High Risk Short Against Nasdaq 100, Due for a Reality Check?While the Nasdaq 100 is still up around 8% YTD, signs point to a potential cool-down phase for the index. Here's what's worth watching:
Uncertainty around Fed Policy: While the Fed has hinted towards rate cuts, a reversal to interest rate hikes would be detrimental to the market, especially for high-growth tech stocks.
Insider Selling: The recent wave of stock sales by billionaires like Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg could indicate insider concern about a potential correction.
AI Hype Cooling Off: The meteoric rise of Nvidia and its AI-related dominance has been a major driver of the bull run. A cooling off period or sector rotation could weigh on the Nasdaq 100.
Let's see how this plays out! :)
As always, not financial advice. DYOR!
Search in ideas for "NVIDIA"
NVDIA maybe ready for wave 5 higherIs wave 4 done at a little more than 23.6% retracement? Wave four is a flat and wave 2 was zig-zag retracing 61.8%, so we have alternation. Nvidia is now at the 20-week average so that is an ideal support as well which held in wave 2 too. Wave 5 should follow wave 4. 5=1 then the level is at 300 which should coincide with the top end of the channel. A rising channel has been drawn keeping the most recent low as the pivot. The 20wma is at 418.
Market Reactions to Fed’s “Hawkish Pause” Market Reactions to Fed’s “Hawkish Pause”
Today the Federal Reserve chose not to proceed with an 11th consecutive interest rate hike, opting instead to assess the effects of the previous 10 hikes. However, the Fed announced that it anticipates implementing two additional quarter percentage point increases before the year concludes. While the pause was largely expected, the fact that policy makers see rates at 5.6% at year-end was what caught the market off-guard.
The combination of the pause with the suggestion of two more 25 basis points hikes has been dubbed the “hawkish pause”.
Following the decision, stock market closing results were mixed. The Dow Jones closed more than 230 points lower, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq experienced gains of 0.1% and 0.4% respectively. The Nasdaq Composite was primarily bolstered by the gains made in AI-adjacent stocks of Nvidia and AMD.
The day began with Bitcoin surpassing $26,000. However, it has since retraced to a 24-hour low of $25,791. Some analysts are predicting an inevitable drop to $25,000 based on recent cryptocurrency news that is dominated by discussions on regulation.
Meanwhile, gold prices initially rose to touch $1959 per ounce in the session but later trimmed gains, trading around $1945.
The dollar has weakened across the board, with the DXY down 0.32%. The NZD is the biggest mover, rising by more than one percent to a 3-week high of $0.6211. Gains in EUR and GBP were more modest, at +0.39% each.
Nasdaq 100 InvestmentAn overview of the Nasdaq-100 index (NDX)
The Nasdaq-100 is one of the world’s preeminent large-cap growth indexes. It includes 100 of the largest domestic and international non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market based on market capitalization. It is home to the four companies who have touched the trillion-dollar mark in the US: Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), and Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL).
The prominence of these companies along with other technology leaders such as Cisco (CSCO), Qualcomm (QCOM), Intel (INTC), NVIDIA (NVDA), Micron (MU), Adobe (ADBE), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Baidu (BIDU) often create an impression of it as a technology index.
While technology is a dominant segment in the index, it is well-balanced by sectors such as consumer services, healthcare, consumer goods, and industrials which constitute the other 50%. Consumer services companies account for almost a quarter of the cap weight, up from 17% a decade ago.
Within healthcare, Nasdaq-100 is home to some of the most prominent biotechnology companies such as Gilead (GILD), Regeneron (REGN), Vertex (VRTX), and Amgen (AMGN). These companies are working on cutting edge research. Recently, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals announced important advances in novel COVID-19 antibody program while Gilead has initiated two Phase 3 clinical studies to evaluate the safety and efficacy of remdesivir (investigational nucleotide analog) in adults diagnosed with COVID-19. China’s health authorities have initiated two clinical trials in patients to determine remdesivir’s potential for treatment for the coronavirus.
If we look at current market trends, companies such as Zoom (ZM) are surging on the work-from-home model while others, such as American Airlines (AAL), and Expedia (EXPE), are struggling due to travel halt.
The index holds consumption-led companies such as Netflix (NFLX), Pepsi (PEP), Costco (COST), and Starbucks (SBUX), some of which are suffering due to supply chain bottlenecks and lockdowns while others are partial beneficiaries of the current chaos.
As we look at the larger picture, the NDX is a diversified mix of sound companies and is better positioned compared to the S&P 500 due to the negligible or complete absence of sectors such as energy and financials. One thing which is unique to this index is its focus on companies which are symbolic of innovation and future growth. Since 2008, the Nasdaq-100 has generated higher growth rates than competing indexes, such as S&P 500 Index and the Russell 1000 Growth Index.