PRE MARKET ANALYSIS OF NIFTY AND BANK NIFTY FOR 27 AUG 202427 Aug 2024
WORLD MARKETS
1. All the world markets are looking bullish.
INDIA VIX AND GIFT NIFTY
1. INDIA VIX has closed above 13.7 indicating bullishness. But has increased.
2. GIFT NIFTY is indicating a flat opening.
INDEX HEAVY WEIGHTS
1.HDFC Bank has closed below 1640. But is bullish. It has taken rejection at 1650 levels.
2. ICICI Bank is also very bullish. 1217 is a strong resistance.
3. Reliance has resistance at 3051. It has closed above 3000 decisively.
TRADING PLAN
1. NIFTY OPEN BETWEEN 24963 - 25055: No Trade.
2. NIFTY OPEN ABOVE 25055: Wait for a consolidation and break above 25105 decisively. can SELL 25000 put options.
3. NIFTY OPEN BELOW 24960: Wait for a consolidation and break above 25000 decisively. However if break happens below 24900, then we SELL 24900 call options.
4.BANK NIFTY OPEN BETWEEN 51075-51220: NO TRADE.
5.BANK NIFTY OPEN ABOVE 51218: Wait for a consolidation and break above 51220 decisively. we can SELL 51200 PUT OPTIONS in case of break out above 51220 decisively.
6.BANK NIFTY OPEN BELOW 51076: Wait for a consolidation and break above 51100 decisively. Then 51100 put options can be SOLD.
DISCLAIMER
1. I AM NOT A SEBI REGISTERED TRADER. THIS INFORMATION IS FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE CONSULT YOUR REGSITERED FINANCIAL ANALYST FOR ANY TRADE RELATED QUERY. THE AUTHOR OF THIS ARTICLE HOLDS NO LIABILITY FOR ANY TRADE TAKEN BY THE READER.
Search in ideas for "OPTIONS"
25th Oct ’23 - When will the 18880 level get broken? Nifty50Nifty Analysis
Recap from yesterday: “Since we are back at the 19310 levels, my point is — the next fall may be as deep as 18880 i.e 430pts ~ 2%. Nifty has no experience trading between these 2 zones earlier, so the supports should be equally powerless. I can mark the top of the candles as support zones, but they would be predictably weak (19190 & 18969).”
Nifty did not disappoint the Bears today. The start was right at the 19310 level and we managed to stay around that zone till 10.40. Honestly, I was also fearful that my bearish call may not work out today. For the last 1 to 2 years, Nifty has shown unbelievable resilience that will suck the soul out of any bear. Luckily, the fall started to accelerate once we broke from the 19310 laxman rekha i.e after 10.45.
We fell to a new swing low of 19074 intraday, levels last seen as of 30th June 2023. The bounce of 104pts was healthy and gave the bears quite a good premium to enter the 2nd level of shorts.
On the daily timeframe, the next possible candle that should appear should have its low touching the 18880 level (best case). If Nifty manages to pull this out, it will be an awesome November and December month getting lined up for the Bears. Since Nifty went up from 18880 to 19310 as 3 white soldiers, the return should be nothing less than 3 black crows. If we get that tomorrow - we are in for a treat, because the entire price action above 19310 right up to 20222 will lose its relevance. I wish to maintain my bearish stance for tomorrow’s expiry and hope to collect some good premiums. A noticeable change we saw today was the spike of India VIX to 12 levels. Although we cooled off and closed at 11.3125, the future holds promise.
Nifty 50 Analysis for 21Sept2023
Nifty 50 Options Trading Analysis for 21/09/23
Key Points:
Nifty 50 is likely to remain bearish in the short term, with support levels at 19980, 19800, and 19720.
Resistance levels are at 19954, 20045, and 20107.
If Nifty 50 breaks below 19866, more downside fall is possible.
If Nifty 50 breaks above 19954, it may face resistance at 20045 and 20107.
Trading Strategy:
Long: Traders can go long in Nifty 50 options if it breaks above 19954 with a stop loss below 19866.
Short: Traders can go short in Nifty 50 options if it breaks below 19866 with a stop loss above 19954.
Risk Management:
Traders should always use stop losses and risk management techniques when trading options. It is important to remember that options are a leveraged product and can result in significant losses if not traded carefully.
Disclaimer:
This is not a financial advice and traders should always do their own research before taking any trading decisions.
Additional Notes:
Nifty 50 is expiring on 21/09/23, so traders should be extra cautious while trading options on this day.
It is advisable to book profits early and avoid holding any overnight positions on the expiry day.
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 27 JUN 2023BN opened at 43804 and then had a flattish price move till 13.00 after which it propelled forward like a rocket. Interestingly Finnifty's chart (which we will discuss shortly) had more thrust compared to BN & N50.
The 470 pts rally we had from 13.05 to close was nothing short of remarkable. Initially the momentum was slow, but as soon as the short covering started we had a broad based rally. None of component stock closed in red today. SBIN up 1.62%, HDFCBK up 1.41%, AXIS up 1.32%, KOTAKBANK up 1.19%.
1hr TF
If you remember from yesterday's research report, BN was almost completing a double bottom pattern at the 43404 level. The last leg of W was fading, until we had the break through today.
What really happened today was the 44068 resistance was taken out, preceding that we had 2 strong green candles - most likely due to CE short covering.
Final close is some 100pts above the SR zone of 44068 which means there is every possibility BN could defend it for the expiry tomorrow.
Nifty- Another Doji today, will the Gap be filled tomorrow?Nifty made doji today as well....yesterday was a Doji candle too. Market traded in a rather small range. PCR at 0.97 too indicates uncertain view of option writers as to which way the market could move. Day showed strength of Nifty today as 986cr selling by FII was far more than 578cr buying by DIIs---and still the markets showed resilience and held on to the 17200 level.
The doji was formed above the 100EMA which is a critical support level. If the support is broken tomorrow - then we could see the Gap being filled and support at virgin CPR below.
CPR tomorrow is a single line---reflects the lack of direction--but also indicates that the markets could be trending tomorrow.
Let us then see how markets go tomorrow...
**For levels for tomorrows trade-- you may want to check my twitter handle @OptionsNo11 - Nifty & Bank Nifty levels - Vix , FII , CPR & options/ PCR data. The calculations are posted on this twitter handle @OptionsNo11 every night by 10pm.
Bank Nifty- Red candle closes below 200EMA, 8th day in a rowBank Nifty breached 35k in the closing minutes after a long consolidation during the day. PCR fell to 0.7 with option writers fearing more downside. This fall despite net 32cr buying by FII/DII today. CPR tomorrow is 60pts wide -open below CPR will probably result in CPR resistance and a sharp downtrend.
34456 is strong pivot support on the downside.
8th consecutive day Bank Nifty has closed below 200EMA. Let us see how it trades tomorrow...
**For levels for tomorrows trade-- you may want to check my twitter handle @OptionsNo11 -
Nifty & Bank Nifty levels - Vix , FII , CPR & options/ PCR data. The calculations are posted on this twitter handle @OptionsNo11 every night by 10pm.
Nifty- Doji above 100EMANifty closed on a aritical pivot 17213 with an indecisive doji candle today. With DII/FII net at 32cr, market remained neutral from the other participants as well. PCR at 1.09 dropped from yesterday-also indicates a neutral view of option writers as well.
If Nifty remains above 100EMA, net resistance is at 17375, if there is a gap down opening and 100EMA is breached, then 16800 is the next support.
CPR width is just 12 points tomorrow, so we can expect a trending market...probably with a downward bias.
Let us see how markets go tomorrow--there seems to be lack of momentum on either side.
**For levels for tomorrows trade-- you may want to check my twitter handle @OptionsNo11 -
Nifty & Bank Nifty levels - Vix , FII , CPR & options/ PCR data. The calculations are posted on this twitter handle @OptionsNo11 every night by around 10pm.
Bank Nifty- 7th consecutive close below 200EMABank Nifty made a red candle today, despite buying by both FIIs +207cr and DIIs +567cr --which indicates some worry.
PCR dropped today to 0.93 indicating reluctance of option writers on Put side.
CPR is almost a single line with almost no width--indicates a trending day. Will Bank Nifty find institutional buying support to breach the 200EMA or will we see some offloading and profit booking on the back of a higher close today---i would go with the latter--we should see some downward move. Lets see how markets go tomorrow.
**For levels for tomorrows trade-- you may want to check my twitter handle @OptionsNo11 - Nifty & Bank Nifty levels - Vix , FII , CPR & options/ PCR data. The calculations are posted on this twitter handle @OptionsNo11 every night by 10pm.
Nifty- green candle sits above 50EMANifty has made a green candle --breaching the 100EMA and 50EMA. FII +207cr and DII +567cr both net buyers today. This helped the Nifty go higher. Will FIIs be net buyers tomorrow also? Lot will depend on that.
The CPR will be extremely narrow---almost one single line---so likely to see a trending day tomorrow.
PCR increased to 1.26, on a contra view could see a correction soon. Nifty has also left a gap below the green candle made today.
Will Nifty be pulled down to fill the gap? let's wait and see tomorrow.
**For levels for tomorrows trade-- you may want to check my twitter handle @OptionsNo11 - Nifty & Bank Nifty levels - Vix , FII , CPR & options/ PCR data. The calculations are posted on this twitter handle @OptionsNo11 every night by 10pm.
Bank Nifty- 34384 critical supportBank Nifty closed with a green candle today taking support at 34384 pivot. Worry remains that it is still trading below the 200EMA.
FIIs sold for 1038cr while DII bought for 956cr today. So even without significant selling pressure form institutions, the markets couldnt break away upwards.
PCR is at 1.11 which shows sense of relief from put writers - contra view could be that we could see a downside move sooner.
So we could have bank nifty move sideways given that the CPR is much wider than we saw today.
**For levels for tomorrows trade-- you may want to check my twitter handle @OptionsNo11 - Nifty & Bank Nifty levels - Vix , FII , CPR & options/ PCR data. The calculations are posted on this twitter handle @OptionsNo11 every night by 10pm.
Nifty- Green candle did not breach 50EMA today...Nifty made a strong green candle today but fell short of the 50EMA. Last trading session, nifty had taken resistance at 50EMA and made a red candle.
Gap up opening tomorrow could mean Nifty taking resistance again. FIIs sold for 1038cr today and were almost matched by DIIs 956 cr buying.
PCR jumped above 1.16 indicating expectation of upwards momentum by option sellers. On a contra view, we could see a down move from the resistance.
**For levels for tomorrows trade-- you may want to check my twitter handle @OptionsNo11 - Nifty & Bank Nifty levels - Vix , FII , CPR & options/ PCR data. The calculations are posted on this twitter handle @OptionsNo11 every night by 10pm.
Bank Nifty- Takes support at 50EMA, more downside to come ?Bank Nifty has taken support at 50EMA this week. However the FII (-715cr) and DII(-43cr) both selling off on friday -indicates propensity to continue selling Which might mean more downside to come. A small pullback however cannot be ruled out. Let us see how markets go on the last trading week this calendar year...
For calculations on CPR and more data for tomorrows trade-- you may want to check my twitter handle @OptionsNo11 for more on Nifty & Bank Nifty levels for Monday 27Dec2021 - Vix , FII , CPR & options/ PCR data. The calculations are posted on this twitter handle @OptionsNo11 every night by 10 or morning by 830am -well before market hours.
Nifty- Bearish Engulfing candle faces resistance at 100EMANifty made a large red candle on friday...engulfing the doji made on thursday. Candle's high was resistance of 100EMA and closed at 17k which is a critical support.
PCR at 0.87 indicates that option writers are still more comfortable selling a call option.
FII -715cr and DIIs -43cr both sold on friday -its profit booking or cashing in before elections -whatever else the reason maybe--if this continues for another few sessions, then we might see some steep movement.
Next support levels below 17k are marked on the charts.
For calculations on CPR and more data for tomorrows trade-- you may want to check my twitter handle @OptionsNo11 for more on Nifty & Bank Nifty levels for Monday 27Dec2021 - Vix , FII , CPR & options/ PCR data. The calculations are posted on this twitter handle @OptionsNo11 every night by 10 or morning by 830am -well before market hours.
Bank Nifty- Filled Gap, major resistance at 200EMABank nifty (almost) filled the Gap. Halted at the 200EMA resistance.
This is the fourth consecutive daily candle formed below the 200EMA. The retracement might be over and we could now witness the weakness come back.
The PCR for 30th expiry at 0.77 still shows reluctance from option writers to place bets on put side.
FII sold just 272cr compared to 1196cr buying by DIIs--and yet we saw a red candle...indicaates quite widespread expectation of more correction -or profit booking.
Had FIIs sold for 2000-3000cr or thereabouts, would we have seen a much steeper slide & a much longer red candle?
CPR is extremely narrow tomorrow and we could see a trending market.
For calculations on CPR and more data for tomorrows trade-- you may want to check my twitter handle @OptionsNo11 for more on Nifty & Bank Nifty levels for Friday 24Dec2021 - Vix , FII , CPR & options/ PCR data. The calculations are posted on this twitter handle @OptionsNo11 every night by 10 or morning by 830am -well before market hours.
26000 LEVELS shall be a potential TOP for 2025Market Outlook for 2025: A Cautious Approach
Based on my analysis, the current market level around 26,000 appears to be topping out, and I am not particularly optimistic about a sustained upward trend. My overall outlook for 2025 is bearish, as I anticipate a challenging and potentially painful year for equities. Therefore, I am adopting a defensive approach in my trading and investment strategy.
Portfolio Strategy
Given the bearish outlook, I am allocating only 10-15% of my portfolio to selective, high-conviction stocks. The remaining portion will be held in cash or low-risk instruments to minimize exposure to potential market downturns. This conservative strategy ensures that I have sufficient liquidity to take advantage of opportunities if and when the market provides better entry points.
Key Levels to Watch
My views will remain bearish unless the market decisively breaks above the 25,000 level, which I see as a crucial threshold. Until such a breakout occurs, I prefer to stay cautious and avoid aggressive long positions. Should the market breach this level with strong momentum, I will reconsider my stance and potentially increase my exposure.
Risk Management
In addition to selective buying, I am considering hedging strategies to further protect the portfolio. These may include:
Options: Using put options to hedge against downside risk.
Inverse ETFs: Gaining exposure to inverse ETFs as a way to profit from potential declines.
By maintaining a disciplined approach, focusing on capital preservation, and being selective in stock picking, I aim to navigate the expected volatility in 2025 effectively.
---
This strategy is subject to change as market conditions evolve, but for now, caution remains my guiding principle.
31Oct 2024 - Nifty Predictions (Next Trading Day) (Weekly ExpiryIndex Chart Information:
Index: NIFTY 50
Date: October 30, 2024
Time Frames: Daily (D), Weekly (W), Monthly (M)
Expected Support and Resistance Levels for the Next Trading Day:
Based on the closing price of 24340.85, here are the support and resistance levels derived from chart analysis:
Support Level 1 24000
Support Level 2 23850
Resistance Level 1 24500
Resistance Level 2 24700
Market Scenario for the Next Trading Day:
Market Opening Likely Gap Up
Expected Movement Bullish
Specifics Start bullish and then range-bound
Options Strategies and Specific Strikes for the Next Trading Day:
To provide a clear approach based on the support and resistance established:
Option Type Strike Price Strategy
Calls 24500 Buy Call
Puts 24000 Buy Put
Calendar Spread Strategy:
For building a calendar spread:
Duration Strike Price Comment
Daily 24300 Near current price for short-term trades
Weekly 24500 Captures next week’s movement
Monthly 24700 Long-term strategy for expected price increase
Trading Recommendations on ATM, ITM, and OTM Options:
Trade Type Recommendation Notes
ATM Trade Good volatility; ideal for quick moves
ITM Consider Trading Less risk, higher premium cost
OTM Watch Only Higher potential reward but very risky
This revised response aligns with the closing market price of 24340.85 and allows you to make informed decisions based on the technical analysis of the charts provided. If further adjustments are needed or additional insights are required, feel free to ask!
27th Sep 2024 - Nifty went up 356pts ~ 1.38%, dream run continueNifty Stance Bullish ️⬆️
The dream run continues, Nifty goes up 356pts ~ 1.38% this week. Seems like there is nothing that can stop this bull run. I guess, the bull market will only end until the last of the bears turn bullish.
Even though we closed slightly red on Friday, the call options premiums were pricing further upside, and the put options decayed so badly that ensured the short sellers got nothing. The current dream run started on 16th Aug and we are up 1934pts ~ 7.98%. Nifty has been a huge wealth creator for investors.
30th Sep 2024 will be the most critical day in the history of futures and options. After its meeting, SEBI will decide what the revised margins for options trading will be. Meanwhile, the revised STT and charges go live on October 1st.
Our stance remains bullish until 25979 is broken, below which we will go neutral.
26 Sep 2024 - Bank Nifty Predictions (Next Day Trading).Analysis Based on Provided Charts only.
1. Index Chart, Date, and Time Frames
Index: Nifty Bank Index (Bank Nifty)
Date: September 25, 2024
Time Frames: Daily, Weekly, Monthly, and 5-minute charts
2. Support and Resistance Levels for the Next Trading Day
Support Levels:
Daily: 53,500
Weekly: 52,500
Monthly: 51,000
Resistance Levels:
Daily: 54,500
Weekly: 55,000
Monthly: 56,000
3. Market Scenario for the Next Trading Day
Morning Slight Gap Up Bullish
Midday Flat Range-bound
Afternoon Slight Gap Down Bearish
End of Day Flat Range-bound
4. Specific Strategies for the Next Trading Day
Bullish Opening: Buy ATM Call options near the support level of 53,500.
Range-bound Midday: Consider an Iron Condor strategy with strikes at 53,500 (Put) and 54,500 (Call).
Bearish Afternoon : Buy ATM Put options if the price approaches the resistance level of 54,500.
5a. Calendar Spread Strategy
Daily Chart: Buy 54,000 Call (near ATM) and Sell 54,500 Call (slightly OTM).
Weekly Chart: Buy 53,500 Put (near ATM) and Sell 53,000 Put (slightly ITM).
Monthly Chart: Buy 54,000 Call (near ATM) and Sell 55,000 Call (OTM).
5b. Daily, Weekly, and Monthly Trends
Daily Bullish
Weekly Bullish
Monthly Bullish
6. Profitability in ATM, ITM, or OTM
ATM Trade Morning
ITM Trade Afternoon
OTM Don't Trade Entire Day
Summary
Based on the chart analysis, the market is expected to open slightly gap up and be bullish in the morning, range-bound during midday, and slightly bearish in the afternoon. As an options buyer, focus on ATM and ITM options for the best profitability, and avoid trading OTM options. Consider specific strategies like buying ATM Calls in the morning and ATM Puts in the afternoon, and use calendar spreads for a balanced approach.
Disclaimer: Do Manager your Risk and Money management, Do not Forget to PUT STOP LOSS.
Users If you need any specific and useful information do comments below.
Banknifty Trend Report Hello Everyone 👋
Today Bank-Nifty Try to Break High if Bank-nifty Break High so we need to cut our Down position.
Give me Some Time Today We upload Some Levels So you Can I Easily Identify Trend.
1.Bullish Shark Harmonic Pattern: The BANK-NIFTY chart currently showcases a Bullish Shark Harmonic Pattern forming within a rising parallel channel. This pattern suggests a potential bullish move, provided that the price holds above the crucial level of 50,149. That level should act as a strict stop loss.
2.Recent Trend: On August 14, there was a trending move. The price consolidated in the morning for a few hours and then started to fall. Currently, the price is at a support level, and it can either move up or continue to fall. The trend direction is still deciding, so keep an eye on it.
3.Long-Term Investment Considerations: If you’re considering long-term investment in the banking sector, consider Bank Nifty ETFs. These exchange-traded funds offer easy diversification and flexibility.