0.61-0.78 Fibonacci retracement levels, where the global support trendline is also located. Such a scenario would present a good opportunity to accumulate long-term positions before the final rally of this Bitcoin cycle. Above the current ATH, there are no resistance levels based on historical data. Therefore, to set growth targets, we will use trendlines, Fibonacci extension levels, and an analysis of large order blocks in order books. The first 1.23 Fibonacci extension level is located at $80,000. In the $90,000 - $100,000 range, there is a global trendline built on the peaks of the two previous Bitcoin cycles, along with the 1.38 Fibonacci extension level. The highest trendline is in the range of the 1.61 - 1.78 Fibonacci extension levels, with its test potentially starting at the $100,000 level. 💠 Analysis of liquidity zones and levels The Fear and Greed Index is in the fear zone - 27. The total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market fell to $1993 billion, and the Bitcoin Dominance Index rose to 57.54. According to the analysis of the accumulation of large order blocks in the order books, the largest blocks are at levels 50,000 and 70,000, and the supply and demand zones are located at the following levels: 🟢 Demand zone: 50,000 - 56,000 🔴 Supply zone: 68,000 - 80,000 Levels for long positions: 55,000 - large support block 52,000 - large support block 50,000 - psychological support level Levels for short positions: 60,000 - EMA 200 retest 65,000 - large resistance block 70,000 - large resistance block 80,000 - large resistance block 📊 Fundamental analysis In September, the cryptocurrency market is facing significant uncertainty. There has been a continued outflow from spot Bitcoin ETFs. Last week alone, $305 million was withdrawn from cryptocurrency-based investment products, and on the last trading day, ETFs collectively lost $287.7 million, marking the third-largest daily outflow. Bitcoin historically tends to decline in September, with BTC consistently showing negative performance during this month. Since 2013, its price has dropped by an average of 4.78% in September. Analysts have also noted a decrease in stablecoin inflows, indicating that market participants are expecting further price declines. However, if history repeats itself, BTC could see significant growth starting in October, as large players are already increasing their positions and withdrawing Bitcoin from exchanges. Major Wall Street indices ended Tuesday's trading session with losses, driven by negative trends in the technology, commodities, and oil and gas sectors. Looking ahead, the U.S. economic calendar is packed with important events, including the upcoming presidential elections. Experts predict that cryptocurrencies will become increasingly sensitive to developments surrounding potential changes in U.S. monetary policy. The Federal Reserve is set to make a decision on the key interest rate on September 18. Previously, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated a likely reduction in the key interest rate, boosting investor optimism. 🌐 Upcoming Events in the Global Economy We expect increased volatility in both stock and cryptocurrency markets on the following dates: ➤ 09/06, 15:30 - US unemployment data for August. ➤ 09/11, 15:30 - US consumer inflation index (CPI) for August. ➤ 09/18, 21:00 - New Fed interest rate decision. ➤ 11/05, 00:00 - US presidential election. ➤ 11/07, 21:00 - New Fed interest rate decision. 📈 Statistics of signals from our AI trading indicator: In August, the Bitcoin price continued falling, and then the market began to slowly recover. Our trading indicator, as always, warned about this in advance! And even during the flat period it gave good entry points. Thanks to the latest updates, all 11 signals have become profitable, and built-in Anti-Flat System prevented losses from manipulative market movements. - Total price movement by all signals: + 70.73% - Maximum price movement: + 22.81% - Average price movement: + 6.43%
by TradeINEX
Bitcoin (BTC) technical and fundamental analysis📈 Technical analysis BTC/USDT The price of Bitcoin has fallen amid the escalation in the Middle East and the decision by the US Federal Reserve to keep the key interest rate unchanged. Previously, during the prolonged July rally, the BTC price approached the upper boundary of the descending price channel but failed to break through. This was followed by a correction. Currently, the price has retraced to the 0.38-0.5 Fibonacci retracement levels, where sellers are attempting to push below the local support level of $62,000. We anticipate a retest of the ascending trendline support, which will determine the direction of the next price movement. If the trendline fails to hold against the sellers' pressure, Bitcoin's price may continue to decline into the 1H and 4H Imbalance zones. These zones have significant gaps at the horizontal trading volume levels that need to be filled. Within this range are also the 0.61 - 0.78 Fibonacci retracement levels, where we expect the local correction to end, provided no new fundamental risks arise, which we will discuss below. For the price of BTC to resume its upward trend, it needs to overcome the dynamic resistance line of the EMA50 on the 4H chart and consolidate above the upper boundary of the descending price channel, where it has been for the past five months. A stimulus for the resumption of growth could be the release of new inflation data in the US. 📉 Bitcoin market global analysis On the daily logarithmic chart, Bitcoin's price continues to move within a descending price channel and has locally formed a Double Top pattern. If, during the retest of the lower boundary of the price channel, BTC's price breaks below it, we would expect the Double Top pattern to play out with a move corresponding to its height. The targets for this move could be a return to the 1D Imbalance zone. There, we anticipate a retest of the lower boundary of the price channel, a trend reversal, and a resumption of growth. If, under the influence of fundamental factors, the local correction evolves into a global one, BTC's price might retrace to the 0.61-0.78 Fibonacci retracement levels. This would close the gaps in the horizontal trading volumes in the 1W Imbalance zone through trading activity. 💠 Analysis of liquidity zones and levels The index of fear and greed is in the neutral zone - 52. The total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market fell to $2,209 billion, and the Bitcoin dominance index increased to 56.16. According to the analysis of the accumulation of large blocks of orders in the order books, the supply and demand zones are located at the following levels: 🟢 Demand zone: 55,000 - 60,000 🔴 Supply zone: 70,000 - 75,000 Levels for long positions: 60,000 - retest of the trend line and large support block 55,000 - 57,000 - large support block 50,000 - psychological level of support Levels for short positions: 70,000 - psychological resistance level 72,000 - large resistance block 75,000 - large resistance block 80,000 - large resistance block 📊 Fundamental analysis The Federal Reserve System has once again left the key interest rate unchanged. However, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed the possibility of a potential rate cut in September, which is good news for all high-risk assets. According to Fed representatives, inflation in the country has moved closer to the target value of 2%. A catalyst for renewed market growth could be the release of new inflation data in the US, which would increase the chances of an interest rate cut in the near future. At the same time, geopolitical factors have repeatedly negatively impacted Bitcoin's short-term price dynamics. Currently, the cryptocurrency market is under pressure from the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. However, if the geopolitical situation resolves without a major war, Bitcoin's price could quickly resume its upward trajectory. 🌐 Upcoming Events in the Global Economy We expect increased volatility in both stock and cryptocurrency markets on the following dates: ➤ 14.08, 15:30 - Consumer inflation index (CPI) in the USA for July. ➤ 18.09, 21:00 - New decision on the Fed interest rate. 📈 Statistics of signals from our AI trading indicator: The correction in the cryptocurrency market continues. Our trading Indicator, as always in advance, predicted the current price action and gave the most profitable entry points into positions with minimal risk. Thanks to the latest updates, maximum take profit levels have already been taken, and the price movement according to the latest signals on the spot was: BTC +9.51% ETH +6.91% SOL +15.45% In addition, I would like to share the forecast of the latest Bitcoin price action by our AI, which not only indicates the direction, but also builds the trajectory of further price movement:
by TradeINEX
Bitcoin (BTC) technical and fundamental analysis📈 Technical analysis BTC/USDT The price of Bitcoin is returning to growth amid positive macroeconomic data from the US and a new wave of institutional investor interest in spot Bitcoin ETFs. Currently, the BTC price is moving within a narrow range (65,000 - 72,000), and a breakout from this range will determine the direction of its future movement. At the moment, there is a fourth retest of the descending trendline resistance. To continue the upward movement, the price needs to secure itself above the trendline resistance and overcome the major resistance block at 72,000 - 73,000. This would open the path to a new all-time high in the range of 75,000 - 80,000. Such a positive scenario could unfold between June 7 and June 12, provided that positive inflation data from the US continues to be released. However, the RSI indicator is showing a bearish divergence. If buyers fail to push the BTC price above the trendline and it falls below the dynamic support line at EMA 50 4H, we can expect a local correction. The nearest target for this correction could be the major support block at 65,000 - 68,000, which also contains the point of control (POC) for the value area. If this level does not hold against selling pressure, the BTC price may drop into the Imbalance 1H zone to fill the gaps at the horizontal volume levels. 📉 Bitcoin market global analysis On the daily logarithmic chart, Bitcoin's price has formed a descending wedge pattern. Currently, a retest of its upper boundary is taking place. If buyers manage to secure the price above this boundary, combined with fundamental factors such as a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, it could lead to a new bullish rally, as seen in previous cycles post-halving. Conversely, if the BTC price fails to break out of the wedge pattern, we expect a decline to retest its lower boundary around the 55,000 - 60,000 Imbalance 4H zone. Above the current ATH, there are no resistance levels based on historical data. Therefore, to determine growth targets, we will use trendlines, Fibonacci extension levels, and analysis of large order clusters in exchange order books. There is a local ascending trendline that has been relevant since November 2023. Its test may occur at the 75,000 - 76,000 level, confirmed by a large block of pending orders. Above this, in the 80,000 - 90,000 range, there is a global trendline built on the peaks of the previous two Bitcoin cycles. There is also the 1.38 Fibonacci extension level. The highest trendline is located in the 1.61 - 1.78 Fibonacci extension range, with its test potentially starting at the 100,000 level. 💠 Analysis of liquidity zones and levels Fear and Greed Index is currently in the extreme greed zone - 78. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has risen to $2.576 trillion, and Bitcoin's dominance index has risen to 54.58%. According to the analysis of accumulation of large order blocks in exchange order books, the demand and supply zones are located at the following levels: 🟢 Demand Zone: 60,000 - 68,000 🔴 Supply Zone: 72,000 - 80,000 Levels for long positions: 68,000 - Point of Control (POC) of the value area 65,000 - Major support block 60,000 - Psychological support level Levels for short positions: 72,000 - Retest of the trendline resistance 75,000 - Major resistance block 80,000 - Major resistance block 90,000 - Global trendline 📊 Fundamental analysis Institutional interest in spot BTC ETFs has surged again, with an influx of +$1.374 billion into these instruments over the past two days. The crypto community is anticipating a Bitcoin bull rally, which could be sparked by a change in the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy. On June 4, labor market data began to be released, indicating a slowing US economy. When the economy slows, inflation decreases, and lower inflation is a key factor for the resumption of money printing and the growth of high-risk markets, including the cryptocurrency market. The stock market has already reached new all-time highs in anticipation of positive inflation data on June 12 and in light of recent macroeconomic data from the US. However, there are still 4 days left to resolve the issue of the US Treasury redeeming over $10 trillion in government bonds by June 9. 🌐 Upcoming Events in the Global Economy We expect increased volatility in both stock and cryptocurrency markets on the following dates: ➤ June 6th, 3:30 PM - US Initial Jobless Claims. ➤ June 12th, 3:30 PM - US Consumer Price Index (CPI). ➤ June 12th, 9:00 PM - New Decision on Federal Reserve Interest Rates. ➤ July 31st, 9:00 PM - New Decision on Federal Reserve Interest Rates. 📈 Statistics of signals from our AI trading indicator: In May 2024, the cryptocurrency market began to recover after correction. Our trading indicator, as always, warned about this in advance! And even during the flat period it gave good entry points. Thanks to the latest updates, all 6 signals have become profitable, and the built-in Anti-Flat System prevented losses from manipulative market movements. Total price movement by all signals: + 31.16% Maximum price movement: + 14.86% Average price movement: + 5.19%
by TradeINEX
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Bitcoin (BTC) technical and fundamental analysis📈 Technical analysis BTC/USDT During the corrective movement, the price of Bitcoin reached all three targets from our previous review: the Imbalance 4H zone, the Imbalance 1D zone, and the support level of 57,000. The recent downward wave in the price of BTC was driven by the reluctance of the US Federal Reserve to lower the key interest rate and the outflow of funds from US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Consequently, the price consolidated below the EMA 50 4H line and corrected to the 0.78 Fibonacci level. In the near future, we anticipate sideways movement with possible rebounds for a retest of the descending trendline resistance. In case of further correction, the next target for the price decline of BTC could be the Imbalance 4H zone at 53,000 - 56,000. Significant volume gaps exist at horizontal trading volume levels in this zone, which need to be filled by trading activity. Additionally, below this zone lie the trendline support, the dynamic support line EMA 200D, and the psychological level of 50,000. If they fail to hold against selling pressure, the price may decline to the next Imbalance 1D zone at 44,000 - 47,000. For the resumption of growth, Bitcoin's price needs to overcome the dynamic resistance line EMA 50 and consolidate above the descending trendline. In this scenario, the path will open for the price to retest the historical maximum in the area of the significant resistance block at 73,000 - 75,000. 📉 Bitcoin market global analysis Despite the recent decline, Bitcoin is still in an upward trend. It's worth reminding that BTC has demonstrated almost uninterrupted growth since 2023. Now, the market needs a correction at least to the 0.38 Fibonacci level, where Bitcoin's price can test the 200-day moving average. Historically, halving events increase investors' risk appetite and shift their focus to altcoins. This is evidenced by the fact that during the last halving, Bitcoin's dominance index reached 57% and then sharply declined. During this period, Bitcoin's price may remain in a sideways movement with high volatility for quite some time. After the completion of the correction, we expect a gradual resumption of growth, as seen during previous cycles after halving. Above the current all-time high, there are no more resistance levels based on historical data. Therefore, to determine growth targets, we will use trendlines, Fibonacci extension levels, and analysis of accumulation of large order blocks in exchange order books. We have a local ascending trendline, relevant since November 2023. Its test could occur around the 75,000 level, confirmed by a significant block of pending orders. Above, in the range of 80,000 - 90,000, lies the global trendline constructed based on the peaks of the two previous Bitcoin cycles. There lies the 1.38 Fibonacci extension level as well. The highest trendline is in the range of 1.61 - 1.78 Fibonacci levels, and its test could start from the 100,000 level. 💠 Analysis of zones and levels for making trading decisions Fear and Greed Index is currently in the neutral zone at 48. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has fallen to $2.156 trillion, and Bitcoin's dominance index has decreased to 54.22. According to the analysis of accumulation of large order blocks in exchange order books, the demand and supply zones are located at the following levels: 🟢 Demand Zone: 48,000 - 56,000 🔴 Supply Zone: 70,000 - 80,000 Levels for long positions: 55,000 - major support block 52,000 - retest of the EMA 200D line and trendline 50,000 - psychological support level Levels for short positions: 70,000 - retest of the resistance trendline 75,000 - major resistance block 80,000 - major resistance block 📊 Fundamental analysis The fundamental reasons behind the current decline in Bitcoin are: - Reluctance of the US Federal Reserve to lower the key interest rate. - Outflow of funds from spot Bitcoin ETFs. - Selling pressure from Bitcoin miners. - The prison sentence of Changpeng Zhao, the founder of the largest cryptocurrency exchange Binance. On April 20, the long-awaited Bitcoin (BTC) halving occurred, resulting in a halving of the block reward and miners' incomes dropping to 14-month lows. Experts believe that the risk of miner capitulation is increasing along with the decline in the price of Bitcoin. If the price continues to fall over the next few days and the decline extends for several weeks, major miners may face the need to initiate large-scale sell-offs to hedge their risks. On May 1, the outflow from spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $563.8 million. The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) fund managed by the world's largest asset manager BlackRock lost $36.93 million. The outflow of funds for the previous trading day was the highest since January. While many experts view this as the beginning of a bear market, the key on-chain metrics indicate that it is simply a correction and the long-term outlook for the digital asset remains bullish. Long-term holders mostly anticipate further Bitcoin price growth. 🌐 Upcoming Events in the Global Economy We expect increased volatility in both stock and cryptocurrency markets on the following dates: ➤ May 9th, 3:30 PM - US Unemployment Data. ➤ May 15th - US Consumer Price Index (CPI). ➤ June 12th, 9:00 PM - New Decision on Federal Reserve Interest Rates. ➤ July 31st, 9:00 PM - New Decision on Federal Reserve Interest Rates. 📈 Statistics of signals from our AI trading indicator: Our trading indicator, as always in advance, predicted the current price action and gave the most profitable entry points into positions with minimal risk. Thanks to the latest updates, maximum take profit levels have already been taken, and the price movement according to the latest signals on the spot was: BTC +10.46% ETH +12.71% SOL +14.82% In addition, I would like to share the forecast of the latest Bitcoin price action by our AI, which not only indicates the direction, but also builds the trajectory of further price movement:
by TradeINEX
Bitcoin Halving 2024: All What You Need To Know📈 Technical analysis BTC/USDT Bitcoin is undergoing a local correction ahead of the halving, scheduled for April 20th. The price of BTC has already reached the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level from the last upward impulse and is currently testing the dynamic support line EMA 50 4H. In case it doesn't withstand the pressure from sellers, we expect the price to move towards the nearest significant support block at 65,000 - 66,000, which is at the 0.78 Fibonacci level. Currently, the price is moving within the bounds of a symmetrical triangle. However, if it breaks below its lower boundary, the targets for this correction could be the Imbalance 4H zones (64,000 - 65,000) and Imbalance 1D (58,000 - 60,000), where it's necessary to fill gaps in horizontal volume trading levels. For a resumption of the uptrend, the price needs to establish itself above the upper boundary of the forming triangle and overcome the significant resistance block at 73,000 - 75,000. In this case, the target for Bitcoin's pre-halving rally could be a test of the global trend line in the area of the significant resistance block at 80,000. 📉 Bitcoin market global analysis Bitcoin is showing positive dynamics despite a decrease in the interest of large investors in spot Bitcoin ETFs and sales of coins by miners. The price of Bitcoin is entering the stage of a pre-halving bull rally. However, historically, Bitcoin halvings have been preceded by corrections. At the moment, we are considering two possible scenarios around the Bitcoin halving: Updating the historical maximum before the halving in the range of 80,000 - 87,000, after which a deep correction is likely before the continuation of the bull rally. To realize this scenario, the price of Bitcoin needs to hold above the 70,000 level with a weekly candle. If Bitcoin can maintain its growth momentum until the halving, we may expect a global correction of the entire growth since 2023. Indeed, the halving could signal a sell-off based on the cryptocurrency reaching a local maximum. A more significant correction now and updating the historical maximum after the halving, against the backdrop of changes in the Fed's policy and liquidity inflows into the markets. Above the current ATH, we have no more resistance levels based on historical data. Therefore, to determine growth targets, we will use trend lines, Fibonacci extension levels, and analysis of accumulation of large order blocks in exchange order books. We have a local upward trend line, which has been relevant since November 2023. Its test could occur at the 75,000 level, confirmed by a significant block of pending orders. Furthermore, in the range of 80,000 - 90,000, there is a global trend line built on the peaks of the two previous Bitcoin cycles. Additionally, the 1.38 Fibonacci extension level is located there. The highest trend line is in the range of 1.61 - 1.78 Fibonacci levels, and its test could start from the 100,000 level. 💠 Analysis of zones and levels for making trading decisions The Fear and Greed Index is in the extreme greed zone at 80. The total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market has decreased to 2,513 billion dollars, and the Bitcoin dominance index has risen to 54.15. According to the analysis of the accumulation of large order blocks in exchange order books, demand and supply zones are located at the following levels: 🟢 Demand Zone: 60 000 - 66 000 🔴 Supply Zone: 73 000 - 80 000 Levels for long positions: 66,000: Retest of the local trendline support 60,000 - 62,000: Significant support block 55,000 - 58,000: Significant support block Levels for short positions: 75,000: Significant resistance block 80,000 - 87,000: Test of the global trendline 100,000: Psychological resistance level 📊 Fundamental analysis With just 11 days remaining until the highly anticipated event in the cryptocurrency market - the Bitcoin halving scheduled for April 20, 2024, anticipation is high. This event will halve the rate at which new BTC enters the market. Historically, the three previous Bitcoin halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020 sparked cycles of cryptocurrency growth due to the formation of its deficit. However, the latter half of April may prove to be highly unstable for Bitcoin due to the commencement of Quantitative Tightening (QT) by the US Federal Reserve, where the government reduces the amount of money in circulation. A true bullish market may only commence after May 1, when the Fed eases its QT measures and the US Treasury likely injects an additional $1 trillion, which should bolster market liquidity. Interest from large investors in spot ETFs is waning. Weekly inflows have failed to return to the levels seen at the beginning of March. Meanwhile, trading volumes have decreased from an average of $43 billion to $17.4 billion. Competition among miners has reached unprecedented levels. The Bitcoin network's hash rate has surged to approximately 600 EH/s compared to 116 EH/s since the last halving. This leap signifies that miners now require significantly more effort and resources to mine the same amount of BTC. At the same time, miners have begun actively selling the coins they mine. In late March, daily sales on over-the-counter platforms reached 1,600 bitcoins, marking the highest level since August 2023. 🌐 Upcoming Events in the Global Economy The following dates are expected to bring increased volatility in both the stock and cryptocurrency markets: ➤ April 9th, 15:30 - US Consumer Price Index. ➤ April 20th - Bitcoin Halving. ➤ April 25th, 15:30 - US GDP Data for Q1. ➤ May 1st, 21:00 - New Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision. ➤ June 12th, 21:00 - New Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision. 📈 Statistics of signals from our AI trading indicator: In March 2024, the price of BTC has updated its ATH amid expectations of halving and an influx of capital into spot Bitcoin ETFs. Our trading indicator, as always, warned about this in advance! And even during the flat period it gave good entry points. Thanks to the latest updates, all signals have become profitable, and built-in Anti-Flat System prevented losses from manipulative market movements. Total price movement by all signals: + 36.59% Maximum price movement: + 16.90% Average price movement: + 9.14% In addition, I would like to share the forecast of the latest Bitcoin price action by our AI, which not only indicates the direction, but also builds the trajectory of further price movement:
by TradeINEX
1
Bitcoin (BTC) technical and fundamental analysis📈 Technical analysis BTC/USDT The price of Bitcoin has hit an all-time high amid expectations of the halving and capital inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. Currently, it is approaching a test of the local resistance trendline, which will determine the direction of further price movement. If the BTC price fails to overcome it immediately, we can expect a correction of the last upward impulse towards the dynamic support line EMA 50 4H. There is also an important psychological level at 70,000 above which the price needs to hold. However, if they cannot withstand selling pressure, there is a chance of seeing a correction to the Imbalance 4H zone between 55,000 and 60,000, where it is necessary to close the gaps in trading volumes at horizontal levels. The need for a correction is also indicated by the emerging bearish divergence on the RSI indicator. In the next section, we will consider Bitcoin targets if, due to fundamental factors, its price continues its relentless rise. 📉 Bitcoin market global analysis After consolidating above the 0.78 Fibonacci level and reaching a new all-time high, the price of BTC has transitioned into a full-fledged bullish trend. With no historical resistance levels above the ATH, we will utilize trendlines, Fibonacci extension levels, and analysis of significant order blocks in exchange order books to determine growth targets. For the continuation of the uptrend, Bitcoin's price first needs to establish itself above the 70,000 level on a weekly candlestick basis. Currently, it is approaching a test of the local ascending trendline, which has been relevant since November 2023. This test may occur around the 75,000 level, supported by a significant block of pending orders. Beyond that, around the 90,000 mark, lies the global trendline based on the peaks of the two previous Bitcoin cycles. Additionally, the 1.38 Fibonacci extension level aligns in this area. The highest trendline sits within the 1.61 to 1.78 Fibonacci extension range, with a potential test starting from the 100,000 level. Bitcoin's price is entering the pre-halving bull rally phase. However, historically, Bitcoin halvings have been preceded by corrections. The RSI indicator is once again in the overbought zone, forming a bearish divergence. Moreover, the fear and greed index has been in extreme greed territory for quite some time, typically signaling a trend reversal. Considering the absence of a significant correction since October 2023, conditions are ripe for one to begin. If Bitcoin can maintain its upward momentum until the halving, we may anticipate a global correction of the entire 2023 uptrend afterward. The halving itself could serve as a selling signal, based on the idea that the cryptocurrency has reached a local peak, similar to what happened following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US in January 2024. In that scenario, we would expect a correction in the 0.5 to 0.68 Fibonacci level range and a retest of the 200-week moving average. Additionally, there lies the Imbalance 1W zone between 54,000 and 60,000, where it is crucial to close gaps in horizontal trading volume levels. 💠 Analysis of zones and levels for making trading decisions The Fear and Greed Index is in the extreme greed zone at 82. The total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market has increased to 2,638 billion dollars, and the Bitcoin dominance index has risen to 53.92. According to the analysis of the accumulation of large order blocks in exchange order books, demand and supply zones are located at the following levels: 🟢 Demand Zone: 55000 - 62000 🔴 Supply Zone: 75000 - 100000 Levels for long positions: 60,000: Retest of the local trendline support 50,000: Point of Control (POC) level in the value area 46,000-48,000: Retest of the global trendline support Levels for short positions: 75,000: Test of the local trendline 85,000 - 90,000: Test of the global trendline 100,000: Psychological resistance level 📊 Fundamental analysis The uninterrupted rise of Bitcoin is occurring as the halving event approaches. This event is scheduled for April 2024 and will halve the rate of new BTC entering the market. The previous three halvings, which took place in 2012, 2016, and 2020, triggered cycles of cryptocurrency growth due to the formation of its scarcity. In 2024, the scarcity of Bitcoin may become more acute due to the adoption of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the influx of large capital into the market. The growing interest of investors in spot Bitcoin ETFs forces issuers to buy cryptocurrency from the market. The volume of BTC assets held by BlackRock has increased to 196,065 bitcoins, surpassing MicroStrategy by 3,065 coins. 🌐 Upcoming Events in the Global Economy The following dates are expected to bring increased volatility in both the stock and cryptocurrency markets: ➤ 12.03, 16:30 - Consumer inflation index in the USA (CPI). ➤ 20.03, 21:00 - New decision on the Fed interest rate. 📈 Statistics of signals from our AI trading indicator: In February 2024, the price of BTC continued to rise amid expectations of halving and an influx of capital into spot Bitcoin ETFs. Our trading indicator, as always, warned about this in advance! And even during the flat period it gave good entry points. Thanks to the latest updates, all signals have become profitable, and built-in Anti-Flat System prevented losses from manipulative market movements. Total price movement by all signals: + 47.28% Maximum price movement: + 23.96% Average price movement: + 15.76% In addition, I would like to share the forecast of the latest Bitcoin price action by our AI, which not only indicates the direction, but also builds the trajectory of further price movement:
by TradeINEX
1
Bitcoin (BTC) technical and fundamental analysis📈 Technical analysis BTC/USDT Bitcoin price has reached all targets from our previous review and set a new local high at $57,400. The driving force behind this growth impulse was the record inflow of funds into spot Bitcoin ETFs. Additionally, fundamental factors such as the upcoming halving and the rise of the US stock market in anticipation of the Fed's move to lower the key interest rate also contributed to this. Thus, the BTC price has consolidated above the key level of $50,000 and broken above the resistance trendline. Currently, we anticipate a local correction and trading within the 4-hour Imbalance zone to fill in the gaps at horizontal levels of trading volumes. In this zone, a retest of the dynamic support line EMA 50 4H should occur, which will determine the direction of further price movement. If the price consolidates above it, we expect a test of the $60,000 level. However, considering that the RSI indicator is in extreme overbought territory, there is a high probability of further correction continuation and a retest of the psychological level of $50,000. The next correction targets could be the mirror level of $48,000 and the trendline at the $44,000 level, which are within the range of 0.61 - 0.78 Fibonacci levels, respectively. 📉 Bitcoin market global analysis On a global scale, the price of BTC has reached exactly the 0.78 Fibonacci correction level from the entire decline since 2021. If it manages to consolidate above it, it would indicate that it's not just a correction anymore, but Bitcoin's price has transitioned to a full-fledged pre-halving bull rally. However, historically, Bitcoin has experienced a correction before each halving. RSI indicator readings are again in the strong overbought zone, and the fear and greed index is in the extreme greed zone. Considering that we haven't had any serious correction since October 2023, all conditions are now forming for its onset. If Bitcoin can maintain its growth momentum until the halving, then after it, we can expect a global correction of all growth since 2023. The halving itself could be a signal to sell, based on the cryptocurrency reaching a local peak, similar to what happened following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US in January 2024. In this case, we would expect a correction in the range of 0.5-0.68 Fibonacci levels and a retest of the 200-week moving average. Also, in this area lies the Imbalance 1W zone of 34,000-31,000, where it is necessary to fill gaps at horizontal levels of trading volumes. 💠 Analysis of liquidity zones The Fear and Greed Index is in the extreme greed zone at 79. The total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market has increased to 2,087 billion dollars, and the Bitcoin dominance index has risen to 53.65. According to the analysis of the accumulation of large order blocks in exchange order books, demand and supply zones are located at the following levels: 🟢 Demand Zone: 30000 - 40000 🔴 Supply Zone: 60000 - 68000 Levels for long positions: 50,000 - Retest of the key psychological level 48,000 - Significant support block 44,000-45,000 - Potential retest zone of the trendline Levels for short positions: 60,000 - Test of key psychological resistance level 62,000 - 64,000: Major resistance block 68,000 - 70,000: Test of Bitcoin's historical maximum 📊 Fundamental analysis The current rise in the price of Bitcoin has been supported by the deadline for settlements on BTC futures contracts. Additionally, there are several fundamental reasons: Increase in the inflow of funds into cryptocurrency funds: Trading volume of spot Bitcoin ETFs hit a record $2.4 billion. Nine new spot Bitcoin ETFs set a new record for total daily volume. Bullish rally ahead of the Bitcoin halving, which is 50 days away. Rise in the US stock market, driven by expectations of the Fed's transition to lowering the key interest rate. This also sparks interest from large investors in digital assets. The S&P500 index of the largest US companies has again hit its historical maximum, while the DXY dollar index continues its local correction. 🌐 Upcoming Events in the Global Economy The following dates are expected to bring increased volatility in both the stock and cryptocurrency markets: ➤ 28.02, 16:30 - US GDP data. ➤ 8.03, 16:30 - Data on the unemployment rate in the USA. ➤ 12.03, 16:30 - Consumer inflation index in the USA (CPI). ➤ 20.03, 21:00 - New decision on the Fed interest rate. 📈 Results of signals from our AI trading indicator: Our trading AI Indicator, as always in advance, predicted the current price action and gave the most profitable entry points into long positions with minimal risk. Thanks to the latest updates, maximum take profit levels have already been taken, and the price movement according to the latest signals on the spot was: BTC +10.80% ETH +10.34% LTC +10.15% In addition, I would like to share the forecast of the latest Bitcoin price action by our AI, which not only indicates the direction, but also builds the trajectory of further price movement:
by TradeINEX
Bitcoin (BTC): technical and fundamental analysis📈 Technical analysis BTC/USDT During the correction, the price of Bitcoin reached both targets from our previous review: the Imbalance 1D and Imbalance 1W zones. The price drop after the approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF was halted by a significant support block at the level of 38600, from which a local rebound occurred. BTC price broke above the dynamic resistance line EMA 50 4H, and now we observe its top retest. If the price manages to consolidate above it and surpass the resistance level of 44000, we expect the price to enter the Imbalance 1D zone and trade within it, with the aim of closing gaps at horizontal levels of trading volumes. There is also the range of 0.68-0.78 Fibonacci levels, exceeding which would indicate the completion of the local correction and the resumption of growth. Otherwise, if the Bitcoin price fails to consolidate above the EMA 50 4H line and buyers lack the strength to overcome the resistance level of 44000, we anticipate a continuation of the price decline and a test of the trendline around the support level of 38000. 📉 Bitcoin market global analysis Globally, the price of Bitcoin is approaching the pre-halving rally, which in previous cycles was preceded by a sharp decline. On the daily logarithmic chart, the BTC price has fallen below the global trendline support and is currently retesting it from below. The outcome of this test will determine whether the recent price drop concludes as a local correction or if we should prepare for a global correction of the entire growth from the past year. If the correction concludes, the next target for growth will be the 0.78 Fibonacci level, where a significant resistance block is located between 48000 and 53000. However, I would like to remind you that we have not experienced a significant correction in the market since the beginning of 2023. The RSI indicator divergence has just begun its work. If, under selling pressure, the price fails to return above the global trendline, we expect a correction in the range of 0.38-0.5 Fibonacci levels and a retest of the 200-week moving average. Additionally, there is the Imbalance 1W zone from 34000 to 31000, where it is necessary to close gaps at horizontal levels of trading volumes. 💠 Analysis of zones and levels for making trading decisions The Fear and Greed Index is in the extreme greed zone at 63. The total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market has increased to 1,587 billion dollars, and the Bitcoin dominance index has risen to 52.6. According to the analysis of the accumulation of large order blocks in exchange order books, demand and supply zones are located at the following levels: 🟢 Demand Zone: 35000 - 38500 🔴 Supply Zone: 45000 - 50000 Levels for long positions: 38000-38500 - significant support block 35000-36000 - possible retest zone of SMA 200 1D 34000-35000 - possible retest zone of the trendline Levels for short positions: 47000-48000 - significant resistance block 50000 - psychological resistance level 57000 - 0.78 Fibonacci correction level 📊 Fundamental analysis Experts in the crypto community believe that the market correction following the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs has concluded, and investors can expect increased activity in the altcoin market with subsequent movement of BTC towards new local highs. On the first day after the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, the trading volume of Bitcoin ETFs amounted to $4.54 billion. On the second day, this figure decreased to $3.15 billion. The market ended the previous week with a trading volume of $1.68 billion. However, last week, Bitcoin futures ETFs reclaimed part of their investments. As of January 19, 2024, spot instruments occupied 86.75% of the market. Meanwhile, the outflow of funds from cryptocurrency-based investment products has continued for the second consecutive week. From January 22 to 26, investors collectively withdrew $500 million from cryptocurrency funds, as noted by analysts in CoinShares' weekly report. However, the capital outflow from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) has finally slowed down. Yesterday, the U.S. Federal Reserve kept the interest rate unchanged at 5.5%. Jerome Powell stated that they have achieved significant success in combating inflation in the U.S., but it still remains high. Following the meeting, the Fed does not consider it advisable to start lowering rates until there is confidence in the trajectory of inflation moving toward 2%. Almost all Fed officials believe that it is worth lowering rates this year. The index of the largest U.S. companies, S&P500, set a new all-time high, while the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is in a sideways movement. Both markets are currently experiencing a local correction. 🌐 Upcoming Events in the Global Economy The following dates are expected to bring increased volatility in both the stock and cryptocurrency markets: ➤ February 13, 16:30 - Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January. ➤ March 20, 21:00 - New decision on the Federal Reserve interest rate. 📈 Statistics of signals from our AI trading indicator: In January 2024 Bitcoin, and after it the entire cryptocurrency market, fell due to the end of the race of companies to launch spot Bitcoin ETFs. Our trading indicator, as always, warned about this in advance! And even during the flat period it gave good entry points. Thanks to the latest updates, all signals have become profitable, and built-in Anti-Flat System prevented losses from manipulative market movements. Total price movement by all signals: +36.32% Maximum price movement: +18.16% Average price movement: 5.18% In addition, I would like to share the forecast of the latest Bitcoin price action by our AI, which not only indicates the direction, but also builds the trajectory of further price movement:
by TradeINEX
1
BTC market review in the context of Bitcoin-ETF adoption📈 Technical analysis BTC/USDT After the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF, the price of BTC broke out of the parallel price channel and updated its local maximum to the level of 49,000, where its growth was halted by a significant resistance block. The lack of active Bitcoin growth surprised many market participants, but this can be explained by the fact that the approval of spot BTC ETFs was already factored into the price due to market expectations. The market had long been fueled by news, and major players had invested in Bitcoin before the SEC's final decision. A bearish divergence has formed on the RSI indicator on both 1-hour (1H) and 1-day (1D) charts. Therefore, in case sellers manage to push below the dynamic support line EMA50 on the 1-hour chart, we expect the continuation of a local correction in the range between the 0.5 - 0.78 Fibonacci correction levels. There, the Point of Control (POC) and the 1-day imbalance zone are located, where gaps in horizontal levels of trading volumes need to be closed. The nearest significant support block, from which a rebound may occur, is at levels 44000-45000. To continue the rise in the price of Bitcoin, it needs to consolidate above the upward trendline of resistance. In the event that buyers manage to overcome significant resistance blocks at 48000-50000 and 52000-53000, the upward trend may continue. 📉 Bitcoin market global analysis The price of Bitcoin has reached exactly the 0.68 Fibonacci correction level from the entire decline since reaching the all-time high (ATH) in 2021. The next target for growth is the 0.78 Fibonacci level. But there is a significant resistance block is situated on the way in the range of 48000-53000. However, it's worth noting that almost uninterrupted upward movement has persisted for the past three months. The RSI indicator readings are in the overbought zone, increasing the likelihood of a local correction before the continuation of the upward trend. If, under selling pressure, the price consolidates below the level of 38500, we can anticipate a correction in the range of 0.38-0.5 Fibonacci levels and a retest of the 200-week moving average. A retest of the global ascending trendline might occur there. Additionally, there is the 1-week Imbalance zone at 34000-31000 where needs to close gaps at horizontal levels of trading volumes. 💠 Analysis of zones and levels for making trading decisions The Fear and Greed Index is in the extreme greed zone at 76. The total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market has increased to 1,725 billion dollars, and the Bitcoin dominance index has risen to 52.6. According to the analysis of the accumulation of large order blocks in exchange order books, demand and supply zones are located at the following levels: 🟢 Demand Zone: 35000 - 41000 🔴 Supply Zone: 48000 - 53000 Levels for long positions: 44000-45000 - large support block 37000-41000 - largest support block 34000-35000 - zone of possible retest of the trend line 30000-31000 - zone of possible retest of the 200-week moving average Levels for short positions: 48000-50000 - large resistance block 42000-53000 - large resistance block 57000 - 0.78 Fibonacci retracement level 📊 Fundamental analysis On Wednesday, January 10, 2024, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the first-ever Bitcoin spot ETFs in the United States. On that day, a large volume of BTC was transferred to exchanges, likely with the intention of subsequent sales. The behavior of major market participants may suggest that, in their view, the price of BTC is approaching a local peak. It's also important to note that ETFs will start accepting capital only when trading opens in the U.S., and all those wishing to participate in trading have already invested in BTC before the SEC's final decision. 🌐 Upcoming Events in the Global Economy The following dates are expected to bring increased volatility in both the stock and cryptocurrency markets: ➤ January 25, 16:30 - U.S. GDP Data for the 4th Quarter of 2023. ➤ January 30, 17:00 - U.S. Labor Market Data - JOLTS for December 2023. ➤ January 31, 2024, 21:00 - New Fed Interest Rate Decision. 📈 Statistics of signals from our AI trading indicator: In December 2023, Bitcoin price showed good upward dynamics on expectations of the spot Bitcoin-ETF adoption. Our trading indicator, as always, warned about this in advance! And even during the flat period it gave good entry points. Thanks to the latest updates, all signals have become profitable, and built-in Anti-Flat System prevented losses from manipulative market movements. Total price movement by all signals: +36.32% Maximum price movement: +18.16% Average price movement: 5.18%
by TradeINEX
Bitcoin (BTC) technical and fundamental analysis📈 Technical analysis BTC/USDT The price of Bitcoin continues to move within the ascending parallel price channel. After an unsuccessful retest of the 38000 level, the price returned to its lower boundary, where we are currently awaiting a retest. Thus, a new price range of 35000 - 38000 has formed. For BTC to continue its upward movement, it needs to surpass the resistance level at 38000 and consolidate above the upper boundary of the price channel. If this occurs, we anticipate a growth impulse towards the 40000-42000 zone, where the next significant resistance block is located. However, the RSI indicator shows a classic bearish divergence, increasing the likelihood of a correction before further growth. If, under selling pressure, the price consolidates below the lower boundary of the price channel, we expect a correction in the 0.38-0.5 Fibonacci levels range. A retest of the global ascending trendline might occur in this range. The Imbalance 1W zone is also situated there, where it is necessary to fill the gaps at horizontal levels of trading volumes. The correction scenario can be invalidated if the price manages to break the 38000 resistance level with an impulse movement and consolidates above it. News regarding the approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF for GrayScale or BlackRock funds could contribute to this. 📉 Bitcoin market global analysis On the daily logarithmic chart, the price of BTC once again failed to consolidates above the global ascending trendline. RSI indicators are also forming a bearish divergence, indicating the need for a local corrective movement. If sellers manage to break the support level at 35000, we will expect the formation of a Bearish Wedge pattern and a global correction of the entire growth from the beginning of this year to the 0.38 Fibonacci levels, where the psychological support level of 30,000 is located. However, news regarding the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF could provide another powerful upward impulse. If this happens in the near future, the correction may be postponed again. 💠 Analysis of zones and levels for making trading decisions The Fear and Greed Index is in the greed zone at 70. The total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market has increased to 1,371 billion dollars, and the Bitcoin dominance index has fallen to 52.2. Based on the analysis of significant order blocks in the order books, the demand and supply zones are situated at the following levels: 🟢 Demand Zone: 25,000 - 35,000 🔴 Supply Zone: 38,000 - 48,000 Levels for entering long positions: 34,000-35000 - zone of potential retest of the trendline 30,000 - a psychological support level 28,000 - a retest of the 200-week moving average and the 0.78 Fibonacci retracement level Levels for entering short positions: 36,000-38,000 - a possible retest of the trendline on the logarithmic chart 40,000 - a psychological resistance level 42000 - a large resistance block 📊 Fundamental analysis The SEC is postponing the review of applications for a spot Bitcoin ETF. However, the cryptocurrency market still perceives this positively because the delay is not a rejection. Bloomberg analysts expect, with a 90% probability, a positive decision from the SEC regarding the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF by the end of January 2024. On November 14, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics published fresh data. According to the agency, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. slowed to 3.2% in October. In September, the index was at 3.7%. The CPI result exceeded forecasts, and the positive trend allows analysts to hope that the U.S. Federal Reserve will not return to raising the key interest rate. The stock market responded very positively to this news. The S&P 500 index, representing the largest U.S. companies, held above the dynamic resistance line EMA50 and continued to rise. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) broke downward from the expanding wedge pattern. 🌐 Upcoming Events in the Global Economy The following dates are expected to bring increased volatility in both the stock and cryptocurrency markets: ➤ December 13, 2023, 21:00 - New Fed Interest Rate Decision. ➤ January 31, 2024, 21:00 - New Fed Interest Rate Decision.
by TradeINEX
BTC is driven by expectations of a spot Bitcoin ETF and SEC news📈 Technical analysis BTC/USDT As we mentioned in the previous review, Bitcoin's chart now reflects expectations of BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF approval. Another reason for the current rise was the news of the SEC withdrawing its lawsuit against Ripple (XRP). Following our scenario, after consolidating BTC above the $28,000 level, it has predictably reached a retest of the psychological level of $30,000 and the upward resistance trendline. This retest will determine its further direction of the price movement. However, BTC quickly passed through the 1W Imbalance zone without filling the gaps at horizontal volume trading levels. Therefore, we are currently expecting a local correction and trading in this zone. The trigger for the start of this decline could be an exit from the overbought zone of the RSI indicator. Then, if the price manages to surpass the $30,000 level and hold above it, we will anticipate movement towards the primary target of the current scenario: the 1W Imbalance zone and testing the global upward trendline in the range of $33,000 to $35,000. This scenario could be invalidated if the price drops below the 0.78 Fibonacci retracement level and consolidates itself below the symmetric level of $28,500. 📉 Bitcoin market global analysis On the daily logarithmic chart, the BTC price continues to consolidate above the 200-week moving average and has approached the supply zone. If the price consolidates above the significant resistance block at $30,000, we can anticipate the realization of our primary scenario: a retest of the lower boundary of the Bearish Wedge pattern in the range of $33,000 to $35,000. This would occur before a correction of the entire upward movement since the beginning of this year, which we expect to fall within the 0.61-0.78 Fibonacci retracement levels, namely in the range of $20,000 to $25,000. The RSI indicator has entered the overbought zone; however, there is still approximately 20% of headroom. Entering the extreme overbought zone could act as a trigger for a trend reversal beginning. 💠 Analysis of zones and levels for making trading decisions The fear and greed index has returned to the neutral zone, currently standing at 53. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has risen to $1,099 billion, with Bitcoin's dominance index reaching 52.47. Analyzing the accumulation of large order blocks in the order books, we observe the following demand and supply zones: 🟢 Demand Zone: 24,000 - 27,500 🔴 Supply Zone: 30,000 - 35,000 Levels for long positions: 26,500 - A support block and trendline retest. 25,000 - Another support block and trendline retest. 23,000 - The point of control (POC) zone. 22,000 - The 0.61 Fibonacci retracement level. 20,000 - The 0.78 Fibonacci retracement level. 17,000-19,000: The 1-hour imbalance zone. Levels for short positions: 30,000 - The 0.78 Fibonacci retracement level. 35,000 - The 1-week imbalance zone. 36,000-38,000: A zone for a potential trendline retest. 40,000 - A psychological resistance level. 📊 Fundamental analysis Today, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) withdrew its lawsuit against Ripple's CEO Brad Garlinghouse and co-founder Chris Larsen. The digital asset market is reacting positively to Ripple's victories, as it plays an important role in shaping transparent regulation of the cryptocurrency market by regulatory authorities. The future of other cryptocurrencies may depend on Ripple's success. The S&P500 index of the largest U.S. companies failed to break through the dynamic resistance line of EMA50 and continued its decline towards the support level at 4,200. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is currently trading sideways. 🌐 Upcoming Events in the Global Economy The following dates are expected to bring increased volatility to both stock and cryptocurrency markets: ➤ October 26, 15:30 - U.S. GDP data for the 3rd quarter. ➤ November 1, 21:00 - New decision on the Federal Reserve interest rate. ➤ November 3, 15:30 - Unemployment rate data for October.
by TradeINEX
BTC wait for longs and shortsAs, we see BTC/USDT has been consolidating from last 14 days, so 1) If BTC/USDT breaks green trendline than it would be good to short on retest, and it is also forming a flag pattern (which is a continuation pattern) so we might see big correction with minimum 10% of move downside 2) But if bulls manage to break out of this kind of side-wise trend than it will show big move upside So, huge moves are coming, if we break this sidewise trend (probably downside) price might consolidate(or retest or take pullback) before breaking out (Don't open any position on wick) (Don't take trades based on this idea, even I don't trade according to my idea) (Do your own analysis) (NOT A financial advice) (High chances of loss if you follow my idea)
Short
by Aayush_Ganjawala